Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Friday - September 29, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (7/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $13.86 $13.86 7.86
CD-2   Win (3/8/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 1 $12.98 $12.98 4.98
CD-3   Win (5/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $12.42  
CD-4   Win (7/5/6/10/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 3 1 0 $66.62  
CD-5   Win (9/8/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 6 1 1 $21.82 $21.82 13.82
CD-6   Win (3) 1 $2.00 $2.00 3 1 1 $2.76 $2.76 0.76
CD-7   Win (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $7.90 $7.90 1.90
CD-8   Win (9/3/8/1/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 9 1 1 $5.82 $5.82  
CD-9   Win (11/3/9/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 9 1 1 $21.72 $21.72 13.72
CD-10   Win (7/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 9 1 0 $29.34  

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:222 :462 :59     1:122   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SMOOTHDINI 3 5 5 4   34 1½ (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 9% 10.20 5.93 W
10  TAPITBOY 6 1 11 1   1 2½ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 1.67  
METRONOME 2 3 4 2   2 3 (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 119 4.00 2.15  
POINT AT YOU 4 4 21 3   46 4 (claire alexis)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00 11.40  
CASINO BOSS 5 2 3 5   59 510¼ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 51% 1.00 3.19  
DIFFERENT FLAME 1 6 6 6   611 610¾ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00 9% 10.20 16.35  
SCR  CAPO               (rivelli larr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 10.00    
SCR  MASTER OF DISGUISE               (ennis john)MCENTEE GRACE 119 5.00    
SCR  MR BIG STUFF (GB)               (puhich mike)TORRES A 114 10.00    
SCR  WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE               (ennis john)HEARD TYLER 119 5.00    
 
CD-2   09/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:23 :453 1:10     1:232   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SANTA CRUISER 2 1 2½ 2nk   1½ 11 (cano m)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50 11% 8.50 5.49 W
HERD IMMUNITY 8 8 8 6   4 21 (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 121 6.00 18% 4.70 3.10 P
AFTER FIVE 1 7 4 4   33 3 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 121 2.50 2.33  
POPULIST 4 3 1½ 1nk   2½ 4 (moquett rona)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 10.77  
TWO WORLDS 3 2 3½ 3   54 5 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 121 3.00 47% 1.10 3.52  
STEINBECK 5 6 5 53   66 66 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 121 10.00 5% 19.00 10.00  
FERRYBOAT 6 4 7 8   811½ 712¾ (miller jerome)PETERSON FERRIN 121 20.00 44.70  
KHOZAN'S SUCCESS 7 5 6 7   79 813¼ (lauer mich)SANTANA JR 121 10.00 9.41  
 
CD-3   09/29/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:231 :464 1:114 1:382   1:45   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MY GOOD FORTUNE 4 6 79 7 6 4 1¼ (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 122 5.00 5.21  
LITTLE DIXIE 2 7 66 66 5 32 2¼ (moquett rona)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 3.81  
LUNA MOTH 3 4 2 22 2 1 3¾ (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 118 3.00 2.28  
PACHANGA LOCA 5 5 1 12 1 2 4 (gutierrez f)TORRES A 118 2.50 52% 0.90 2.12  
LADY WITH A CAUSE 1 1 5 33 33 54 55 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 12% 7.60 10.09  
JUDY'S MS. OFFICER 6 3 43 4 45 68 617½ (reavis micha)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 15.00 9% 9.70 12.38  
MAGIC PALACE 7 2 33 5 710 711 725¾ (forster t)GRAHAM J 122 10.00 17.48  
 
CD-4   09/29/2023 3300ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:224 :461       :583   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CEEPEEGEE 3 1 1nk 2½   1nk 11 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 32.31  
LIGHTNING MYQUEEN 2 4 32 3   3 21 (casse mark)CARROLL DECLAN 116 15.00 18.54  
SPIRIT'S MISCHIEF 6 6 2nk 1½   2nk 3 (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 18% 4.50 2.09 S
BYE BYE LIAM 9 10 10 78   6 46 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 15.81  
NORWICH 5 3 4 6   5 5 (devaux cher)TORRES A 119 4.50 19% 4.30 2.62  
10  NUMERO SIETE 10 8 5 45   47 6 (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 5% 19.00 13.76  
KING OF THE PALACE 7 5 6 5   7 78 (tracy tanner)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 6.00 35% 1.80 6.20  
11  BIG FIG 11 12 75 8   810¼ 813 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 5% 19.00 8.61  
12  THEZELENSKYYFACTOR 12 11 8 9   911¾ 914 (stall albert )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00 10.05  
LOMACHENKO 4 2 11 1114¼   1116¾ 1017¼ (beckman whitworth)GRAHAM J 119 20.00 38.18  
BIG HUNGRY 8 7 9 1011¾   1014¾ 1117¾ (forster gran)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00 36.67  
IRISH MOON 1 9 12 1216¼   1219¼ 1222¼ (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00 48.61  
SCR  HONKY TONK HIGHWAY               (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
SCR  KING BUKELE               (torres al)DELCID MARLON 109 30.00    
SCR  RUNNIN' ROCKET               (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 6.00    
SCR  THUNDER BALL               (o'neill dou)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
 
CD-5   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:22 :451 :57     1:091   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TEE BURNS 5 5 5 4   22 1¾ (reavis micha)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 8.00 5% 19.00 9.91 W
TAPE TO TAPE 8 2 1 12   12 2¾ (rivelli larr)CORRALES GERARDO 121 2.50 51% 1.00 1.09 P
FLAGS UP 4 8 8 86   6 3 (baker james)LANERIE J 121 15.00 7.20  
SAMURAI PRINCE 7 1 4 22   4 4 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 121 8.00 15% 5.80 16.33  
FRIAR LAURENCE 3 3 2 32   3 5 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00 13.05  
UPSTRIKER 2 4 3 5   5 6 (rice linda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 4.11  
EMERALD EXPRESS 1 7 6 7   7 7 (ramirez lui)TORRES A 121 5.00 13% 6.80 8.26  
SENOR JOBIM 6 6 7 6   8 8 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 121 8.00 10.26  
SCR  DON'T WAIT UP               (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 121 15.00    
 
