Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Friday - September 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (6/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $11.12  
CD-2   Win (5/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $10.98  
CD-3   Win (5/10/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 0 $22.88  
CD-4   Win (7/5/11/3/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 10 1 0 $185.32  
CD-5   Win (1/9/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 6 1 1 $5.96 $5.96  
CD-6   Win (7/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $25.84  
CD-7   Win (9/1/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 4 1 0 $34.26  
CD-8   Win (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 0 $17.10  
CD-9   Win (6/8/5/1/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 8 1 1 $8.60 $8.60  
CD-10   Win (6/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $9.74  
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   09/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:234 :474 1:121 1:372   1:441   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  LUNA VIEJA 2 1 11½ 11 12 17 18½ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 120 4.50 4.56  
8  ACTIVE DUTY (FR) 7 4 32½ 44 45½ 27 28½ (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 5.00 6.66  
5  DR KRINGLE 5 7 65½ 65½ 56½ 48 38¾ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 3.50 6.06  
4  GAME WARDEN 4 3 43 33½ 35½ 69 410¾ (mott i)GARCIA MARTIN 120 3.00 15% 5.50 2.17  
3  FIRST PLAYER 3 5 54 55½ 68 59 511¾ (howard neil )HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00 16.48  
6  DERRICK 6 6 21½ 21 22 37½ 613 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 47% 1.10 2.50  
1  FEAR OF UNION 1 2 75½ 77 78¼ 710½ 720½ (stewart dallas)GRAHAM J 120 8.00 6% 16.50 8.70  
SCR  RUNNINGFORJOY               (tomlinson m)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
 
CD-2   09/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:231 :46 1:113 1:242   1:374   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUCKY BOSS 1 1 46 45½ 3½ 11 11 (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 3.50 4.49  
6  TRIGGER HAPPY 5 2 11½ 12 2nk 31 21 (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.50 3.10  
7  CARMICHAEL 6 5 21½ 22 1nk 21 32 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 122 2.50 29% 2.50 1.23 S
2  COX CANYON 2 4 68½ 56½ 56 55½ 46¾ (o'connor rob)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00 5% 19.00 19.73  
5  LONGSHADOW 4 6 33½ 32½ 42 43½ 57¼ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 42% 1.40 2.79  
3  MR. PETERKIN 3 3 57 68½ 66¼ 66½ 611½ (norris mike)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00 36.97  
SCR  COALMINER'S KITTEN               (demeritte lar)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 12.00    
 
CD-3   09/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:223 :461 1:113     1:181   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  SHE DAZZLE 2 4 31 31½   11½ 11¼ (danner kels)TORRES A 121 20.00 10.44  
4  DUPLICITOUS 3 7 54 43   31½ 21¼ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 4.76  
1  PRIDDIS 1 9 88 77   65¼ 31¾ (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 121 6.00 ★ 5.11 S
8  EVERYOTHERWON 6 3 43½ 53   43½ 43½ (lauer michael)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00 29.19  
9  L. A. STAR 7 8 910½ 911   810¾ 58½ (lucas wa)RODRIGUEZ A 121 15.00 57.46  
5  DONYA KNOW IT 4 2 1½ 2½   53¾ 610 (asmussen steve)GEROUX FLORENT 121 1.80 55% 0.80 0.90  
10  TAP N SWAY 8 1 2½ 1½   21½ 710 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 14% 6.00 5.92  
7  JOAN'S WAY 5 6 65½ 66   78¼ 810¼ (silva carlos)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00 8% 11.70 17.36  
11  HOLDONTOYOURTIARA 9 5 75½ 88   913¾ 921 (cook b)MILLER CHASE 121 20.00 67.24  
SCR  APRIL'S NO FOOL               (miller jerome)PETERSON FERRIN 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  STANLEY MARKET               (hamilton sarah)NAVAS YOEL 114 3.00    
 
