Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 01, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (3/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/6)-(3/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/6)-(5/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/6)-(5/1/6)-(7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/6)-(5/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/6)-(5/1/6)-(5/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/6)-(7) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (5/1/6)-(7)-(8/2/6/11/16) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-3   WIN (7) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (7)-(8/2/6/11/16) 5 $1.00 $5.00 
    PK3 (7)-(8/2/6/11/16)-(3/5/9/7/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-4   WIN (8/2/6/11/16) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/2/6/11/16)-(8/2/6/11/16) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/2/6/11/16)-(8/2/6/11/16)-(8/2/6/11/16) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/2/6/11/16)-(3/5/9/7/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (8/2/6/11/16)-(3/5/9/7/6)-(8/2/9) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-5   WIN (3/5/9/7/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/5/9/7/6)-(3/5/9/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/5/9/7/6)-(3/5/9/7/6)-(3/5/9/7/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/5/9/7/6)-(8/2/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/5/9/7/6)-(8/2/9)-(8/11/1/3/7) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-6   WIN (8/2/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/2/9)-(8/2/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/2/9)-(8/2/9)-(8/2/9) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/2/9)-(8/11/1/3/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/2/9)-(8/11/1/3/7)-(7/6/4) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-7   WIN (8/11/1/3/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/11/1/3/7)-(8/11/1/3/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/11/1/3/7)-(8/11/1/3/7)-(8/11/1/3/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/11/1/3/7)-(7/6/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/11/1/3/7)-(7/6/4)-(7/5/1/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-8   WIN (7/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/6/4)-(7/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/6/4)-(7/6/4)-(7/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/6/4)-(7/5/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/6/4)-(7/5/1/3)-(1/2/4/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-9   WIN (7/5/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/1/3)-(7/5/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/1/3)-(7/5/1/3)-(7/5/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/1/3)-(1/2/4/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-10   WIN (1/2/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/4/3)-(1/2/4/8/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/2/4/3)-(1/2/4/8/3)-(1/2/4/8/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/01/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEXAS PRIDE Oct06 Sep16 Aug05 Jul16 Jun25 (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 121 12.00    
2  RUNNINGFORJOY Oct06 May28 Apr28     (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50    
3  HERO'S MEDAL Sep21 Aug11 Jul14 Jun25 May02 (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 0.80 43% 1.30    
4  SURFACE TO AIR Oct06 Sep03 Aug01 Jun30 May28 (miller da)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00    
SCR  FEAR OF UNION Sep15 Aug26 Jul16 May06   (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 10.00    
6  WE WILL CONQUER May29         (medina robert)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00 27% 2.70    
SCR  FUNSTRUCK Oct31 Sep29       (olivo k)MCKEE J 121 15.00    
 
CD-2   11/01/2023 4950ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PUNCTUALITY Oct13 Sep24 Jul31 Jul16 Jun25 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 118 3.00 19% 4.30    
2  INVASIVE Jun15 Apr29 Apr16 Mar17 Feb15 (kendall elise)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00    
3  FIRE BRYAN Oct16 Oct06 Sep20 Aug29 Aug16 (patrick r )CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.00    
4  TROPIC STORM Sep14 Jul21 Jun25 Jun04 May12 (habeeb donald )ASHTON GAVIN 120 5.00    
5  REWIRE Feb17 Jan19 Dec16 Nov18 Oct08 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 31% 2.20    
6  P K WOOD Sep27 Sep02 Aug05 Jul14 Jun23 (esquivel )CORREA L 120 10.00 16% 5.20    
7  PLATINUM GHOST Sep24 Aug03 Jun01 Apr27 Mar15 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
 
CD-3   11/01/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STEINBECK Sep29 Jul22 Jul09 May12 Apr08 (cano muno)ELLIOTT JANE 120 10.00    
2  HILLBILLY LOGIC Oct03 Sep17 Sep02 Aug23 Aug02 (howard mar)CORRALES GERARDO 120 15.00    
SCR  SMOKIN RICHIE Oct04 Sep04 Aug10 Jul21 May03 (lopez elia)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 10.00    
SCR  UNDER THE GUN Aug24 Jul04 May27 Apr29 Apr08 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00    
SCR  MO'S MOJO Sep29 Sep16 Jun07 May06 Jan20 (martinez )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.50 32% 2.10    
6  IMPROBABLE STORY Sep27 Jul06 May26 May04 Apr26 (king l)TORRES A 120 15.00    
7  BEST OF GREELEY Sep25 Sep05 Aug17 Jul06 Jun18 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 2.00 37% 1.70    
SCR  RIKIO Sep21 Aug31 Aug15 Jun17 Feb23 (cline robe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 15.00    
 
