Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - July 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (1/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/5)-(1/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/5)-(1/3/5)-(1/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/5)-(3/4/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/3/5)-(3/4/6)-(9/4/5/2/3) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
ELP-2   WIN (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/6)-(3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/6)-(9/4/5/2/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/4/6)-(9/4/5/2/3)-(1/9/2/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-3   WIN (9/4/5/2/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/4/5/2/3)-(9/4/5/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/4/5/2/3)-(9/4/5/2/3)-(9/4/5/2/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/4/5/2/3)-(1/9/2/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/4/5/2/3)-(1/9/2/7)-(3/1/5/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-4   WIN (1/9/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/9/2/7)-(1/9/3/2/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/9/2/7)-(1/9/3/2/7)-(1/9/3/2/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/9/2/7)-(3/1/5/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/9/2/7)-(3/1/5/6)-(7/3/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-5   WIN (3/1/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/5/6)-(3/1/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/5/6)-(3/1/5/6)-(3/1/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1/5/6)-(7/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/1/5/6)-(7/3/1)-(6/5/1/3/8) 60 $1.00 $180 
ELP-6   WIN (7/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/3/1)-(7/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/3/1)-(7/3/1)-(7/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/3/1)-(6/5/1/3/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/3/1)-(6/5/1/3/8)-(3/5/7/4/6) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ELP-7   WIN (6/5/1/3/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/5/1/3/8)-(6/5/1/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/5/1/3/8)-(6/5/1/3/8)-(6/5/1/3/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/5/1/3/8)-(3/5/7/4/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (6/5/1/3/8)-(3/5/7/4/6)-(9/4/3/11/10) 125 $1.00 $125 
ELP-8   WIN (3/5/7/4/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/5/7/4/6)-(3/5/7/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/5/7/4/6)-(3/5/7/4/6)-(3/5/7/4/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/5/7/4/6)-(9/4/3/11/10) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
ELP-9   WIN (9/4/3/11/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/4/3/11/10)-(9/4/3/11/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/4/3/11/10)-(9/4/3/11/10)-(9/4/3/11/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHE'S MAGIC Jun03 Apr29 Mar26 Sep18   (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 1.80 26% 2.80    
2  OVERINDULGENCE Jun11         (casse w)CHUAN MARTIN 118 10.00    
3  ABBREVIATION Jun30 May29 Apr29 Apr07 Feb24 (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 20% 3.90    
4  EVIE'S ENCORE Jun10 May13       (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
5  STEEL RACER Jun29 Jun11 Sep29     (medina rob)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00 19% 4.20    
SCR  NO GUILT Jun24 Jun03 May05 Mar17 Feb24 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 2.00    
 
ELP-2   07/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LA TOURISTA Jul07 Jun18 May28 May18 Apr22 (vasquez s)BEJARANO R 122 8.00    
2  GUANA CAY Jun11 May27 May05 Mar24 Feb25 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 3.00    
3  MERCY WARREN Jun30 Feb25 Jan01 Nov27 Oct29 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.00 38% 1.70    
4  TOO PRETTY Jul01 May04 Mar17 Mar04 Feb03 (peitz dan)TORRES A 122 4.50 16% 5.10    
SCR  WATERS OF MEROM May02 Mar17 Feb03 Jan25 Dec14 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00    
6  MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT Jun23 Jun11 May14 Apr29 Apr12 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00 16% 5.40    
SCR  MUSIC AMORE Jul01 May27 May14 May02 Mar02 (vasquez germa)CANNON DECLAN 122 6.00    
 
ELP-3   07/23/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAYBE MAGIC         (ortiz joh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of ITERATION by WILD AGAIN)
2  PHAROAH'S WINE Jun30         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of SWEEPING PADDY by PADDY O'PRADO)
3  SCARE         (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of BARTOLETTA by ARCH)
4  GOLD DEL MAR Jun29         (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 114 5.00 24% 3.20    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of DEL MAR BABE by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
5  FEDERALISM         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50 22% 3.50    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of ANOTHER DAY OF SUN by ARCH)
6  RACONTEUSE Jun23         (wilkes r)BEJARANO R 119 6.00    
  (by MITOLE out of FREE REIN by UNBRIDLED)
7  PURE CONNECTION Jun16         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by CONNECT out of CARINHOSA by SKY MESA)
8  TIANMA         (o'neill doug)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of HOME RULE by EMPIRE MAKER)
9  YOU'RE KITTEN ME Jun29 Jun15 May11     (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 33% 2.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of DUPLICATE KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
10  PANTHERA         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of GORGELICIOUS by MORE THAN READY)
 
