The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

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Ellis Park
Monday - August 28, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $6.44 $6.44 0.44
    Exacta (3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $2.00 $12.00 3-5 2 1 $32.92 $32.92 20.92
    Trifecta (3/2/5)-(3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 3-5-8 3 0 $43.72 -3.00
ELP-2   Win (5/4/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 0 $9.10 -8.00
    Exacta (5/4/7/8)-(5/4/7/8) 12 $2.00 $24.00 2-4 2 0 $70.62 -24.00
    Trifecta (5/4/7/8)-(5/4/7/8)-(5/4/7/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 2-4-7 3 0 $191.90 -12.00
    Daily Double (5/4/7/8)-(5/4/7/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 3-2 2 0 $21.73 -16.00
ELP-3   Win (3/6/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $11.92 $11.92 3.92
    Exacta (3/6/5/8)-(3/6/5/8) 12 $2.00 $24.00 8-2 2 0 $65.20 -24.00
    Trifecta (3/6/5/8)-(3/6/5/8)-(3/6/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 8-2-6 3 0 $74.06 -12.00
    Daily Double (3/6/5/8)-(3/6/5/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 2-8 2 0 $26.76 -16.00
    Pick Three (3/6/5/8)-(3/6/5/8)-(3/6/5/8) 64 $0.50 $32.00 3-2-8 3 0 $64.43 -32.00
ELP-4   Win (8/6/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 0 $7.52 -8.00
    Exacta (8/6/2/5)-(8/6/2/5) 12 $2.00 $24.00 1-8 2 0 $21.18 -24.00
    Trifecta (8/6/2/5)-(8/6/2/5)-(8/6/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 1-8-2 3 0 $21.30 -12.00
    Daily Double (8/6/2/5)-(8/6/2/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 8-1 2 0 $22.66 -16.00
    Pick Three (8/6/2/5)-(8/6/2/5)-(8/6/2/5) 64 $0.50 $32.00 2-8-1 3 0 $59.11 -32.00
ELP-5   Win (6/5/11/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 6 1 1 $6.16 $6.16 -1.84
    Exacta (6/5/11/9)-(6/5/11/9) 12 $2.00 $24.00 6-2 2 0 $11.86 -24.00
    Trifecta (6/5/11/9)-(6/5/11/9)-(6/5/11/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 6-2-7 3 0 $16.34 -12.00
    Daily Double (6/5/11/9)-(6/5/11/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 1-6 2 0 $12.30 -16.00
    Pick Three (6/5/11/9)-(6/5/11/9)-(6/5/11/9) 64 $0.50 $32.00 8-1-6 3 0 $50.02 -32.00
ELP-6   Win (2/6/9/11/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 2 1 1 $3.76 $3.76 -6.24
    Exacta (2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3) 20 $2.00 $40.00 2-3 2 1 $129.62 $129.62 89.62
    Trifecta (2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 2-3-9 3 1 $145.59 $145.59 115.59
    Daily Double (2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 6-5 2 0 $2.75 -25.00
    Daily Double (2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 6-2 2 1 $7.42 $7.42 -17.58
    Pick Three (2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3) 125 $0.50 $62.50 1-6-5 3 0 $6.31 -62.50
    Pick Three (2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3) 125 $0.50 $62.50 1-6-2 3 0 $17.22 -62.50
ELP-7   Win (9/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 0 $3.40 -6.00
    Exacta (9/4/5)-(9/4/7/5) 9 $2.00 $18.00 7-3 2 0 $44.08 -18.00
    Trifecta (9/4/5)-(9/4/7/5)-(9/4/7/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 7-3-2 3 0 $64.98 -9.00
    Daily Double (9/4/5)-(9/4/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 2-7 2 0 $4.94 -9.00
    Pick Three (9/4/5)-(9/4/5)-(9/4/5) 27 $0.50 $13.50 6-5-7 3 0 $3.11 -13.50
    Pick Three (9/4/5)-(9/4/5)-(9/4/5) 27 $0.50 $13.50 6-2-7 3 0 $8.50 -13.50
ELP-8   Win (2/5/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $24.88 $24.88 16.88
    Exacta (2/5/3/6)-(2/5/3/6) 12 $2.00 $24.00 3-2 2 1 $53.04 $53.04 29.04
    Trifecta (2/5/3/6)-(2/5/3/6)-(2/5/3/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 3-2-6 3 1 $63.33 $63.33 51.33
    Daily Double (2/5/3/6)-(2/5/3/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 7-3 2 0 $17.58 -16.00
    Pick Three (2/5/3/6)-(2/5/3/6)-(2/5/3/6) 64 $0.50 $32.00 2-7-3 3 0 $40.39 -32.00
ELP-9   Win (9/13/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 4 1 0 $36.90 -8.00
    Exacta (9/13/6/5)-(9/13/6/5) 12 $2.00 $24.00 4-9 2 0 $130.52 -24.00
    Trifecta (9/13/6/5)-(9/13/6/5)-(9/13/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 4-9-13 3 0 $185.72 -12.00
    Daily Double (9/13/6/5)-(9/13/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 3-4 2 0 $120.80 -16.00
    Pick Three (9/13/6/5)-(9/13/6/5)-(9/13/6/5) 64 $3.00 $192.00 6-7-4 3 0 $850.08 -192.00
    Pick Three (9/13/6/5)-(9/13/6/5)-(9/13/6/5) 64 $0.50 $32.00 7-3-4 3 0 $213.54 -32.00

