Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Friday - July 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (7/3/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/2/4)-(7/3/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/2/4)-(7/3/2/4)-(7/3/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/2/4)-(2/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/3/2/4)-(2/3)-(3/8/2) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ELP-2   WIN (2/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/3)-(2/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/3)-(3/8/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/3)-(3/8/2)-(5/8/3/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ELP-3   WIN (3/8/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/8/2)-(3/8/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/8/2)-(3/8/2)-(3/8/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/8/2)-(5/8/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/8/2)-(5/8/3/6)-(3/8/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-4   WIN (5/8/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/8/3/6)-(5/8/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/8/3/6)-(5/8/3/6)-(5/8/3/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/8/3/6)-(3/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/8/3/6)-(3/8/4)-(5/6/7/9) 48 $1.00 $144 
ELP-5   WIN (3/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/8/4)-(3/8/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/8/4)-(3/8/4)-(3/8/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/8/4)-(5/6/7/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/8/4)-(5/6/7/9)-(1/4/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-6   WIN (5/6/7/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/6/7/9)-(5/6/7/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/7/9)-(5/6/7/9)-(5/6/7/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/6/7/9)-(1/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/6/7/9)-(1/4/3)-(6/1/5/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-7   WIN (1/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/3)-(1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/3)-(6/1/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/3)-(6/1/5/7)-(4/7/9) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-8   WIN (6/1/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/5/7)-(6/1/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/5/7)-(6/1/5/7)-(6/1/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/5/7)-(4/7/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
ELP-9   WIN (4/7/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/9)-(4/7/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/7/9)-(4/7/9)-(4/7/9) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOUISIANIMAL May21 Mar31 Nov03 Oct02   (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
2  HILLBILLY LOGIC Jun20 Jun03 May19 Mar23 Mar11 (howard maryanne)LOPEZ E 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  VALE Jun29 May21 Mar18 Feb12 Jan13 (combs bentley)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 4.00 13% 6.40    
4  BABY QUINN May29 May21 Apr12 Jun22 May19 (hancock joh)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  LEND IT TEWMEY May04 Jul01 Jun11 May13   (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 122 5.00    
6  BOUDIN Jun10 May18 Jan27 Nov17 Oct28 (cano mun)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00    
7  ETERNALLY GRATEFUL May06 Apr08 Mar09 Feb12 Feb04 (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 2.50 54% 0.80    
8  ONE COOL DUDE Dec30 Nov25 Oct19 Sep12 Aug30 (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 8.00    
 
ELP-2   07/14/2023 5940ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BRIGADIER GENERAL Jun22 May06 Feb25 Sep17 Aug20 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 3.00    
2  PUNCH HARD Jun17 May19 Apr15     (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 123 2.50 52% 0.90    
3  GULLANE Jun16 May20 Mar28 Jan23 Dec21 (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  SMOKIN' HOT Jun24 Mar31 Feb18 Jan21 Dec30 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00    
5  MUCHO MOJO May24 Apr01 Mar17 Feb18 Jan28 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 118 6.00    
SCR  HARD RYE GUY May24 May06 Mar10 Feb17 Jan25 (grubbs l)BEJARANO R 123 5.00 13% 6.40    
7  MADISON LUVS DUKE Jun24 Jun02 May12 Apr26 Mar01 (danner kelsey)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 8.00    
 
ELP-3   07/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YOU VEE CEE May06 Apr07 Feb26 Jan01 Dec10 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 4.50    
2  MUNI MUNI SLEW Jun04 Mar18 Feb19 Feb05 Dec03 (maker j)LANERIE J 122 8.00 8% 11.20    
3  RACE DRIVER May19 May04 Apr22 Mar23 Feb25 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 2.50 41% 1.40    
4  MERLIN'S SONG May16 Mar18 Feb24 Jan27 Dec03 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 122 10.00    
5  ONE LAST HAND Jun15 May05 Apr29 Apr20 Mar10 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.00    
SCR  KEEN ON YOU May19 Apr29 Apr21 Mar04 Feb17 (cundiff waylon)NAVAS YOEL 115 20.00    
SCR  ALPINE GHOST Jul01 Jun17 Jun04 May09 Apr23 (watkins )RODRIGUEZ A 117 8.00    
8  STARTDFROMDABOTTOM Oct29 Aug31 Aug13 Jul26 Jul02 (enni)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 3.50 29% 2.40    
 
ELP-4   07/14/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MIDNIGHT STORMY May29 May11       (minnock wayne )MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of AVA G by AFTERNOON DEELITES)
2  NOBLE GENTLEMAN Jun10 May11       (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of LOUVE ROYALE by PEINTRE CELEBRE)
3  VIVA VOCE         (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of HAVEANICEWEEKEND by ADIOS CHARLIE)
4  REAL MEN VIOLIN         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 6.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of MEG FITZ by TAPIT)
5  COMPANY YOU KEEP         (maker mic)TORRES A 119 2.50 33% 2.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of WONDER STONE by SUPER SAVER)
6  THE RUSH IS ON Jun30 Jun16 May18 Apr27 Apr13 (vosler eugene )HUGHES CARLY 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CARRIE by GONE ASTRAY)
7  MUGATU Jun24         (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00    
  (by BLOFELD out of UNION WAY by UNION RAGS)
8  LEGAL TITAN Jun10 Apr20       (ewing michael)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00 28% 2.50    
  (by ALGORITHMS out of TAYLOR LANE by PARADING)
9  GENEROUS TIPPER         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50    
  (by STREET SENSE out of STOPSHOPPINGDEBBIE by CURLIN)
SCR  PHREDDIE MAC Jun15         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 2.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FINANCIAL RECOVERY by STREET CRY (IRE))
 
