Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Ellis Park
Saturday - August 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   EXA (2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00  3-6 $18.64 $6.64 55%
ELP-8   EXA (1/5/3/7/8)-(1/5/3/7/8) 20 $2.00 $40.00  3-7 $87.28 $47.28 118%
    TRI (1/5/3/7/8)-(1/5/3/7/8)-(1/5/3/7/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00  3-7-1 $71.57 $41.57 139%
ELP-9   SFT (2/6/3/8/5)-(2/6/3/8/5)-(2/6/3/8/5)-(2/6/3/8/5) 120 $0.10 $12.00  2-6-3-5 $25.01 $13.01 108%
    PK3 (4/1/5/9/10)-(1/5/3/7/8)-(2/6/3/8/5) 125 $3.00 $375  4-3-2 $742.47 $367.47 98%
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   08/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:24 :473 1:121 1:25   1:382   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LAMASCO 2 1 12 11½ 2½ 11½ 15¾ (gutierrez)TORRES A 122 2.00 22% 3.50 0.49 W
6  CENTER STAGE 5 3 22 21½ 1½ 21½ 25¾ (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 12.00 13% 6.60 11.78 P
4  COEXIST 3 2 44½ 44 42½ 33½ 37 (forster grant)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 5.76  
5  WITS AND WAGERS 4 4 33½ 32 31½ 45 49¼ (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00 4.73  
2  LITTLE DIXIE 1 5 55½ 55½ 55 56½ 511¾ (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.50 30% 2.30 6.04  
SCR  SHELL SHOCK               (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 4.00    
 
ELP-2   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:17
See original race card.
:213 :433 :543     1:002   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHIMMER ME TIMBERS 1 4 11½ 11½   11 11¾ (gorostieta c)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00 5.47  
3  AMERICAN MAYHEM 2 6 64 63½   42 21¾ (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 15% 5.60 1.56 P
5  MOUNSIEUR COCO 4 3 21½ 21½   32 33 (gutierrez faus)CHUAN MARTIN 118 2.50 52% 0.90 6.81 S
8  ATRAS 7 2 53 32   21 44¼ (hewitt mi)TORRES A 122 4.00 ★ 4.55  
7  CHISELER 6 1 42½ 42   53½ 56 (foley greg)LANERIE J 122 2.00 2.56  
6  SAMURAI PRINCE 5 7 74½ 74½   74¼ 66¼ (miller ken)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00 5% 17.80 18.81  
4  MAHOMEY 3 5 32½ 52½   64 78 (hewitt michael)EMIGH A 122 15.00 34.05  
SCR  CAPTIVATED DRAMA               (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 118 25.00    
SCR  CHATTALOT               (asmussen )TORRES A 122 3.50    
 
ELP-3   08/19/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:48
See original race card.
:23 :462 :591     1:053   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  FIBBER 6 7 54 42¾   31½ 1¾ (calhoun wi)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 5.00 4.55  
  (by FROSTED out of DEVIOUS INTENT by DIXIE UNION)
2  CRUISE MISSILE 2 1 1½ 1nk   11½ 2¾ (diodoro r)TORRES A 119 2.00 43% 1.40 2.99 P
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of RUN AWAY'S SIS by CITY ZIP)
4  SCRUPULOUS 4 3 44 52¾   54½ 37¾ (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 3.50 ★ 5.23 S
  (by UNKNOWN out of FULL HOUSE by DISCREETLY MINE)
3  BRUNCH PUNCH 3 6 31½ 3.2   21½ 47¾ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 30% 2.30 1.70  
  (by CONSTITUTION out of COSMIC BURST by VIOLENCE)
5  ADALENE 5 2 2½ 2nk   42½ 513 (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00 7.06  
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SWEET ON SMOKEY by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
1  C C GRAND 1 4 710 710¼   712½ 619¾ (lyster stephen)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 32.17  
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of ANGIE GRAND by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
7  I AM BEAUTIFUL 7 5 69½ 69¼   611 721 (flint s)LANERIE J 119 10.00 5% 19.00 9.33  
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SALT BAE by PAYNTER)
 
ELP-4   08/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:22
See original race card.
:23 :452 1:093     1:231   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  MONEY RUN 5 1 11½ 1½   11 12 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 2.50 50% 1.00 1.30 W
4  CAMP DADDY 3 2 31½ 2½   21 22 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 3.50 2.05  
1  DOG RED 1 5 42 43½   34 36½ (contreras cip)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00 20% 3.90 4.86 S
2  MODAZZLE 2 4 21½ 31½   44 47¼ (watkins ja)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00 11.90  
5  SCHMOOZIN 4 3 56 58   56 511 (pessin l)LANERIE J 122 5.00 5% 19.00 3.92  
SCR  CARMICHAEL               (diodoro robert)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 3.00    
SCR  RAYMOND               (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00    
 
