The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 01, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (3/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 2 1 0 $9.04 -4.00
CD-2   Win (5/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 0 $12.00 -6.00
CD-3   Win (7/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 7 1 1 $2.74 $2.74 -1.26
CD-4   Win (8/2/6/11/16) 5 $2.00 $10.00 6 1 1 $41.82 $41.82 31.82
CD-5   Win (3/5/9/7/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 8 1 0 $10.68 -10.00
CD-6   Win (8/2/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $3.70 $3.70 -4.30
CD-7   Win (8/11/1/3/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 8 1 1 $8.98 $8.98 -1.02
CD-8   Win (7/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 1 $7.74 $7.74 1.74
CD-9   Win (7/5/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $13.78 $13.78 5.78
CD-10   Win (1/2/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 1 $15.82 $15.82 7.82

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/01/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
:25 :494 1:15 1:394   1:461   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RUNNINGFORJOY 2 3 3 4 4 21 1(tomlinson m)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 3.52  
HERO'S MEDAL 3 4 42 3 3½ 31 2(stall albert)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 0.80 43% 1.30 0.40 P
SURFACE TO AIR 4 1 2½ 2½ 1½ 11 3(miller darr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00 9.06  
WE WILL CONQUER 5 2 1½ 1½ 2½ 44(medina robert)GEROUX FLORENT 121 6.00 27% 2.70 8.04  
TEXAS PRIDE 1 5 54 5 5 55(lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 121 12.00 13.23  
SCR  FEAR OF UNION               (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 10.00    
SCR  FUNSTRUCK               (olivo k)MCKEE J 121 15.00    
 
CD-2   11/01/2023 4950ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
:234 :471 1:123 1:243   1:313   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FIRE BRYAN 3 1 5 7   1nk 11 (patrick ga)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.00 5.00  
PLATINUM GHOST 7 5 1½ 2nk   2nk 21 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 5.39  
TROPIC STORM 4 2 2½ 1nk   3.2 3(habeeb j)ASHTON GAVIN 120 5.00 5.83  
REWIRE 5 6 3½ 3½   44(sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 31% 2.20 0.80  
PUNCTUALITY 1 4 7 6   5513 (foster eri)RODRIGUEZ A 118 3.00 19% 4.30 7.13  
INVASIVE 2 3 6 5   712¼ 618¼ (kendall elise)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 32.33  
P K WOOD 6 7 4¾ 42   611¼ 718¾ (esquivel je)CORREA L 120 10.00 16% 5.20 26.79  
 
CD-3   11/01/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
:213 :454 :583     1:114   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BEST OF GREELEY 4 1 33 31   11(garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 2.00 37% 1.70 0.37 W
IMPROBABLE STORY 3 4 4 44   45 2(king l)TORRES A 120 15.00 11.15  
STEINBECK 1 2 1½ 1½   23(cano munoz)ELLIOTT JANE 120 10.00 2.85  
HILLBILLY LOGIC 2 3 2½ 2½   3412½ (howard mary )CORRALES GERARDO 120 15.00 6.02  
SCR  MO'S MOJO               (martinez ke)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.50 32% 2.10    
SCR  RIKIO               (cline robert)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 15.00    
SCR  SMOKIN RICHIE               (lopez elias)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 10.00    
SCR  UNDER THE GUN               (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00    
 
CD-4   11/01/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 2:30
:222 :463 :591     1:122   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TALKIN IN CURSIVE 6 2 31 11   11(vosler eugene)PETERSON FERRIN 119 15.00 12% 7.10 19.91 W
WRECK IT RUBY 1 3 4 4   35 2(holsapple hu)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 6.00 10.83  
LADLE 2 5 2½ 3   45 37 (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 119 6.00 15% 5.70 4.57 S
PRIX 3 4 1½ 21   24(wojczy)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 20.00 42.72  
COLLIER 5 9 9 810   8510½ (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 119 20.00 17.52  
15  RUN RUN RABBIT 10 10 88 7   5611 (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 24.82  
14  GRACE AND FREEDOM 9 1 7 6   6711¼ (jones j )CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 112 12.00 30.76  
16  SPITE LITE 11 8 10 1012   912 811¾ (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00 11% 8.00 7.39  
MISS CLAUDETTE 4 7 53 5   79 914½ (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 5.16  
11  FLATTERING HEART 8 11 1110½ 910½   1013 1017½ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 12.00 12% 7.10 9.47  
BROWN AS A BISCUIT 7 6 65 1114½   1118 1128¼ (casse w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 25% 3.10 1.65  
SCR  FULLY ENTITLED               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50    
SCR  GOLDEN LAKE               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
SCR  HOT MOCHA               (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
SCR  INTERPOLLY               (morey e)FELIX E 119 8.00    
SCR  WHATTA WORLD               (diodoro rob)TORRES A 119 3.50    
 