ELP-5   07/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOTS OF MISCHIEF Jun01 Sep01       (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 6.00    
2  ATTACHE Jul02 Mar24       (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 120 10.00    
3  BOURBON FEVER Jun25 Jun01       (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.00 51% 0.90    
4  CAPTIVATED DRAMA Jun17 May06       (miller kenny)LANERIE J 120 5.00 10% 8.90    
SCR  LUNDBERG Jun16 May13 Apr08 Mar12 Apr07 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 124 4.00    
6  PROSECUTION Nov15 Sep16       (moquett r)TORRES A 120 10.00    
SCR  BANDON Jun18         (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  DELLACROCE Aug27 Jul30       (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 6.00 12% 7.50    
 
ELP-6   07/14/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HAM SANDWICH Jun10         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 3.50    
  (by HEART TO HEART out of VOODOO LOUNGE by PLEASANT TAP)
2  B D SAINTS         (walden william)HEARD TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of WINSANITY by TAPIZAR)
3  BRITISH SEA         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of PRINCESS ERINDELLE by DIVINE PARK)
SCR  BORN FLASHY         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00    
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of BORN SPECIAL by EXUBERANT)
5  GOOD BALI May22         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 1.60 50% 1.00    
  (by BAL A BALI out of IN GOOD COMPANY by SOUVENIR COPY)
6  TECHNE Jun22 May25 Apr13     (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 112 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KLIMT out of CTIMENE by CONSOLIDATOR)
7  ODE TO BALIUS         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of HAIL TO ROCKNROLL by SCAT DADDY)
8  RULEROFTHEUNIVERSE Jun15         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of BIRIBA by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
9  LEGEND OF THE NILE Jun24         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of LEGENDARY STACEY by INCLUDE)
SCR  CARD TRICK Jun01         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 5.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of GAME FACTOR by THE FACTOR)
 
ELP-7   07/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INSIGNIA Jul29 Jun23 May01     (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 1.00 54% 0.90    
2  DRE ME LESS Jun16 May20 May02 Mar30 Feb23 (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00    
3  HER LADYSHIP May27 Apr21 Feb26 Jan08 Nov12 (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  TWIN MISCHIEF Jun10 May05 Mar25 Aug14   (asmussen )TORRES A 120 4.00 23% 3.30    
SCR  HASHTAG WINNER Jun23 May27 Apr22 Apr13 Mar25 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 124 10.00    
6  FINE COTTON May25 May04 Mar11 Jan16 Dec19 (pessin l)LANERIE J 124 8.00    
7  DAWNY May25 Apr08 Mar26 Feb25 Jan29 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00    
 
ELP-8   07/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FASHION KING Nov05 Oct09       (asmussen )TORRES A 119 2.50 20% 4.10    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of FASHION RUNAWAY by OLD FASHIONED)
2  ENOUGH ALREADY Jun26 May05 Apr09 Feb12   (blair jordan)BEJARANO R 124 6.00    
  (by TAPIT out of INTERJECT by EMPIRE MAKER)
3  BAYOU SPIRIT May27         (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of BEAUTIFUL DANIELE by A.P. INDY)
4  ZADORO         (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of BERNARDA by BERNARDINI)
5  UNCLE HARRY         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 19% 4.30    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SHE'S PICKY by MARIA'S MON)
6  MAGNIFICENT MILE Jun20 Jun01 May13 Apr18 Mar25 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50 36% 1.80    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of HUNG THE MOON by MALIBU MOON)
7  CUORE SACRO May21 Aug19       (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BACCHANAL LADY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
8  TEXAS TOAST Jun18         (bicknell whitn)HUGHES CARLY 124 8.00    
  (by TEXAS RED out of CREDENTIAL by VALID APPEAL)
 
ELP-9   07/14/2023 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOUDOIR BURLESQUE Jun22 May28 May12 Apr16 Mar28 (decker anna)MOJICA JR 122 20.00    
2  REAGAN'S DECISION Oct20 Aug27 Jul09 May06 Apr10 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00    
3  HOLIDAY DECISION Jun10 May19 Apr26 Mar29 Mar13 (delacruz meji)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00    
4  SWEETS MAKER Jun18 May18 Mar23 Feb25 Feb11 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00 32% 2.10    
5  AALIYAH EZRI Jun21 May07 Dec30 Oct27 Sep01 (divito james )TALAMO JOSEPH 124 6.00    
SCR  FOREVER DREAMING May18 Apr07 Feb12 Jan07 Sep04 (lukas w)TORRES A 122 6.00    
7  ENCHANTED NILE May14 Apr07 Jan28 Jan13 Dec18 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 10.00 8% 10.80    
SCR  DRAGONERA Jun08 Mar26 Jan25 Dec28   (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 118 6.00 31% 2.20    
9  BHOMA May18 Apr12 Mar10 Mar05   (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TAP DANCING LADY May18 Apr01 Feb25 Jan28 Jan05 (kahles ronal)RAMOS D 122 12.00    
SCR  UNDER ONE SKY Jul01 May27 May18 Apr12 Mar31 (cano juan )CORRALES GERARDO 122 4.00    
SCR  JAG WARRIOR Jun11 May05 Feb19 Jan28 Nov24 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00    
SCR  JUMP INTO THE FIRE May27 May05 Apr21 Jun29 Jun05 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 4.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.