Simulator Race results

 
ELP-1   08/28/2023 4290ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
:223 :454 1:114     1:183   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FOREVER COOL 3 7 5 33   2½ 1(scherer marianne)BEJARANO R 124 3.00 29% 2.50 2.22 W
GILDED CRAKEN 4 3 1 12   1½ 2(wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 6.00 11% 8.30 2.80 P
MO MOVES 7 4 65 43   43(medina robert)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 5.73  
SHARP STICK 6 2 77 6   548 (divito james)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 7.30  
RATE CONFIRMATION 2 6 33 22   35(foley greg)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 25% 3.10 4.18  
HIJACK THE PARTY 1 5 2 5   6617¾ (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00 7.23  
COMMANDER REX 5 1 4 710¾   715½ 740¼ (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 16.75  
SCR  PINFIRE               (tomlinson a)GRAHAM J 119 5.00    
 
ELP-2   08/28/2023 5610ft TURF FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
:234 :474 1:122 1:37   1:432   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MORE THAN GLORY 2 4 55 5 8 42 1¼ (walsh p)ELLIOTT JANE 118 6.00 3.55  
CHARLEY RUDE 4 2 44 45 3 1nk 2¼ (cano munoz)CHUAN MARTIN 123 3.50 10% 8.70 8.68 P
HAMMERDONHAPPINESS 7 7 77 8 7 53(contreras )RODRIGUEZ A 113 8.00 9% 10.50 13.88 S
MISCHIEVOUS GAL 6 5 21 2 1½ 2nk 44 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 4.71  
FAST GAL 1 1 33 35 53 31 5(porter michael)COURT K 118 15.00 16.62  
CLOUDY BAY 3 6 66 67 63 64 613 (davis christop)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 5.00 3.61  
ECONOMIC HANGOVER 5 3 11 1 2½ 75 716¼ (diodoro rob)TORRES A 123 3.50 58% 0.70 4.22  
MY BLUE VALENTINE 8 8 88 7 42 8817¼ (hill f)BEJARANO R 125 10.00 5% 19.00 4.47  
 
