Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - September 29, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (7/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/1/4)-(7/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/1/4)-(7/1/4)-(7/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/1/4)-(3/8/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/1/4)-(3/8/2/5)-(5/1/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/8/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/2/5)-(3/8/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/8/2/5)-(3/8/2/5)-(3/8/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/8/2/5)-(5/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/8/2/5)-(5/1/6)-(7/5/6/10/11) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/6)-(5/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/6)-(5/1/6)-(5/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/6)-(7/5/6/10/11) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/1/6)-(7/5/6/10/11)-(9/8/1/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (7/5/6/10/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/5/6/10/11)-(7/5/6/10/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/5/6/10/11)-(7/5/6/10/11)-(7/5/6/10/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/5/6/10/11)-(9/8/1/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/5/6/10/11)-(9/8/1/6)-(3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-5   WIN (9/8/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/8/1/6)-(9/8/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/8/1/6)-(9/8/1/6)-(9/8/1/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/8/1/6)-(3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (9/8/1/6)-(3)-(5/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-6   WIN (3) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3)-(5/2/4) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (3)-(5/2/4)-(9/3/8/1/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-7   WIN (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/4)-(5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/4)-(9/3/8/1/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/2/4)-(9/3/8/1/2)-(11/3/9/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/3/8/1/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/3/8/1/2)-(9/3/8/1/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/3/8/1/2)-(9/3/8/1/2)-(9/3/8/1/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/3/8/1/2)-(11/3/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/3/8/1/2)-(11/3/9/5)-(7/5/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-9   WIN (11/3/9/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/3/9/5)-(11/3/9/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (11/3/9/5)-(11/3/9/6/5)-(11/3/9/6/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (11/3/9/5)-(7/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-10   WIN (7/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/4)-(7/5/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/5/4)-(7/5/2/4)-(7/5/2/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIFFERENT FLAME         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00 9% 10.20    
SCR  WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE Jul12 Jun16 May04     (ennis john)HEARD TYLER 119 5.00    
3  METRONOME Sep03 Aug07       (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 119 4.00    
4  SMOOTHDINI         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 9% 10.20    
5  POINT AT YOU Aug26         (claire alex)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
SCR  MASTER OF DISGUISE Sep13 Aug09 Jul12 Jun22   (ennis john)MCENTEE GRACE 119 5.00    
7  CASINO BOSS         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 51% 1.00    
SCR  MR BIG STUFF (GB)         (puhich mike)TORRES A 114 10.00    
SCR  CAPO Aug09         (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 10.00    
10  TAPITBOY Aug20         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50    
 
CD-2   09/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AFTER FIVE Aug02 Jul07 Jun15 Apr20 Mar11 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 2.50    
2  SANTA CRUISER Sep17 Aug20 Jul22 Jul08 Jun17 (cano juan)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50 11% 8.50    
3  TWO WORLDS Aug16 Aug02 Jun21 May31 Apr12 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 3.00 47% 1.10    
4  POPULIST Jul29 Jul14 Jun04 Apr19 Mar24 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00    
5  STEINBECK Jul22 Jul09 May12 Apr08 Mar19 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  FERRYBOAT Sep01 Jul19 Jul01 Jun15 May20 (miller jero)PETERSON FERRIN 121 20.00    
7  KHOZAN'S SUCCESS Sep13 Aug05 May25 Apr23 Aug30 (lauer mi)SANTANA JR 121 10.00    
8  HERD IMMUNITY Jun18 May03 Mar24 Mar03 Jan15 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121 6.00 18% 4.70    
 
CD-3   09/29/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY WITH A CAUSE Aug11 Jun11 Apr20 Mar16 Feb16 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 12% 7.60    
2  LITTLE DIXIE Aug19 Jun11 Apr23 Mar03 Jan21 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50    
3  LUNA MOTH Aug24 Jun24 May25 May02 Apr19 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 3.00    
4  MY GOOD FORTUNE Jul26 Jul06 May23 Dec08 Nov18 (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 122 5.00    
5  PACHANGA LOCA Aug17 Jul21 Jun01 Apr28 Mar09 (gutierrez)TORRES A 118 2.50 52% 0.90    
6  JUDY'S MS. OFFICER Aug24 Aug06 Jul12 Jun14 Jun08 (reavis mic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 15.00 9% 9.70    
7  MAGIC PALACE Aug23 Aug01 Jun29 Jun03 May05 (forster t)GRAHAM J 122 10.00    
 
