Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Monday - August 28, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/5)-(3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/5)-(5/4/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/5)-(5/4/7/8)-(3/6/5/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-2   WIN (5/4/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/7/8)-(5/4/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/7/8)-(5/4/7/8)-(5/4/7/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/7/8)-(3/6/5/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/4/7/8)-(3/6/5/8)-(8/6/2/5) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ELP-3   WIN (3/6/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/5/8)-(3/6/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/5/8)-(3/6/5/8)-(3/6/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/5/8)-(8/6/2/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/6/5/8)-(8/6/2/5)-(6/5/11/9) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ELP-4   WIN (8/6/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/2/5)-(8/6/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/2/5)-(8/6/2/5)-(8/6/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/6/2/5)-(6/5/11/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/6/2/5)-(6/5/11/9)-(2/6/9/11/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-5   WIN (6/5/11/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/11/9)-(6/5/11/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/5/11/9)-(6/5/11/9)-(6/5/11/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/5/11/9)-(2/6/9/11/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/5/11/9)-(2/6/9/11/3)-(9/4/5) 60 $1.00 $180 
ELP-6   WIN (2/6/9/11/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3)-(2/6/9/11/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/6/9/11/3)-(9/4/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/6/9/11/3)-(9/4/5)-(2/5/3/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-7   WIN (9/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/4/5)-(9/4/7/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (9/4/5)-(9/4/7/5)-(9/4/7/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (9/4/5)-(2/5/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/4/5)-(2/5/3/6)-(9/13/6/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-8   WIN (2/5/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/3/6)-(2/5/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/3/6)-(2/5/3/6)-(2/5/3/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/3/6)-(9/13/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
ELP-9   WIN (9/13/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/13/6/5)-(9/13/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/13/6/5)-(9/13/6/5)-(9/13/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/28/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIJACK THE PARTY         (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00    
2  RATE CONFIRMATION Jul22 Jun16 May03 Mar24 Mar11 (foley greg)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 25% 3.10    
3  FOREVER COOL Jul30 Jul02 Jun04 May03 Apr14 (scherer marianne)BEJARANO R 124 3.00 29% 2.50    
SCR  PINFIRE Jan21 Dec16 Nov26     (tomlinson michael )GRAHAM J 119 5.00    
5  GILDED CRAKEN Jul30 May14 Apr22     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 6.00 11% 8.30    
6  COMMANDER REX Feb10 Jan22 Dec16 Nov19   (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
7  SHARP STICK Jun29 Jun14 May28 Apr15 Mar25 (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
8  MO MOVES Aug06 May18 Mar23 Feb25 Jan20 (medina robert)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
 