ELP-3   08/28/2023 4290ft DIRT FAST Optional Claiming ($15K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
:232 :472 1:113     1:18   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CHOCTAW BINGO 8 1 2½ 1½   1nk 1hd (stinson william)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00 5% 19.00 4.96 W
FOREVER HOME 2 7 31 4   2nk 2hd (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 122 8.00 5.60  
CHARGE ACCOUNT 6 3 8 6   43¾ (gutierrez f)TORRES A 122 4.00 14% 6.20 2.03 S
HASHTAG WINNER 3 8 52 3   34(cano munoz)BEJARANO R 124 2.00 56% 0.80 2.08  
DUPLICITOUS 4 5 1½ 2½   556 (hartman chris)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 4.00 6.41  
L. A. STAR 1 6 4 5   66(lucas wa)RODRIGUEZ A 117 15.00 28.25  
JERSEY GOLD 7 2 6 7   710¼ 714½ (nesbitt amy)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 12.00 73.35  
SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI 5 4 7 8   812¼ 820½ (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 122 5.00 5% 19.00 16.38  
 
ELP-4   08/28/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
:232 :47 1:12 1:244   1:381   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CALL AGAIN 1 3 53 3 11 113 (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 2.50 2.76  
EXCELLENT QUESTION 8 8 7 6 32 223 (walsh p)BEJARANO R 118 3.00 43% 1.30 2.60 P
FLASHY LASS 2 2 11 1 21 33(cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 5% 19.00 5.29 S
FLIRTING GIRL 3 1 21 2 44 49 418½ (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 12.00 8.64  
MADLY DANCING 4 4 8 7 7 712¼ 519 (ortiz alex)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 42.20  
HEART HEADED WOMAN 5 6 32 42 58 512 620¼ (drury thomas )PETERSON FERRIN 124 8.00 5% 19.00 6.97  
OVERINDULGENCE 7 7 42 53 68 612¼ 720¾ (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00 11.57  
VELOCHEETAH 6 5 64 8 817½ 821¼ 843¼ (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 31% 2.30 4.59  
 
ELP-5   08/28/2023 3630ft TURF FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 2:45
:221 :451 :57     1:031   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CANDI GIRL 5 1 2 2½   13 1(cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 41% 1.50 2.08 W
WONDER WAVE (IRE) 2 7 53 5   42(lynch a)BEJARANO R null   0.90  
BIG DREAMER 6 3 3 3½   23 3(mott riley)TORRES A 119 10.00 18.14  
11  TIPSY RUNNER 10 6 4 41   34 4(amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 6% 15.00 8.99  
STANDOUTSENSATION 4 5 6 64   55(calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.00 33% 2.00 12.28  
SAKURA SKY 1 10 10 97   66(walden wil)RODRIGUEZ A 114 30.00 33.25  
LIVI ME DREAMING 8 8 7 8   810½ 710¾ (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00 5% 19.00 23.60  
10  RUN RUN RABBIT 9 9 8 7   710 810¾ (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 119 30.00 59.89  
PLEASINGLY 3 4 9 108   912 912¼ (moquett ronald )GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 41.72  
MISS PEARL HART 7 2 1 1½   1014 1021¾ (hartman chris)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00 39.53  
SCR  RAINY NIGHT               (lynch brian )MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
 
ELP-6   08/28/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:18
:232 :471 1:12 1:242   1:372   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GENEROUS TIPPER 2 1 21 1nk 1nk 11(mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 39% 1.60 0.88 W
GREERS FERRY 3 2 3 3½ 2nk 22(lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00 51.55 P
NORTHERN FLAME 8 5 54 53 3 3310 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 119 8.00 11% 8.00 4.62 S
11  PHREDDIE MAC 10 10 89 86 6 49 416 (asmussen steven )MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 7% 13.40 19.04  
ASPIRING COMEDIAN 4 8 1014½ 1012½ 810¾ 611½ 516¾ (pletcher a)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 14.51  
BENVOLIO 6 6 4 4 54 511 619¾ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00 11.82  
10  GOTTA HAVE DREAMS 9 9 911 9 912¼ 816½ 727 (hamilton sara)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 50.00 65.00  
LOU'S LEGACY 7 3 11 2nk 4 713½ 831¾ (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 119 20.00 20.57  
ARMY OFFICER 1 4 78 7 710½ 918½ 934 (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 119 8.00 11.68  
DYNAMIS 5 7 6 6 1012¾ 1019 1037½ (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 2.50 19% 4.20 5.42  
SCR  DUTCH MILLS               (ortiz alexand)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
SCR  RECORD TIME               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
 
