Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Friday - September 29, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (7/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00  4 $13.86 $7.86 131%
CD-2   WIN (3/8/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00  2 $12.98 $4.98 62%
    EXA (3/8/2/5)-(3/8/2/5) 12 $2.00 $24.00  2-8 $52.66 $28.66 119%
    DD (7/1/4)-(3/8/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00  4-2 $57.07 $45.07 376%
CD-5   WIN (9/8/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00  6 $21.82 $13.82 173%
    EXA (9/8/1/6)-(9/8/1/6) 12 $2.00 $24.00  6-9 $55.84 $31.84 133%
CD-6   WIN (3) 1 $2.00 $2.00  3 $2.76 $0.76 38%
    DD (9/8/1/6)-(3) 4 $1.00 $4.00  6-3 $14.91 $10.91 273%
CD-7   WIN (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00  2 $7.90 $1.90 32%
    DD (3)-(5/2/4) 3 $1.00 $3.00  3-2 $5.96 $2.96 99%
    PK3 (9/8/1/6)-(3)-(5/2/4) 12 $0.50 $6.00  6-3-2 $33.07 $27.07 451%
CD-8   PK3 (3)-(5/2/4)-(9/3/8/1/2) 15 $0.50 $7.50  3-2-9 $13.29 $5.79 77%
CD-9   WIN (11/3/9/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00  9 $21.72 $13.72 172%
    DD (9/3/8/1/2)-(11/3/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00  9-9 $35.78 $15.78 79%
    PK3 (5/2/4)-(9/3/8/1/2)-(11/3/9/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00  2-9-9 $142.38 $112.38 375%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:222 :462 :59     1:122   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  SMOOTHDINI 3 5 54½ 44½   34 1½ (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 9% 10.20 5.93 W
10  TAPITBOY 6 1 11 11½   12½ 2½ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 1.67  
3  METRONOME 2 3 41½ 21½   22½ 31½ (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 119 4.00 2.15  
5  POINT AT YOU 4 4 21 32½   46 49¼ (claire alex)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00 11.40  
7  CASINO BOSS 5 2 31½ 57½   59 510¼ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 51% 1.00 3.19  
1  DIFFERENT FLAME 1 6 65½ 69½   611 610¾ (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00 9% 10.20 16.35  
SCR  CAPO               (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 10.00    
SCR  MASTER OF DISGUISE               (ennis john)MCENTEE GRACE 119 5.00    
SCR  MR BIG STUFF (GB)               (puhich mike)TORRES A 114 10.00    
SCR  WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE               (ennis john)HEARD TYLER 119 5.00    
 
CD-2   09/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:23 :453 1:10     1:232   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  SANTA CRUISER 2 1 2½ 2nk   1½ 11 (cano juan)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50 11% 8.50 5.49 W
8  HERD IMMUNITY 8 8 85¼ 65½   43½ 21 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121 6.00 18% 4.70 3.10 P
1  AFTER FIVE 1 7 41½ 42½   33 31½ (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 2.50 2.33  
4  POPULIST 4 3 1½ 1nk   2½ 42¼ (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 10.77  
3  TWO WORLDS 3 2 3½ 31½   54 53¼ (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 3.00 47% 1.10 3.52  
5  STEINBECK 5 6 51¾ 53   66 66 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 10.00 5% 19.00 10.00  
6  FERRYBOAT 6 4 72¾ 88¾   811½ 712¾ (miller jero)PETERSON FERRIN 121 20.00 44.70  
7  KHOZAN'S SUCCESS 7 5 62¾ 75¾   79 813¼ (lauer mi)SANTANA JR 121 10.00 9.41  
 
CD-3   09/29/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:231 :464 1:114 1:382   1:45   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  MY GOOD FORTUNE 4 6 79 79½ 67½ 42½ 1¼ (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 122 5.00 5.21  
2  LITTLE DIXIE 2 7 66 66 55½ 32 2¼ (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 3.81  
3  LUNA MOTH 3 4 21½ 22 21½ 11½ 3¾ (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 3.00 2.28  
5  PACHANGA LOCA 5 5 11½ 12 11½ 21½ 44½ (gutierrez)TORRES A 118 2.50 52% 0.90 2.12  
1  LADY WITH A CAUSE 1 1 53½ 33 33 54 55 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 12% 7.60 10.09  
6  JUDY'S MS. OFFICER 6 3 43 43½ 45 68 617½ (reavis mic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 15.00 9% 9.70 12.38  
7  MAGIC PALACE 7 2 33 53½ 710 711 725¾ (forster t)GRAHAM J 122 10.00 17.48  
 
