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Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Friday - September 29, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

			Wgr	Pick						Tot	Bet	Bet	Winning		Pay
			Type	Numbers						Tkts	Unit	Amt	Numbers		Amt			Profit				ROI

CD-1			WIN	(7/1/4)						3	$2.00	$6.00	4		$13.86			$7.86				131%
CD-2			WIN	(3/8/2/5)						4	$2.00	$8.00	2		$12.98			$4.98				62%
			EXA	(3/8/2/5)-(3/8/2/5)						12	$2.00	$24.00	2-8		$52.66			$28.66				119%
			DD	(7/1/4)-(3/8/2/5)						12	$1.00	$12.00	4-2		$57.07			$45.07				376%
CD-5			WIN	(9/8/1/6)						4	$2.00	$8.00	6		$21.82			$13.82				173%
			EXA	(9/8/1/6)-(9/8/1/6)						12	$2.00	$24.00	6-9		$55.84			$31.84				133%
CD-6			WIN	(3)						1	$2.00	$2.00	3		$2.76			$0.76				38%
			DD	(9/8/1/6)-(3)						4	$1.00	$4.00	6-3		$14.91			$10.91				273%
CD-7			WIN	(5/2/4)						3	$2.00	$6.00	2		$7.90			$1.90				32%
			DD	(3)-(5/2/4)						3	$1.00	$3.00	3-2		$5.96			$2.96				99%
			PK3	(9/8/1/6)-(3)-(5/2/4)						12	$0.50	$6.00	6-3-2		$33.07			$27.07				451%
CD-8			PK3	(3)-(5/2/4)-(9/3/8/1/2)						15	$0.50	$7.50	3-2-9		$13.29			$5.79				77%
CD-9			WIN	(11/3/9/5)						4	$2.00	$8.00	9		$21.72			$13.72				172%
			DD	(9/3/8/1/2)-(11/3/9/5)						20	$1.00	$20.00	9-9		$35.78			$15.78				79%
			PK3	(5/2/4)-(9/3/8/1/2)-(11/3/9/5)						60	$0.50	$30.00	2-9-9		$142.38			$112.38				375%

Simulator Race results


CD-1			09/29/2023		3960ft	DIRT	RC4	FAST	Maiden Claimer ($20K)					Purse ($42K)			2		ALL		PT-12:45
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
4	SMOOTHDINI									(hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119						8.00		9%		10.20		5.93	W
10	TAPITBOY									(asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119						4.50						1.67
3	METRONOME									(harty eoin)GRAHAM J 119						4.00						2.15
5	POINT AT YOU									(claire alex)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119						20.00						11.40
7	CASINO BOSS									(cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119						3.50		51%		1.00		3.19
1	DIFFERENT FLAME									(hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119						20.00		9%		10.20		16.35
SCR	CAPO									(rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119						10.00
SCR	MASTER OF DISGUISE									(ennis john)MCENTEE GRACE 119						5.00
SCR	MR BIG STUFF (GB)									(puhich mike)TORRES A 114						10.00
SCR	WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE									(ennis john)HEARD TYLER 119						5.00

CD-2			09/29/2023		4620ft	DIRT	RC7	FAST	Claiming ($16K)					Purse ($48K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 1:14
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
2	SANTA CRUISER									(cano juan)HERNANDEZ J 121						3.50		11%		8.50		5.49	W
8	HERD IMMUNITY									(tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121						6.00		18%		4.70		3.10	P
1	AFTER FIVE									(diodoro r)TORRES A 121						2.50						2.33
4	POPULIST									(moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121						5.00						10.77
3	TWO WORLDS									(vanden britt)EMIGH A 121						3.00		47%		1.10		3.52
5	STEINBECK									(asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121						10.00		5%		19.00		10.00
6	FERRYBOAT									(miller jero)PETERSON FERRIN 121						20.00						44.70
7	KHOZAN'S SUCCESS									(lauer mi)SANTANA JR 121						10.00						9.41

CD-3			09/29/2023		5610ft	DIRT	RC7	FAST	Claiming ($30K)					Purse ($56K)			3UP		M/F		PT- 1:43
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
4	MY GOOD FORTUNE									(sims a)ACHARD ALEX 122						5.00						5.21
2	LITTLE DIXIE									(moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118						3.50						3.81
3	LUNA MOTH									(vanden britt)EMIGH A 118						3.00						2.28
5	PACHANGA LOCA									(gutierrez)TORRES A 118						2.50		52%		0.90		2.12
1	LADY WITH A CAUSE									(garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118						4.00		12%		7.60		10.09
6	JUDY'S MS. OFFICER									(reavis mic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122						15.00		9%		9.70		12.38
7	MAGIC PALACE									(forster t)GRAHAM J 122						10.00						17.48

