The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

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Churchill Downs
Friday - September 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (6/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $11.12 -6.00
    Exacta (6/4/1)-(6/4/1) 6 $2.00 $12.00 2-8 2 0 $75.96 -12.00
    Trifecta (6/4/1)-(6/4/1)-(6/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 2-8-5 3 0 $132.62 -3.00
CD-2   Win (5/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $10.98 -6.00
    Exacta (5/7/2)-(5/7/2) 6 $2.00 $12.00 1-6 2 0 $44.12 -12.00
    Trifecta (5/7/2)-(5/7/2)-(5/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 1-6-7 3 0 $28.84 -3.00
    Daily Double (6/4/1)-(5/7/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 2-1 2 0 $28.98 -9.00
CD-3   Win (5/10/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 0 $22.88 -8.00
    Exacta (5/10/7/6)-(5/10/7/1/6) 16 $2.00 $32.00 2-4 2 0 $128.22 -32.00
    Trifecta (5/10/7/6)-(5/10/7/1/6)-(5/10/7/1/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 2-4-1 3 0 $131.81 -24.00
    Daily Double (5/7/2)-(5/10/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 1-2 2 0 $83.36 -12.00
    Daily Double (5/7/2)-(5/10/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 1-6 2 0 $4.22 -12.00
    Pick Three (6/4/1)-(5/7/2)-(5/10/7/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 2-1-2 3 0 $161.58 -18.00
    Pick Three (6/4/1)-(5/7/2)-(5/10/7/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 2-1-6 3 0 $12.73 -18.00
CD-4   Win (7/5/11/3/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 10 1 0 $185.32 -10.00
    Exacta (7/5/11/3/8)-(7/5/11/3/8) 20 $2.00 $40.00 10-3 2 0 $2104.78 -40.00
    Trifecta (7/5/11/3/8)-(7/5/11/3/8)-(7/5/11/3/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 10-3-8 3 0 $######## -30.00
    Daily Double (5/10/7/6)-(7/5/11/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 2-10 2 0 $711.60 -20.00
    Pick Three (5/7/2)-(5/10/7/6)-(7/5/11/3/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 1-2-10 3 0 $1212.73 -30.00
    Pick Three (5/7/2)-(5/10/7/6)-(7/5/11/3/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 1-6-10 3 0 $127.06 -30.00
CD-5   Win (1/9/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 6 1 1 $5.96 $5.96 -2.04
    Exacta (1/9/8/6)-(1/9/8/6) 12 $2.00 $24.00 6-1 2 1 $20.22 $20.22 -3.78
    Trifecta (1/9/8/6)-(1/9/8/6)-(1/9/8/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 6-1-5 3 0 $25.70 -12.00
    Daily Double (7/5/11/3/8)-(1/9/8/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 10-6 2 0 $551.11 -20.00
    Pick Three (5/10/7/6)-(7/5/11/3/8)-(1/9/8/6) 80 $0.50 $40.00 2-10-6 3 0 $1042.05 -40.00
CD-6   Win (7/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $25.84 -6.00
    Exacta (7/4/3)-(7/4/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00 1-7 2 0 $109.82 -12.00
    Trifecta (7/4/3)-(7/4/3)-(7/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 1-7-5 3 0 $129.55 -3.00
    Daily Double (1/9/8/6)-(7/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 6-1 2 0 $53.11 -12.00
    Pick Three (7/5/11/3/8)-(1/9/8/6)-(7/4/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 10-6-1 3 0 $1755.74 -30.00
CD-7   Win (9/1/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 4 1 0 $34.26 -8.00
    Exacta (9/1/3/7)-(9/1/3/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00 4-9 2 0 $183.48 -24.00
    Trifecta (9/1/3/7)-(9/1/3/7)-(9/1/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 4-9-8 3 0 $380.01 -12.00
    Daily Double (7/4/3)-(9/1/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 1-4 2 0 $120.46 -12.00
    Pick Three (1/9/8/6)-(7/4/3)-(9/1/3/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 6-1-4 3 0 $215.37 -24.00
CD-8   Win (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 0 $17.10 -6.00
    Exacta (3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $2.00 $12.00 6-7 2 0 $236.58 -12.00
    Trifecta (3/2/5)-(3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 6-7-5 3 0 $290.84 -3.00
    Daily Double (9/1/3/7)-(3/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 4-6 2 0 $112.02 -12.00
    Pick Three (7/4/3)-(9/1/3/7)-(3/2/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 1-4-6 3 0 $502.60 -18.00
CD-9   Win (6/8/5/1/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 8 1 1 $8.60 $8.60 -1.40
    Exacta (6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/5/1/4) 20 $2.00 $40.00 8-2 2 0 $55.20 -40.00
    Trifecta (6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/5/1/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 8-2-5 3 0 $66.10 -30.00
    Daily Double (3/2/5)-(6/8/5/1/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 6-8 2 0 $49.54 -15.00
    Pick Three (9/1/3/7)-(3/2/5)-(6/8/5/1/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 4-6-8 3 0 $366.48 -30.00
CD-10   Win (6/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $9.74 -6.00
    Exacta (6/8/1)-(6/8/1) 6 $2.00 $12.00 2-3 2 0 $134.22 -12.00
    Trifecta (6/8/1)-(6/8/1)-(6/8/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 2-3-8 3 0 $198.88 -3.00
    Daily Double (6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 8-2 2 0 $23.27 -15.00
    Pick Three (3/2/5)-(6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/1) 45 $0.50 $22.50 6-8-2 3 0 $154.85 -22.50

