The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

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Ellis Park
Saturday - August 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (2/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $2.98 $2.98 -3.02
    Exacta (2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 3-6 2 1 $18.64 $18.64 6.64
    Trifecta (2/3/6)-(2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 3-6-4 3 0 $14.91 -3.00
ELP-2   Win (5/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $12.94 -6.00
    Exacta (5/3/6)-(5/3/6/8) 9 $2.00 $18.00 1-3 2 0 $31.82 -18.00
    Trifecta (5/3/6)-(5/3/6/8)-(5/3/6/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 1-3-5 3 0 $28.41 -9.00
    Daily Double (2/3/6)-(5/3/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 3-1 2 0 $9.40 -9.00
ELP-3   Win (2/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 0 $11.10 -6.00
    Exacta (2/3/7)-(2/3/4/7) 9 $2.00 $18.00 6-2 2 0 $66.84 -18.00
    Trifecta (2/3/7)-(2/3/4/7)-(2/3/4/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 6-2-4 3 0 $69.91 -9.00
    Daily Double (5/3/6)-(2/3/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 1-6 2 0 $64.39 -9.00
    Pick Three (2/3/6)-(5/3/6)-(2/3/7) 27 $0.50 $13.50 3-1-6 3 0 $51.52 -13.50
ELP-4   Win (6/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 1 $4.60 $4.60 -1.40
    Exacta (6/1/5)-(6/1/5) 6 $2.00 $12.00 6-4 2 0 $9.80 -12.00
    Trifecta (6/1/5)-(6/1/5)-(6/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 6-4-1 3 0 $8.35 -3.00
    Daily Double (2/3/7)-(6/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 6-6 2 0 $26.08 -9.00
    Pick Three (5/3/6)-(2/3/7)-(6/1/5) 27 $0.50 $13.50 1-6-6 3 0 $117.10 -13.50
ELP-5   Win (6/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 0 $28.84 -6.00
    Exacta (6/2/1)-(6/2/1/3) 9 $2.00 $18.00 7-4 2 0 $196.52 -18.00
    Trifecta (6/2/1)-(6/2/1/3)-(6/2/1/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 7-4-3 3 0 $337.59 -9.00
    Daily Double (6/1/5)-(6/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 6-7 2 0 $38.22 -9.00
    Pick Three (2/3/7)-(6/1/5)-(6/2/1) 27 $0.50 $13.50 6-6-7 3 0 $166.49 -13.50
ELP-6   Win (7/11/3/6/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 4 1 0 $23.50 -10.00
    Exacta (7/11/3/6/8)-(7/11/3/6/8) 20 $2.00 $40.00 4-1 2 0 $201.80 -40.00
    Trifecta (7/11/3/6/8)-(7/11/3/6/8)-(7/11/3/6/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 4-1-5 3 0 $430.27 -30.00
    Daily Double (6/2/1)-(7/11/3/6/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 7-4 2 0 $132.44 -15.00
    Pick Three (6/1/5)-(6/2/1)-(7/11/3/6/8) 45 $0.50 $22.50 6-7-4 3 0 $236.42 -22.50
ELP-7   Win (4/1/5/9/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 2 1 0 $10.08 -10.00
    Exacta (4/1/5/9/10)-(4/1/5/9/10) 20 $2.00 $40.00 2-4 2 0 $45.26 -40.00
    Trifecta (4/1/5/9/10)-(4/1/5/9/10)-(4/1/5/9/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 2-4-1 3 0 $45.69 -30.00
    Daily Double (7/11/3/6/8)-(4/1/5/9/10) 25 $1.00 $25.00 4-2 2 0 $56.41 -25.00
    Pick Three (6/2/1)-(7/11/3/6/8)-(4/1/5/9/10) 75 $0.50 $37.50 7-4-2 3 0 $830.18 -37.50
ELP-8   Win (1/5/3/7/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 3 1 1 $8.90 $8.90 -1.10
    Exacta (1/5/3/7/8)-(1/5/3/7/8) 20 $2.00 $40.00 3-7 2 1 $87.28 $87.28 47.28
    Trifecta (1/5/3/7/8)-(1/5/3/7/8)-(1/5/3/7/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 3-7-1 3 1 $71.57 $71.57 41.57
    Daily Double (4/1/5/9/10)-(1/5/3/7/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 2-3 2 0 $31.25 -25.00
    Pick Three (7/11/3/6/8)-(4/1/5/9/10)-(1/5/3/7/8) 125 $0.50 $62.50 4-2-3 3 0 $239.44 -62.50
ELP-9   Win (2/6/3/8/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 2 1 1 $5.82 $5.82 -4.18
    Exacta (2/6/3/8/5)-(2/6/3/8/5) 20 $2.00 $40.00 2-6 2 1 $23.12 $23.12 -16.88
    Trifecta (2/6/3/8/5)-(2/6/3/8/5)-(2/6/3/8/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 2-6-3 3 1 $18.61 $18.61 -11.39
    Daily Double (1/5/3/7/8)-(2/6/3/8/5) 25 $1.00 $25.00 3-2 2 1 $8.52 $8.52 -16.48
    Pick Three (4/1/5/9/10)-(1/5/3/7/8)-(2/6/3/8/5) 125 $0.50 $62.50 2-3-2 3 0 $38.85 -62.50
    Pick Three (4/1/5/9/10)-(1/5/3/7/8)-(2/6/3/8/5) 125 $3.00 $375.00 4-3-2 3 1 $742.47 $742.47 367.47

