Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - September 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (6/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/1)-(6/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/1)-(6/4/1)-(6/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/1)-(5/7/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1)-(5/7/2)-(5/10/7) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/2)-(5/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/2)-(5/7/2)-(5/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/7/2)-(5/10/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/7/2)-(5/10/7)-(7/5/11/3/8) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/10/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/10/7)-(5/10/7/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/10/7)-(5/10/7/1)-(5/10/7/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/10/7)-(7/5/11/3/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/10/7)-(7/5/11/3/8)-(1/9/8/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (7/5/11/3/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/5/11/3/8)-(7/5/11/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/5/11/3/8)-(7/5/11/3/8)-(7/5/11/3/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/5/11/3/8)-(1/9/8/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/5/11/3/8)-(1/9/8/6)-(7/4/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (1/9/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/9/8/6)-(1/9/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/9/8/6)-(1/9/8/6)-(1/9/8/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/9/8/6)-(7/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/9/8/6)-(7/4/3)-(9/1/3/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-6   WIN (7/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/3)-(7/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/3)-(7/4/3)-(7/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/3)-(9/1/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/3)-(9/1/3/7)-(3/2/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (9/1/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/1/3/7)-(9/1/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/1/3/7)-(9/1/3/7)-(9/1/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/1/3/7)-(3/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/1/3/7)-(3/2/5)-(6/8/5/1/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/5)-(3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/5)-(6/8/5/1/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/2/5)-(6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/1) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-9   WIN (6/8/5/1/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/5/1/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/5/1/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-10   WIN (6/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/8/1)-(6/8/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/8/1)-(6/8/1)-(6/8/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FEAR OF UNION Aug26 Jul16 May06     (stewart dallas)GRAHAM J 120 8.00 6% 16.50    
2  LUNA VIEJA Aug26 Jun29 Jun02 Apr14 Jan28 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 4.50    
3  FIRST PLAYER Aug11 Jul23 Jul02     (howard nei)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00    
4  GAME WARDEN Jun02 May02 Feb26 Jan14 Oct15 (mott william )GARCIA MARTIN 120 3.00 15% 5.50    
5  DR KRINGLE Aug24 Jul16 Jun25 Jun02 Apr27 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 3.50    
6  DERRICK Aug08         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 47% 1.10    
SCR  RUNNINGFORJOY May28 Apr28       (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
8  ACTIVE DUTY (FR) Aug18 Aug05 Jun10 Jun18 May20 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 5.00    
 
CD-2   09/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUCKY BOSS Aug06 Jun10 May13 Apr02 Mar10 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 3.50    
2  COX CANYON Apr26 Apr08 Mar29 Feb26 Feb05 (o'connor r)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  MR. PETERKIN Aug20 May27 Apr23 Apr01 Feb04 (norris mike)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00    
SCR  COALMINER'S KITTEN Aug27 Aug06 Jul16 Apr20 Apr01 (demeritte l)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 12.00    
5  LONGSHADOW Aug06 Jul22 Jun22 May26 Apr19 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 42% 1.40    
6  TRIGGER HAPPY Jul08 Jun15 Jun02 May12 Mar22 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.50    
7  CARMICHAEL Aug04 Jun01 May11 Feb05 Nov23 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 2.50 29% 2.50    
 
CD-3   09/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRIDDIS Aug12 Jul31 Jun25 Jun03 Apr21 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 6.00 ★    
2  SHE DAZZLE Aug12 Jul09 Dec23 Dec07 Oct17 (danner ke)TORRES A 121 20.00    
SCR  STANLEY MARKET Aug12 Jul07 May28 Dec18 Nov03 (hamilton sarah)NAVAS YOEL 114 3.00    
4  DUPLICITOUS Aug28 Jul30 Jul09 May28 May10 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00    
5  DONYA KNOW IT Jul07 Jun16 May14 Mar04 Feb11 (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 121 1.80 55% 0.80    
SCR  APRIL'S NO FOOL Jul27 Jul14 Jun23 Apr12 Aug03 (miller jero)PETERSON FERRIN 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  JOAN'S WAY Aug22 Jul26 Jul06 Jun14 Jun06 (silva carl)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00 8% 11.70    
8  EVERYOTHERWON Aug23 Aug02 May11 Mar10 Jan20 (lauer michael)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00    
9  L. A. STAR Aug28 Jul30 Jul14 Jun24 Jun09 (lucas t )RODRIGUEZ A 121 15.00    
10  TAP N SWAY Aug12 Jul09 May23 Jan20 Nov21 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 14% 6.00    
11  HOLDONTOYOURTIARA Aug23 Aug10 Jul30 Jun16 May14 (cook b)MILLER CHASE 121 20.00    
 