CD-4   09/29/2023 3300ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:224 :461       :583   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  CEEPEEGEE 3 1 1nk 2½   1nk 11 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 32.31  
  (by ARMY MULE out of DANCE FOR DADDY by SCAT DADDY)
2  LIGHTNING MYQUEEN 2 4 32 32½   32½ 21 (casse mark)CARROLL DECLAN 116 15.00 18.54  
  (by PALACE MALICE out of C J'S GAL by AWESOME AGAIN)
6  SPIRIT'S MISCHIEF 6 6 2nk 1½   2nk 34¾ (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 18% 4.50 2.09 S
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of STAVE by GHOSTZAPPER)
9  BYE BYE LIAM 9 10 106½ 78   67¾ 46 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 15.81  
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of GRAMMAJO by STREET SENSE)
5  NORWICH 5 3 42¼ 66½   57¼ 56¼ (devaux ch)TORRES A 119 4.50 19% 4.30 2.62  
  (by MUNNINGS out of ABOVE THE CROWD by DISCREETLY MINE)
10  NUMERO SIETE 10 8 52¼ 45   47 66¾ (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 5% 19.00 13.76  
  (by HARD SPUN out of TENACIOUS TINA by BENCHMARK)
7  KING OF THE PALACE 7 5 62½ 56½   77¾ 78 (tracy tann)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 6.00 35% 1.80 6.20  
  (by PALACE MALICE out of SIRCAT SALLY by SURF CAT)
11  BIG FIG 11 12 75 88½   810¼ 813 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 5% 19.00 8.61  
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SUDDEN FAME by WESTERN FAME)
12  THEZELENSKYYFACTOR 12 11 85½ 98¾   911¾ 914 (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00 10.05  
  (by THE FACTOR out of WEEKEND SKY by FUJI KISEKI (JPN))
4  LOMACHENKO 4 2 118½ 1114¼   1116¾ 1017¼ (beckman whitwort)GRAHAM J 119 20.00 38.18  
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CORDELHIA by AUSTRALIA (GB))
8  BIG HUNGRY 8 7 95½ 1011¾   1014¾ 1117¾ (forster gr)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00 36.67  
  (by PALACE MALICE out of NAVY GARDENS by STORM CAT)
1  IRISH MOON 1 9 128½ 1216¼   1219¼ 1222¼ (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00 48.61  
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of IRELAND by AFLEET ALEX)
SCR  HONKY TONK HIGHWAY               (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SHARED HUMOR by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  KING BUKELE               (torres erick )DELCID MARLON 109 30.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of SUPER CUB by OLD TRIESTE)
SCR  RUNNIN' ROCKET               (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 6.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of CORPS DE BALLET by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  THUNDER BALL               (o'neill d)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
  (by MITOLE out of STRIKE ACCORD by SMART STRIKE)
 
CD-5   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:22 :451 :57     1:091   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  TEE BURNS 5 5 53¼ 42¼   22 1¾ (reavis mic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 8.00 5% 19.00 9.91 W
9  TAPE TO TAPE 8 2 11½ 12   12 2¾ (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 121 2.50 51% 1.00 1.09 P
5  FLAGS UP 4 8 86¼ 86   66¼ 33¼ (baker james)LANERIE J 121 15.00 7.20  
8  SAMURAI PRINCE 7 1 41¾ 22   43½ 43¼ (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 121 8.00 15% 5.80 16.33  
3  FRIAR LAURENCE 3 3 21½ 32   33½ 53½ (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00 13.05  
2  UPSTRIKER 2 4 31½ 53¼   53¾ 66¼ (rice linda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 4.11  
1  EMERALD EXPRESS 1 7 63¾ 75¾   77¼ 76¼ (ramirez l)TORRES A 121 5.00 13% 6.80 8.26  
7  SENOR JOBIM 6 6 74¼ 65¾   88¼ 86½ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 8.00 10.26  
SCR  DON'T WAIT UP               (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 121 15.00    
 
CD-6   09/29/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:241 :48 1:122 1:372   1:44   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  HEARTYCONSTITUTION 1 3 1½ 1½ 11 12 14½ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 58% 0.70 0.38 W
4  SOUL OF AN ANGEL 2 2 32 31½ 31½ 22 24½ (james geral)WILLIAMS AJHARI 122 5.00 2.19  
6  JUNGLE JUICE (IRE) 3 1 2½ 2½ 21 33½ 37 (meah m)MCENTEE GRACE 122 12.00 4.67  
SCR  MISS NEW YORK               (delgado )SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
SCR  FANNIE AND FREDDIE               (stall alb)TORRES A 124 8.00    
SCR  ROYAL TAKE CHARGE               (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 2.00    
SCR  BHOMA               (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
 
CD-7   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:212 :444 :57     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  PROMISES TO DANCE 1 2 11½ 11   12 1¼ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00 21% 3.70 2.95 W
3  STREET JAM 2 5 53½ 42   22 2¼ (wilkes r)LANERIE J 121 5.00 6.97  
8  STORY HOUR 7 1 64 64   54½ 33½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 2.50 4.45  
4  LITTLE SISTER SUE 3 7 75 74½   44½ 43¾ (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 123 15.00 13% 6.90 19.21  
5  CORNER KICK 4 6 42 21   34 54 (diodoro r)TORRES A 120 1.60 37% 1.70 1.20  
6  PUNCHY GIRL 5 4 21½ 31½   65½ 610¾ (morse rand)MICHEL MICKAELLE 121 15.00 37.76  
7  MARGOINABUBBLEBATH 6 3 31½ 52½   711 733½ (habeeb j)GRAHAM J 118 12.00 7.20  
SCR  HOLIDAY DECISION               (delacruz meji)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
 