CD-6   09/29/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:241 :48 1:122 1:372   1:44   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HEARTYCONSTITUTION 1 3 1½ 1½ 11 12 1 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 58% 0.70 0.38 W
SOUL OF AN ANGEL 2 2 32 3 3 22 2 (james gerald)WILLIAMS AJHARI 122 5.00 2.19  
JUNGLE JUICE (IRE) 3 1 2½ 2½ 21 3 37 (meah m)MCENTEE GRACE 122 12.00 4.67  
SCR  MISS NEW YORK               (delgado jo)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
SCR  FANNIE AND FREDDIE               (stall alber)TORRES A 124 8.00    
SCR  ROYAL TAKE CHARGE               (stall albert )GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 2.00    
SCR  BHOMA               (catalano wa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
 
CD-7   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:212 :444 :57     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PROMISES TO DANCE 1 2 1 11   12 1¼ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00 21% 3.70 2.95 W
STREET JAM 2 5 5 42   22 2¼ (wilkes r)LANERIE J 121 5.00 6.97  
STORY HOUR 7 1 64 64   5 3 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 2.50 4.45  
LITTLE SISTER SUE 3 7 75 7   4 4 (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 123 15.00 13% 6.90 19.21  
CORNER KICK 4 6 42 21   34 54 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 120 1.60 37% 1.70 1.20  
PUNCHY GIRL 5 4 2 3   6 610¾ (morse randy )MICHEL MICKAELLE 121 15.00 37.76  
MARGOINABUBBLEBATH 6 3 3 5   711 733½ (habeeb j)GRAHAM J 118 12.00 7.20  
SCR  HOLIDAY DECISION               (delacruz mejia )MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
 
CD-8   09/29/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:242 :49 1:141 1:271   1:40   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GAVEA (GER) 9 8 3 44 44 1 1nk (stall albert)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 35% 1.80 1.91 W
MO FOX GIVIN 8 10 107 8 5 2 2nk (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00 10% 9.50 2.72 P
APRIL'S DIAMANTE 4 2 1 1nk 2nk 3 3 (gutierrez f)TORRES A 120 5.00 4.22  
MO SENSE 2 6 7 10 810¾ 6 4 (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 120 10.00 5% 19.00 12.54  
MILA JUNES 7 7 8 7 7 78 5 (evans michael )ARAGON ROLANDO 120 12.00 55.23  
10  STAIRSTEP TOHEAVEN 10 4 6 2nk 1nk 42 66 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 120 10.00 34.98  
CAT'S CAVE 5 3 2 32 33 5 7 (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 120 8.00 18.43  
CATHOLIC GAL 3 1 4 5 6 8 810 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 120 4.50 21% 3.70 10.31  
EASY RED 6 9 9 9 1011¾ 914½ 923¾ (o'neill doug)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 3.50 9.57  
GO MARGIE GO 1 5 5 6 911¾ 1021½ 1047½ (rivelli larr)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00 5% 17.70 17.13  
SCR  PEIGNOIR               (brisset rodolphe)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50    
 
CD-9   09/29/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:223 :451 1:091     1:153   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OSBOURNE 9 7 3 2   2nk 11 (moquett ron)LEPAROUX R 121 6.00 16% 5.20 9.86 W
SKY AND SAND 8 2 1nk 1   1nk 21 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 121 5.00 3.32  
ANGKOR 1 6 4 5   42 3 (bauer a)BEJARANO R 123 3.50 1.86  
W W CANDY 5 1 7 9   8 43 (quinonez max)LEZCANO ABEL 121 12.00 5% 19.00 20.72  
MAC DADDY TOO 6 3 2nk 3   3 54 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 121 6.00 11.47  
11  BOURBON HEIST 10 5 9 8   9 6 (wilkes r)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 29% 2.40 8.16  
BROKEN RIB 4 8 8 4   54 7 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 14.61  
MIDNIGHT ESCAPE 7 4 5 6   66 86 (hernandez jav)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 30.00 61.35  
CALL ME MIDNIGHT 2 9 6 7   7 9 (desormeaux j)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 30.00 28.65  
UNDER OATH 3 10 10 10   10 1013 (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 25% 3.00 4.24  
SCR  FAN CLUB               (forster t)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 30.00    
 
CD-10   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:26
See original race card.
:213 :451 :574     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HONOR MARIE 9 8 9 8   65 1nk (beckman whitwort)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 13.67  
BOURBON BOSS 7 1 11 1   1 2nk (mott riley)TORRES A 119 2.50 40% 1.50 2.20 P
RUN JALEN RUN 8 4 5 2   2 3¼ (sharp joe)TORRES A 114 10.00 12.36  
ANTHONIAN 3 2 6 3   33 4 (morse l)LANERIE J 119 10.00 12.86  
LUCKY JEREMY 1 3 31 53   44 52 (morey willia)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 13.51  
DASHMAN 4 9 8 6   5 6 (lynch brian )MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 5% 19.00 7.70  
WISH CAREFULLY 2 6 72 7   76 7 (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 3.47  
CONNIVING 5 5 21 43   89 816½ (chapman jame)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 35% 1.90 5.26  
WISTUCKY 6 7 4 9   915 924½ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 7.46  
SCR  FEAR AND LOATHING               (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.