Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - August 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (4/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/5)-(4/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/5)-(4/1/5)-(4/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/5)-(4/3/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/1/5)-(4/3/6)-(3/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
ELP-2   WIN (4/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/6)-(4/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/6)-(4/3/6)-(4/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/6)-(3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/3/6)-(3/5)-(3/4/7/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ELP-3   WIN (3/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/5)-(3/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/5)-(3/4/7/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (3/5)-(3/4/7/5)-(8/5/4/6/9) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
ELP-4   WIN (3/4/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/7/5)-(3/4/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/4/7/5)-(3/4/7/5)-(3/4/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/4/7/5)-(8/5/4/6/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/4/7/5)-(8/5/4/6/9)-(3/6/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-5   WIN (8/5/4/6/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/5/4/6/9)-(8/5/4/6/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/5/4/6/9)-(8/5/4/6/9)-(8/5/4/6/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/5/4/6/9)-(3/6/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/5/4/6/9)-(3/6/4)-(9/8/7) 45 $1.00 $135 
ELP-6   WIN (3/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/4)-(3/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/4)-(3/6/4)-(3/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/4)-(9/8/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/6/4)-(9/8/7)-(5/6/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-7   WIN (9/8/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/8/7)-(9/8/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/8/7)-(9/8/7)-(9/8/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (9/8/7)-(5/6/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (9/8/7)-(5/6/4)-(9/1/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-8   WIN (5/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/4)-(5/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/4)-(5/6/4)-(5/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/4)-(9/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
ELP-9   WIN (9/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/1/3)-(9/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/1/3)-(9/1/3)-(9/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 2 F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUMMER DANCE         (hamilton sa)PETERSON FERRIN 119 10.00 15% 5.60    
SCR  MIA MITOLE Jul08 May20       (asmussen )TORRES A 119 2.00    
3  SHAKE IT BABY Jul22 Jun16       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 2.50    
4  MISSY BEE         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50 32% 2.20    
5  ROSE DARLING         (humphries thomas)NAVAS YOEL 112 10.00 15% 5.60    
6  TONIC AND GIN Aug01 Jul06 Jun15     (jazdzews)RODRIGUEZ A 114 8.00    
7  LITTLE MUSIC Jul21 Jul01 Jun12 May19 Apr26 (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 119 8.00    
 
ELP-2   08/12/2023 5280ft DIRT RC6 GOOD Optional Claiming ($20K) Purse ($33K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DRE ME LESS Jul14 Jun16 May20 May02 Mar30 (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 2.50    
2  HASHTAG WINNER Jul31 Jun23 May27 Apr22 Apr13 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 125 1.80    
3  PRIDDIS Jul31 Jun25 Jun03 Apr21 Apr02 (vanden be)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 5.00 21% 3.80    
4  PRINCESSTAPITURE Jul14 May11 Apr13 Mar04 Jan20 (andrade )RODRIGUEZ A 118 8.00 25% 3.00    
5  LA TOURISTA Jul23 Jul07 Jun18 May28 May18 (vasquez germa)MORALES EDGAR 123 10.00    
6  MUSIC AMORE Jul01 May27 May14 May02 Mar02 (vasquez germa)CANNON DECLAN 123 3.50 12% 7.10    
 
ELP-3   08/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GREAT BARRIER Jul30 Oct23       (ortiz joh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of REEF POINT by BON POINT (GB))
2  ELEGANT TRIP         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00    
  (by TOURIST out of NATIVE TALENT by A.P. INDY)
3  SMILE MON Jul16 Jun11 May14 Dec31 Nov26 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 1.80 51% 0.90    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of TENSAS PUNCH by WAR FRONT)
SCR  ATHENS MOON Jul07 May21       (stall alb)TORRES A 118 2.50    
  (by NYQUIST out of GASP by TINAJERO)
5  CHIRON Jul02 Jun04 May14 Apr01 Mar17 (bush s)ELLIOTT JANE 124 8.00 14% 6.20    
  (by PROTONICO out of DEEDS NOT WORDS by STREET SENSE)
6  MY SANCTUARY Jan07 Nov26 Oct15     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 6.00    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of MY BELONGING by BELONG TO ME)
SCR  TOWN BARBER Jul16         (mott riley)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of DISCO BARBIE by PURE PRIZE)
 
ELP-4   08/12/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 2 ALL PT- 2:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOT N LUCKY Jul15         (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of MY LADY LUCK by HARD SPUN)
2  LIQUOR TALK         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 8.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of K. D.'S SHADY LADY by MARIA'S MON)
3  PATCH O'BRIEN Jun16 May11       (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 26% 2.80    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of BALLSTON by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
4  NORMANDY HERO Jul01         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 3.00 24% 3.10    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of SWAN OF THE NILE by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
5  MOR JAZZ         (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 6% 15.80    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of PINK LENINADE by LEMON DROP KID)
6  COACH JIMI D Jul30 Jul15       (divito j)RODRIGUEZ A 114 4.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of SHANGHAI SNOOKIE by SHANGHAI BOBBY)
7  ASTRONOMICO Jul20 Jun24 Jun04     (gutierrez)TORRES A 119 1.80 16% 5.20    
  (by UNKNOWN out of GREEN WATERS by ARCH)
 