ELP-7   08/28/2023 5940ft TURF FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
:25 :494 1:132 1:363   1:482   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
F FIVE 7 5 11 1½ 1nk 1nk 1½ (lynch a)GRAHAM J 122 2.00 0.70  
O P FIRECRACKER 3 2 4 4 3 2nk 2½ (medina robe)TORRES A 122 20.00 24.41  
STOLEN BASE 2 4 3 32 4 32 3(maker j)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00 8.50  
PUNCH HARD 5 3 87 8 8 743 (beckman whitwort)BEJARANO R 122 20.00 5% 19.00 11.71  
KITTEN MISCHIEF 8 8 7 7 6 65(thomas jonat)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 39% 1.60 3.79  
FOUNDER 4 7 64 64 5 56(maker michael)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 4.00 33% 2.00 9.24  
MR. BIG NEWS 6 6 21 2½ 2nk 47(calhoun william )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 10.00 12.90  
TIZ OF THEE 1 1 53 54 7 8816¼ (hancock dana)MORALES EDGAR 122 30.00 41.22  
SCR  UNINVITED GUEST               (mcgee paul)LANERIE J 122 8.00    
 
ELP-8   08/28/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
:234 :473 1:121 1:244   1:374   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FOGO ISLAND 3 2 3 3 21 2½ 12 (lobo paulo )TORRES A 120 3.50 12% 7.40 11.44 W
INSIGNIA 2 6 64 74 33 33 22 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 1.00 35% 1.80 0.19 P
KANTEX 6 4 4 43 45 43(morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 122 15.00 5% 18.90 27.52 S
MERCY WARREN 7 1 11 11 11 1½ 44 (o'connor robert )MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00 17.10  
CHIQUITA MOSCA 1 5 913½ 912½ 911½ 59 5(bahena ism)RODRIGUEZ A 113 30.00 34.92  
MY KENTUCKY GIRL 8 8 8 87 7 69 615¾ (engler jeff)LANERIE J 122 10.00 13.46  
BORN DAPPER 5 7 53 6 5 711½ 724¼ (thomas jonath)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00 22% 3.50 18.63  
TAP DANCING LADY 9 9 7 5 67 812½ 824¼ (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 122 20.00 33.09  
KLOEPATRA 4 3 21 21 810 915½ 936½ (puhich mike)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 25.00 40.69  
 
ELP-9   08/28/2023 5280ft TURF FIRM Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
:244 :491 1:131 1:251   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ZIGGZAPPA 1 5 7 9 9 61¾ (forster t)GRAHAM J 124 10.00 17.45  
OKAY FINE 6 6 8 8 7 82¾ (lynch brian )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 2.50 33% 2.00 0.84 P
13  SPRING LILACS 9 8 6 6 4 43 3¾ (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 29% 2.50 7.54 S
WITCH OF NOVEMBER 3 2 12 1½ 1nk 1½ 41 (cano munoz)CHUAN MARTIN 118 12.00 17% 4.90 25.94  
WORDS OF PRAISE 2 1 22 4 5 2½ 5(maker j)GARCIA MARTIN 118 10.00 5% 19.00 4.66  
11  MIKITA 8 9 96 52 6 53 6(foley greg)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 10.88  
10  ENGLISH CHARM 7 3 5 3½ 2nk 37(wilkes r)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00 8.46  
CALLAS 5 7 4 7 8 78(mott riley)TORRES A 118 10.00 12.17  
SOULFUL TARA 4 4 32 2½ 31 99(miller f)COURT K 118 30.00 53.18  
SCR  BIRDIE ROSE               (blair jordan)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 8.00    
SCR  BOLTS BABE               (hartman chris)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00    
SCR  FIRST HILL               (medina robert)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00    
SCR  GRAY VIXEN               (ewing ann)LANERIE J 118 30.00    
SCR  SALSALITA VERDE               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
SCR  SHA GIRL               (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 124 8.00    
SCR  TIZ ERIN               (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.