Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - October 01, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-4   TRI (6/4/10/9)-(6/4/10/9)-(6/4/10/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00  6-10-4 $24.61 $12.61 105%
CD-5   WIN (9/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00  9 $6.66 $0.66 11%
CD-6   DD (9/4/5)-(7/3/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00  9-7 $12.52 $0.52 4%
CD-7   EXA (5/2)-(5/7/2/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00  5-3 $15.06 $3.06 26%
    TRI (5/2)-(5/7/2/3)-(5/7/2/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00  5-3-7 $14.33 $8.33 139%
    SFT (5/2)-(5/7/2/3)-(5/7/2/3)-(5/7/2/3) 12 $0.10 $1.20  5-3-7-2 $19.08 $17.88 1490%
    PK3 (9/4/5)-(7/3/6/1)-(5/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00  9-7-5 $14.14 $2.14 18%
CD-8   WIN (6/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00  6 $6.44 $2.44 61%
    EXA (6/5)-(6/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00  6-5 $11.68 $7.68 192%
    DD (5/2)-(6/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00  5-6 $5.95 $1.95 49%
    PK3 (7/3/6/1)-(5/2)-(6/5) 16 $0.50 $8.00  7-5-6 $11.41 $3.41 43%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   10/01/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:241 :483 1:134 1:383   1:444   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  BEST PERFORMER 2 1 31½ 32 31½ 2nk 1½ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 13% 6.90 1.87 W
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of KINSLEY by PULPIT)
7  SPARTAN QUEEN 6 3 41½ 43½ 41½ 1nk 2½ (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 11.26  
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of TULSA QUEEN by CACTUS RIDGE)
10  EXCELLENT QUESTION 8 7 95¼ 98½ 76¾ 55½ 36½ (walsh bre)TORRES A 120 5.00 35% 1.90 5.55 S
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SWEET SUE by DESERT CLASSIC)
14  TOFFEE 12 6 11 11½ 11 32½ 47 (cangemi daniel)MACHADO LUAN 124 8.00 10.57  
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of IZARRA by DISTORTED HUMOR)
11  COLETTE'S JOY 9 11 117¼ 1110½ 98¾ 78½ 510 (d'amato p)LEPAROUX R 120 8.00 ★ 7.33  
  (by CONNECT out of SOLE PROPRIETOR by BINALONG)
3  BLUE TOPAZ 3 5 106¾ 1010 1110¾ 88¾ 610¼ (flenner andr)RAMOS D 120 20.00 5% 19.00 42.25  
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CAROLINE COUNTY by TAPIZAR)
12  LADY EMILY KATHRYN 10 9 21 21½ 21 45 711¾ (joseph saffi)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.50 30% 2.30 2.92  
  (by FROSTED out of OUR LADY KATHERN by HARD SPUN)
13  QUEEN RHAENYRA 11 10 73¾ 87½ 66½ 98¾ 813½ (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 115 12.00 29.36  
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of BETTY DRAPER by STREET CRY)
1  TAPITARA 1 2 53 55 54½ 67½ 913½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 15.00 41.28  
  (by TAPIT out of TARA COURT by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
4  MILAN MISCHIEF 4 12 128¼ 1211½ 1211¾ 1011¾ 1015 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 120 20.00 19.73  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of PAY ATTENTION by TAKE ME OUT (IRE))
6  LIPOCHROME 5 4 85¼ 77½ 1010¼ 1112 1117 (torres co)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 124 15.00 46.35  
  (by MOHAYMEN out of CANARY DIAMOND by ALPHABET SOUP)
8  HAMO 7 8 63¼ 65½ 87¼ 1216½ 1224¾ (vaughan edwa)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 12.00 47.42  
  (by UNION RAGS out of MISS CATOMINE by BERNARDINI)
SCR  HURRY UP HANNAH               (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 120 10.00    
  (by JACK MILTON out of MALIBU SONG by POWER BROKER)
SCR  LADY CLAYPOOLE (IRE)               (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.00    
  (by STARSPANGLEDBANNER out of SHORT AFFAIR by SINGSPIEL (IRE))
 