CD-4			09/29/2023		3300ft	TURF	RC5	FIRM	Maiden Sp Wt					Purse ($120K)			2		ALL		PT- 2:13
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
3	CEEPEEGEE									(moquett e)BEJARANO R 119						15.00						32.31
		(by ARMY MULE out of DANCE FOR DADDY by SCAT DADDY)
2	LIGHTNING MYQUEEN									(casse mark)CARROLL DECLAN 116						15.00						18.54
		(by PALACE MALICE out of C J'S GAL by AWESOME AGAIN)
6	SPIRIT'S MISCHIEF									(ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119						3.00		18%		4.50		2.09	S
		(by INTO MISCHIEF out of STAVE by GHOSTZAPPER)
9	BYE BYE LIAM									(asmussen)SANTANA JR 119						8.00						15.81
		(by BOLT D'ORO out of GRAMMAJO by STREET SENSE)
5	NORWICH									(devaux ch)TORRES A 119						4.50		19%		4.30		2.62
		(by MUNNINGS out of ABOVE THE CROWD by DISCREETLY MINE)
10	NUMERO SIETE									(sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 119						5.00		5%		19.00		13.76
		(by HARD SPUN out of TENACIOUS TINA by BENCHMARK)
7	KING OF THE PALACE									(tracy tann)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119						6.00		35%		1.80		6.20
		(by PALACE MALICE out of SIRCAT SALLY by SURF CAT)
11	BIG FIG									(maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119						5.00		5%		19.00		8.61
		(by CITY OF LIGHT out of SUDDEN FAME by WESTERN FAME)
12	THEZELENSKYYFACTOR									(stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119						12.00						10.05
		(by THE FACTOR out of WEEKEND SKY by FUJI KISEKI (JPN))
4	LOMACHENKO									(beckman whitwort)GRAHAM J 119						20.00						38.18
		(by MENDELSSOHN out of CORDELHIA by AUSTRALIA (GB))
8	BIG HUNGRY									(forster gr)MURRILL MITCHELL 119						15.00						36.67
		(by PALACE MALICE out of NAVY GARDENS by STORM CAT)
1	IRISH MOON									(desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119						20.00						48.61
		(by RANSOM THE MOON out of IRELAND by AFLEET ALEX)
SCR	HONKY TONK HIGHWAY									(calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119						6.00
		(by CITY OF LIGHT out of SHARED HUMOR by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR	KING BUKELE									(torres erick )DELCID MARLON 109						30.00
		(by OUTWORK out of SUPER CUB by OLD TRIESTE)
SCR	RUNNIN' ROCKET									(lynch a)GRAHAM J 119						6.00
		(by WAR FRONT out of CORPS DE BALLET by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR	THUNDER BALL									(o'neill d)LEPAROUX R 119						8.00
		(by MITOLE out of STRIKE ACCORD by SMART STRIKE)

CD-5			09/29/2023		3960ft	DIRT	RC7	FAST	Claiming ($40K)					Purse ($68K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 2:45
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
6	TEE BURNS									(reavis mic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121						8.00		5%		19.00		9.91	W
9	TAPE TO TAPE									(rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 121						2.50		51%		1.00		1.09	P
5	FLAGS UP									(baker james)LANERIE J 121						15.00						7.20
8	SAMURAI PRINCE									(cano munoz)BEJARANO R 121						8.00		15%		5.80		16.33
3	FRIAR LAURENCE									(garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121						20.00						13.05
2	UPSTRIKER									(rice linda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121						2.00						4.11
1	EMERALD EXPRESS									(ramirez l)TORRES A 121						5.00		13%		6.80		8.26
7	SENOR JOBIM									(asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121						8.00						10.26
SCR	DON'T WAIT UP									(garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 121						15.00

CD-6			09/29/2023		5610ft	DIRT	RC3	FAST	Alw Opt Clm ($100K)					Purse ($141K)			3UP		M/F		PT- 3:18
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
3	HEARTYCONSTITUTION									(sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122						1.60		58%		0.70		0.38	W
4	SOUL OF AN ANGEL									(james geral)WILLIAMS AJHARI 122						5.00						2.19
6	JUNGLE JUICE (IRE)									(meah m)MCENTEE GRACE 122						12.00						4.67
SCR	MISS NEW YORK									(delgado )SANTANA JR 118						8.00
SCR	FANNIE AND FREDDIE									(stall alb)TORRES A 124						8.00
SCR	ROYAL TAKE CHARGE									(stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122						2.00
SCR	BHOMA									(catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122						12.00