ELP-2   08/28/2023 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAST GAL Jul16 Jul02 Jun11 May18 May02 (porter michael)COURT K 118 15.00    
2  MORE THAN GLORY Jul15 Jun08 May03 Apr01 Feb26 (walsh brendan )ELLIOTT JANE 118 6.00    
3  CLOUDY BAY Jul22 Jun30 May29 Apr27 Mar12 (davis christ)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 5.00    
4  CHARLEY RUDE Aug12 Jul16 May03 Mar11 Feb08 (cano muno)CHUAN MARTIN 123 3.50 10% 8.70    
5  ECONOMIC HANGOVER Mar26 Feb16 Dec26 Nov13 Sep13 (diodoro r)TORRES A 123 3.50 58% 0.70    
6  MISCHIEVOUS GAL Aug12 Jul08 Apr23 Mar18 Feb16 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00    
7  HAMMERDONHAPPINESS Jul16 Jun30 Jun11 May19 Mar05 (contrera)RODRIGUEZ A 113 8.00 9% 10.50    
8  MY BLUE VALENTINE Aug01 Jun23 May14     (hill f)BEJARANO R 125 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-3   08/28/2023 4290ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($15K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  L. A. STAR Jul30 Jul14 Jun24 Jun09 Dec08 (lucas t )RODRIGUEZ A 117 15.00    
2  FOREVER HOME Jul30 Jul07 Jun14 May04 Mar24 (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 122 8.00    
3  HASHTAG WINNER Aug12 Jul31 Jun23 May27 Apr22 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 124 2.00 56% 0.80    
4  DUPLICITOUS Jul30 Jul09 May28 May10 Apr08 (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 4.00    
5  SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI Jul31 Jun23 May26 May11 Apr12 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
6  CHARGE ACCOUNT Jul27 Jun17 May21 Mar10 Feb17 (gutierrez)TORRES A 122 4.00 14% 6.20    
7  JERSEY GOLD Jul31 Jul08 Jun18 May30 May14 (nesbitt a)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 12.00    
8  CHOCTAW BINGO Jun06 May06 Apr12 Sep12 Aug16 (stinson willi)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-4   08/28/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CALL AGAIN May28         (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 2.50    
  (by ARROGATE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  FLASHY LASS Aug01         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of OPEN HOUSE by DEPUTY MINISTER)
3  FLIRTING GIRL Aug04 Jun10 Apr29 Apr07 Oct02 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 12.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of HOUSE OF DANZING by CHESTER HOUSE)
4  MADLY DANCING Aug03 Jan21 Dec09     (ortiz al)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
  (by CURLIN out of TAMBOZ by TAPIT)
5  HEART HEADED WOMAN Jul15 Jun11 May05 Apr12   (drury thoma)PETERSON FERRIN 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of BRILLIANT BLAZE by SEEKING THE GOLD)
6  VELOCHEETAH May29         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 31% 2.30    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of WEIGHT NO MORE by PURE PRIZE)
7  OVERINDULGENCE Jul23 Jun11       (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of CONQUEST RAMPAGE by QUALITY ROAD)
8  EXCELLENT QUESTION Jul15 Jun10 May05 Sep23 Aug07 (walsh p)BEJARANO R 118 3.00 43% 1.30    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SWEET SUE by DESERT CLASSIC)
 
ELP-5   08/28/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SAKURA SKY         (walden w)RODRIGUEZ A 114 30.00    
  (by YOSHIDA out of COOL SKY by SKY MESA)
2  WONDER WAVE (IRE) Jul16         (lynch a)BEJARANO R null      
  (by U S NAVY FLAG out of AWOHAAM by IFFRAAJ (GB))
3  PLEASINGLY         (moquett ronal)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of AS I PLEASE by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
SCR  RAINY NIGHT         (lynch bria)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of SUMPTUOUS by HENNESSY)
5  STANDOUTSENSATION Aug01         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.00 33% 2.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of AMAZE ME GRACE by EXPLODENT)
6  CANDI GIRL Jul11         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 41% 1.50    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of FIESTA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
7  BIG DREAMER         (mott rile)TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of MIND ERASER by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
8  MISS PEARL HART Aug04         (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of REUNION by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
9  LIVI ME DREAMING         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of LIVI MAKENZIE by MACHO UNO)
10  RUN RUN RABBIT         (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 119 30.00    
  (by BROKEN VOW out of OCEAN ROAD by WAR FRONT)
11  TIPSY RUNNER Aug04         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 6% 15.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of STAND BACK by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
 
ELP-6   08/28/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARMY OFFICER         (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 119 8.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of WORTH A CHANCE MO by UNCLE MO)
2  GENEROUS TIPPER Aug05 Jul14       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 39% 1.60    
  (by STREET SENSE out of STOPSHOPPINGDEBBIE by CURLIN)
3  GREERS FERRY Jul23         (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of DEE DEE BERTIE by BLUEGRASS CAT)
4  ASPIRING COMEDIAN         (pletcher a)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of AFLEET LOVER by NORTHERN AFLEET)
SCR  DUTCH MILLS Jul21         (ortiz alexa)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of DUTCH PARROT by ESKENDEREYA)
6  DYNAMIS (IRE)         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 2.50 19% 4.20    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of GOFORITMRSMILLER by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
7  BENVOLIO         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00    
  (by TAPIT out of MOLLY MORGAN by GHOSTZAPPER)
8  LOU'S LEGACY Jun01 May04 Apr13     (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 119 20.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of BIOGIO'S GIFT by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
9  NORTHERN FLAME Jul21         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 8.00 11% 8.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of DARLING'S DARLING by BERNARDINI)
10  GOTTA HAVE DREAMS Aug05         (hamilton sa)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 50.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of DREAM OF BERTIE by READY'S IMAGE)
11  PHREDDIE MAC Jul21 Jun15       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 12.00 7% 13.40    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FINANCIAL RECOVERY by STREET CRY (IRE))
SCR  RECORD TIME         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of DIVA'S RULE by ROMAN RULER)
 
