The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 
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Ellis Park
Saturday - August 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
ELP-1   Win (1/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 0 $3.98 -6.00
    Exacta (1/4/5)-(1/4/5) 6 $2.00 $12.00 3-7 2 0 $32.90 -12.00
    Trifecta (1/4/5)-(1/4/5)-(1/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 3-7-1 3 0 $43.02 -3.00
ELP-2   Win (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $4.38 -6.00
    Exacta (3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 1-2 2 0 $11.80 -12.00
    Trifecta (3/4/6)-(3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 1-2-6 3 0 $10.22 -3.00
    Daily Double (1/4/5)-(3/4/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 3-1 2 0 $4.94 -9.00
ELP-3   Win (3/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 3 1 1 $3.12 $3.12 -0.88
    Exacta (3/5)-(3/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 3-5 2 1 $5.96 $5.96 1.96
    Daily Double (3/4/6)-(3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 1-3 2 0 $3.75 -6.00
    Pick Three (1/4/5)-(3/4/6)-(3/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 3-1-3 3 0 $4.71 -9.00
ELP-4   Win (3/4/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 4 1 1 $5.12 $5.12 -2.88
    Exacta (3/4/5/7)-(3/4/5/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00 4-6 2 0 $21.84 -24.00
    Trifecta (3/4/5/7)-(3/4/5/7)-(3/4/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 4-6-7 3 0 $14.49 -12.00
    Daily Double (3/5)-(3/4/5/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 3-4 2 1 $6.23 $6.23 -1.77
    Pick Three (3/4/6)-(3/5)-(3/4/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 1-3-4 3 0 $8.07 -12.00
ELP-5   Win (4/5/6/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 8 1 1 $8.14 $8.14 -1.86
    Exacta (4/5/6/8/9)-(4/5/6/8/9) 20 $2.00 $40.00 8-11 2 0 $81.48 -40.00
    Trifecta (4/5/6/8/9)-(4/5/6/8/9)-(4/5/6/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 8-11-9 3 0 $97.02 -30.00
    Daily Double (3/4/5/7)-(4/5/6/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 4-8 2 1 $16.29 $16.29 -3.71
    Daily Double (3/4/5/7)-(4/5/6/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 4-2 2 0 $2.73 -20.00
    Pick Three (3/5)-(3/4/5/7)-(4/5/6/8/9) 40 $0.50 $20.00 3-4-8 3 1 $14.41 $14.41 -5.59
    Pick Three (3/5)-(3/4/5/7)-(4/5/6/8/9) 40 $0.50 $20.00 3-4-2 3 0 $2.41 -20.00
ELP-6   Win (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 1 $10.72 $10.72 4.72
    Exacta (3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 6-3 2 1 $37.96 $37.96 25.96
    Trifecta (3/4/6)-(3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 6-3-1 3 0 $64.64 -3.00
    Daily Double (4/5/6/8/9)-(3/4/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 8-6 2 1 $26.06 $26.06 11.06
    Pick Three (3/4/5/7)-(4/5/6/8/9)-(3/4/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 4-8-6 3 1 $52.25 $52.25 22.25
    Pick Three (3/4/5/7)-(4/5/6/8/9)-(3/4/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 4-2-6 3 0 $11.60 -30.00
ELP-7   Win (7/8/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $9.54 -6.00
    Exacta (7/8/9)-(7/8/9) 6 $2.00 $12.00 4-9 2 0 $34.18 -12.00
    Trifecta (7/8/9)-(7/8/9)-(7/8/9) 6 $0.50 $3.00 4-9-8 3 0 $43.04 -3.00
    Daily Double (3/4/6)-(7/8/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 6-4 2 0 $21.24 -9.00
    Pick Three (4/5/6/8/9)-(3/4/6)-(7/8/9) 45 $0.50 $22.50 8-6-4 3 0 $87.85 -22.50
ELP-8   Win (4/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 1 $8.26 $8.26 2.26
    Exacta (4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 6-2 2 0 $27.98 -12.00
    Trifecta (4/5/6)-(4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 6-2-5 3 0 $12.69 -3.00
    Daily Double (7/8/9)-(4/5/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 4-6 2 0 $17.39 -9.00
    Pick Three (3/4/6)-(7/8/9)-(4/5/6) 27 $0.50 $13.50 6-4-6 3 0 $87.27 -13.50
ELP-9   Win (1/3/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $9.04 $9.04 3.04
    Exacta (1/3/9)-(1/3/9) 6 $2.00 $12.00 3-1 2 1 $23.84 $23.84 11.84
    Trifecta (1/3/9)-(1/3/9)-(1/3/9) 6 $0.50 $3.00 3-1-9 3 1 $19.33 $19.33 16.33
    Daily Double (4/5/6)-(1/3/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 6-3 2 1 $34.33 $34.33 25.33
    Pick Three (7/8/9)-(4/5/6)-(1/3/9) 27 $0.50 $13.50 4-6-3 3 0 $52.31 -13.50
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   08/12/2023 3960ft DIRT GOOD Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 2 F PT-12:45
:23 :472 :60     1:13   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  SHAKE IT BABY 2 3 31½ 32   1½ 13 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 119 2.50 0.99  
7  LITTLE MUSIC 6 1 21 2nk   31 23 (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 119 8.00 19.41  
1  SUMMER DANCE 1 4 11 1nk   2½ 34 (hamilton sara)PETERSON FERRIN 119 10.00 15% 5.60 10.95 S
4  MISSY BEE 3 5 56 57½   59 415½ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50 32% 2.20 1.99  
6  TONIC AND GIN 5 2 42½ 42½   47 515½ (jazdzewski j)CORRALES GERARDO 114 8.00 3.92  
5  ROSE DARLING 4 6 614 612½   611½ 616½ (humphries thomas)NAVAS YOEL 112 10.00 15% 5.60 23.27  
SCR  MIA MITOLE               (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 2.00    
 