ELP-5   08/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:53
See original race card.
:24 :472 1:113 1:24   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  SECRET POCKET 6 6 22 32 2nk 1½ 1¼ (peitz c)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00 13.42  
4  PRINCELY 4 4 54½ 43 42½ 32½ 2¼ (mcpeek ke)TORRES A 118 3.50 4.34  
3  BACKSIDE BUZZ 3 1 12 11½ 1nk 2½ 31¼ (vance d)LANERIE J 118 15.00 ★ 11.64 S
6  HURRY HURRY 5 7 79 75½ 64½ 55 44 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 62% 0.60 1.54  
2  CARNIVORE 2 2 33 21½ 31½ 44½ 57 (shorter aaron)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00 6% 14.90 7.71  
1  DEEP STATE 1 3 65 64 54 67 68¼ (combs bentley)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 6.00 5% 19.00 4.83  
8  SEVEN FLAT 7 5 43½ 53 74¾ 78½ 79¼ (moquett ro)CORRALES GERARDO 124 3.00 4.06  
SCR  EMPERADOR               (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 122 6.00    
 
ELP-6   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:25
See original race card.
:214 :442 :553     1:013   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  HEDWIG 4 6 52½ 51¾   11½ 11½ (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 119 6.00 10.75  
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of MRS. NORRIS by BERNARDINI)
1  COMMITTEE OF ONE 1 5 63½ 64¼   52½ 21½ (asmussen )TORRES A 119 6.00 14.64  
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of SWEETEST SOUND by ELOCUTIONIST)
5  DOUBLE YOUR MONEY 5 4 3½ 41½   32 31½ (lynch bria)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00 3.59  
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of AESCULUS by HORSE CHESTNUT (SAF))
8  TAKE CHARGE J J 8 3 41 3½   42 44½ (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00 5% 19.00 32.40  
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of ALL WOMAN by HALF OURS)
7  GOTTA KEEP HIM 7 8 74½ 75¼   73¾ 55 (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00 37% 1.70 2.10  
  (by STREET BOSS out of GOTTA HAVE HER by ROYAL ACADEMY)
12  SUGA STEVE 11 1 2½ 1½   21½ 65¼ (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 114 15.00 16.17  
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of HELEN SUNG by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
2  MO CALIENTE 2 9 84¾ 85¾   85¼ 77 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 6.72  
  (by UNCLE MO out of KALLIO by SCAT DADDY)
3  NIGHT MOVER 3 10 1110¾ 109¼   96¾ 87¼ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 5% 19.00 14.88  
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of SOVEREIGN CRISIS by CONGRATS)
11  CLOVIS 10 2 1½ 2½   63½ 911¼ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 19% 4.30 3.69  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ANUKET by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
9  PHENOMENAL DREAM 9 7 96¼ 97¼   108¼ 1013¾ (hamilton sarah)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00 56.41  
  (by HARD SPUN out of SIERRA SQUALL by GRAND SLAM)
6  WORK FROM HOME 6 11 108¾ 1110¼   1112¼ 1121 (hancock a)STEVENS C 119 25.00 5% 19.00 80.62  
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of BELLE'S HOME by CAME HOME)
SCR  DEEP STRIKE               (thomas jonat)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of ELANDESS by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  ROCK TO FAME               (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of ROSE TO FAME by GEMOLOGIST)
SCR  RUNNIN' ROCKET               (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 2.50    
  (by WAR FRONT out of CORPS DE BALLET by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  TAPITBOY               (asmussen )TORRES A 119 5.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of SPECIAL GAL by TAYLOR'S SPECIAL)
 