ELP-7   08/28/2023 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIZ OF THEE Jul23 Jun10 Mar17 Feb09 Jan07 (hancock dana)MORALES EDGAR 122 30.00    
2  STOLEN BASE Jul30 Jul09 May19 Dec26 Nov27 (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00    
3  O P FIRECRACKER Jul23 Jun10 May28 Apr28 Nov19 (medina ro)TORRES A 122 20.00    
4  FOUNDER Jun30 May11 Mar25 Jan27 Dec28 (maker micha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 4.00 33% 2.00    
5  PUNCH HARD Jul14 Jun17 May19 Apr15   (beckman whitwo)BEJARANO R 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  MR. BIG NEWS Jul30 Jul01       (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 10.00    
7  F FIVE May13 Apr12 Dec23 Nov19   (lynch a)GRAHAM J 122 2.00 ★    
SCR  UNINVITED GUEST Jul02 May11 Apr23 Feb11 Jan15 (mcgee paul)LANERIE J 122 8.00    
9  KITTEN MISCHIEF Jul23 Apr27 Jan01 Dec14 Oct26 (thomas jon)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 39% 1.60    
 
ELP-8   08/28/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHIQUITA MOSCA Jul08 Jun21 Jun03 May12 Apr28 (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 113 30.00    
2  INSIGNIA Jul14 Jul29 Jun23 May01   (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 1.00 35% 1.80    
3  FOGO ISLAND Jul15 May27 Mar31     (lobo paul)TORRES A 120 3.50 12% 7.40    
4  KLOEPATRA Oct08 Sep10 Aug22 Aug01 Jul16 (puhich mike)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 25.00    
5  BORN DAPPER Dec10 Oct01 Aug13 Jul24 Jul02 (thomas jona)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00 22% 3.50    
6  KANTEX Jun23 May04 Apr22 Mar19   (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 122 15.00 5% 18.90    
7  MERCY WARREN Jul23 Jun30 Feb25 Jan01 Nov27 (o'connor rober)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00    
8  MY KENTUCKY GIRL Aug06 Jun11 May13 Apr15 Mar16 (engler jeff)LANERIE J 122 10.00    
9  TAP DANCING LADY Jul19 May18 Apr01 Feb25 Jan28 (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 122 20.00    
 
ELP-9   08/28/2023 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FIRST HILL Aug24 Aug06 Jun08 May06 Apr20 (medina robert)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00    
SCR  BOLTS BABE Jul08 Jan11 Nov13 Oct09 Oct02 (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00    
SCR  BIRDIE ROSE Aug26 Aug01 Jul08 May02 Sep24 (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 8.00    
4  ZIGGZAPPA Jul31 Mar24 Mar05 Feb11   (forster t)GRAHAM J 124 10.00    
5  WORDS OF PRAISE Aug01 Jun23 May20 Nov06 Oct16 (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  WITCH OF NOVEMBER Aug11 Jun15 May19 Apr01 Mar15 (cano muno)CHUAN MARTIN 118 12.00 17% 4.90    
7  SOULFUL TARA Jul31 May26       (miller f)COURT K 118 30.00    
8  CALLAS Jun25         (mott rile)TORRES A 118 10.00    
9  OKAY FINE Jul31 May13 Apr19 Feb12 Jan05 (lynch bria)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 2.50 33% 2.00    
10  ENGLISH CHARM Jul31 Jun23 Nov16     (wilkes r)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00    
11  MIKITA Jun22 Jan28       (foley greg)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
SCR  GRAY VIXEN Aug01 Jul08 Jun17 Nov24 Nov10 (ewing a)LANERIE J 118 30.00    
13  SPRING LILACS Jun29 May18 Feb23 Jan11   (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 29% 2.50    
SCR  TIZ ERIN Oct04 Sep09       (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00    
SCR  SALSALITA VERDE Aug04 Jun30 Jun08 Mar24 Mar02 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
SCR  SHA GIRL Oct15 Sep05 Jul29 May26   (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 124 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.