CD-5   11/01/2023 3630ft TURF GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
:223 :463 :59     1:053   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KICK A RHYME (IRE) 8 8 32 3   1½ 1(maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 4.34  
MO LANTERN 2 4 7 78   54 2(brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 122 8.00 9.66  
MY LILY MAE 3 6 8 88   65 3(kinmon keith)MACHADO LUAN 124 5.00 59% 0.70 10.73 S
GOING THE DISTANCE 5 1 1½ 2½   2½ 4(shirer mat)SANTANA JR 122 3.50 11% 7.80 1.13  
CLASSIC CLAIRE 4 5 42 4   33 5(foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00 12.35  
THEROANRUNNER 9 7 6 55   76(sharp joe)TORRES A 122 2.50 5% 17.80 4.15  
LIPOCHROME 1 10 9 9   87(torres con)RODRIGUEZ A 124 15.00 45.32  
SOUL HEIR 6 3 54 6   98(fields christop)GUERERE ANGEL 115 20.00 5% 19.00 49.14  
10  VIOLET FLAME 10 9 10 1011   1010 910 (wittek karyn)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00 45.14  
DREAM ON STORMY 7 2 2½ 1½   41011¾ (winston d)CANNON DECLAN 122 10.00 5% 19.00 21.06  
SCR  ALWAYSGOTOTHEPARTY               (michael brian)CALLEJA ANDRES 112 20.00    
SCR  CANDY BAR               (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 4.00    
SCR  SICKLE DANCE               (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 5.00    
SCR  TIDAL TACTICS               (hill f)TORRES A 122 10.00    
 
CD-6   11/01/2023 4620ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
:232 :464 1:111     1:234   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BARNSTORMING 6 1 21 2nk   2nk 1¾ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.00 42% 1.40 0.85 W
PINELAND 3 3 11 1nk   1nk 2¾ (schultz lindsa)TORRES A 122 10.00 23.25  
VIGANO 4 4 63 6   33(zito nichola)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 8.00 8.41  
BEAUMONT RED 2 2 5 4   48 412¾ (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 122 12.00 8.82  
SPEED INSTITUTE 7 6 32 32   5517 (miller jerom)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 8% 11.00 5.43  
ENOUGH ALREADY 1 7 42 5   611½ 619 (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 5.00 18% 4.50 3.90  
CHADRON 5 5 7 7   713½ 722 (mckeever andrew)ACHARD ALEX 122 10.00 14.21  
SCR  MO HOPE               (mcgee paul)LANERIE J 122 8.00 10% 8.80    
SCR  SMOKE WAGON               (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00    
 
CD-7   11/01/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
:214 :454 :58     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PILLBOX 7 8 7 3   119 (joseph saffi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 31% 2.20 3.49 W
FILLY CRYSTAL 6 12 5 7   329 (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 118 15.00 5% 19.00 24.91 P
SUMMER OF MISCHIEF 4 6 3.2 1nk   23(asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 120 15.00 24.29  
IN COLOR 3 11 4 4   44 410¼ (damato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00 3.56  
MEAN SUE 8 1 6 5   6511½ (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00 5.02  
13  ROYAL BLOOD 12 2 11 84   77 612¾ (habeeb j)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00 48.79  
BELPERRON 2 5 2nk 2nk   5713½ (manley steve)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 10% 9.10 6.29  
10  MAZOKU 9 9 9 97   9815¾ (butcher james)GUERERE ANGEL 120 20.00 81.86  
WEATHER MAP 1 4 1nk 6   8917 (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00 12% 7.70 4.54  
JACKIE'S SPIRIT 5 3 8 107   1010½ 1021½ (kordenbrock matt)LANERIE J 118 12.00 26.03  
12  MOTOWN MIKA 11 7 10 119   1112½ 1123¼ (o'connor robert)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00 25.00  
11  ARGUMENTAL 10 10 1230¾ 12100   12100 12100 (maker mich)SANTANA JR 120 3.50 22% 3.50 8.85  
SCR  CALY BALI               (rosin coty )TORRES A 118 20.00    
SCR  MAGNA MASSA               (irion heather)ARRIETA REYNIER 118 5.00    
 
