Handicappers' Race Results
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Ellis Park
Sunday - July 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
ELP-1   Win (1/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $25.58 $25.58 19.58
ELP-2   Win (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $3.52 $3.52  
ELP-3   Win (9/4/5/3/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 5 1 1 $11.68 $11.68 1.68
ELP-4   Win (1/9/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $4.04 $4.04  
ELP-5   Win (3/1/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $22.92 $22.92 14.92
ELP-6   Win (7/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 1 $2.42 $2.42  
ELP-7   Win (6/5/1/3/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 6 1 1 $5.20 $5.20  
ELP-8   Win (3/5/7/4/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 3 1 1 $9.74 $9.74  
ELP-9   Win (9/4/3/11/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 4 1 1 $10.94 $10.94 0.94
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   07/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:234 :471 1:124 1:254   1:392   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  STEEL RACER 5 5 31 31 2nk 1nk 11¼ (medina rober)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00 19% 4.20 11.79 W
2  OVERINDULGENCE 2 1 1½ 1nk 1nk 2nk 21¼ (casse w)CHUAN MARTIN 118 10.00 7.13  
3  ABBREVIATION 3 4 53 52¾ 42 35 38¾ (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 20% 3.90 3.61 S
4  EVIE'S ENCORE 4 3 2½ 2nk 31 45¼ 411¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 5.44  
1  SHE'S MAGIC 1 2 42½ 42½ 54 57¼ 513½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 1.80 26% 2.80 0.56  
SCR  NO GUILT               (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 2.00    
 
ELP-2   07/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:23 :461 1:11 1:242   1:384   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  MERCY WARREN 3 1 1½ 11½ 1nk 12½ 13½ (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.00 38% 1.70 0.76 W
2  GUANA CAY 2 5 45½ 42 34 34½ 23½ (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 3.00 2.79  
6  MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT 5 4 33 32 2nk 22½ 34¾ (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00 16% 5.40 7.32 S
1  LA TOURISTA 1 3 510½ 57 55¼ 47½ 49 (vasquez sr)BEJARANO R 122 8.00 7.73  
4  TOO PRETTY 4 2 2½ 21½ 44¼ 59 515¼ (peitz c)TORRES A 122 4.50 16% 5.10 5.75  
SCR  MUSIC AMORE               (vasquez german )CANNON DECLAN 122 6.00    
SCR  WATERS OF MEROM               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00    
 
ELP-3   07/23/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:251 :502 1:153 1:273   1:391   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  FEDERALISM 5 6 75 64 61½ 1nk 11¾ (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50 22% 3.50 4.84 W
2  PHAROAH'S WINE 2 1 1½ 11 1nk 2nk 21¾ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00 1.49 P
6  RACONTEUSE 6 3 2½ 21 2nk 31 32¾ (wilkes r)BEJARANO R 119 6.00 4.76  
9  YOU'RE KITTEN ME 9 5 53 53½ 51¼ 41¼ 43½ (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 33% 2.00 6.73  
4  GOLD DEL MAR 4 2 64 74½ 73 53¼ 56½ (bahena ism)RODRIGUEZ A 114 5.00 24% 3.20 8.83  
1  MAYBE MAGIC 1 8 31½ 32 41¼ 64¾ 68 (ortiz john )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 19.29  
8  TIANMA 8 4 42 42½ 3.2 74¾ 78 (o'neill doug)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 14.72  
7  PURE CONNECTION 7 7 107¼ 97½ 95 85¾ 89½ (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 12.00 19.40  
10  PANTHERA 10 10 87 87 85 96¼ 99¾ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00 20.28  
3  SCARE 3 9 97 109½ 1013 1022¼ 1046¾ (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 5% 19.00 36.85  
 