CD-8   09/29/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:242 :49 1:141 1:271   1:40   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  GAVEA (GER) 9 8 32½ 44 44 11½ 1nk (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 35% 1.80 1.91 W
8  MO FOX GIVIN 8 10 107 88¾ 54¼ 21½ 2nk (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00 10% 9.50 2.72 P
4  APRIL'S DIAMANTE 4 2 11½ 1nk 2nk 31½ 34¼ (gutierrez)TORRES A 120 5.00 4.22  
2  MO SENSE 2 6 75¼ 109¼ 810¾ 67½ 44¾ (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 120 10.00 5% 19.00 12.54  
7  MILA JUNES 7 7 86¼ 77¼ 78¾ 78 55¾ (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 120 12.00 55.23  
10  STAIRSTEP TOHEAVEN 10 4 62¾ 2nk 1nk 42 66 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 120 10.00 34.98  
5  CAT'S CAVE 5 3 21½ 32 33 54½ 76¼ (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120 8.00 18.43  
3  CATHOLIC GAL 3 1 42½ 54¼ 67¼ 89½ 810 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 120 4.50 21% 3.70 10.31  
6  EASY RED 6 9 96½ 98¾ 1011¾ 914½ 923¾ (o'neill dou)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 3.50 9.57  
1  GO MARGIE GO 1 5 52¾ 65¼ 911¾ 1021½ 1047½ (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00 5% 17.70 17.13  
SCR  PEIGNOIR               (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50    
 
CD-9   09/29/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:223 :451 1:091     1:153   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  OSBOURNE 9 7 31½ 21½   2nk 11 (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 121 6.00 16% 5.20 9.86 W
8  SKY AND SAND 8 2 1nk 11½   1nk 21 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 5.00 3.32  
1  ANGKOR 1 6 41¾ 53¾   42 31¼ (bauer a)BEJARANO R 123 3.50 1.86  
5  W W CANDY 5 1 74¼ 96¼   86¾ 43 (quinonez max)LEZCANO ABEL 121 12.00 5% 19.00 20.72  
6  MAC DADDY TOO 6 3 2nk 31½   31½ 54 (casse no)SANTANA JR 121 6.00 ★ 11.47  
11  BOURBON HEIST 10 5 95¼ 86¼   96¾ 64¼ (wilkes ian)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 29% 2.40 8.16  
4  BROKEN RIB 4 8 84¾ 43½   54 74¼ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 14.61  
7  MIDNIGHT ESCAPE 7 4 52¾ 64¾   66 86 (hernandez j)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 30.00 61.35  
2  CALL ME MIDNIGHT 2 9 64¼ 75¾   76¼ 99½ (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 30.00 28.65  
3  UNDER OATH 3 10 105¾ 106½   108¼ 1013 (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 25% 3.00 4.24  
SCR  FAN CLUB               (forster grant)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 30.00    
 
CD-10   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:26
See original race card.
:213 :451 :574     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  HONOR MARIE 9 8 95½ 85¾   65 1nk (beckman whitwo)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 13.67  
  (by HONOR CODE out of DAME MARIE by SMART STRIKE)
7  BOURBON BOSS 7 1 11 11½   12½ 2nk (mott rile)TORRES A 119 2.50 40% 1.50 2.20 P
  (by STREET BOSS out of ARISIA by DECLARATION OF WAR)
8  RUN JALEN RUN 8 4 51¼ 21½   22½ 3¼ (sharp joe)TORRES A 114 10.00 12.36  
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ANALYZE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
3  ANTHONIAN 3 2 61¾ 32½   33 41½ (morse l)LANERIE J 119 10.00 12.86  
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of MISS ANDORRA by MALIBU MOON)
1  LUCKY JEREMY 1 3 31 53   44 52 (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 13.51  
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of POWDER N BLUSH by WAR CHANT)
4  DASHMAN 4 9 83½ 63¼   54½ 62½ (lynch bria)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 5% 19.00 7.70  
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of FLY BY by JOHAR)
2  WISH CAREFULLY 2 6 72 74¼   76 76½ (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 ★ 3.47  
  (by MITOLE out of FORGIVENESS by MEADOWLAKE)
5  CONNIVING 5 5 21 43   89 816½ (chapman ja)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 35% 1.90 5.26  
  (by CONNECT out of STARLET STORM by THE FACTOR)
6  WISTUCKY 6 7 41¼ 98¾   915 924½ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 7.46  
  (by NYQUIST out of MALIBU PRINCESS by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  FEAR AND LOATHING               (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of SALLY POLLOCK HIGH by SENOR SWINGER)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.