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   09/15/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
:234 :474 1:121 1:372   1:441   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LUNA VIEJA 2 1 1 11 12 17 1(amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 120 4.50 4.56  
ACTIVE DUTY 7 4 3 44 4 27 2(stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 5.00 6.66  
DR KRINGLE 5 7 6 6 5 48 3(wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 3.50 6.06  
GAME WARDEN 4 3 43 3 3 69 410¾ (mott i)GARCIA MARTIN 120 3.00 15% 5.50 2.17  
FIRST PLAYER 3 5 54 5 68 59 511¾ (howard neil )HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00 16.48  
DERRICK 6 6 2 21 22 3613 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 47% 1.10 2.50  
FEAR OF UNION 1 2 7 77 7 710½ 720½ (stewart dallas)GRAHAM J 120 8.00 6% 16.50 8.70  
SCR  RUNNINGFORJOY               (tomlinson m)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
 
CD-2   09/15/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
:231 :46 1:113 1:242   1:374   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LUCKY BOSS 1 1 46 4 3½ 11 11 (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 3.50 4.49  
TRIGGER HAPPY 5 2 1 12 2nk 31 21 (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.50 3.10  
CARMICHAEL 6 5 2 22 1nk 21 32 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 122 2.50 29% 2.50 1.23 S
COX CANYON 2 4 6 5 56 54(o'connor rob)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00 5% 19.00 19.73  
LONGSHADOW 4 6 3 3 42 45(asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 42% 1.40 2.79  
MR. PETERKIN 3 3 57 6 6 6611½ (norris mike)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00 36.97  
SCR  COALMINER'S KITTEN               (demeritte lar)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 12.00    
 
CD-3   09/15/2023 4290ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
:223 :461 1:113     1:181   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHE DAZZLE 2 4 31 3   11(danner kels)TORRES A 121 20.00 10.44  
DUPLICITOUS 3 7 54 43   32(hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 4.76  
PRIDDIS 1 9 88 77   63(vanden brittan)EMIGH A 121 6.00 5.11 S
EVERYOTHERWON 6 3 4 53   44(lauer michael)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00 29.19  
L. A. STAR 7 8 910½ 911   810¾ 5(lucas wa)RODRIGUEZ A 121 15.00 57.46  
DONYA KNOW IT 4 2 1½ 2½   5610 (asmussen steve)GEROUX FLORENT 121 1.80 55% 0.80 0.90  
10  TAP N SWAY 8 1 2½ 1½   2710 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 14% 6.00 5.92  
JOAN'S WAY 5 6 6 66   7810¼ (silva carlos)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00 8% 11.70 17.36  
11  HOLDONTOYOURTIARA 9 5 7 88   913¾ 921 (cook b)MILLER CHASE 121 20.00 67.24  
SCR  APRIL'S NO FOOL               (miller jerome)PETERSON FERRIN 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  STANLEY MARKET               (hamilton sarah)NAVAS YOEL 114 3.00    
 
