Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (3/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 3 1 1 $3.02 $3.02  
CD-2   Win (7/6/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $6.92 $6.92  
CD-3   Win (5/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 1 $4.70 $4.70  
CD-4   Win (3/4/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $5.02 $5.02  
CD-5   Win (6/5/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 9 1 0 $4.04  
CD-6   Win (2/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 0 $8.84  
CD-7   Win (1/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 0 $29.98  
CD-8   Win (2/1/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 9 1 0 $11.42  
CD-9   Win (6/3/12/15) 4 $2.00 $8.00 15 1 1 $23.30 $23.30 15.30
CD-10   Win (11/8/7/10/13) 5 $2.00 $10.00 4 1 0 $33.14  
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   09/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:22 :451 :571     1:092   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LIKE A SALTSHAKER 2 2 12 1½   12½ 13¾ (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 121 2.00 69% 0.40 0.51 W
4  JUNIOR BUG 3 3 53¼ 42½   33½ 23¾ (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 121 12.00 5% 19.00 4.31 P
6  SANTA CRUISER 5 4 22 2½   22½ 34¾ (cano m)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 14.74  
2  VIOLENT GIGI 1 1 32 32   43½ 46¾ (contreras c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 12.00 13.42  
5  RISK PROFILE 4 5 43 53   57 515¼ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 3.34  
SCR  SPEND BENJAMINS               (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 121 3.00    
 
CD-2   09/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:241 :49 1:134 1:40   1:463   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEL RAYO 1 3 31½ 32 33 12 14¾ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 16% 5.30 2.46 W
3  RUNLIKECARL 3 2 73½ 64½ 43 22 24¾ (o'donnell marcus)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00 15.15  
8  YULETIDE GALLOP 7 4 1½ 11½ 11½ 32½ 35¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50 1.78  
2  THE RUSH IS ON 2 1 42 43 54 47½ 412½ (vosler eug)STRANDBERG MALLORY 119 20.00 58.73  
10  MOR JAZZ 9 5 62½ 86¼ 65½ 59½ 517¼ (humphries thomas)NAVAS YOEL 112 15.00 31.63  
7  MASTER SWITCH 6 7 52 54½ 77 711½ 622½ (barkley jas)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.00 44% 1.30 3.93  
6  PATCH O'BRIEN 5 6 2½ 21½ 21½ 610 723¼ (garcia ge)DE CRUZ 119 3.00 17% 5.00 6.22  
9  RICHIESDERBYSTRIKE 8 9 96 96¾ 911 915 825¾ (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00 9.15  
4  BAYTOWN CONNECTED 4 8 85½ 76 810 814½ 925¾ (mcentee paul)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00 63.02  
SCR  JACK IS BACK               (humphries thomas)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
 
CD-3   09/17/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:232 :484 1:141 1:392   1:514   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  MIRABELLA 5 2 32 33 3½ 11½ 11 (pletcher tod)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.80 26% 2.80 1.35 W
1  CATMINT 1 5 68 66½ 64 21½ 21 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.50 2.11  
5  ENGLISH TREASURE 4 1 42 44 41½ 53¼ 33½ (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 3.00 31% 2.30 3.95 S
2  LASERJET 2 7 711½ 79 76 75¾ 47 (shirer mat)SANTANA JR 120 10.00 19.74  
3  STAGE BELL 3 4 54 54½ 52 65¾ 57¾ (pitts helen)CANNON DECLAN 120 12.00 33.50  
7  MS. LILIBET 6 3 21 21½ 2nk 33 68¾ (williamson brian)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 12.00 17% 4.80 28.82  
8  KICK A RHYME (IRE) 7 6 11 11½ 1nk 43 710 (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.00 5.47  
SCR  BLUE TOPAZ               (flenner andreana)BAYS BROOKE 110 20.00    
 