CD-4   09/29/2023 3300ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IRISH MOON         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00    
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of IRELAND by AFLEET ALEX)
2  LIGHTNING MYQUEEN         (casse mark)CARROLL DECLAN 116 15.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of C J'S GAL by AWESOME AGAIN)
3  CEEPEEGEE Aug20         (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of DANCE FOR DADDY by SCAT DADDY)
4  LOMACHENKO         (beckman whitwort)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CORDELHIA by AUSTRALIA (GB))
5  NORWICH         (devaux ch)TORRES A 119 4.50 19% 4.30    
  (by MUNNINGS out of ABOVE THE CROWD by DISCREETLY MINE)
6  SPIRIT'S MISCHIEF         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 18% 4.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of STAVE by GHOSTZAPPER)
7  KING OF THE PALACE Aug20 Jul17       (tracy tann)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 6.00 35% 1.80    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of SIRCAT SALLY by SURF CAT)
8  BIG HUNGRY         (forster gr)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of NAVY GARDENS by STORM CAT)
9  BYE BYE LIAM         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of GRAMMAJO by STREET SENSE)
10  NUMERO SIETE         (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of TENACIOUS TINA by BENCHMARK)
11  BIG FIG         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SUDDEN FAME by WESTERN FAME)
12  THEZELENSKYYFACTOR         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of WEEKEND SKY by FUJI KISEKI (JPN))
SCR  HONKY TONK HIGHWAY Aug20         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SHARED HUMOR by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  KING BUKELE Sep16 Sep02 Jul30     (torres erick )DELCID MARLON 109 30.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of SUPER CUB by OLD TRIESTE)
SCR  RUNNIN' ROCKET Aug20 Jul15       (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 6.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of CORPS DE BALLET by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  THUNDER BALL Sep02 Jul30       (o'neill d)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
  (by MITOLE out of STRIKE ACCORD by SMART STRIKE)
 
CD-5   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EMERALD EXPRESS Jun30 May26 May04 Feb10 Jan08 (ramirez l)TORRES A 121 5.00 13% 6.80    
2  UPSTRIKER Aug27 Jun30 May25 Apr15 Apr02 (rice linda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00    
3  FRIAR LAURENCE Sep05 Jun25 May29 Apr26 Mar23 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00    
SCR  DON'T WAIT UP Aug17 Jul07 Jun18 Jun01 May08 (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 121 15.00    
5  FLAGS UP Jun11 May25 May06 Mar30 Mar04 (baker james)LANERIE J 121 15.00    
6  TEE BURNS Aug09 Jul26 Jul09 May31 May18 (reavis mic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  SENOR JOBIM Sep04 Aug13 Jul22 Feb12 Nov06 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 8.00    
8  SAMURAI PRINCE Aug27 Aug19 Jul15 Jun07 May17 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 121 8.00 15% 5.80    
9  TAPE TO TAPE Aug20 Jul27 Jul03 Jun09 Apr29 (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 121 2.50 51% 1.00    
 
CD-6   09/29/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BHOMA Aug31 Aug10 Jul14 May18 Apr12 (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
SCR  MISS NEW YORK Jul29 Jul02 Jun10 May19 Mar25 (delgado )SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
3  HEARTYCONSTITUTION Aug25 Jul08 Jun02 May05 Mar15 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 58% 0.70    
4  SOUL OF AN ANGEL Sep16 Aug06 Jul08 Jun24 Jun03 (james geral)WILLIAMS AJHARI 122 5.00    
SCR  FANNIE AND FREDDIE Sep16 Jul30 Jun22 May05 Feb12 (stall alb)TORRES A 124 8.00    
6  JUNGLE JUICE (IRE) Jul08 Jul01 May27 May12 Apr21 (meah m)MCENTEE GRACE 122 12.00    
SCR  ROYAL TAKE CHARGE Aug19 Jul08 May27 Apr21 Jan16 (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 2.00    
 