Simulator Race results

 
ELP-1   08/19/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
:24 :473 1:121 1:25   1:382   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LAMASCO 2 1 12 1 2½ 11(gutierrez f)TORRES A 122 2.00 22% 3.50 0.49 W
CENTER STAGE 5 3 22 2 1½ 22(foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 12.00 13% 6.60 11.78 P
COEXIST 3 2 4 44 4 337 (forster t)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 5.76  
WITS AND WAGERS 4 4 3 32 3 45 4(oliver victoria)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00 4.73  
LITTLE DIXIE 1 5 5 5 55 5511¾ (moquett ronald )CANNON DECLAN 118 3.50 30% 2.30 6.04  
SCR  SHELL SHOCK               (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 4.00    
 
ELP-2   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:17
:213 :433 :543     1:002   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHIMMER ME TIMBERS 1 4 1 1   11 1(gorostieta cir)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00 5.47  
AMERICAN MAYHEM 2 6 64 6   42 2(divito james)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 15% 5.60 1.56 P
MOUNSIEUR COCO 4 3 2 2   32 33 (gutierrez fausti)CHUAN MARTIN 118 2.50 52% 0.90 6.81 S
ATRAS 7 2 53 32   21 4(hewitt mich)TORRES A 122 4.00 4.55  
CHISELER 6 1 4 42   556 (foley greg)LANERIE J 122 2.00 2.56  
SAMURAI PRINCE 5 7 7 7   76(miller kenny)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00 5% 17.80 18.81  
MAHOMEY 3 5 3 5   64 78 (hewitt michael)EMIGH A 122 15.00 34.05  
SCR  CAPTIVATED DRAMA               (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 118 25.00    
SCR  CHATTALOT               (asmussen st)TORRES A 122 3.50    
 
ELP-3   08/19/2023 3630ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:48
:23 :462 :591     1:053   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FIBBER 6 7 54 4   31¾ (calhoun will)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 5.00 4.55  
CRUISE MISSILE 2 1 1½ 1nk   12¾ (diodoro rob)TORRES A 119 2.00 43% 1.40 2.99 P
SCRUPULOUS 4 3 44 5   53(brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 119 3.50 5.23 S
BRUNCH PUNCH 3 6 3 3.2   24(cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 30% 2.30 1.70  
ADALENE 5 2 2½ 2nk   4513 (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00 7.06  
C C GRAND 1 4 710 710¼   712½ 619¾ (lyster s)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 32.17  
I AM BEAUTIFUL 7 5 6 6   611 721 (flint s)LANERIE J 119 10.00 5% 19.00 9.33  
 
ELP-4   08/19/2023 4620ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:22
:23 :452 1:093     1:231   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MONEY RUN 5 1 1 1½   11 12 (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 2.50 50% 1.00 1.30 W
CAMP DADDY 3 2 3 2½   21 22 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 124 3.50 2.05  
DOG RED 1 5 42 4   34 3(contreras cipri)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00 20% 3.90 4.86 S
MODAZZLE 2 4 2 3   44 4(watkins jame)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00 11.90  
SCHMOOZIN 4 3 56 58   56 511 (pessin l)LANERIE J 122 5.00 5% 19.00 3.92  
SCR  CARMICHAEL               (diodoro robertin)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 3.00    
SCR  RAYMOND               (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00    
 
ELP-5   08/19/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:53
:24 :472 1:113 1:24   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SECRET POCKET 6 6 22 32 2nk 1½ 1¼ (peitz c)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00 13.42  
PRINCELY 4 4 5 43 4 32¼ (mcpeek kenn)TORRES A 118 3.50 4.34  
BACKSIDE BUZZ 3 1 12 1 1nk 2½ 3(vance d)LANERIE J 118 15.00 11.64 S
HURRY HURRY 5 7 79 7 6 55 44 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 62% 0.60 1.54  
CARNIVORE 2 2 33 2 3 457 (shorter aaron)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00 6% 14.90 7.71  
DEEP STATE 1 3 65 64 54 67 6(combs bentley)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 6.00 5% 19.00 4.83  
SEVEN FLAT 7 5 4 53 7 77(moquett rona)CORRALES GERARDO 124 3.00 4.06  
SCR  EMPERADOR               (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 122 6.00    
 
