Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Ellis Park
Friday - July 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-3   WIN (3/8/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00  8 $10.42 $4.42 74%
    EXA (3/8/2)-(3/8/2) 6 $2.00 $12.00  8-3 $25.84 $13.84 115%
    DD (2/6/3)-(3/8/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00  2-8 $13.19 $4.19 47%
ELP-4   WIN (5/8/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00  8 $12.08 $4.08 51%
    DD (3/8/2)-(5/8/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00  8-8 $39.03 $27.03 225%
    PK3 (2/6/3)-(3/8/2)-(5/8/3/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00  2-8-8 $22.59 $4.59 26%
ELP-5   DD (5/8/3/6)-(3/8/4/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00  8-4 $31.57 $15.57 97%
    PK3 (3/8/2)-(5/8/3/6)-(3/8/4/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00  8-8-4 $61.75 $37.75 157%
    PK4 (2/6/3)-(3/8/2)-(5/8/3/6)-(3/8/4/7) 144 $0.50 $72.00  1/2/6-8-8-4 $182.18 $110.18 153%
ELP-6   DD (3/8/4/7)-(5/9/7/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00  4-5 $17.31 $1.31 8%
    PK3 (5/8/3/6)-(3/8/4/7)-(5/9/7/6) 64 $0.50 $32.00  8-4-5 $36.77 $4.77 15%
    PK4 (3/8/2)-(5/8/3/6)-(3/8/4/7)-(5/9/7/6) 192 $0.50 $96.00  8-8-4-1/4/5/10 $133.96 $37.96 40%
ELP-7   EXA (1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00  1-3 $20.56 $8.56 71%
ELP-8   WIN (6/1/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00  6 $11.66 $3.66 46%
    EXA (6/1/5/7)-(6/1/5/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00  6-7 $99.46 $75.46 314%
ELP-9   WIN (4/8/7/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00  9 $11.06 $3.06 38%
    DD (6/1/5/7)-(4/8/7/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00  6-9 $43.12 $27.12 170%
    PK3 (1/4/3)-(6/1/5/7)-(4/8/7/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00  1-6-9 $35.22 $11.22 47%
    PK4 (5/9/7/6)-(1/4/3)-(6/1/5/7)-(4/8/7/9) 192 $0.50 $96.00  1/4/5/10-1/5-6-9 $168.91 $72.91 76%
    PK5 (3/8/4/7)-(5/9/7/6)-(1/4/3)-(6/1/5/7)-(4/8/7/9) 768 $0.50 $384  4-1/4/5/10-1/5-6-9 $465.80 $81.80 21%
    PK6 (5/8/3/6)-(3/8/4/7)-(5/9/7/6)-(1/4/3)-(6/1/5/7)-(4/8/7/9) 3072 $0.20 $614  8-4-1/4/5/10-1/5-6-9 $953.07 $338.67 55%
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   07/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:222 :453 :582     1:113   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  ONE COOL DUDE 8 6 54 44   3½ 11½ (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 8.00 15.91  
7  ETERNALLY GRATEFUL 7 8 811 89½   65¼ 21½ (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 2.50 54% 0.80 3.74 P
5  LEND IT TEWMEY 5 7 79 55   54¼ 31¾ (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 122 5.00 2.01  
3  VALE 3 3 42 1½   4¾ 43¼ (combs bentley)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 4.00 13% 6.40 2.56  
1  LOUISIANIMAL 1 5 2½ 3½   2nk 53¾ (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 29.94  
2  HILLBILLY LOGIC 2 2 1½ 2½   1nk 65½ (howard maryanne)LOPEZ E 122 15.00 5% 19.00 16.38  
6  BOUDIN 6 4 66½ 78½   75¾ 77 (cano mun)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00 4.92  
4  BABY QUINN 4 1 31 66   812¾ 827¾ (hancock a)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00 5% 19.00 13.12  
 
ELP-2   07/14/2023 5940ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:253 :493 1:124 1:364   1:483   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  PUNCH HARD 1 2 42½ 42½ 42 4¾ 11¾ (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 123 2.50 52% 0.90 0.47 W
7  MADISON LUVS DUKE 5 5 32 31 31 2½ 21¾ (danner kelsey)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 8.00 7.19  
5  MUCHO MOJO 4 3 21 2½ 1nk 1½ 31¾ (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 118 6.00 9.04  
4  SMOKIN' HOT 3 1 11 1½ 2nk 3½ 44½ (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 3.22  
3  GULLANE 2 4 53½ 53 52½ 55¾ 59 (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 123 12.00 5% 19.00 11.94  
SCR  BRIGADIER GENERAL               (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 3.00    
SCR  HARD RYE GUY               (grubbs l)BEJARANO R 123 5.00 13% 6.40    
 