ELP-4   07/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BALTA Jun17         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 45% 1.20    
  (by MUNNINGS out of LAQUESTA by LEMON DROP KID)
2  GREERS FERRY         (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of DEE DEE BERTIE by BLUEGRASS CAT)
3  STOKE THE FIRE         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 ★    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of ON FIRE BABY by SMOKE GLACKEN)
4  SABRES         (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 116 15.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of POTESTA by MACHO UNO)
SCR  HENRO         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of STREET MINSTREL by STREET CRY (IRE))
6  TIZZY INDY         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 15.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of TIZZY FEVER by TIZNOW)
7  FLOTATION STATION         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of CHRISTINA'S COMET by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
8  ONE SHARP TIZ         (engler j)RODRIGUEZ A 114 12.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of KEMLY by TIZNOW)
9  PONCE DE LEON Jun15         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 2.00 31% 2.30    
  (by COPPER BULLET out of ST. JOHN'S RIVER by INCLUDE)
 
ELP-5   07/23/2023 5280ft TURF RC9 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARABIAN PRINCE Jun23 May19 Apr26 Feb03 Jan15 (barnett bob)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 3.00 16% 5.40    
2  MOON CAT Jul08 May17 Apr21 Mar11 Feb04 (davis christo)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00    
3  IDRATHERBEBLESSED Jun29 Jun11 May28 Apr26 Mar12 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 51% 1.00    
4  DEEP STATE Dec16 Nov25 Oct27 Sep28 Sep08 (combs bentley)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 3.50    
5  TIZ OF THEE Jun10 Mar17 Feb09 Jan07 Nov03 (hancock dan)MIRANDA ROGELIO 123 10.00 11% 7.80    
6  THREE ON THE TREE Jun17 Apr15 Mar19 Jan28 Jan21 (lovell mi)TORRES A 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  JUDO Jun29 May20 Apr16 Mar09 Jan14 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
8  ROYAL VICKY May30 May09 Mar10 Feb17 Jan13 (lobo h)RAMOS D 118 6.00    
SCR  SECRET POCKET Jun29 Jun02 Apr29 Mar24 Feb01 (peitz dan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00    
 
ELP-6   07/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Twin Bridges Purse ($125K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAP DANCE FEVER May29 Apr29 Mar11 Feb18 Jan14 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00 8% 12.10    
  (by TAPITURE out of IT'S HEIDI'S DANCE by GREEN DANCER)
SCR  GUNNING May20 Apr29 Mar31 Mar09 Sep24 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 126 6.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of PUCA by BIG BROWN)
3  LAST LEAF May29 Apr29 Mar11 Jan28 Dec03 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 122 3.00 16% 5.40    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of MY MISS KALLIE by PADDY O'PRADO)
SCR  SPEEDOMETER Jun24 May20 Apr21 Mar17 Aug07 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 15.00    
  (by TAPIT out of SPEEDINTHRUTHECITY by CITY ZIP)
5  DEALING JUSTICE Jun09 Apr21 Mar02 Jan14 Nov11 (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 122 15.00    
  (by COMMISSIONER out of CLEVER RUN by SMART STRIKE)
6  NON VIOLENCE Jun30 May25 Apr27 Feb12 Jan16 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 126 8.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of SINGAVICTORYSONG by HARD SPUN)
7  WICKED HALO Jun17 May06 Mar31 Nov05 Oct22 (asmussen )TORRES A 124 1.00 54% 0.90    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of JUST WICKED by TAPIT)
 
ELP-7   07/23/2023 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLEVER JOKE May12 Mar09 Dec03 Aug28   (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 13% 6.40    
2  THREE COINS Jun17 Jun01 Apr19 Oct07 Sep29 (hancock john )MORALES EDGAR 123 30.00    
3  FIDDLE Jun25 Jun02 Feb11 Dec15 Oct28 (meah m)MACHADO LUAN 123 6.00 5% 17.30    
4  LOVED REIKO May18 Oct27 Oct07 Jul29 Jul07 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 123 5.00    
5  EXIT SOUL May27 Apr30 Mar18 Jan29 Apr08 (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 123 3.00 18% 4.50    
6  MISREAD Jun25 Jun02 May14 Oct07 May06 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 123 2.00 41% 1.50    
7  MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN Jul13 Jun30 Jun08 Mar23 Feb23 (faircloth av)CALLEJA ANDRES 113 30.00    
8  LUCY'S CAKES FLY Jul07 Jun17 Apr23 Feb15 Jan18 (stuart s)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
9  UNSTABLE PRINCESS Jun29 May12 Apr22 Apr07 Mar17 (santamari)TORRES A 118 20.00    
SCR  MAGIC BUBBLES Jun29 Jun02 Apr29 Apr07 Mar17 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 4.50    
 