CD-4   09/15/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BE MISS HATTIE Sep02 Jul31       (davis christ)GEROUX FLORENT 121 20.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  MON DIEU         (calhoun w)TORRES A 121 12.00    
  (by BLAME out of SPEIGHTLASS by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
3  RED RIVER MAGIC Jul09         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 9% 10.30    
  (by JUSTIFY out of LEMHILL BASR by QUALITY ROAD)
4  THREE POLKS         (ortiz ale)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 12.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of INDIAN STREET by STREET SENSE)
5  SCATLIE Aug06 Jul08 Jun02     (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 121 4.00 24% 3.20    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CANA by FASTNET ROCK (AUS))
6  DREAM ON STORMY Sep03         (winston d)BEJARANO R 121 30.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of LU BATON by ROAR)
7  COWICHAN (IRE) Apr23 Sep01 Aug04 Jun30 May20 (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 121 2.00 36% 1.80    
  (by KODIAC (GB) out of SHEHILA by ZAMINDAR)
8  GOING THE DISTANCE Aug25 Mar26 Mar01     (shirer m)SANTANA JR 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of SHEISINITTOWINIT by STUDENT COUNCIL)
9  ENDORA         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of QUEEN OF COUNTRY by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
10  GET TWISTED         (navarrete )LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of BIRD SWING by BIRDSTONE)
11  SASSY WALKER Jul21 Jun25 May20 Apr21   (d'amato phili)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 6.00 12% 7.60    
  (by MUNNINGS out of SASINI by FASTNET ROCK)
12  GOLDEN STAR Mar18 Feb18 Jan16 Nov12   (hiles a)GRAHAM J 121 20.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of LAKE SEBAGO by MUNNINGS)
 
CD-5   09/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REAL MEN VIOLIN Aug25 Jul14       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 45% 1.20    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of MEG FITZ by TAPIT)
2  LUCERITO BLANCO Jul29         (salas felipe)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00    
  (by UNIFIED out of DAYLIGHT RIDE by EL PRADO (IRE))
3  FARM TEAM Aug06         (arnold r)LANERIE J 119 10.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of PADMORE by FRENCH DEPUTY)
SCR  MO RHODES Aug11         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of MO D'AMOUR by UNCLE MO)
5  CHAPERONE Aug12         (moquett )SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
  (by CURLIN out of IT TIZ WELL by ARCH)
6  NORTHERN FLAME Aug28 Jul21       (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 6.00 6% 16.20    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of DARLING'S DARLING by BERNARDINI)
7  PHREDDIE MAC Aug28 Jul21 Jun15     (asmussen )TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FINANCIAL RECOVERY by STREET CRY (IRE))
8  B WAYNE Aug13         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 14% 6.30    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of WEALTH EFFECT by CURLIN)
9  OMEX Aug13 Jul21 Jun15     (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 15% 5.50    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
 
CD-6   09/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COEXIST Aug19 Jul16 Jul02 Jun11 May27 (forster grant)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
2  WHAT'S TO DO Jun03 May03 Nov10 Oct10 Sep14 (d'amato phili)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 2.50    
3  ARGUMENTAL Apr30 Mar24 Feb19 Nov17 Oct26 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 20% 3.90    
4  ONE WAY OR ANOTHER Jun11 Apr30 Apr01 Mar10 Feb20 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 4.50 22% 3.60    
5  CONDIMENT GIRL Aug27 Jul13 Jun17 May04 Mar09 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 3.00    
6  MOTOWN MIKA Aug01 Jun15 Apr26 Mar31 Jan25 (o'connor robe)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
7  HOME PORT Jun18 May04       (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00 27% 2.60    
 