ELP-3   07/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:23 :46 :58     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  STARTDFROMDABOTTOM 6 1 31½ 2nk   12 1½ (enni)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 3.50 29% 2.40 4.21 W
3  RACE DRIVER 3 3 42½ 3½   22 2½ (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 2.50 41% 1.40 1.93 P
5  ONE LAST HAND 5 2 1½ 1nk   33 36½ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.00 7.61  
1  YOU VEE CEE 1 5 55 55   57 49¾ (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 4.50 4.20  
2  MUNI MUNI SLEW 2 4 2½ 43   44½ 511¾ (maker j)LANERIE J 122 8.00 8% 11.20 2.38  
4  MERLIN'S SONG 4 6 65½ 69   611½ 622¼ (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 122 10.00 12.15  
SCR  ALPINE GHOST               (watkins )RODRIGUEZ A 117 8.00    
SCR  KEEN ON YOU               (cundiff waylon)NAVAS YOEL 115 20.00    
 
ELP-4   07/14/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:25 :493 1:143 1:263   1:383   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  LEGAL TITAN 7 3 2½ 2½ 2nk 1½ 1nk (ewing michael)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00 28% 2.50 5.04 W
  (by ALGORITHMS out of TAYLOR LANE by PARADING)
4  REAL MEN VIOLIN 3 4 42 31½ 31½ 2½ 2nk (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 6.00 3.56  
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of MEG FITZ by TAPIT)
7  MUGATU 6 2 1½ 1½ 1nk 31 32½ (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00 4.39  
  (by BLOFELD out of UNION WAY by UNION RAGS)
2  NOBLE GENTLEMAN 1 5 31 41½ 41¾ 44 45 (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 10.35  
  (by TAMARKUZ out of LOUVE ROYALE by PEINTRE CELEBRE)
9  GENEROUS TIPPER 8 6 67 610½ 58¾ 58½ 57 (mcpeek ke)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.50 2.98  
  (by STREET SENSE out of STOPSHOPPINGDEBBIE by CURLIN)
6  THE RUSH IS ON 5 1 54½ 58½ 69¾ 615½ 620 (vosler eugene )HUGHES CARLY 119 30.00 5% 19.00 35.85  
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CARRIE by GONE ASTRAY)
5  COMPANY YOU KEEP 4 7 710½ 715 721¾ 740½ 779¼ (maker mic)TORRES A 119 2.50 33% 2.00 4.07  
  (by AUDIBLE out of WONDER STONE by SUPER SAVER)
3  VIVA VOCE 2 8 8100 8100 8100 8100 8100 (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00 5% 19.00 11.63  
  (by AUDIBLE out of HAVEANICEWEEKEND by ADIOS CHARLIE)
SCR  MIDNIGHT STORMY               (minnock wayne )MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of AVA G by AFTERNOON DEELITES)
SCR  PHREDDIE MAC               (asmussen )TORRES A 119 2.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FINANCIAL RECOVERY by STREET CRY (IRE))
 
ELP-5   07/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:221 :452 :574     1:11   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  CAPTIVATED DRAMA 4 1 11½ 1nk   11 11¼ (miller kenny)LANERIE J 120 5.00 10% 8.90 3.13 W
2  ATTACHE 2 4 21½ 2nk   21 21¼ (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 120 10.00 2.92  
8  DELLACROCE 6 2 45 45   36 37¾ (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 6.00 12% 7.50 4.09 S
1  LOTS OF MISCHIEF 1 5 57½ 58   48½ 49¾ (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 6.00 6.84  
6  PROSECUTION 5 6 610 610   59½ 59¾ (moquett r)TORRES A 120 10.00 12.31  
3  BOURBON FEVER 3 3 32½ 34½   610 616¾ (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.00 51% 0.90 2.16  
SCR  BANDON               (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LUNDBERG               (moquett e)BEJARANO R 124 4.00    
 
