Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - August 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (2/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/6)-(2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/6)-(5/3/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/3/6)-(5/3/6)-(2/3/7) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-2   WIN (5/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/6)-(5/3/6/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/3/6)-(5/3/6/8)-(5/3/6/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/3/6)-(2/3/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/3/6)-(2/3/7)-(6/1/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-3   WIN (2/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/7)-(2/3/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/3/7)-(2/3/4/7)-(2/3/4/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/3/7)-(6/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/3/7)-(6/1/5)-(6/2/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-4   WIN (6/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/5)-(6/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/5)-(6/1/5)-(6/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/5)-(6/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/1/5)-(6/2/1)-(7/11/3/6/8) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
ELP-5   WIN (6/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/1)-(6/2/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/2/1)-(6/2/1/3)-(6/2/1/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/2/1)-(7/11/3/6/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/2/1)-(7/11/3/6/8)-(4/1/5/9/10) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ELP-6   WIN (7/11/3/6/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/11/3/6/8)-(7/11/3/6/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/11/3/6/8)-(7/11/3/6/8)-(7/11/3/6/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/11/3/6/8)-(4/1/5/9/10) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (7/11/3/6/8)-(4/1/5/9/10)-(1/5/3/7/8) 125 $1.00 $375 
ELP-7   WIN (4/1/5/9/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/1/5/9/10)-(4/1/5/9/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/1/5/9/10)-(4/1/5/9/10)-(4/1/5/9/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/1/5/9/10)-(1/5/3/7/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/1/5/9/10)-(1/5/3/7/8)-(2/6/3/8/5) 125 $1.00 $125 
ELP-8   WIN (1/5/3/7/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/5/3/7/8)-(1/5/3/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/5/3/7/8)-(1/5/3/7/8)-(1/5/3/7/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/5/3/7/8)-(2/6/3/8/5) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
ELP-9   WIN (2/6/3/8/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/6/3/8/5)-(2/6/3/8/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/6/3/8/5)-(2/6/3/8/5)-(2/6/3/8/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SHELL SHOCK Aug01 Jun24 Jun03 Mar04 Feb19 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 4.00    
2  LITTLE DIXIE Jun11 Apr23 Mar03 Jan21   (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.50 30% 2.30    
3  LAMASCO Aug01 Jun17 Mar26 Mar08 Feb01 (gutierrez)TORRES A 122 2.00 22% 3.50    
4  COEXIST Jul16 Jul02 Jun11 May27 May12 (forster grant)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
5  WITS AND WAGERS Jul15 Jun16 May13 Apr07 Feb04 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00    
6  CENTER STAGE Jul15 May20 Apr23 Mar25 Feb16 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 12.00 13% 6.60    
 
ELP-2   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHIMMER ME TIMBERS Jul21 Jul07 May23 Apr18 Mar19 (gorosti)DE CRUZ 122 6.00    
SCR  CAPTIVATED DRAMA Jul14 Jun17 May06     (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 118 25.00    
3  AMERICAN MAYHEM Jul21 Oct01 Sep14 Aug26 Jul24 (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 15% 5.60    
4  MAHOMEY Jul17 Jun04 May06 Apr07 Mar23 (hewitt michael)EMIGH A 122 15.00    
5  MOUNSIEUR COCO Jul08 Nov26 Oct09 Aug28 Aug20 (gutierrez faus)CHUAN MARTIN 118 2.50 52% 0.90    
6  SAMURAI PRINCE Jul15 Jun07 May17 Apr19 Mar18 (miller ken)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00 5% 17.80    
7  CHISELER Jul08 May20 Mar09 Jan19 Dec28 (foley greg)LANERIE J 122 2.00    
8  ATRAS Jul21 Jun24 Jun17 Jun09 May12 (hewitt mi)TORRES A 122 4.00 ★    
SCR  CHATTALOT Aug04 Jul04 May29 Apr23 Apr15 (asmussen )TORRES A 122 3.50    
 