CD-4   09/15/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:224 :462 :584     1:051   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  GET TWISTED 10 10 74¼ 73½   63½ 11¾ (navarrete an)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00 91.66  
3  RED RIVER MAGIC 3 3 31 41½   32 21¾ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 9% 10.30 7.60 P
8  GOING THE DISTANCE 8 1 1nk 1nk   11½ 32 (shirer mat)SANTANA JR 121 15.00 5% 19.00 23.41 S
7  COWICHAN (IRE) 7 4 41½ 31   21½ 42½ (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 121 2.00 36% 1.80 1.59  
4  THREE POLKS 4 5 84¼ 83¾   53½ 53¼ (ortiz alexa)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 12.00 17.20  
6  DREAM ON STORMY 6 7 51¾ 52   43 64 (winston d)BEJARANO R 121 30.00 53.75  
1  BE MISS HATTIE 1 11 117¼ 116¾   107¼ 75½ (davis christop)GEROUX FLORENT 121 20.00 39.46  
5  SCATLIE 5 6 105¾ 105¾   96¼ 86 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 121 4.00 24% 3.20 2.21  
2  MON DIEU 2 12 128¾ 128¾   127½ 96 (calhoun wil)TORRES A 121 12.00 22.59  
9  ENDORA 9 2 2nk 2nk   74 107¼ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 9.43  
11  SASSY WALKER 11 8 63¼ 63   86 118½ (d'amato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 6.00 12% 7.60 9.38  
12  GOLDEN STAR 12 9 95¼ 95¼   117¼ 128¾ (hiles a)GRAHAM J 121 20.00 63.74  
 
CD-5   09/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:241 :483 1:133 1:38   1:444   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  NORTHERN FLAME 5 1 11 1½ 1½ 11½ 11½ (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 119 6.00 6% 16.20 1.98 W
1  REAL MEN VIOLIN 1 3 31 31½ 31½ 21½ 21½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 45% 1.20 2.15 P
5  CHAPERONE 4 6 65 65 43½ 46 37¾ (moquett ro)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 6.18  
9  OMEX 8 5 21 2½ 2½ 36 49¾ (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 15% 5.50 4.77  
8  B WAYNE 7 8 89 76½ 53½ 57½ 510¾ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 14% 6.30 5.76  
7  PHREDDIE MAC 6 2 53 43½ 64 69 612¼ (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 8.00 24.52  
3  FARM TEAM 3 4 42 53½ 76½ 711 719 (arnold r)LANERIE J 119 10.00 20.24  
2  LUCERITO BLANCO 2 7 78 89 815½ 826 858 (salas felipe)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00 73.16  
SCR  MO RHODES               (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
 
CD-6   09/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:222 :454 1:113     1:182   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COEXIST 1 6 45 54½   2½ 13¼ (forster t)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00 11.92  
7  HOME PORT 7 4 55¼ 32½   31½ 23¼ (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00 27% 2.60 4.08 P
5  CONDIMENT GIRL 5 2 2nk 1½   1½ 33¾ (diodoro rob)TORRES A 121 3.00 1.80  
6  MOTOWN MIKA 6 3 34 43   54 48 (o'connor robert)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00 33.75  
3  ARGUMENTAL 3 5 65¾ 78½   77½ 512¾ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 20% 3.90 4.17  
2  WHAT'S TO DO 2 7 77¾ 65½   66½ 613¼ (d'amato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 2.50 2.65  
4  ONE WAY OR ANOTHER 4 1 1nk 2½   44 715¾ (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 4.50 22% 3.60 10.67  
 
CD-7   09/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:234 :48 1:132 1:391   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  PARCHMENT PARTY 4 3 911½ 910 98¼ 2nk 11¼ (mott i)GRAHAM J 119 6.00 16.13  
9  DJANGO 9 9 89 89 75¼ 1nk 21¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 28% 2.50 4.02 P
8  WARP NINE 8 8 78½ 67 64¾ 5¾ 33¼ (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 119 12.00 14.90  
7  ALLIED VICTORY 7 6 55 53 41¾ 72¼ 47 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 10% 8.80 10.44  
6  COLLINS 6 5 32½ 31½ 31½ 61¾ 57¾ (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 6.50  
3  BLACK DIAMOND 3 2 2½ 2½ 1nk 3½ 67¾ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 4.00 18% 4.70 3.29  
2  BAYOU MAGIC 2 1 44½ 43 52¾ 82½ 78¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 11.55  
1  LE GRIS 1 7 1½ 1½ 2nk 4¾ 812¼ (stall alber)LEPAROUX R 119 3.50 21% 3.70 2.11  
5  SHARPENYOURFAITH 5 4 67 78 87¾ 97½ 918½ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 25.58  
 