ELP-6   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:25
:214 :442 :553     1:013   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HEDWIG 4 6 5 5   11(harty eoin)GRAHAM J 119 6.00 10.75  
COMMITTEE OF ONE 1 5 6 6   52(asmussen st)TORRES A 119 6.00 14.64  
DOUBLE YOUR MONEY 5 4 3½ 4   32 3(lynch brian )ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00 3.59  
TAKE CHARGE J J 8 3 41 3½   42 4(calhoun william )SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00 5% 19.00 32.40  
GOTTA KEEP HIM 7 8 7 7   755 (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00 37% 1.70 2.10  
12  SUGA STEVE 11 1 2½ 1½   26(bahena ism)RODRIGUEZ A 114 15.00 16.17  
MO CALIENTE 2 9 8 8   877 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 6.72  
NIGHT MOVER 3 10 1110¾ 10   98(amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 5% 19.00 14.88  
11  CLOVIS 10 2 1½ 2½   6911¼ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 19% 4.30 3.69  
PHENOMENAL DREAM 9 7 9 9   101013¾ (hamilton sarah)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00 56.41  
WORK FROM HOME 6 11 10 1110¼   1112¼ 1121 (hancock a)STEVENS C 119 25.00 5% 19.00 80.62  
SCR  DEEP STRIKE               (thomas jonatha)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
SCR  ROCK TO FAME               (divito james)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00    
SCR  RUNNIN' ROCKET               (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 2.50    
SCR  TAPITBOY               (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 5.00    
 
ELP-7   08/19/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:00
:222 :453 :573     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TRACK MATE 2 1 1½ 1nk   11(lukas wayne)LANERIE J 119 4.50 4.04  
SAHALAT 4 8 3½ 2nk   22(pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 124 2.50 26% 2.80 3.44 P
FASHION KING 1 7 42 44   45 34 (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 4.00 21% 3.70 5.07 S
SPIELMAN 8 6 9 8   545 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 11% 8.50 11.05  
11  NOT SO HOLY 10 9 5 3   33 5(lynch brian )ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00 10.33  
LITTLE NICK 7 4 7 5   69 611½ (vaccarezza carlo)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 31.27  
10  PASS LINE 9 5 8 6   711½ 718¼ (williamson brian)CHUAN MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00 11.63  
J J'S JOKER 5 3 6 7   814 821½ (hartman chris)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00 14% 6.20 2.21  
QUICK IMPULSE 6 10 1017¾ 1016¼   916½ 921¾ (navarrete anna)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00 48.42  
ACE THE RACE 3 2 2½ 913¾   1026½ 1051 (pittman bonn)CARPIO J 119 50.00 82.26  
SCR  CITY OF LOVE               (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
 
ELP-8   08/19/2023 6600ft TURF FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:34
:243 :493 1:133 1:372   2:011   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LUCY'S CAKES FLY 3 66 64 5 51¼ (stuart she)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00 11% 8.00 3.45 W
JUSTIFIABLE BELLE 7 3½ 31 3 3.2 3.2 2¼ (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 5% 19.00 8.36 P
WHENTHEDAWNBREAKS 1 1nk 11 11 1nk 1nk 3¼ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 2.50 49% 1.00 1.67 S
PRETTY PROVOCATIVE 6 77 8 8 74½ (molloy thomas)HEARD TYLER 124 8.00 15.90  
LAY THE GROUNDWORK 5 99 9 7 95(mott riley)TORRES A 124 3.00 12% 7.00 6.24  
LEOPARDESS (GB) 2 442 4 6 66(thomas jonatha)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.50 10.61  
LAVISH HABITS 9 88 7 9 87(hiles a)LANERIE J 124 20.00 10.74  
THREE COINS 8 52 53 53 4 4¾ 8(hancock a)MORALES EDGAR 124 20.00 5% 19.00 45.26  
DESERT TEMPEST 4 2nk 21 21 2nk 2nk 910½ (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00 7.59  
 
ELP-9   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:07
:211 :431 :544     1:004   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LADY GOLDSTART 2 3 2nk 1nk   12 1(bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 126 3.50 24% 3.20 1.91 W
LITTLE JEWEL 6 1 3 3   22 2(vaccarezza carlo)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 2.50 19% 4.20 5.98 P
MINAUN (IRE) 3 6 7 7   53(walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 122 3.00 18% 4.60 4.27 S
NEON SUMMER 5 2 1nk 2nk   32 4(sharp joe)TORRES A 122 15.00 5% 19.00 15.60  
FRANGO ELECTRICO 1 8 109 1011¼   75(bahena ism)RODRIGUEZ A 113 30.00 40.54  
FRANKEL BABY 9 9 6 6   66(mcewen j)HEARD TYLER 118 30.00 36.67  
10  PIPELINE GIRL 10 7 8 8   977 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00 8.50  
EXPLICATE 4 10 98 9   108(bicknell whi)CARPIO J 122 25.00 27.76  
PICANA (CHI) 7 4 5 44   4910 (correas iv)GRAHAM J 122 4.50 4.16  
LAUGH AND PLAY 8 5 43 5   81011¾ (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00 18% 4.60 9.94  
SCR  FASHION RAGE               (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.00    
SCR  MEGAN'S CLARA               (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 126 1.80    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.