CD-4   11/01/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WRECK IT RUBY Oct21 Sep20 Aug20 Aug01 May27 (holsapple )MURRILL MITCHELL 119 6.00    
2  LADLE Aug15 Jul07       (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 119 6.00 15% 5.70    
3  PRIX Oct04         (wojc)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 20.00    
4  MISS CLAUDETTE Sep16         (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
5  COLLIER Oct08 Sep14 Aug18     (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 119 20.00    
6  TALKIN IN CURSIVE         (vosler euge)PETERSON FERRIN 119 15.00 12% 7.10    
SCR  INTERPOLLY         (morey e)FELIX E 119 8.00    
8  BROWN AS A BISCUIT         (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 25% 3.10    
SCR  HOT MOCHA Sep11 Aug04       (mccarthy m)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
SCR  FULLY ENTITLED Oct12         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50    
11  FLATTERING HEART         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 12.00 12% 7.10    
SCR  WHATTA WORLD Sep21 Aug20 Jul01 Jun15 Apr26 (diodoro r)TORRES A 119 3.50    
SCR  GOLDEN LAKE         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
14  GRACE AND FREEDOM Sep27         (jones )CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 112 12.00    
15  RUN RUN RABBIT Oct10 Sep20 Aug28     (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
16  SPITE LITE         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00 11% 8.00    
 
CD-5   11/01/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIPOCHROME Oct01         (torres c)RODRIGUEZ A 124 15.00    
  (by MOHAYMEN out of CANARY DIAMOND by ALPHABET SOUP)
2  MO LANTERN         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 122 8.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of LANTERN by MINESHAFT)
3  MY LILY MAE Sep09 Jul22 Jul10 May24 Mar31 (kinmon keith)MACHADO LUAN 124 5.00 59% 0.70    
  (by SKY MESA out of ABSOLUTELY CINDY by ARCH)
4  CLASSIC CLAIRE         (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of CLAIRENATION by BERNSTEIN)
5  GOING THE DISTANCE Sep15 Aug25 Mar26 Mar01   (shirer m)SANTANA JR 122 3.50 11% 7.80    
  (by TAPWRIT out of SHEISINITTOWINIT by STUDENT COUNCIL)
6  SOUL HEIR Sep26 Aug31       (fields chris)TERRAZA GERMAN 115 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of DANCE WITH GIANTS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
7  DREAM ON STORMY Oct07 Sep15 Sep03     (winston fred )CANNON DECLAN 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of LU BATON by ROAR)
8  KICK A RHYME (IRE) Sep17 Aug17       (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of ADHWAA by DAAHER)
9  THEROANRUNNER Sep09 Aug01 Jul01 Nov26 Oct16 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 5% 17.80    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of NOELLE'S MISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
10  VIOLET FLAME Sep27         (wittek karyn)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of FILA PRIMERA by WAR FRONT)
SCR  ALWAYSGOTOTHEPARTY Oct05         (michael bria)CALLEJA ANDRES 112 20.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of MAXIE FORD by TAPIT)
SCR  SICKLE DANCE Sep02 Aug18       (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 5.00    
  (by BEE JERSEY out of DANCE SECRETARY by DANEHILL DANCER (IRE))
SCR  TIDAL TACTICS Sep13 Sep02       (hill john)TORRES A 122 10.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of AMURMAR by GALILEO (ARG))
SCR  CANDY BAR Sep02 Aug06 Jul09     (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 4.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of SUGAR BABE by QUIET AMERICAN)
 
CD-6   11/01/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MO HOPE Sep02 Jun02 Apr28 Jan21 Dec16 (mcgee paul)LANERIE J 122 8.00 10% 8.80    
2  ENOUGH ALREADY Sep17 Aug05 Jul14 Jun26 May05 (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 5.00 18% 4.50    
SCR  SMOKE WAGON Oct12 Sep02 Aug01 Jul16 Jul02 (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00    
4  BEAUMONT RED         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 122 12.00    
5  PINELAND         (schultz lind)TORRES A 122 10.00    
6  VIGANO Oct02 Apr08 Mar03 Apr16 Mar13 (zito nicho)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 8.00    
7  CHADRON         (mckeever andrew)ACHARD ALEX 122 10.00    
8  BARNSTORMING Oct06 Nov26       (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.00 42% 1.40    
9  SPEED INSTITUTE Sep24 Aug27 Aug05 Jul16 Jun23 (miller jer)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 8% 11.00    
 
