Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Friday - August 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (2/5/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/6/1)-(2/5/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/6/1)-(2/5/6/1)-(2/5/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/6/1)-(1/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/5/6/1)-(1/3)-(7/3/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ELP-2   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/3)-(7/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/3)-(7/3/6)-(3/1/4/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ELP-3   WIN (7/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/3/6)-(7/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/3/6)-(7/3/6)-(7/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/3/6)-(3/1/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/3/6)-(3/1/4/7)-(4/6/2/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-4   WIN (3/1/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/4/7)-(3/1/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/4/7)-(3/1/4/7)-(3/1/4/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1/4/7)-(4/6/2/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4/7)-(4/6/2/3)-(3/10/6/4/9) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-5   WIN (4/6/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/2/3)-(4/6/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/2/3)-(4/6/2/3)-(4/6/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/6/2/3)-(3/10/6/4/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/6/2/3)-(3/10/6/4/9)-(3/12/10/2/11) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-6   WIN (3/10/6/4/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/10/6/4/9)-(3/10/6/4/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/10/6/4/9)-(3/10/6/4/9)-(3/10/6/4/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/10/6/4/9)-(3/12/10/2/11) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (3/10/6/4/9)-(3/12/10/2/11)-(3/2/6/5) 100 $1.00 $300 
ELP-7   WIN (3/12/10/2/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/12/10/2/11)-(3/12/10/2/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/12/10/2/11)-(3/12/10/2/11)-(3/12/10/2/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/12/10/2/11)-(3/2/6/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/12/10/2/11)-(3/2/6/5)-(10/5/1/3/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-8   WIN (3/2/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/6/5)-(3/2/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/6/5)-(3/2/6/5)-(3/2/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/2/6/5)-(10/5/1/3/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (10/5/1/3/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/5/1/3/2)-(10/5/1/3/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/5/1/3/2)-(10/5/1/3/2)-(10/5/1/3/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/11/2023 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAWKS CREEK         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  ACACIO Jun10         (thomas jonat)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 1.80 57% 0.70    
3  MASTER SWITCH Jul15         (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 120 4.50    
4  SAVE THE KING         (davis chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 8.00    
5  MIDNIGHT TIL DAWN         (o'neill d)TORRES A 120 3.00 16% 5.20    
6  BAYTOWN PARFAIT Jun04 Apr13       (ramirez m)BEJARANO R 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  BOLD FORCE Jun24         (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 120 10.00    
 
ELP-2   08/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($40K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ON A SPREE Jun18 Apr29 Mar24 Mar11 Feb09 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 1.40 37% 1.70    
SCR  TAPAGE Jul30 Jul02 Jun18 May13 Mar04 (cano muno)CHUAN MARTIN 123 5.00    
3  SUGOI Jun18 Mar25 Mar04 Jan28 Oct21 (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 123 2.00 22% 3.60    
4  SHORTLIST Jun25 Jun02 Apr16 Mar16 Dec15 (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 123 3.50    
SCR  MOHAAFETH May22 May06 Jan21 Dec11 Nov27 (trujillo elvis)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 12.00    
 
ELP-3   08/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 2 F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NAUGHTY MISS Jul16 Jun25       (roberson dennis)LANERIE J 119 2.50    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of INCLUDING by INCLUDE)
2  BARBRATINA         (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of SALLY RIDE by TAPIT)
3  WEE BIT O MISCHIEF Jul16 Jun10       (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 3.50 10% 8.70    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of LA CANELA by CONGRATS)
4  CHOCTAW GRACE         (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of SARAH HER HIGHNESS by MILWAUKEE BREW)
SCR  LITTLE MUSIC Jul21 Jul01 Jun12 May19 Apr26 (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 119 15.00    
  (by CARPE DIEM (FR) out of FROZEN MUSIC by LANGFUHR)
6  AARALYN         (hiles jeff)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of WAR OFFICE by WAR FRONT)
7  UP ON THE EDGE Jul16         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 2.00 62% 0.60    
  (by UPSTART out of GOLD EDGE by EDDINGTON)
 
ELP-4   08/11/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIX MISSIONS Jul21 Jun22 May14 Oct15 Sep03 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00 27% 2.70    
2  FIRST PLAYER Jul23 Jul02       (howard nei)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
3  SENSICAL Jul31 Jun24 May11     (engler jeff)LANERIE J 118 3.50 31% 2.30    
4  GO CATS Jun29 Apr22 Mar11     (davis christo)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 21% 3.80    
SCR  VIOLENT THUNDER         (barkley jason)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00    
6  CAIRO'S GHOST         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
7  QAADER Jul05 Jun07 May28 Apr27 Mar25 (trujillo elvis)MACHADO LUAN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  SOUTHERN CRUSH Jul21 Jan01 Dec02 Oct23   (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 5.00    
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA Aug01 May28 May04     (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 124 4.50    
 
ELP-5   08/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIVINE GRACE Jul08 Jun07 May12 Jan24 Dec11 (ewing michael)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50    
2  GET BY Jul08 Jun15 May19 Apr19 Mar31 (cano mun)DELCID MARLON 114 4.00 22% 3.60    
3  ELEGANT MOVES         (pittman bonn)CALLEJA ANDRES 109 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  SISTER KISSES         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.00 26% 2.90    
SCR  SHACKLED BY LUST May12 Mar30 Jul21 Jun19   (hancock a)BAYS BROOKE 109 12.00    
6  WITCH OF NOVEMBER Jun15 May19 Apr01 Mar15   (mccarthy micha)CHUAN MARTIN 119 2.50 24% 3.10    
7  I GOTTA BOLT Jul31 Jul08 Jun15 Oct05 Sep28 (hancock a)LANERIE J 119 8.00    
8  ISABEL DE CLARE Jul21 Jul03 Jun15 Jun02 Feb04 (seglin e)AYALA ISAIAS 124 20.00    
 