ELP-2   08/12/2023 5280ft DIRT GOOD Optional Claiming ($20K) Purse ($33K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:17
:231 :461 1:112 1:243   1:381   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DRE ME LESS 1 1 21 31½ 3½ 11½ 12¾ (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 2.50 1.19  
2  HASHTAG WINNER 2 6 65½ 64¾ 41½ 43 22¾ (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 125 1.80 2.66  
6  MUSIC AMORE 6 4 31 2nk 2nk 31½ 32¾ (vasquez german )CANNON DECLAN 123 3.50 12% 7.10 3.59 S
3  PRIDDIS 3 2 41½ 42½ 1nk 21½ 44½ (vanden berg)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 5.00 21% 3.80 9.19  
5  LA TOURISTA 5 5 53½ 52¾ 52 53¼ 59¾ (vasquez german )MORALES EDGAR 123 10.00 12.78  
4  PRINCESSTAPITURE 4 3 11 1nk 65 67¾ 621½ (andrade hugo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00 25% 3.00 9.60  
 
ELP-3   08/12/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
:233 :46 1:10 1:224   1:362   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  SMILE MON 2 3 11½ 11 12½ 15½ 18 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 1.80 51% 0.90 0.56 W
5  CHIRON 3 2 33 33 34½ 37½ 28 (bush s)ELLIOTT JANE 124 8.00 14% 6.20 4.42 P
2  ELEGANT TRIP 1 1 21½ 21 22½ 25½ 38¾ (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00 2.99  
6  MY SANCTUARY 4 4 46½ 49 412½ 415½ 425½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 6.00 5.96  
SCR  ATHENS MOON               (stall alber)TORRES A 118 2.50    
SCR  GREAT BARRIER               (ortiz john )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00    
SCR  TOWN BARBER               (mott riley)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
 
ELP-4   08/12/2023 4620ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 2 ALL PT- 2:22
:221 :452 1:094     1:231   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  NORMANDY HERO 4 2 11 11   11½ 11½ (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 119 3.00 24% 3.10 1.56 W
6  COACH JIMI D 6 3 21 21   21½ 21½ (divito jame)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 114 4.00 4.68  
7  ASTRONOMICO 7 1 43 32½   34 36¼ (gutierrez f)TORRES A 119 1.80 16% 5.20 2.17 S
3  PATCH O'BRIEN 3 7 55 42½   48 414 (garcia genar)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 26% 2.80 9.94  
2  LIQUOR TALK 2 6 78½ 79¾   712 519½ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 8.00 7.73  
5  MOR JAZZ 5 5 67 65¼   511 622¼ (humphries thoma)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 6% 15.80 37.74  
1  HOT N LUCKY 1 4 33 52¾   612 723¾ (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 8.79  
 
ELP-5   08/12/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 2:53
:242 :481 1:132 1:261   1:391   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  ODE TO BALIUS 5 2 42½ 53 51¾ 31½ 1¼ (ortiz alex)CANNON DECLAN 119 4.50 34% 2.00 3.07 W
11  THOMAS AQUINAS 7 3 2½ 2½ 3.2 1nk 2¼ (wilkes r)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00 10.98  
9  BERNIN HOT 6 1 1½ 1½ 1nk 2nk 31¾ (davis christoph)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00 5% 19.00 6.43 S
5  HEY JOE JOE 3 7 52½ 43 41¼ 52¼ 43¾ (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 119 10.00 18% 4.60 1.84  
6  DIRBAS 4 8 63½ 64 62¼ 63¾ 53¾ (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 8.00 8% 12.30 5.87  
4  CRUSADING 2 6 84¼ 74¼ 72¼ 73¾ 64¾ (asmussen m)BEJARANO R 119 6.00 17% 4.90 6.50  
12  WARNING SIGNS 8 4 31 31 2nk 42 76¾ (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 20.00 14.70  
1  FORT THOMAS 1 5 74 85¾ 85¾ 87¾ 812¼ (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00 17.28  
SCR  BAYOU MAGIC               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
SCR  BRITISH SEA               (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50    
SCR  CHANNELER               (thomas jonatha)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
SCR  GOTTANEEDFORSPEED               (mccarthy michael)CHUAN MARTIN 119 5.00    
SCR  INTOLERABLE               (ramos )PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 30.00    
SCR  LUKE               (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
SCR  MOVE TO GOLD               (brown chad )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.00    
SCR  POLAR BEAR PLUNGE               (casse mark)TORRES A 119 15.00    
 