CD-4   09/15/2023 3630ft TURF FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
:224 :462 :584     1:051   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  GET TWISTED 10 10 7 7   61(navarrete an)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00 91.66  
RED RIVER MAGIC 3 3 31 4   32 2(hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 9% 10.30 7.60 P
GOING THE DISTANCE 8 1 1nk 1nk   132 (shirer mat)SANTANA JR 121 15.00 5% 19.00 23.41 S
COWICHAN (IRE) 7 4 4 31   24(ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 121 2.00 36% 1.80 1.59  
THREE POLKS 4 5 8 8   55(ortiz alexa)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 12.00 17.20  
DREAM ON STORMY 6 7 5 52   43 64 (winston d)BEJARANO R 121 30.00 53.75  
BE MISS HATTIE 1 11 11 11   107(davis christop)GEROUX FLORENT 121 20.00 39.46  
SCATLIE 5 6 10 10   986 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 121 4.00 24% 3.20 2.21  
MON DIEU 2 12 12 12   1296 (calhoun wil)TORRES A 121 12.00 22.59  
ENDORA 9 2 2nk 2nk   74 10(cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 9.43  
11  SASSY WALKER 11 8 6 63   86 11(d'amato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 6.00 12% 7.60 9.38  
12  GOLDEN STAR 12 9 9 9   1112(hiles a)GRAHAM J 121 20.00 63.74  
 
CD-5   09/15/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
:241 :483 1:133 1:38   1:444   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NORTHERN FLAME 5 1 11 1½ 1½ 11(mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 119 6.00 6% 16.20 1.98 W
REAL MEN VIOLIN 1 3 31 3 3 22(mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 45% 1.20 2.15 P
CHAPERONE 4 6 65 65 4 46 3(moquett ro)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 6.18  
OMEX 8 5 21 2½ 2½ 36 4(walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 15% 5.50 4.77  
B WAYNE 7 8 89 7 5 5510¾ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 14% 6.30 5.76  
PHREDDIE MAC 6 2 53 4 64 69 612¼ (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 8.00 24.52  
FARM TEAM 3 4 42 5 7 711 719 (arnold r)LANERIE J 119 10.00 20.24  
LUCERITO BLANCO 2 7 78 89 815½ 826 858 (salas felipe)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00 73.16  
SCR  MO RHODES               (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
 
CD-6   09/15/2023 4290ft DIRT FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
:222 :454 1:113     1:182   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COEXIST 1 6 45 5   2½ 1(forster t)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00 11.92  
HOME PORT 7 4 5 3   32(rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00 27% 2.60 4.08 P
CONDIMENT GIRL 5 2 2nk 1½   1½ 3(diodoro rob)TORRES A 121 3.00 1.80  
MOTOWN MIKA 6 3 34 43   54 48 (o'connor robert)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00 33.75  
ARGUMENTAL 3 5 6 7   7512¾ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 20% 3.90 4.17  
WHAT'S TO DO 2 7 7 6   6613¼ (d'amato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 2.50 2.65  
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER 4 1 1nk 2½   44 715¾ (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 4.50 22% 3.60 10.67  
 