CD-4   09/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:23 :463 1:11     1:234   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  INVALUABLE 3 4 41½ 41½   21 1hd (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.60 36% 1.70 1.51 W
8  CHOCTAW BINGO 7 1 31 3½   11 2hd (stinson william)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 17% 5.00 6.12 P
4  CHARGE ACCOUNT 4 2 63 62¼   33 32½ (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 4.50 19% 4.30 4.34 S
5  MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT 5 7 52½ 52   55½ 48½ (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 4.00 2.66  
2  FOREVER DREAMING 2 3 2½ 2nk   65½ 58¾ (cunningham )TORRES A 121 15.00 13.94  
7  LA TOURISTA 6 5 74½ 74¾   77 68¾ (vasquez sr)COURT K 121 12.00 14.23  
1  MY MY MUNNY 1 6 1½ 1nk   44½ 711 (garcia ge)DE CRUZ 121 10.00 11.27  
SCR  MUSIC AMORE               (o'connor robert)CANNON DECLAN 121 6.00    
 
CD-5   09/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:22 :452 :573     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  ORANGE DIABLO 5 4 21½ 2nk   1nk 14½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 26% 2.80 6.54 DQ↓2
9  SHOGUN BE FAST 9 1 11½ 1nk   2nk 24½ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 1.02  
8  WORKISLIFE 8 5 76 45   36 37¼ (o'donnell marcus)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00 21.74  
4  UNREASONABLE 4 9 99½ 68   48½ 410¾ (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 5% 19.00 10.60  
2  DROBNY 2 7 53 56   58¾ 513½ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00 12.18  
7  SPEEDTAIL 7 6 43 33   69¾ 619¼ (mason ingrid)FELIX E 119 12.00 5% 19.00 12.42  
3  YELL COUNTY 3 8 88 79   712¾ 719½ (medina rober)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 10.00 23.86  
1  TECHNE 1 3 32 910¼   817¼ 833 (guerrero sal)ELLIOTT JANE 119 30.00 45.38  
6  TAKE CHARGE J J 6 2 64½ 89¼   9100 9100 (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 2.50 39% 1.60 3.11  
 
CD-6   09/17/2023 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:242 :493 1:134 1:381   1:503   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  TRIDENT HIT 5 3 54½ 53½ 42 2½ 12¼ (moquett rona)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 3.42  
2  ALLEGE 2 1 11½ 11 1½ 1½ 22¼ (mason ingri)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00 26% 2.80 4.43 P
1  PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE 1 6 32½ 32 3½ 31 34 (shirer mat)SANTANA JR 122 8.00 3.18  
7  ICARUS 7 5 76 65 64½ 54½ 46½ (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.00 4.15  
6  MY BARILEY 6 7 66 75 74¾ 65 59¼ (leonard iii)FELIX E 122 15.00 27.86  
3  HE'S GOT THIS 3 4 21½ 21 2½ 41½ 69¼ (hartman chri)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 23% 3.40 5.11  
4  SUGOI 4 2 43 42½ 52½ 75 79¾ (casse w)CHUAN MARTIN 122 8.00 19% 4.30 4.84  
 
CD-7   09/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:221 :454 :58     1:104   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  STRETCH RIDE 5 4 21 31½   42½ 1½ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00 13.99  
8  AGOO 7 1 31½ 2nk   1½ 2½ (beckman whitw)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 ★ 6.85 P
10  NO JUDGMENT 9 3 53½ 42   32½ 32¼ (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 8.88  
1  HANDSOME HERB 1 5 11 1nk   2½ 43 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 49% 1.00 1.79  
4  NYQUIST FREQUENCY 4 2 76 77   77½ 55¼ (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00 5% 19.00 18.08  
2  ANDY'S CANDY 2 8 65 64½   55½ 66¼ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 5.00 4.93  
6  MAX'S MAP 6 6 42 53½   67 79¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 27% 2.70 2.71  
3  WITH FULL HONORS 3 9 87½ 87½   89½ 810¼ (simms mark)SANTANA JR 119 15.00 38.24  
9  MIDNIGHT MAESTRO 8 7 99 911½   911½ 910½ (stewart dall)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 21.71  
SCR  BIG BANK               (leonard george )MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
 