ELP-4   07/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:224 :454 :583     1:052   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BALTA 1 2 11 11½   12½ 12¼ (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 45% 1.20 1.02 W
9  PONCE DE LEON 8 6 43 33½   32½ 22¼ (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 2.00 31% 2.30 1.50 P
7  FLOTATION STATION 6 1 21 21½   22½ 33 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00 5% 19.00 20.54 S
3  STOKE THE FIRE 3 4 66 610½   511¾ 411¾ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 ★ 8.61  
8  ONE SHARP TIZ 7 3 32 45   411½ 511¾ (engler jef)RODRIGUEZ A 114 12.00 48.20  
2  GREERS FERRY 2 8 78 711½   714¼ 615½ (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00 5% 19.00 30.94  
4  SABRES 4 5 56 59½   613¾ 716½ (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 116 15.00 9.78  
6  TIZZY INDY 5 7 88¼ 812   819¼ 828½ (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 119 15.00 39.43  
SCR  HENRO               (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
 
ELP-5   07/23/2023 5280ft TURF RC9 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:244 1:12 1:242     1:36   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  IDRATHERBEBLESSED 3 2 44½ 44 52½ 11 12 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 51% 1.00 10.46 W
1  ARABIAN PRINCE 1 8 88½ 88 74 52 22 (barnett bobby)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 3.00 16% 5.40 1.06 P
2  MOON CAT 2 1 76½ 66 84½ 63 33¼ (davis christoph)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00 7.51  
5  TIZ OF THEE 5 5 56 54½ 31½ 42 45¼ (hancock dana)MIRANDA ROGELIO 123 10.00 11% 7.80 9.26  
8  ROYAL VICKY 8 4 12½ 13 11 21 55¼ (lobo h)RAMOS D 118 6.00 7.08 DQ↓7
4  DEEP STATE 4 6 66½ 76 62½ 73¼ 66¾ (combs bentley)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 3.50 7.48  
6  THREE ON THE TREE 6 7 22½ 23 21 31½ 78¾ (lovell mich)TORRES A 118 10.00 5% 19.00 6.25  
7  JUDO 7 3 34 33½ 42 87¼ 817 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 20.58  
SCR  SECRET POCKET               (peitz c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00    
 
ELP-6   07/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Twin Bridges Purse ($125K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:23 :46 :58     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  WICKED HALO 5 1 31½ 21   2nk 11¼ (asmussen st)TORRES A 124 1.00 54% 0.90 0.21 W
6  NON VIOLENCE 4 3 2½ 11   1nk 21¼ (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 126 8.00 5.78  
3  LAST LEAF 2 4 42½ 42½   3.2 32¼ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 122 3.00 16% 5.40 6.80 S
5  DEALING JUSTICE 3 2 1½ 32   41¾ 47¾ (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 122 15.00 24.97  
1  TAP DANCE FEVER 1 5 54 54½   54¼ 59¾ (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00 8% 12.10 12.94  
SCR  GUNNING               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 126 6.00    
SCR  SPEEDOMETER               (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 15.00    
 
ELP-7   07/23/2023 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:243 :492 1:124 1:372   1:494   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  MISREAD 6 6 33 34 34 22 1nk (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 123 2.00 41% 1.50 1.60 W
3  FIDDLE 3 2 11½ 11 1½ 12 2nk (meah m)MACHADO LUAN 123 6.00 5% 17.30 5.71 P
8  LUCY'S CAKES FLY 8 8 65 67 67 34 31¼ (stuart she)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00 5% 19.00 21.77 S
2  THREE COINS 2 3 87 78½ 77½ 55 43¼ (hancock a)MORALES EDGAR 123 30.00 64.10  
9  UNSTABLE PRINCESS 9 9 97½ 911 99¾ 67 55½ (santamaria )TORRES A 118 20.00 18.61  
5  EXIT SOUL 5 4 21½ 21 2½ 45 66¾ (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 123 3.00 18% 4.50 2.85  
7  MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN 7 7 76½ 89½ 89½ 99½ 77¾ (faircloth aveo)CALLEJA ANDRES 113 30.00 57.21  
4  LOVED REIKO 4 5 54½ 55 55½ 78 88 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 123 5.00 7.61  
1  CLEVER JOKE 1 1 43½ 45 45½ 88½ 98¾ (catalano wa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 13% 6.40 4.63  
SCR  MAGIC BUBBLES               (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 4.50    
 