CD-7   09/15/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
:234 :48 1:132 1:391   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PARCHMENT PARTY 4 3 911½ 910 9 2nk 1(mott i)GRAHAM J 119 6.00 16.13  
DJANGO 9 9 89 89 7 1nk 2(mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 28% 2.50 4.02 P
WARP NINE 8 8 7 67 6 5¾ 3(mcpeek g)LANERIE J 119 12.00 14.90  
ALLIED VICTORY 7 6 55 53 4 747 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 10% 8.80 10.44  
COLLINS 6 5 3 3 3 65(walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 6.50  
BLACK DIAMOND 3 2 2½ 2½ 1nk 3½ 6(wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 4.00 18% 4.70 3.29  
BAYOU MAGIC 2 1 4 43 5 87(amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 11.55  
LE GRIS 1 7 1½ 1½ 2nk 4¾ 812¼ (stall alber)LEPAROUX R 119 3.50 21% 3.70 2.11  
SHARPENYOURFAITH 5 4 67 78 8 9918½ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 25.58  
 
CD-8   09/15/2023 4290ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 4:22
:222 :452 1:11     1:173   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BALTA 5 3 46 57   2½ 13 (lobo paulo )TORRES A 122 5.00 7.55  
EPIC BATTLE 6 2 5 47   44 23 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00 25.13  
CALL ME ANDY 4 5 3 34   32 3(walsh p)GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.50 16% 5.40 8.68 S
NORMANDY HERO 1 1 1½ 1½   1½ 44 (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 122 3.00 22% 3.60 3.98  
COULDITBEMAJIC 3 7 6 610   65(brennan terry)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 11.76  
AMERICAN RASCAL 2 4 2½ 2½   57 616 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 35% 1.80 0.51  
MI OSCURO SECRETO 7 6 714½ 718   716½ 725½ (bahena ismael)MILLER CHASE 122 30.00 59.61  
SCR  SPONGE BATH               (catalano wa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
 
CD-9   09/15/2023 5940ft TURF FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
:244 :50 1:142 1:391   1:513   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FANCY MARTINI 8 6 42 4 4 1½ 11 (hartman chris)GRAHAM J 122 3.00 19% 4.30 3.30 W
STIR CRAZY 2 8 84 77 76 54 21 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00 3.77  
JOYFUL APPLAUSE 5 3 11 11 11 2½ 3(pitts helen)MOJICA O 122 6.00 12% 7.20 4.20 S
LADY HIDEAWAY 7 2 3 32 32 32 4(wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50 6.06  
10  LILLY LANE 9 9 9 1011 910½ 85(vaughan edward)RAMOS D 120 20.00 39.04  
HONEY HAULER 3 4 21 21 21 46(wismer gle)SANTANA JR 118 20.00 34.97  
SHE'S GONE 1 7 5 5 54 65 7(oliver victoria)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00 5% 19.00 5.81  
FRIENDLYPERSUASION 4 5 63 65 64 78(mccarthy micha)TORRES A 113 12.00 5% 19.00 20.65  
ONE TIME MO 6 1 74 8 8 9910 (pessin l)LANERIE J 122 4.00 43% 1.30 4.74  
11  ROC'S PRINCESS 10 10 10 910½ 1012 1015½ 1034¾ (gowan william)CANNON DECLAN 122 30.00 57.42  
SCR  SWEETS MAKER               (colebrook be)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00    
 
CD-10   09/15/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
:222 :462 :59     1:121   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FILLY CRYSTAL 2 5 1nk 3.2   1nk 1hd (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 120 8.00 3.87  
BIRDIE ROSE 3 1 31 5   32 2hd (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 120 15.00 23.41  
ITSABLINGTHING 7 2 53 1nk   2nk 3(barrett roddi)PETERSON FERRIN 120 5.00 8% 11.70 10.36 S
STAGFLATION 5 3 4 2nk   44(baker james)GRAHAM J 120 3.00 60% 0.70 1.24  
MY BEST DAY EVER 6 4 2nk 4¼   53 5(kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 120 6.00 2.71  
IMPERATOR FURIOSA 1 7 7 6   66 610 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00 12.52  
CHANEL POINT 4 6 6 7   7719 (catalano wa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00 10.11  
SCR  CRUSHED ICE               (quartarolo an)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 4.00    
SCR  MARKET PROFILE               (heath destin)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.