CD-7   09/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LE GRIS Aug05         (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 119 3.50 21% 3.70    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of CHICA BOOM CHIC by TAPIT)
2  BAYOU MAGIC         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of KRAZY KATHY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
3  BLACK DIAMOND Aug18 Jul21       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 4.00 18% 4.70    
  (by STREET SENSE out of SNOW FALL by WAR FRONT)
4  PARCHMENT PARTY         (mott i)GRAHAM J 119 6.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LIFE WELL LIVED by TIZNOW)
5  SHARPENYOURFAITH Jul30         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of SWAKOPMUND by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
6  COLLINS Aug13 Jul08       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of LADY LAVERY by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
7  ALLIED VICTORY Aug13         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 10% 8.80    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of TARALENA by ARCH)
8  WARP NINE Aug13         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 12.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of POWERTAP by TAPIT)
9  DJANGO Aug05 Jul01       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 28% 2.50    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of DAY OF VICTORY by VICTORY GALLOP)
 
CD-8   09/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SPONGE BATH Aug31 Jul30       (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
2  NORMANDY HERO Aug12 Jul01       (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 122 3.00 22% 3.60    
3  AMERICAN RASCAL Apr20         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 35% 1.80    
4  COULDITBEMAJIC Aug13 Jul15 Jun24     (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 122 6.00    
5  CALL ME ANDY Aug13 Jul02 Jun01     (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.50 16% 5.40    
6  BALTA Aug13 Jul23 Jun17     (lobo paul)TORRES A 122 5.00    
7  EPIC BATTLE Aug09         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
8  MI OSCURO SECRETO Jun03 May03       (bahena ismael)MILLER CHASE 122 30.00    
 
CD-9   09/15/2023 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHE'S GONE Aug11 Jul01 May18 Apr22 Feb04 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
2  STIR CRAZY Aug02 Jun23 Jun10 Feb25 Aug31 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00    
3  HONEY HAULER Aug23 Aug07 Jul19 Jun19 May24 (wismer g)SANTANA JR 118 20.00    
4  FRIENDLYPERSUASION Jul08 Jun11 Oct09 Sep17 Aug10 (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 113 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  JOYFUL APPLAUSE Aug05 Jun22 May18 May02 Dec21 (pitts helen)MOJICA O 122 6.00 12% 7.20    
6  ONE TIME MO Jul01 May18 Apr12 Dec22 Nov06 (pessin l)LANERIE J 122 4.00 43% 1.30    
7  LADY HIDEAWAY Aug06 Jul02 Jun04 Apr16 Sep13 (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50    
8  FANCY MARTINI Aug06 Jul01 May18 Mar02 Jan21 (hartman chris)GRAHAM J 122 3.00 19% 4.30    
SCR  SWEETS MAKER Jul14 Jun18 May18 Mar23 Feb25 (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00    
10  LILLY LANE Aug26 Aug05 Jun22 Nov10 Oct15 (vaughan edwa)RAMOS D 120 20.00    
11  ROC'S PRINCESS Aug08 Jun14 May05 Apr01 Feb23 (gowan william)CANNON DECLAN 122 30.00    
 
CD-10   09/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IMPERATOR FURIOSA         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of OBNOXIOUS by SILVER CHARM)
2  FILLY CRYSTAL         (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 120 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of STAINLESS by FLATTER)
3  BIRDIE ROSE Aug26 Aug01 Jul08 May02 Sep24 (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 120 15.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of HOMEMADE SALSA by TWO STEP SALSA)
4  CHANEL POINT Sep13 Aug20 Jul31     (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00    
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of LAURENMYCHANELGIRL by AFLEET ALEX)
SCR  MARKET PROFILE Jun27 Nov26 Oct30 Sep23   (heath dest)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of RECOUPE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
6  STAGFLATION Aug18         (baker james)GRAHAM J 120 3.00 60% 0.70    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of REAL POINT by POINT OF ENTRY)
7  MY BEST DAY EVER         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 120 6.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of BARGAIN BLITZ by RAHY)
8  ITSABLINGTHING Aug30 Jul08 May29 May04 Apr15 (barrett rod)PETERSON FERRIN 120 5.00 8% 11.70    
  (by PONTIFF out of IT'S MY KNIGHT by YES IT'S TRUE)
SCR  CRUSHED ICE Sep03 Aug18       (quartarolo )GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 4.00    
  (by CONNECT out of STARLET STORM by THE FACTOR)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.