CD-2   10/01/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:24 :484 1:142 1:384   1:451   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OVERINDULGENCE 1 4 11½ 11 11½ 12½ 14¾ (casse no)SANTANA JR 120 1.60 26% 2.90 0.71 W
4  TRIBEST (ARG) 4 3 43 42 41¾ 22½ 24¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.00 36% 1.80 4.19 P
2  MISS ANALYZED 2 1 32½ 31½ 21½ 35 37½ (jones la)MICHEL MICKAELLE 120 4.50 4.84  
6  JAYLA 6 2 21½ 21 31½ 48 413½ (wittek karyn)ELLIOTT JANE 120 5.00 18.02  
5  BEAUTIFUL MANDATE 5 6 64½ 63½ 68¼ 614½ 521¼ (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00 4.77  
3  MIDNIGHT WALTZ 3 5 54½ 53 55¾ 512½ 622½ (leonard georg)MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00 12% 7.20 23.30  
 
CD-3   10/01/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:232 :473 1:122     1:243   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  J T'S IMAGINATION 2 3 31½ 41¾   12½ 14¾ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 5.22  
1  TAYSOM 1 6 65½ 63¾   22½ 24¾ (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00 16% 5.10 3.34 P
4  QUEBRANCHO 4 2 2½ 2nk   32½ 37½ (gutierrez)TORRES A 119 5.00 3.52  
5  MY BROTHER CHARLIE 5 5 53 31½   43 47½ (waltz brian)COURT K 119 4.00 50% 1.00 3.07  
8  LIQUOR TALK 6 1 42 51¾   66½ 511¾ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 3.50 10% 8.70 2.39  
3  SUMMER IN AIKEN 3 4 1½ 1nk   53½ 612½ (sharp jo)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 15.54  
SCR  QUANTUM               (gutierrez )CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
SCR  RACHMAN               (waltz brian)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00    
 
CD-4   10/01/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:23 :464 1:114 1:241   1:363   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  CATCHING FREEDOM 5 7 64¾ 62¾ 42 12 13¾ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 35% 1.80 1.16 W
  (by CONSTITUTION out of CATCH MY DRIFT by COUNT THE TIME)
10  CASH ONLY 9 3 1nk 1nk 1½ 22 23¾ (walden william)ACHARD ALEX 119 10.00 16% 5.30 4.90 P
  (by STREET SENSE out of YOU BOUGHT HER by GRAEME HALL)
4  PLANET 3 8 88 84¾ 64½ 55 35¾ (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 119 5.00 23% 3.30 6.53 S
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of STELLAR MOON by TAPIT)
5  CRUSADING 4 2 32 31 31½ 43½ 47 (asmussen )TORRES A 119 5.00 6.76  
  (by CURLIN out of BELLAVAIS by TAPIT)
2  PENROD 1 1 2nk 2nk 2½ 32 58½ (moquett )SANTANA JR 119 12.00 17.09  
  (by UPSTART out of PROUD PEARL by PROUD CITIZEN)
7  TIS CHARMING 6 6 75 73¾ 76½ 710½ 615½ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 9.32  
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of DERBY EVE by TIZNOW)
9  HIGH ENOUGH 8 9 911½ 98¾ 911 813 720 (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00 5% 19.00 39.15  
  (by HIGHTAIL out of LUMINOSO by QUALITY ROAD)
3  SPEEDTAIL 2 4 52¼ 41¼ 54 610 822½ (mason ingrid)ASHTON GAVIN 119 12.00 28.56  
  (by MASTERY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
8  BURGUNDY ROYALE 7 5 42¼ 51¾ 87 921 970¼ (lukas wayn)TORRES A 114 6.00 8.17  
  (by HIGHTAIL out of BURGUNDY ICE by STORM CAT)
SCR  RAGUEL               (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of ALLEGHENY ANGEL by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
CD-5   10/01/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:102     1:171   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  CHARGE ACCOUNT 6 3 42 31½   11 14 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 3.00 37% 1.70 2.33 W
8  EVERYOTHERWON 5 2 2½ 2nk   21 24 (lauer michael)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00 14.32  
10  APRIL'S NO FOOL 7 1 64½ 56½   43 34¼ (miller jero)PETERSON FERRIN 121 30.00 41.01  
5  FOREVER HOME 4 4 1½ 1nk   31½ 47¾ (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 121 3.50 12% 7.10 4.07  
4  ICY STARE DOWN 3 6 53 44   55½ 59 (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 25% 3.10 0.89  
3  LA TOURISTA 2 7 77 710¼   69 613 (vasquez sr)COURT K 121 15.00 13.92  
2  BEACH KITTEN 1 5 31½ 66¾   79 714¾ (miller jer)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 20.00 31.42  
SCR  DOCS SEVEN               (manley steve)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00    
SCR  PRIDDIS               (cano juan)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00    
SCR  SUNDAY GRACE               (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 114 12.00    
 