CD-8   11/01/2023 5610ft TURF GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 4:33
:232 :48 1:133 1:39   1:454   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WATCH THIS BIRDIE 6 3 5 511½ 54 11(correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 4.00 33% 2.00 2.87 W
STRIKINGLY SPUN 2 5 4 4 3 22(sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 2.16  
NOM DE PLUME 3 4 35 39 44 33(lobo paulo )TORRES A 118 10.00 17% 4.80 4.34 S
MO BILLS 5 2 2½ 2½ 1½ 44(stidham michael)LANERIE J 120 4.00 20% 4.00 2.69  
BOLIVIE (IRE) 1 6 68 611½ 67 58 514¼ (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 118 5.00 8.07  
ESSAOUIRA 4 1 1½ 1½ 2½ 6619¾ (motion graha)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 13.17  
SCR  GOLDCREST               (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 118 3.50    
SCR  JUNIPERMARSHMALLOW               (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50    
SCR  NOMADIC PRIDE               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00    
 
CD-9   11/01/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
:23 :46 1:11 1:233   1:364   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SECRET STATEMENT 3 2 3 2 1½ 12 1(baker james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00 9% 10.20 5.89 W
AMBER CASCADE 1 5 53 4 32 22 2(devaux cher)TORRES A 118 4.00 11% 8.00 1.71 P
CALL AGAIN 4 6 6 6 53 434 (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 3.50 12% 7.30 6.82 S
SULTRY LASS 6 4 4 5 42 54(lovell miche)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 43% 1.30 3.43  
HER LADYSHIP 8 9 910¼ 9 6 65(arnold geor)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00 6.14  
SHOPLIFTER 2 1 1½ 1 2½ 34 6(kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 6.82  
10  VOTARY 9 7 7 7 7 7712¾ (peach chad)RODRIGUEZ A 121 20.00 25.04  
WANDA SUSIE DOOZY 5 3 2½ 3 8 816½ 832 (reed r)MCKEE J 121 20.00 72.06  
UP TO SOMETHING 7 8 8 8 912½ 920 934¾ (oliver victoria)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00 38.14  
SCR  HUNTRESS FOR HIRE               (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00    
 
CD-10   11/01/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 5:35
:23 :462 1:122 1:261   1:393   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
I'M YOUR MAN 2 11 1110¼ 11 87 61(casse norm)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 13% 6.80 6.91 W
WALDRIP 9 10 7 52 42 1½ 2(moquett rona)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 8.16  
10  QUEBRANCHO 10 8 6 73 5 434 (gutierrez f)TORRES A 119 12.00 33.51  
PRETTY FAST 6 3 1nk 1½ 1nk 2½ 4(foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00 40.93  
HONEST OPINION 1 1 10 8 6 55(cox h)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.00 54% 0.90 1.08  
QUIET RUSH 7 6 2nk 2½ 2nk 3610 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 4.00 8.56  
QUENCIO 5 2 52 31 31 7712¼ (gutierrez fausti)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 24.19  
PERFORMANCE PLUS 4 5 9 94 9 8815 (lopez elias)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00 10% 8.60 78.50  
MASTER SWITCH 3 4 8 62 76 9922¾ (contreras cip)QUINONEZ ALONSO 119 15.00 5% 19.00 44.59  
11  THIS TIME BLUE 11 9 4 10 11 1011¾ 1027½ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 8.41  
THEZELENSKYYFACTOR 8 7 3½ 4 108 1113¾ 1130 (stall albert )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 5.00 5.32  
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries will win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.