ELP-7   08/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:00
See original race card.
:222 :453 :573     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  TRACK MATE 2 1 1½ 1nk   11½ 13¼ (lukas wayne)LANERIE J 119 4.50 4.04  
  (by UNION RAGS out of TEAMMATE by A.P. INDY)
4  SAHALAT 4 8 3½ 2nk   21½ 23¼ (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 124 2.50 26% 2.80 3.44 P
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of DASHING DEBBY by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
1  FASHION KING 1 7 42 44   45 34 (asmussen )TORRES A 119 4.00 21% 3.70 5.07 S
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of FASHION RUNAWAY by OLD FASHIONED)
9  SPIELMAN 8 6 99¾ 88¾   56½ 45 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 11% 8.50 11.05  
  (by HARD SPUN out of SASSY IMAGE by BROKEN VOW)
11  NOT SO HOLY 10 9 52¼ 31½   33 57¾ (lynch bria)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00 10.33  
  (by GREAT NOTION out of ALTAGRACIA by FLATTER)
8  LITTLE NICK (NZ) 7 4 73¾ 54¼   69 611½ (vaccarezza car)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 31.27  
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of GHOST FLOWER by FORLI)
10  PASS LINE 9 5 83¾ 65¾   711½ 718¼ (williamson bri)CHUAN MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00 11.63  
  (by STRAIGHT LINE out of OVER AGAIN by SHARP HUMOR)
5  J J'S JOKER 5 3 63¼ 78¾   814 821½ (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00 14% 6.20 2.21  
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of CABBAGE KEY by A.P. INDY)
6  QUICK IMPULSE 6 10 1017¾ 1016¼   916½ 921¾ (navarrete ann)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00 48.42  
  (by KEEN ICE out of SPEEDY KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
3  ACE THE RACE 3 2 2½ 913¾   1026½ 1051 (pittman bo)CARPIO J 119 50.00 82.26  
  (by OVERANALYZE out of NEW TWIST MISS by TALE OF THE CAT)
SCR  CITY OF LOVE               (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of JERRY LOVE by NOT FOR LOVE)
 
ELP-8   08/19/2023 6600ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:34
See original race card.
:243 :493 1:133 1:372   2:011   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LUCY'S CAKES FLY 3 62½ 63½ 64 51¾ 51¾ 1¼ (stuart s)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00 11% 8.00 3.45 W
7  JUSTIFIABLE BELLE 7 3½ 31 31½ 3.2 3.2 2¼ (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 5% 19.00 8.36 P
1  WHENTHEDAWNBREAKS 1 1nk 11 11 1nk 1nk 3¼ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 2.50 49% 1.00 1.67 S
6  PRETTY PROVOCATIVE 6 72¾ 74½ 84½ 84¼ 72¼ 4½ (molloy thomas)HEARD TYLER 124 8.00 15.90  
5  LAY THE GROUNDWORK 5 94¼ 95¾ 95½ 73¼ 93¾ 51¼ (mott rile)TORRES A 124 3.00 12% 7.00 6.24  
2  LEOPARDESS (GB) 2 41½ 42 42½ 62¼ 61¾ 62¼ (thomas jonat)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.50 10.61  
9  LAVISH HABITS 9 84¼ 85½ 74½ 95¼ 82¾ 72¼ (hiles a)LANERIE J 124 20.00 10.74  
8  THREE COINS 8 52 53 53 41¼ 4¾ 84½ (hancock john )MORALES EDGAR 124 20.00 5% 19.00 45.26  
4  DESERT TEMPEST 4 2nk 21 21 2nk 2nk 910½ (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00 7.59  
 
ELP-9   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:07
See original race card.
:211 :431 :544     1:004   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  LADY GOLDSTART 2 3 2nk 1nk   12 11¼ (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 126 3.50 24% 3.20 1.91 W
6  LITTLE JEWEL 6 1 31½ 31½   22 21¼ (vaccarezza car)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 2.50 19% 4.20 5.98 P
3  MINAUN (IRE) 3 6 75½ 76¾   53¾ 34¼ (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 122 3.00 18% 4.60 4.27 S
5  NEON SUMMER 5 2 1nk 2nk   32 45¼ (sharp joe)TORRES A 122 15.00 5% 19.00 15.60  
1  FRANGO ELECTRICO 1 8 109 1011¼   76¼ 55¾ (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 113 30.00 40.54  
9  FRANKEL BABY 9 9 64½ 65¾   65¼ 65¾ (mcewen j)HEARD TYLER 118 30.00 36.67  
10  PIPELINE GIRL 10 7 86½ 88¼   97¼ 77 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00 8.50  
4  EXPLICATE 4 10 98 99¾   108¾ 89¾ (bicknell w)CARPIO J 122 25.00 27.76  
7  PICANA (CHI) 7 4 53½ 44   43½ 910 (correas iv)GRAHAM J 122 4.50 4.16  
8  LAUGH AND PLAY 8 5 43 54¼   86¾ 1011¾ (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00 18% 4.60 9.94  
SCR  FASHION RAGE               (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.00    
SCR  MEGAN'S CLARA               (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 126 1.80    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.