CD-6   10/01/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:23 :464 :59     1:051   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  HIDEKI 7 6 64½ 65½   44 1¼ (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 121 2.50 55% 0.80 2.15 W
6  DEVINE CHARGER 6 2 43 44   33 2¼ (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 12.00 7% 13.30 3.40 P
4  EMPIRE OF MY OWN 4 3 11½ 12   13 31 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00 6.98  
8  HURRICANE DEBBIE 8 8 53½ 54   54¼ 42¾ (ward wesl)TORRES A 118 8.00 ★ 13.44  
10  SWEET ALYSSA 10 7 96 76   66¾ 55 (pessin nei)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 9.24  
2  SHOPPINGFORPHAROAH 2 9 74½ 86¼   87 66½ (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 12.00 18.18  
3  MAGNILOQUENT 3 4 21½ 22   23 77 (ward a)LANERIE J 121 3.50 12% 7.20 6.61  
9  RUM RUNNER READY 9 1 107½ 108¾   98½ 88¾ (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 6.37  
5  STRAWBERRYLEMONADE 5 5 32 32½   76¾ 912 (castillo e)GRAHAM J 121 30.00 63.55  
1  MOON MAGIC CHRISSY 1 10 85½ 96¾   1010½ 1014½ (danner dou)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00 5% 19.00 23.28  
 
CD-7   10/01/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:224 :462 1:112 1:232   1:36   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  STRONGHOLD 5 3 42 21½ 1nk 1½ 11½ (d'amato phili)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 4.00 69% 0.50 0.55 W
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of SPECTATOR by JIMMY CREED)
3  RESILIENCE 3 2 32 51¾ 32 33 21½ (mott i)GRAHAM J 119 6.00 ★ 6.37 P
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MEADOWSWEET by SMART STRIKE)
7  TRACK PHANTOM 7 4 1½ 11½ 2nk 2½ 32½ (asmussen )TORRES A 119 6.00 ★ 10.89 S
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of MISS SUNSET by INTO MISCHIEF)
2  MO' SPRESSO 2 7 94¼ 72¾ 64¼ 45½ 46 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 5% 19.00 10.99  
  (by UNCLE MO out of ESPRESSO TIME by TAPIT)
4  HEY JOE JOE 4 5 63 62¼ 75¼ 68½ 513¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 16.02  
  (by CONSTITUTION out of PEACH BREW by MILWAUKEE BREW)
1  SEARCY 1 1 2½ 31½ 43 58 614 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00 7.74  
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of SWEET OFFER by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
10  ONE RED CENT 9 9 73¼ 83 54 710 715 (jazdzewski jon)AYALA ISAIAS 119 30.00 74.79  
  (by DOMINUS out of UNEVEN by EVEN THE SCORE)
6  QUIET RUSH 6 8 84¼ 94 88¾ 812½ 818 (arnold george )CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00 53.27  
  (by HIGHTAIL out of QUIET BUSINESS by QUIET AMERICAN)
9  COWBOY CODE 8 6 52½ 41¾ 910¾ 918½ 938½ (lukas wayn)TORRES A 114 6.00 15.67  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of NOT IN JEST by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  BLOWN COVER               (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SECRET NO MORE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  MARCUS GIFT               (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of FOUR GIFTS by EVEN THE SCORE)
 