CD-8   09/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:212 :442 :563     1:092   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  CONDENSATION 8 1 54 54½   33½ 1¾ (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 4.71  
3  UNSUNG MELODY 3 3 11 11   12½ 2¾ (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 118 8.00 6.76  
10  MISS ARLINGTON 9 7 21 21   22½ 35 (williamson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00 6.33  
5  NAVY GOAT 5 8 98 97¾   67 47 (devaux cher)TORRES A 118 15.00 6.92  
4  TOPSY 4 4 76 77¼   77 58½ (asmussen steve)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 6% 15.60 5.60  
1  MAGICAL LUTE 1 9 87½ 87¼   87¼ 610¼ (wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 27% 2.70 4.68  
2  PARODY 2 6 31½ 43   55½ 710¼ (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 36% 1.80 3.88  
7  SOMEBODY'S PROBLEM 7 2 42½ 33   45 811¼ (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00 12.29  
6  PRESENT TIME 6 5 64½ 67   99¾ 913¼ (von donni)GARCIA MARTIN 120 20.00 5% 18.40 24.74  
SCR  WILMA MANKILLER               (rivelli larr)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00    
 
CD-9   09/17/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:241 :49 1:15 1:261   1:374   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
15  OCEAN POINTE 11 3 64¾ 75 41¼ 12 17 (estvanko richa)RAMOS D 118 15.00 5% 19.00 10.65 W
12  MACKILLOP 10 6 32 32½ 2nk 22 27 (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 122 3.50 11% 7.80 7.24 P
11  OSCAR AWARD 9 10 106¾ 106¾ 73¾ 34½ 37½ (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 118 20.00 ★ 9.09 S
8  JUNGFRAU 7 11 117 117¾ 106¼ 76¼ 48 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 5.52  
3  LINCOLN HIGHWAY 2 9 96¼ 96¼ 84¼ 55 58 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 4.50 25% 3.10 3.08  
4  ALL CHOKED UP 3 4 53¾ 53½ 52¾ 65¼ 611½ (divito p)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00 17.34  
9  HARDY CHOICE 8 2 1nk 11½ 1nk 44½ 712½ (lynch brian )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 30.00 52.59  
5  UNLEASH THE POWER 4 7 85¼ 64½ 63¾ 108¼ 813¼ (stall m)LANERIE J 122 10.00 7.44  
1  REDEMPTION TIME 1 8 75¼ 85¼ 117¾ 97¾ 913¾ (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00 12.02  
7  LE GRIFFON 6 5 2nk 21½ 31 86¾ 1014¼ (diodoro rob)TORRES A 118 20.00 50.09  
6  PENSACOLA 5 1 42¼ 42½ 95¼ 1114¼ 1134¼ (brisset rodolp)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 42% 1.40 3.54  
SCR  BOCO               (hamilton troy)ELLIOTT JANE 122 30.00    
SCR  EVENT DETAIL               (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
SCR  MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL               (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00    
SCR  NERVES OF STEEL               (walsh p)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 15.00    
SCR  THREE ON THE TREE               (lovell michelle)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
 
CD-10   09/17/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:26
See original race card.
:223 :454 1:111     1:173   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  CHANCE 2 8 63 64½   32½ 11¾ (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00 15.57  
11  FASHION KING 8 1 52½ 42½   21½ 21¾ (asmussen st)TORRES A 121 3.00 49% 1.10 1.55 P
13  PASS LINE 9 4 31 1½   11½ 33¼ (williamson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 12.00 5% 19.00 6.13 S
8  ENOUGH ALREADY 5 9 97 96   66½ 46 (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 5.00 16% 5.30 9.62  
10  ALILNALOT 7 2 2½ 31½   44½ 59 (catalano wa)LEPAROUX R 121 4.00 6% 16.80 5.90  
9  DREAMWITHINADREAM 6 3 84 85½   97¾ 69¼ (hiles jeff)SANTANA JR 121 12.00 7.54  
5  JAY BIRD 3 6 73½ 74½   87½ 710½ (meah m)HEARD TYLER 121 20.00 25.14  
7  SPANISH DOUBLOON 4 5 1½ 2½   54½ 811½ (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 6.00 7% 13.50 22.03  
1  USAIN 1 7 41½ 53   77 915 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 15.00 4.48  
SCR  AWAY FROM HOME               (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 124 20.00    
SCR  BATTLE BORN               (king l)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 30.00    
SCR  CITY OF LOVE               (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.50    
SCR  PAVED IN GOLD               (rutledge lanc)PETERSON FERRIN 121 20.00    
SCR  RIVOLI               (west ethan )HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00    
SCR  SMOKE WAGON               (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00    
SCR  UNWRAPPED               (engler jef)RODRIGUEZ A 121 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.