ELP-8   07/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MR. THUNDERSTRUCK Jun11 May25 Apr29 Apr01 Mar11 (von don)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 20.00    
2  DIGITAL Jul02 Jun04 May13 Mar26 Feb18 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 122 15.00    
3  PRESIDENTIAL Jun11 May06 Apr22 Mar16 Jan29 (asmussen )TORRES A 122 3.00 32% 2.10    
4  TIWANAKU Jun10 May11 Mar26 Nov02 Oct01 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 124 8.00 11% 8.00    
5  HEARTBREAKER Jun22 Jun02 May13 Apr12 Jun17 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 126 6.00 11% 7.80    
6  ROMAN CENTURIAN Jun22 Jun04 May18 Mar11 Feb18 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 10.00 8% 11.00    
7  ALLEGE Jun25 May29 May03 Mar19 Aug01 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 8.00 11% 7.90    
8  KING'S OVATION Jun11 May18 Apr23 Feb02 Nov23 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00    
9  MAJOR FED Jun22 May27 Nov13 Oct20 Sep15 (foley greg)GRAHAM J 122 15.00    
10  O P FIRECRACKER Jun10 May28 Apr28 Nov19 Oct01 (medina rober)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 25.00    
SCR  LIFE IS HARD Jul09 Apr22 Mar17 Feb05 Jun05 (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 15.00    
12  DETERMINEDLY Jun04 Apr07 Feb18 Jan21 Dec26 (casse mark)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00    
 
ELP-9   07/23/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIRST PLAYER Jul02         (howard j)MORALES EDGAR 118 25.00    
  (by THE PLAYER out of BODACIOUS BETS by AFTER MARKET)
2  BRIGADE COMMANDER Jun22 May14 Apr16     (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of INSPEIGHT OF US by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
3  NOISES OFF Jun22 May14 Mar25 Feb24 Jan28 (lobo paul)TORRES A 118 5.00 18% 4.60    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of UZZIEL by HARLINGTON)
4  BABA VOSS Jun22 Aug21       (walsh p)BEJARANO R 118 3.50 22% 3.50    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of SIEMPRE MIA by SCAT DADDY)
5  ROYAL SALUTE Jun22 Dec10 Oct15     (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 6.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of ELOQUENTLY by DANSILI)
6  UNWRAPPED Jun22 May21       (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 30.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of BELLEOFTHEBEACH by MASTER COMMAND)
7  GORDY'S LABEL Dec03 Oct30       (stall m)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of MYBROKENHOME by BROKEN VOW)
8  SIR ROCK May06 Oct30 Sep29     (mccarthy m)CORRALES GERARDO 118 25.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SAPUCAI by INDIAN CHARLIE)
9  MY BOY TONY Apr08 Mar10       (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 25% 3.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of BOLD CONTENDER by STRONG CONTENDER)
10  STORMIN MIDNIGHT Jun07 May11 Mar10 Feb03   (oliver victori)CHUAN MARTIN 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of LUCY DE by DECARCHY)
11  HOGSLAYERS R I P Jan22         (pessin nei)HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00 10% 9.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SCATTER GUN by SCAT DADDY)
12  ORBI ONE Jun22 May25 May11 Aug06   (ortiz joh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00    
  (by ORB out of HONEY LAKE by HONEYLAND)
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA May28 May04       (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 124 6.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of GLORIA S by TAPIT)
SCR  QUALIFIED May28 May04 Feb25 Sep13   (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of LIL INDY by BUCKLEY BOY)
SCR  HONOR GOLD Jul02         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of MISS DOUBLE D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  TESTIMONY TIME Jul07 Jun22 May27 Apr29   (brumley willia)MACHADO LUAN 124 50.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SILVEREST by CONGRATS)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.