CD-7			09/29/2023		3960ft	DIRT	RC7	FAST	Claiming ($50K)					Purse ($68K)			3UP		M/F		PT- 3:50
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
2	PROMISES TO DANCE									(cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121						4.00		21%		3.70		2.95	W
3	STREET JAM									(wilkes r)LANERIE J 121						5.00						6.97
8	STORY HOUR									(wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121						2.50						4.45
4	LITTLE SISTER SUE									(garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 123						15.00		13%		6.90		19.21
5	CORNER KICK									(diodoro r)TORRES A 120						1.60		37%		1.70		1.20
6	PUNCHY GIRL									(morse rand)MICHEL MICKAELLE 121						15.00						37.76
7	MARGOINABUBBLEBATH									(habeeb j)GRAHAM J 118						12.00						7.20
SCR	HOLIDAY DECISION									(delacruz meji)MORALES EDGAR 118						15.00

CD-8			09/29/2023		5280ft	TURF	RC10	FIRM	Allowance					Purse ($127K)			2		F		PT- 4:22
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
9	GAVEA (GER)									(stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122						4.00		35%		1.80		1.91	W
8	MO FOX GIVIN									(danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122						10.00		10%		9.50		2.72	P
4	APRIL'S DIAMANTE									(gutierrez)TORRES A 120						5.00						4.22
2	MO SENSE									(kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 120						10.00		5%		19.00		12.54
7	MILA JUNES									(evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 120						12.00						55.23
10	STAIRSTEP TOHEAVEN									(sims p)MACHADO LUAN 120						10.00						34.98
5	CAT'S CAVE									(tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120						8.00						18.43
3	CATHOLIC GAL									(o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 120						4.50		21%		3.70		10.31
6	EASY RED									(o'neill dou)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120						3.50						9.57
1	GO MARGIE GO									(rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 120						10.00		5%		17.70		17.13
SCR	PEIGNOIR									(brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 120						3.50

CD-9			09/29/2023		4290ft	DIRT	RC3	FAST	Alw Opt Clm ($80K)					Purse ($134K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 4:55
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
9	OSBOURNE									(moquett r)LEPAROUX R 121						6.00		16%		5.20		9.86	W
8	SKY AND SAND									(diodoro r)TORRES A 121						5.00						3.32
1	ANGKOR									(bauer a)BEJARANO R 123						3.50						1.86
5	W W CANDY									(quinonez max)LEZCANO ABEL 121						12.00		5%		19.00		20.72
6	MAC DADDY TOO									(casse no)SANTANA JR 121						6.00		★				11.47
11	BOURBON HEIST									(wilkes ian)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121						5.00		29%		2.40		8.16
4	BROKEN RIB									(amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121						8.00						14.61
7	MIDNIGHT ESCAPE									(hernandez j)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121						30.00						61.35
2	CALL ME MIDNIGHT									(desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 121						30.00						28.65
3	UNDER OATH									(pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 121						4.00		25%		3.00		4.24
SCR	FAN CLUB									(forster grant)TALAMO JOSEPH 121						30.00

CD-10			09/29/2023		3960ft	DIRT	RC5	FAST	Maiden Sp Wt					Purse ($92K)			2		ALL		PT- 5:26
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
9	HONOR MARIE									(beckman whitwo)BEJARANO R 119						15.00						13.67
		(by HONOR CODE out of DAME MARIE by SMART STRIKE)
7	BOURBON BOSS									(mott rile)TORRES A 119						2.50		40%		1.50		2.20	P
		(by STREET BOSS out of ARISIA by DECLARATION OF WAR)
8	RUN JALEN RUN									(sharp joe)TORRES A 114						10.00						12.36
		(by RUNHAPPY out of ANALYZE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
3	ANTHONIAN									(morse l)LANERIE J 119						10.00						12.86
		(by AIR FORCE BLUE out of MISS ANDORRA by MALIBU MOON)
1	LUCKY JEREMY									(morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 119						6.00						13.51
		(by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of POWDER N BLUSH by WAR CHANT)
4	DASHMAN									(lynch bria)MURRILL MITCHELL 119						8.00		5%		19.00		7.70
		(by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of FLY BY by JOHAR)
2	WISH CAREFULLY									(lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 119						5.00		★				3.47
		(by MITOLE out of FORGIVENESS by MEADOWLAKE)
5	CONNIVING									(chapman ja)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119						3.00		35%		1.90		5.26
		(by CONNECT out of STARLET STORM by THE FACTOR)
6	WISTUCKY									(romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119						12.00						7.46
		(by NYQUIST out of MALIBU PRINCESS by MALIBU MOON)
SCR	FEAR AND LOATHING									(toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 119						20.00
		(by GET STORMY out of SALLY POLLOCK HIGH by SENOR SWINGER)



	Labels:
	M/L	Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
	W/P	Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
	B/E	Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
	F/O	Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

	Two Groups of Contenders:
	Win Contenders
		The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
	Place/Show Contenders
		The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

	Legal:
	Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.