ELP-3   08/19/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  C C GRAND         (lyster stephen)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of ANGIE GRAND by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
2  CRUISE MISSILE Jun16         (diodoro r)TORRES A 119 2.00 43% 1.40    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of RUN AWAY'S SIS by CITY ZIP)
3  BRUNCH PUNCH         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of COSMIC BURST by VIOLENCE)
4  SCRUPULOUS         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 3.50 ★    
  (by UNKNOWN out of FULL HOUSE by DISCREETLY MINE)
5  ADALENE         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SWEET ON SMOKEY by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
6  FIBBER         (calhoun wi)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 5.00    
  (by FROSTED out of DEVIOUS INTENT by DIXIE UNION)
7  I AM BEAUTIFUL         (flint s)LANERIE J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SALT BAE by PAYNTER)
 
ELP-4   08/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOG RED Jul19 Jun18 May28 Apr26 Feb03 (contreras cip)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00 20% 3.90    
2  MODAZZLE Jul15 Jun07 May18 Apr16 Mar10 (watkins ja)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00    
SCR  RAYMOND Jul30 Jul05 May26 May13 Apr19 (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00    
4  CAMP DADDY Jul31 Jun25 May27 May21 May04 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 3.50    
5  SCHMOOZIN May19 Apr21 Feb21 Jan15 Dec23 (pessin l)LANERIE J 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
6  MONEY RUN Jun15 Apr12 Mar16 Feb20 Jan28 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 2.50 50% 1.00    
SCR  CARMICHAEL Aug04 Jun01 May11 Feb05 Nov23 (diodoro robert)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 3.00    
 
ELP-5   08/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEEP STATE Jul23 Dec16 Nov25 Oct27 Sep28 (combs bentley)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  CARNIVORE Jul16 Jun02 May05 Mar19 Feb11 (shorter aaron)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00 6% 14.90    
3  BACKSIDE BUZZ Jul31 May06 Mar23 Feb24 Feb03 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 15.00 ★    
4  PRINCELY Jul21 May28 May13 Apr19 Mar19 (mcpeek ke)TORRES A 118 3.50    
SCR  EMPERADOR Jul31 Jun29 Jun04 Jan06 Oct14 (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 122 6.00    
6  HURRY HURRY Jun30 Jun11 Mar16 Feb17   (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 62% 0.60    
7  SECRET POCKET Jun29 Jun02 Apr29 Mar24 Feb01 (peitz c)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00    
8  SEVEN FLAT Jul21 Jun02 May13 Apr26 Jun30 (moquett ro)CORRALES GERARDO 124 3.00    
 
ELP-6   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMMITTEE OF ONE         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of SWEETEST SOUND by ELOCUTIONIST)
2  MO CALIENTE         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of KALLIO by SCAT DADDY)
3  NIGHT MOVER         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of SOVEREIGN CRISIS by CONGRATS)
4  HEDWIG         (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 119 6.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of MRS. NORRIS by BERNARDINI)
5  DOUBLE YOUR MONEY         (lynch bria)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00    
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of AESCULUS by HORSE CHESTNUT (SAF))
6  WORK FROM HOME         (hancock a)STEVENS C 119 25.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of BELLE'S HOME by CAME HOME)
7  GOTTA KEEP HIM         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00 37% 1.70    
  (by STREET BOSS out of GOTTA HAVE HER by ROYAL ACADEMY)
8  TAKE CHARGE J J         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of ALL WOMAN by HALF OURS)
9  PHENOMENAL DREAM         (hamilton sarah)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SIERRA SQUALL by GRAND SLAM)
SCR  ROCK TO FAME         (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of ROSE TO FAME by GEMOLOGIST)
11  CLOVIS         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 19% 4.30    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ANUKET by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
12  SUGA STEVE Jul30 Jul03 May25 May03   (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 114 15.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of HELEN SUNG by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
SCR  DEEP STRIKE         (thomas jonat)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of ELANDESS by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  TAPITBOY         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 5.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of SPECIAL GAL by TAYLOR'S SPECIAL)
SCR  RUNNIN' ROCKET Jul15         (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 2.50    
  (by WAR FRONT out of CORPS DE BALLET by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
ELP-7   08/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FASHION KING Jul14 Nov05 Oct09     (asmussen )TORRES A 119 4.00 21% 3.70    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of FASHION RUNAWAY by OLD FASHIONED)
2  TRACK MATE Sep15 Aug27 Aug06     (lukas wayne)LANERIE J 119 4.50    
  (by UNION RAGS out of TEAMMATE by A.P. INDY)
3  ACE THE RACE Jul22         (pittman bo)CARPIO J 119 50.00    
  (by OVERANALYZE out of NEW TWIST MISS by TALE OF THE CAT)
4  SAHALAT         (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 124 2.50 26% 2.80    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of DASHING DEBBY by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  J J'S JOKER Feb18 Jan21 Dec10 Oct30   (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00 14% 6.20    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of CABBAGE KEY by A.P. INDY)
6  QUICK IMPULSE         (navarrete ann)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
  (by KEEN ICE out of SPEEDY KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  CITY OF LOVE Mar25         (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of JERRY LOVE by NOT FOR LOVE)
8  LITTLE NICK (NZ)         (vaccarezza car)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of GHOST FLOWER by FORLI)
9  SPIELMAN Nov26 Oct30 Oct01 Aug21 Jul22 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 11% 8.50    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SASSY IMAGE by BROKEN VOW)
10  PASS LINE Jul22 Jul02 Jun15     (williamson bri)CHUAN MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STRAIGHT LINE out of OVER AGAIN by SHARP HUMOR)
11  NOT SO HOLY         (lynch bria)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00    
  (by GREAT NOTION out of ALTAGRACIA by FLATTER)
 