CD-7   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HOLIDAY DECISION Jul26 Jul14 Jun10 May19 Apr26 (delacruz meji)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
2  PROMISES TO DANCE Feb23 Dec01 Oct13 Sep25 Mar26 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00 21% 3.70    
3  STREET JAM Sep02 Jul22 May13 Apr15 Mar24 (wilkes r)LANERIE J 121 5.00    
4  LITTLE SISTER SUE Sep13 Aug31 Aug08 Jun11 May29 (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 123 15.00 13% 6.90    
5  CORNER KICK Aug31 Jul29 Jun15 May16 Feb26 (diodoro r)TORRES A 120 1.60 37% 1.70    
6  PUNCHY GIRL Aug01 Jul08 Dec30 May06 Apr09 (morse rand)MICHEL MICKAELLE 121 15.00    
7  MARGOINABUBBLEBATH Jul07 Jun03 May05 Apr14 Mar24 (habeeb j)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
8  STORY HOUR Aug26 May21 Apr27 Mar02 Jan18 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 2.50    
 
CD-8   09/29/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GO MARGIE GO Aug10         (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00 5% 17.70    
2  MO SENSE Aug10         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  CATHOLIC GAL Jul19         (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 120 4.50 21% 3.70    
4  APRIL'S DIAMANTE Aug24 May25       (gutierrez)TORRES A 120 5.00    
5  CAT'S CAVE Aug02 Jul01 Jun10     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120 8.00    
6  EASY RED Aug13 Jul02 May27     (o'neill dou)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 3.50    
7  MILA JUNES Aug20 Jun16       (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 120 12.00    
8  MO FOX GIVIN Aug12         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00 10% 9.50    
9  GAVEA (GER)         (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 35% 1.80    
10  STAIRSTEP TOHEAVEN Jul29 Jul16 Jun10 Apr26   (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 120 10.00    
SCR  PEIGNOIR Aug26 Jul31       (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50    
 
CD-9   09/29/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ANGKOR Aug05 May21 May03 Mar25 Feb24 (bauer a)BEJARANO R 123 3.50    
2  CALL ME MIDNIGHT Jul30 Jul01 Jun04 Nov26 Oct23 (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 30.00    
3  UNDER OATH May14 Apr16 Mar04 Aug24 Jul23 (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 25% 3.00    
4  BROKEN RIB Aug04 Jul01 May25 Feb12 Jan16 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00    
5  W W CANDY Sep05 Aug20 Jul27 Jun27 Jun14 (quinonez max)LEZCANO ABEL 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  MAC DADDY TOO Jul09 Jun18 May19 Apr16 Feb18 (casse no)SANTANA JR 121 6.00 ★    
7  MIDNIGHT ESCAPE Sep03 Aug16 Jul27 Jul01 Jun14 (hernandez j)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 30.00    
8  SKY AND SAND Aug26 Aug04 Jun22 May05 Apr08 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 5.00    
9  OSBOURNE Aug26 Jul29 Apr01 Feb25 Jan20 (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 121 6.00 16% 5.20    
SCR  FAN CLUB Jan07 Nov25 Oct21 Sep24 Aug06 (forster grant)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 30.00    
11  BOURBON HEIST Jul21 Jun22 May14 Apr28 Mar10 (wilkes ian)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 29% 2.40    
 
CD-10   09/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUCKY JEREMY         (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of POWDER N BLUSH by WAR CHANT)
2  WISH CAREFULLY         (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 ★    
  (by MITOLE out of FORGIVENESS by MEADOWLAKE)
3  ANTHONIAN Sep10         (morse l)LANERIE J 119 10.00    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of MISS ANDORRA by MALIBU MOON)
4  DASHMAN         (lynch bria)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of FLY BY by JOHAR)
5  CONNIVING Sep11         (chapman ja)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 35% 1.90    
  (by CONNECT out of STARLET STORM by THE FACTOR)
6  WISTUCKY         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of MALIBU PRINCESS by MALIBU MOON)
7  BOURBON BOSS Sep02         (mott rile)TORRES A 119 2.50 40% 1.50    
  (by STREET BOSS out of ARISIA by DECLARATION OF WAR)
8  RUN JALEN RUN         (sharp joe)TORRES A 114 10.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ANALYZE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
9  HONOR MARIE         (beckman whitwo)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of DAME MARIE by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  FEAR AND LOATHING         (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of SALLY POLLOCK HIGH by SENOR SWINGER)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.