ELP-6   08/11/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WESTERN COMMAND Jun18 May20 Mar16 Feb02 Nov17 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
2  GOOD HEART Jun29 Jun15 Apr28 Mar04 Nov26 (walsh bre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
3  COUNTERSTRIKE Jun23 May19 Mar10 Feb24 Jan28 (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 122 3.00 47% 1.10    
4  CUSTOM BOBBY'S Jul15 Jun16 Nov24 Sep03 Jul31 (calhoun willi)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  GHENT Jun20 Mar09 Feb10 Dec28 Oct09 (hamilton s)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
6  MUMAYAZ Apr16 Feb25 Jan06 Nov16 Oct16 (peitz c)GRAHAM J 122 8.00 11% 8.30    
7  ZARTOWNIS Jul15 May23 Jul22 Mar26   (devaux ch)TORRES A 122 8.00    
8  SANTORINI Jun01 Mar25 Mar04 Jan21 Dec09 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 118 8.00    
9  HOCUS (GB) Jun17 May21 Apr16     (thompson mich)CANNON DECLAN 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  B D VALESKI Jun23 May19 Apr21 Mar30 Mar10 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 16% 5.20    
 
ELP-7   08/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PALM TREE         (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of DESERT GAZELLE by SMART STRIKE)
2  JACK IS BACK         (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of CRUMBS OF COMFORT by PULPIT)
3  CATS BY FIVE         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 4.00 26% 2.90    
  (by AUDIBLE out of CATTICUS by ATTICUS)
4  E J WON THE CUP         (o'neill doug)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of FIRSTHAND REPORT by BLAME)
5  PENROD         (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
  (by UPSTART out of PROUD PEARL by PROUD CITIZEN)
6  DREAM TIME         (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of TIZ DA BIZ by TIZWAY)
7  NOTORIOUS SIXOHTWO         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of MY LIL SHAMROCK by CITY ZIP)
8  NEW SPELL         (simms jr)NAVAS YOEL 112 15.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of BROKEN SPELL by BROKEN VOW)
9  CAJUN FOOL         (ramirez lu)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
  (by CAJUN BREEZE out of LAGO LINDO by HIGH COTTON)
10  MO RHODES         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 5.00 6% 15.90    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of MO D'AMOUR by UNCLE MO)
11  MR. LEASURE         (o'neill doug)LANERIE J 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of MYSTERIOUSLY by TIZNOW)
12  IRIDESCENT         (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 119 3.00 25% 3.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of RESOLU by SMART STRIKE)
 
ELP-8   08/11/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUSIC STREET May27 May05 Nov20 Oct23 Sep25 (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 122 10.00    
2  AALIYAH EZRI Jul14 Jun21 May07 Dec30 Oct27 (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 6.00 16% 5.40    
3  FLASHY GEM Jun21 May05 Mar25 Feb16 Aug14 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 1.20 40% 1.50    
4  REAGAN'S DECISION Jul14 Oct20 Aug27 Jul09 May06 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00    
5  JUMP INTO THE FIRE May27 May05 Apr21 Jun29 Jun05 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00 9% 10.70    
6  MANUCA (BRZ) May18         (lobo paul)TORRES A 122 4.50 9% 9.90    
7  SHE'S GONE Jul01 May18 Apr22 Feb04 Nov25 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00    
 
ELP-9   08/11/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONT MERCOU Feb03 Jan06       (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SLEWFOUNDMONEY by SEEKING THE GOLD)
2  MISTER MOSCATO         (dunn stephen )CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of COMMANDARIA by SMART STRIKE)
3  COMMAND' ORO         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of C. S. INCHARGE by TAKE CHARGE INDY)
4  FOXTROTANNA Jul13         (wojczynski )PETERSON FERRIN 124 30.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of FOXY CLEO by WHYWHYWHY)
5  CUORE SACRO Jul14 May21 Aug19     (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 3.00 16% 5.30    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BACCHANAL LADY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
6  BAYOU SPIRIT Jul14 May27       (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of BEAUTIFUL DANIELE by A.P. INDY)
7  KING OF KENTUCKY Jul21 Jun22 May21 Apr28 Mar25 (house gary)GILLIGAN JACK 119 30.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of ROYAL ANCESTRY by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  JOINT VENTURE Apr20 Feb25 Dec26 Oct15 Sep24 (flint bernard )CHUAN MARTIN 119 20.00    
  (by MIZZEN MAST out of ABBEYVILLE MISS by GRAND SLAM)
9  MOUNT KISCO Jul22 Oct22 Sep22 Aug21 Aug07 (howell jessi)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 15.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of PRINCESS KAREN by STAY THIRSTY)
10  BIRTHDAY MUNNINGS Jul22 Nov27 Oct30 Sep24 Aug12 (walsh p)BEJARANO R 119 2.50 60% 0.70    
  (by MUNNINGS out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  J J'S JOKER Feb18 Jan21 Dec10 Oct30   (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of CABBAGE KEY by A.P. INDY)
12  MY ROAD Nov19 Sep20 Aug21     (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 124 20.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of LATEST THINKING by TALE OF THE CAT)
SCR  PASS LINE Jul22 Jul02 Jun15     (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50    
  (by STRAIGHT LINE out of OVER AGAIN by SHARP HUMOR)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.