ELP-8   07/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:234 :47 1:111 1:24   1:37   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  PRESIDENTIAL 3 4 63¾ 62¾ 31 1nk 11 (asmussen st)TORRES A 122 3.00 32% 2.10 3.87 W
8  KING'S OVATION 8 5 21 2nk 41½ 41¼ 21 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00 10.50  
6  ROMAN CENTURIAN 6 10 97¾ 97¼ 63½ 52¾ 31½ (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 10.00 8% 11.00 5.72 S
2  DIGITAL 2 2 107¾ 108¼ 96 31 41½ (hiles rick)LANERIE J 122 15.00 25.16  
12  DETERMINEDLY 11 7 52¼ 41¾ 11 2nk 52½ (casse mark)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 6.25  
9  MAJOR FED 9 8 86¾ 86¾ 107 73¾ 64¾ (foley greg)GRAHAM J 122 15.00 18.59  
7  ALLEGE 7 6 32 51¾ 52½ 84¼ 75½ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 8.00 11% 7.90 7.16  
5  HEARTBREAKER 5 3 11 1nk 21 63¾ 810¾ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 126 6.00 11% 7.80 6.27  
10  O P FIRECRACKER 10 9 75¾ 75¾ 85½ 96¼ 911¼ (medina robert)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 25.00 59.87  
4  TIWANAKU 4 11 119¾ 118½ 117¼ 107¾ 1012¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 124 8.00 11% 8.00 3.25  
1  MR. THUNDERSTRUCK 1 1 42 31½ 74 119¾ 1119½ (von donni)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 20.00 29.77  
SCR  LIFE IS HARD               (divito james)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 15.00    
 
ELP-9   07/23/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:23 :463 1:113 1:37   1:482   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  BABA VOSS 4 9 97¼ 97¾ 84¼ 22 1½ (walsh p)BEJARANO R 118 3.50 22% 3.50 4.47 W
3  NOISES OFF 3 1 33 33½ 32 12 2½ (lobo paulo )TORRES A 118 5.00 18% 4.60 3.71 P
2  BRIGADE COMMANDER 2 3 75¾ 55½ 63½ 43½ 39 (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 9.06  
5  ROYAL SALUTE 5 10 1012¼ 1014¾ 95¾ 75½ 410¾ (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 6.00 5.04  
9  MY BOY TONY 9 8 85¾ 86¼ 53 54½ 510¾ (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 25% 3.00 3.15  
12  ORBI ONE 12 6 2½ 21½ 2½ 32½ 611 (ortiz john )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 14.03  
1  FIRST PLAYER 1 4 65½ 76¼ 73¾ 97¼ 713¾ (howard j)MORALES EDGAR 118 25.00 78.03  
11  HOGSLAYERS R I P 11 7 1½ 11½ 1½ 65½ 814 (pessin neil )HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00 10% 9.00 8.73  
10  STORMIN MIDNIGHT 10 11 1114¾ 1118¾ 117¾ 87 914 (oliver victoria)CHUAN MARTIN 118 20.00 5% 19.00 60.68  
7  GORDY'S LABEL 7 12 1216¾ 1219 127¾ 109¾ 1016¾ (stall m)LANERIE J 118 15.00 17.48  
6  UNWRAPPED 6 2 44 66 107¼ 1215¼ 1128½ (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 30.00 71.43  
8  SIR ROCK 8 5 54 43½ 42 1115¼ 1229¾ (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 118 25.00 20.67  
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA               (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 124 6.00    
SCR  HONOR GOLD               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
SCR  QUALIFIED               (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
SCR  TESTIMONY TIME               (brumley william )MACHADO LUAN 124 50.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.