CD-8   10/01/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($32K) Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:232 :47 1:104     1:172   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  TAP DANCE FEVER 4 3 31½ 2½   1½ 1¾ (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 2.50 40% 1.50 2.22 W
5  MEGAN'S CLARA 3 2 1nk 1½   2½ 2¾ (casse no)SANTANA JR 121 1.80 33% 2.00 0.84 P
1  ENCHANTED NILE 1 4 41¾ 42½   32½ 32 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 5.00 2.76  
2  A LOT OF SPUNK 2 1 2nk 32½   45 410¾ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 9.78  
SCR  FASHION RAGE               (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 3.00    
SCR  ROYAL BLOOD               (vaccarezz)TORRES A 118 12.00    
 
CD-9   10/01/2023 4950ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:224 :454 1:101 1:221   1:282   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  TRAFALGAR 3 7 76¼ 76¼   42½ 11¼ (hartman chris)LANERIE J 121 5.00 4.41  
7  STORMY PATTERN 7 3 2½ 2nk   11 21¼ (maker mi)SANTANA JR 121 12.00 10% 8.90 11.32 P
1  SHOOTERS SHOOT 1 4 51¾ 31½   21 33¼ (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 4.00 21% 3.70 3.45 S
4  GREENER PASTURES 4 2 41½ 42   32½ 46¼ (mccarthy m)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 11% 8.20 3.24  
5  WIND OF CHANGE (BRZ) 5 5 31½ 52¼   53½ 58¾ (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 121 3.00 24% 3.20 2.55  
6  TEXAS RED HOT 6 8 89¼ 88¼   76 68¾ (morse l)MACHADO LUAN 121 10.00 27.46  
8  BRESLAU 8 6 62¼ 62¼   65½ 714½ (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00 27.86  
2  HEARTBREAKER 2 1 1½ 1nk   87 824½ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 4.50 6.41  
 
CD-10   10/01/2023 7920ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
See original race card.
:252 :491 1:154 1:43 2:09 2:34   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  LOVED REIKO 7 119½ 1112¾ 52½ 12 12½ 12¼ (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 122 3.50 9% 10.00 1.92 W
12  VIVA LA RED 11 64½ 46½ 63 22 22½ 22¼ (biancone )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 15.00 37.87  
10  MODERN LOVE 9 97½ 1011¼ 105¼ 53½ 34 33¾ (wilkes r)TORRES A 113 15.00 5% 19.00 6.70 S
7  ROBIN SAGE 6 76 89¾ 94¾ 63½ 46½ 49¼ (medina robert)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00 7.00  
4  R ROSE' ALL DAY 3 54½ 56½ 42 43 57 513 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 23% 3.30 5.87  
5  LAVISH HABITS 4 86½ 68 73½ 74½ 69½ 613¾ (hiles a)LANERIE J 122 12.00 18.93  
9  TITUBA 8 44 78¼ 84½ 88 711 714½ (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 8.05  
6  AUTISM COMMUNITY 5 108 99¾ 115¼ 98½ 913 818¼ (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 4.50 4.71  
1  FACCIA BELLA 1 21½ 23½ 2½ 32½ 812 921¾ (claire alexis)GRAHAM J 118 15.00 8% 11.90 13.92  
2  J M VELA 2 33 36 32 109½ 1016 1028 (caramori ca)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00 41.50  
11  DAME JOVIALE 10 11½ 13½ 1½ 119¾ 1120 1134¾ (ennis john)MCENTEE GRACE 122 30.00 50.33  
SCR  SINGLE HER               (caramori c)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
SCR  WHENTHEDAWNBREAKS               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.00 37% 1.70    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.