ELP-6   08/12/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
:222 :453 :574     1:11   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  LA V. 5 3 21 1½   12½ 11¾ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 5.00 31% 2.20 4.36 W
3  STANLEY MARKET 2 4 43½ 43   22½ 21¾ (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 115 2.00 34% 1.90 2.03 P
1  SHE DAZZLE 1 6 66 65½   58½ 310½ (danner kelsey)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 15.00 8.27  
4  CAMI CAT 3 1 11 2½   35 413 (claire alexis)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 8.00 5% 19.00 6.89  
5  TAP N SWAY 4 2 53½ 55   69 514¼ (becker scot)TORRES A 122 3.50 5.81  
7  SHOW ME GRACE 6 5 31½ 32   48 623¼ (shorter aar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.00 2.17  
SCR  JOAN'S WAY               (silva carl)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00    
 
ELP-7   08/12/2023 3630ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:00
:222 :45 :57     1:032   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  FOUR DAWN 2 3 2nk 11½   15 16½ (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00 3.77  
9  DEVINE CHARGER 6 1 44 34   25 26½ (blair jordan)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 8.00 47% 1.10 4.04 P
8  HONEY RUN 5 6 66¼ 56½   410 313¾ (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 11% 7.90 3.81 S
2  CHARLEY RUDE 1 4 1nk 21½   37½ 413¾ (cano m)TORRES A 117 20.00 8.05  
5  MASSARD 3 5 54¼ 66½   511 516½ (moquett ronald )MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00 16.46  
7  EMPIRE OF MY OWN 4 2 33 45½   613 621¾ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 10% 8.70 1.32  
SCR  ARDEN'S ASSAULT               (davis christoph)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
SCR  CENTER STAGE               (foley greg)GARCIA MARTIN 122 15.00    
SCR  HIDEKI               (walsh d)BEJARANO R 122 2.50    
SCR  IVORY MOON               (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.50    
SCR  SPARKLE OF HOPE               (foley greg)GRAHAM J 122 10.00    
 
ELP-8   08/12/2023 5940ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:34
:24 :474 1:121 1:37   1:501   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  SEARCH ENGINE 6 4 1½ 1½ 1nk 12 11¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.50 27% 2.70 3.13 W
2  KING'S OVATION 2 2 31½ 31½ 41½ 33½ 21¼ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 1.80 2.23  
5  ROMAN CENTURIAN 5 3 64½ 63½ 52½ 43½ 32¼ (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 2.00 28% 2.60 2.99 S
3  GROUP EIGHTEEN 3 1 2½ 2½ 2nk 22 42¼ (williamson bri)BESCHIZZA ADAM 126 6.00 11.06  
1  ICARUS 1 6 53 53 62¾ 64¼ 55 (van th)TORRES A 122 10.00 5.15  
4  HE'S GOT THIS 4 5 41½ 41½ 3½ 54 65¼ (hartman chri)CORRALES GERARDO 122 10.00 19% 4.20 5.01  
SCR  NAVY CROSS               (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 20.00    
 
ELP-9   08/12/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3 F PT- 5:07
:232 :464 1:114 1:242   1:371   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  BE HERE NOW 3 1 2½ 21 2nk 13 19½ (hiles a)GRAHAM J 120 12.00 10% 9.30 3.52 W
1  WINDY BAY 1 2 1½ 11 1nk 23 29½ (van thomas)BEJARANO R 120 6.00 30% 2.30 2.08 P
9  C C CRUISE CONTROL 5 3 42 43 33½ 35 311½ (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 120 5.00 32% 2.20 2.52 S
7  UNSTABLE PRINCESS 4 5 56 55½ 55¾ 47½ 413½ (santamaria )TORRES A 120 10.00 5.58  
2  MISCHIEVOUS GAL 2 4 32 31½ 45½ 510½ 525½ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00 3.33  
SCR  NOMADIC PRIDE               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00    
SCR  LEOPARDESS (GB)               (thomas jonatha)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 5.00    
SCR  IN COLOR               (d'amato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 4.00    
SCR  HOTHEADED PRINCESS               (castillo richard)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00    
SCR  SHOPLIFTER               (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 120 2.50    
SCR  CLEVER JOKE               (catalano wa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.