ELP-6   07/14/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:244 :491 1:131 1:25   1:37   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  GOOD BALI 3 2 2½ 2½ 2nk 1nk 1hd (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 1.60 50% 1.00 1.95 W
  (by BAL A BALI out of IN GOOD COMPANY by SOUVENIR COPY)
3  BRITISH SEA 2 3 1½ 1½ 1nk 2nk 2hd (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 2.69  
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of PRINCESS ERINDELLE by DIVINE PARK)
7  ODE TO BALIUS 5 6 44½ 53½ 54½ 53¼ 31¼ (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00 5% 19.00 10.54 S
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of HAIL TO ROCKNROLL by SCAT DADDY)
2  B D SAINTS 1 7 55 31½ 31 33 42¼ (walden william)HEARD TYLER 119 8.00 10.11  
  (by LAOBAN out of WINSANITY by TAPIZAR)
8  RULEROFTHEUNIVERSE 6 4 32½ 41½ 42½ 43¼ 52¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 2.15  
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of BIRIBA by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
9  LEGEND OF THE NILE 7 5 77 78½ 69½ 611¾ 623 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 5% 19.00 10.01  
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of LEGENDARY STACEY by INCLUDE)
6  TECHNE 4 1 65 66½ 712 716¾ 733¼ (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 112 30.00 5% 19.00 51.68  
  (by KLIMT out of CTIMENE by CONSOLIDATOR)
SCR  BORN FLASHY               (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00    
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of BORN SPECIAL by EXUBERANT)
SCR  CARD TRICK               (asmussen )TORRES A 119 5.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of GAME FACTOR by THE FACTOR)
SCR  HAM SANDWICH               (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 3.50    
  (by HEART TO HEART out of VOODOO LOUNGE by PLEASANT TAP)
 
ELP-7   07/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:233 :462 1:104 1:232   1:362   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INSIGNIA 1 2 22 22 12 14½ 19 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 1.00 54% 0.90 0.60 W
3  HER LADYSHIP 3 3 32½ 44 32 24½ 29 (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00 5% 19.00 16.08 P
2  DRE ME LESS 2 1 12 12 22 35 39¾ (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00 11.48  
6  FINE COTTON 5 5 44 33½ 43½ 47½ 415¼ (pessin l)LANERIE J 124 8.00 9.34  
4  TWIN MISCHIEF 4 4 55 54½ 54½ 58 516¼ (asmussen )TORRES A 120 4.00 23% 3.30 4.01  
7  DAWNY 6 6 66 66 616½ 643 6100 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00 5.36  
SCR  HASHTAG WINNER               (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 124 10.00    
 
ELP-8   07/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:222 :454 :581     1:11   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  MAGNIFICENT MILE 6 6 63½ 41¼   2½ 12 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50 36% 1.80 4.83 W
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of HUNG THE MOON by MALIBU MOON)
7  CUORE SACRO 7 1 3½ 3.2   1½ 22 (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 6.00 5% 19.00 4.70 P
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BACCHANAL LADY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
2  ENOUGH ALREADY 2 7 42½ 52¼   52½ 33 (blair jordan)BEJARANO R 124 6.00 14.21  
  (by TAPIT out of INTERJECT by EMPIRE MAKER)
1  FASHION KING 1 2 1nk 1nk   31 45 (asmussen )TORRES A 119 2.50 20% 4.10 1.37  
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of FASHION RUNAWAY by OLD FASHIONED)
4  ZADORO 4 8 813½ 711¾   79 56¾ (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 10.33  
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of BERNARDA by BERNARDINI)
3  BAYOU SPIRIT 3 4 2nk 2nk   41½ 67¾ (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00 11.74  
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of BEAUTIFUL DANIELE by A.P. INDY)
8  TEXAS TOAST 8 3 53 65¾   67½ 711¾ (bicknell whitn)HUGHES CARLY 124 8.00 22.26  
  (by TEXAS RED out of CREDENTIAL by VALID APPEAL)
5  UNCLE HARRY 5 5 74½ 8100   8100 8100 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 19% 4.30 4.92  
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SHE'S PICKY by MARIA'S MON)
 
ELP-9   07/14/2023 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:242 :474 1:112 1:231   1:344   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  BHOMA 7 6 53 74 63¼ 4¾ 1nk (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00 5% 19.00 4.53 W
1  BOUDOIR BURLESQUE 1 3 73½ 63½ 73¼ 3.2 2nk (decker anna)MOJICA JR 122 20.00 6.38  
5  AALIYAH EZRI 5 4 41½ 42½ 41¾ 51¾ 32 (divito james )TALAMO JOSEPH 124 6.00 4.34  
4  SWEETS MAKER 4 2 2½ 2½ 1nk 1nk 43¼ (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00 32% 2.10 3.52  
2  REAGAN'S DECISION 2 1 1½ 1½ 2nk 2nk 54½ (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00 2.02  
7  ENCHANTED NILE 6 5 31 31½ 31½ 64¼ 67 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 10.00 8% 10.80 6.66  
3  HOLIDAY DECISION 3 7 63 53½ 52¾ 76¾ 716½ (delacruz meji)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00 36.64  
SCR  DRAGONERA               (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 118 6.00 31% 2.20    
SCR  FOREVER DREAMING               (lukas w)TORRES A 122 6.00    
SCR  JAG WARRIOR               (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00    
SCR  JUMP INTO THE FIRE               (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 4.50    
SCR  TAP DANCING LADY               (kahles ronal)RAMOS D 122 12.00    
SCR  UNDER ONE SKY               (cano juan )CORRALES GERARDO 122 4.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.