ELP-8   08/19/2023 6600ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHENTHEDAWNBREAKS Oct13 Jun22 Apr28 Jan29   (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 2.50 49% 1.00    
2  LEOPARDESS (GB) Jun21 May18 Sep28     (thomas jonat)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.50    
3  LUCY'S CAKES FLY Jul23 Jul07 Jun17 Apr23 Feb15 (stuart s)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00 11% 8.00    
4  DESERT TEMPEST Jun29 Jun02 Apr27 Mar18 Feb05 (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00    
5  LAY THE GROUNDWORK May18 Apr30 Mar23 Feb26 Jan25 (mott rile)TORRES A 124 3.00 12% 7.00    
6  PRETTY PROVOCATIVE Jun29 May29 Jan22     (molloy thomas)HEARD TYLER 124 8.00    
7  JUSTIFIABLE BELLE Jun22 Apr15 Mar11 Jan22 Nov19 (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  THREE COINS Jul23 Jun17 Jun01 Apr19 Oct07 (hancock john )MORALES EDGAR 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
9  LAVISH HABITS Jul27 Jul05 Jun10 Mar05 Feb12 (hiles a)LANERIE J 124 20.00    
 
ELP-9   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRANGO ELECTRICO Aug03 Jul06 Jun22 Jun01 May04 (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 113 30.00    
2  LADY GOLDSTART Jul22 Jul07 Jun16 May14 Jan29 (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 126 3.50 24% 3.20    
3  MINAUN (IRE) May07 Apr15 Mar02 Jul18 May13 (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 122 3.00 18% 4.60    
4  EXPLICATE Aug01 Oct13 Sep26 Jul02 Jun18 (bicknell whit)GILLIGAN JACK 122 25.00    
5  NEON SUMMER Apr21 Apr08 Feb04 Oct12 Sep09 (sharp joe)TORRES A 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  LITTLE JEWEL Jul07 May05 Apr15 Mar11 Feb03 (vaccarezza car)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 2.50 19% 4.20    
7  PICANA (CHI)         (correas iv)GRAHAM J 122 4.50    
8  LAUGH AND PLAY May19 Apr07 Mar16 Feb18 Jan11 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00 18% 4.60    
9  FRANKEL BABY Jul08 May27 Aug26 Aug09   (mcewen bi)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 118 30.00    
10  PIPELINE GIRL Jan29 Jan01 Oct25 Sep21 Aug02 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00    
SCR  MEGAN'S CLARA Jul15 Jun03 Mar25 Feb26 May30 (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 126 1.80    
SCR  FASHION RAGE Aug06 Jul08 Jun09 Apr23 Mar09 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.