CD-8   09/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:222 :452 1:11     1:173   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  BALTA 5 3 46 57   2½ 13 (lobo paulo )TORRES A 122 5.00 7.55  
7  EPIC BATTLE 6 2 58½ 47   44 23 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00 25.13  
5  CALL ME ANDY 4 5 33½ 34   32 33¾ (walsh p)GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.50 16% 5.40 8.68 S
2  NORMANDY HERO 1 1 1½ 1½   1½ 44 (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 122 3.00 22% 3.60 3.98  
4  COULDITBEMAJIC 3 7 68½ 610   68½ 58½ (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 11.76  
3  AMERICAN RASCAL 2 4 2½ 2½   57 616 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 35% 1.80 0.51  
8  MI OSCURO SECRETO 7 6 714½ 718   716½ 725½ (bahena ismael)MILLER CHASE 122 30.00 59.61  
SCR  SPONGE BATH               (catalano wa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
 
CD-9   09/15/2023 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:244 :50 1:142 1:391   1:513   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  FANCY MARTINI 8 6 42 42½ 42½ 1½ 11 (hartman chris)GRAHAM J 122 3.00 19% 4.30 3.30 W
2  STIR CRAZY 2 8 84 77 76 54 21 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00 3.77  
5  JOYFUL APPLAUSE 5 3 11 11 11 2½ 32¾ (pitts helen)MOJICA O 122 6.00 12% 7.20 4.20 S
7  LADY HIDEAWAY 7 2 31½ 32 32 32 42¾ (wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50 6.06  
10  LILLY LANE 9 9 96½ 1011 910½ 86½ 55¼ (vaughan edward)RAMOS D 120 20.00 39.04  
3  HONEY HAULER 3 4 21 21 21 43½ 67¾ (wismer gle)SANTANA JR 118 20.00 34.97  
1  SHE'S GONE 1 7 52½ 54½ 54 65 78¾ (oliver victoria)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00 5% 19.00 5.81  
4  FRIENDLYPERSUASION 4 5 63 65 64 76½ 89½ (mccarthy micha)TORRES A 113 12.00 5% 19.00 20.65  
6  ONE TIME MO 6 1 74 88½ 88½ 98½ 910 (pessin l)LANERIE J 122 4.00 43% 1.30 4.74  
11  ROC'S PRINCESS 10 10 106¾ 910½ 1012 1015½ 1034¾ (gowan william)CANNON DECLAN 122 30.00 57.42  
SCR  SWEETS MAKER               (colebrook be)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00    
 
CD-10   09/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
See original race card.
:222 :462 :59     1:121   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  FILLY CRYSTAL 2 5 1nk 3.2   1nk 1hd (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 120 8.00 3.87  
3  BIRDIE ROSE 3 1 31 51¾   32 2hd (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 120 15.00 23.41  
8  ITSABLINGTHING 7 2 53 1nk   2nk 31¼ (barrett roddi)PETERSON FERRIN 120 5.00 8% 11.70 10.36 S
6  STAGFLATION 5 3 42½ 2nk   42½ 45¼ (baker james)GRAHAM J 120 3.00 60% 0.70 1.24  
7  MY BEST DAY EVER 6 4 2nk 4¼   53 55¾ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 120 6.00 2.71  
1  IMPERATOR FURIOSA 1 7 74¾ 64¼   66 610 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00 12.52  
4  CHANEL POINT 4 6 63¼ 75¾   78½ 719 (catalano wa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00 10.11  
SCR  CRUSHED ICE               (quartarolo an)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 4.00    
SCR  MARKET PROFILE               (heath destin)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.