ELP-5   08/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 2:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORT THOMAS         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of BYE BYE BABY by GALILEO)
SCR  BAYOU MAGIC         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of KRAZY KATHY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
SCR  BRITISH SEA Jul14         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of PRINCESS ERINDELLE by DIVINE PARK)
4  CRUSADING         (asmussen steven )BEJARANO R 119 6.00 17% 4.90    
  (by CURLIN out of BELLAVAIS by TAPIT)
5  HEY JOE JOE Jun22         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 10.00 18% 4.60    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of PEACH BREW by MILWAUKEE BREW)
6  DIRBAS         (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 8.00 8% 12.30    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of ATHENS QUEEN by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
SCR  MOVE TO GOLD         (brown cha)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BRANDY by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
8  ODE TO BALIUS Jul14         (ortiz al)CANNON DECLAN 119 4.50 34% 2.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of HAIL TO ROCKNROLL by SCAT DADDY)
9  BERNIN HOT Jul15 May25       (davis christo)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of LAVENDER BABY by RUBIANO)
SCR  POLAR BEAR PLUNGE Jul15         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 15.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of LET IT SNOW by FROSTY THE SNOWMAN)
11  THOMAS AQUINAS Jul15         (wilkes ian)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of SUNNY COVE by STREET CRY (IRE))
12  WARNING SIGNS Jul21         (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of EMMA CARLY by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  LUKE         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of WELL HEELED LADY by BROAD BRUSH)
SCR  CHANNELER         (thomas jonat)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of NOETIC by TRI JET)
SCR  GOTTANEEDFORSPEED Jun29         (mccarthy micha)CHUAN MARTIN 119 5.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of HEALTHY ADDICTION by BOSTON HARBOR)
SCR  INTOLERABLE         (ramo)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 30.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of IT'S MO TIME by UNCLE MO)
 
ELP-6   08/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHE DAZZLE Jul09 Dec23 Dec07 Oct17 Aug27 (danner kelsey)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 15.00    
SCR  JOAN'S WAY Jul26 Jul06 Jun14 Jun06 May18 (silva ca)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00    
3  STANLEY MARKET Jul07 May28 Dec18 Nov03 Sep18 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 115 2.00 34% 1.90    
4  CAMI CAT Jul21 Jul08 Jun21 Jun03 Apr27 (claire alexis)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  TAP N SWAY Jul09 May23 Jan20 Nov21 Sep28 (becker sc)TORRES A 122 3.50    
6  LA V. Jun16 May13 Mar05 Feb20 Jan06 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 5.00 31% 2.20    
7  SHOW ME GRACE Jul09 Jun16 Apr15 Mar24 Feb18 (shorter a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.00    
 
ELP-7   08/12/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HIDEKI Jul16 Jun15 Apr20 Mar30 Mar09 (walsh d)BEJARANO R 122 2.50    
2  CHARLEY RUDE Jul16 May03 Mar11 Feb08 Dec17 (cano jua)RODRIGUEZ A 117 20.00    
SCR  CENTER STAGE Jul15 May20 Apr23 Mar25 Feb16 (foley greg)GARCIA MARTIN 122 15.00    
4  FOUR DAWN Jul16 Nov09 Oct10 Sep15 Aug29 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00    
5  MASSARD Jun22 May20 Apr20 Nov07 Oct06 (moquett ronal)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
SCR  ARDEN'S ASSAULT Jul15 Jun18 Apr27 Mar18   (davis christo)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
7  EMPIRE OF MY OWN Jul16 Jun11 Apr08 Mar02 Aug26 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 10% 8.70    
8  HONEY RUN Oct02 Sep10 Aug27 Jun29 Jun03 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 11% 7.90    
9  DEVINE CHARGER Jul16 May20 Sep09 Jul31 Jul09 (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 8.00 47% 1.10    
SCR  IVORY MOON Jan22         (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.50    
SCR  SPARKLE OF HOPE Jun11 Sep23 Jul03 Jun08 May30 (foley greg)GRAHAM J 122 10.00    
 
ELP-8   08/12/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ICARUS Jun22 May25 May05 Apr22 Mar11 (van berg )TORRES A 122 10.00    
2  KING'S OVATION Jul23 Jun11 May18 Apr23 Feb02 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 1.80    
3  GROUP EIGHTEEN Jul21 Jun22 May19 Apr19 Mar18 (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 126 6.00    
4  HE'S GOT THIS Jul02 May26 Apr23 Feb26 Feb03 (hartman ch)CORRALES GERARDO 122 10.00 19% 4.20    
5  ROMAN CENTURIAN Jul23 Jun22 Jun04 May18 Mar11 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 2.00 28% 2.60    
6  SEARCH ENGINE May25 Feb28 Feb11 Dec11 Nov04 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 4.50 27% 2.70    
SCR  NAVY CROSS Jul27 Jun16 May20 May06 Apr14 (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 20.00    
 
ELP-9   08/12/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3 F PT- 5:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WINDY BAY Jul15 May25 Apr21 Mar16 Feb17 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 120 6.00 30% 2.30    
2  MISCHIEVOUS GAL Jul08 Apr23 Mar18 Feb16 Nov24 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00    
3  BE HERE NOW Jun02 Mar26 Jan08 Nov10   (hiles a)GRAHAM J 120 12.00 10% 9.30    
SCR  CLEVER JOKE Jul23 May12 Mar09 Dec03 Aug28 (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.00    
SCR  IN COLOR Jun24 May12 Mar31 Mar05 Dec21 (d'amato phili)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 4.00    
SCR  LEOPARDESS (GB) Jun21 May18 Sep28     (thomas jonat)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 5.00    
7  UNSTABLE PRINCESS Jul23 Jun29 May12 Apr22 Apr07 (santamari)TORRES A 120 10.00    
SCR  HOTHEADED PRINCESS Jul22 Jun29 May29     (castillo richa)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00    
9  C C CRUISE CONTROL Jul15 Jun21 May29 May12 Apr14 (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 120 5.00 32% 2.20    
SCR  SHOPLIFTER Jun29 May29 Apr16 Feb25 Nov04 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 120 2.50    
SCR  NOMADIC PRIDE Jun29 May29 Mar25 Feb24 Dec01 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.