CD-7   11/01/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WEATHER MAP Sep23         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00 12% 7.70    
SCR  CALY BALI Sep16 Sep02 Aug05 Jul08 Jun18 (rosin cot)TORRES A 118 20.00    
3  BELPERRON Sep21 Aug31 Aug09 Jul20 Dec08 (manley steve)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 10% 9.10    
4  IN COLOR Sep21 Jun24 May12 Mar31 Mar05 (damato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00    
5  SUMMER OF MISCHIEF Sep28 Dec31 Nov25 Oct21 Sep17 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 15.00    
6  JACKIE'S SPIRIT Sep28 Jul08 Jun15 May12 Apr08 (kordenbrock mat)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
7  FILLY CRYSTAL Sep15         (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  PILLBOX Sep30 Mar26 Mar01 Feb01 Apr28 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 31% 2.20    
9  MEAN SUE Sep20 May11 Apr14 Mar10 Jan04 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
10  MAZOKU Sep28 Jun29       (butcher james)AYALA ISAIAS 120 20.00    
11  ARGUMENTAL Sep15 Apr30 Mar24 Feb19 Nov17 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 120 3.50 22% 3.50    
12  MOTOWN MIKA Sep30 Sep15 Aug01 Jun15 Apr26 (o'connor robe)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
13  ROYAL BLOOD Oct12 Jul31 Jul09 Jun02 May14 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
SCR  MAGNA MASSA Sep30 Sep04 Aug06 Jul12 Jun22 (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 118 5.00    
 
CD-8   11/01/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOLIVIE (IRE) Sep15 Aug13 May12 Mar25   (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 5.00    
2  STRIKINGLY SPUN Aug31 Aug04 Jul08 Jun11 May12 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
SCR  JUNIPERMARSHMALLOW Sep15 Aug19 Dec10 Oct16   (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50    
4  NOM DE PLUME Aug05 Feb03 Dec11     (lobo paul)TORRES A 118 10.00 17% 4.80    
5  ESSAOUIRA Sep09 Jun22 May13 Mar12 Oct07 (motion gra)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
6  MO BILLS Sep09 Aug03 Dec29 Dec01 Oct12 (stidham michael)LANERIE J 120 4.00 20% 4.00    
7  WATCH THIS BIRDIE Oct07 Sep16 Aug12 Jul13 May19 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 4.00 33% 2.00    
SCR  GOLDCREST Oct02 Sep13 Aug01 May27 May07 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 3.50    
SCR  NOMADIC PRIDE Sep24 Aug18 Jun29 May29 Mar25 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00    
 
CD-9   11/01/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMBER CASCADE Sep23 Jan21 Dec31 Nov20 Oct22 (devaux ch)TORRES A 118 4.00 11% 8.00    
2  SHOPLIFTER Sep23 Aug18 Jun29 May29 Apr16 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
3  SECRET STATEMENT Oct11 Sep21 May05 Apr07 Mar02 (baker james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00 9% 10.20    
SCR  HUNTRESS FOR HIRE Sep21 Jul22 May05 Feb18 Jan07 (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00    
5  CALL AGAIN Sep23 Aug28 May28     (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 3.50 12% 7.30    
6  WANDA SUSIE DOOZY Oct01 Aug29 Jul30     (reed r)MCKEE J 121 20.00    
7  SULTRY LASS Feb09         (lovell mic)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 43% 1.30    
8  UP TO SOMETHING Aug12 Jul16 Nov20 Oct09 Sep08 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00    
9  HER LADYSHIP Sep23 Jul14 May27 Apr21 Feb26 (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
10  VOTARY Aug30 Jun29 Feb11 Jan21 Dec22 (peach ch)RODRIGUEZ A 121 20.00    
 
CD-10   11/01/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HONEST OPINION Sep14         (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.00 54% 0.90    
2  I'M YOUR MAN         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 13% 6.80    
3  MASTER SWITCH Sep17 Aug11 Jul15     (contreras c)QUINONEZ ALONSO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  PERFORMANCE PLUS         (lopez elia)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00 10% 8.60    
5  QUENCIO Sep22         (gutierrez faus)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
6  PRETTY FAST Oct11 Jul08       (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00    
7  QUIET RUSH Oct01 Aug27 Jul30     (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 4.00    
8  THEZELENSKYYFACTOR Sep29         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 5.00 ★    
9  WALDRIP Sep20         (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
10  QUEBRANCHO Oct01 Sep03       (gutierrez)TORRES A 119 12.00    
11  THIS TIME BLUE Sep22         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.