Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Churchill Downs
Sunday - October 01, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CD-1   WIN (10/12/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/12/2/3)-(10/12/2/11/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/12/2/3)-(10/12/2/11/3)-(10/12/2/11/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/12/2/3)-(4/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/12/2/3)-(4/1/3)-(5/1/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/3)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/3)-(5/1/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3)-(5/1/8)-(6/4/10/9) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/8)-(5/1/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/8)-(5/1/8)-(5/1/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/8)-(6/4/10/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/1/8)-(6/4/10/9)-(9/4/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/4/10/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/10/9)-(6/4/10/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/10/9)-(6/4/10/9)-(6/4/10/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4/10/9)-(9/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/10/9)-(9/4/5)-(7/3/6/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (9/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/4/5)-(9/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/4/5)-(9/4/5)-(9/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (9/4/5)-(7/3/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/4/5)-(7/3/6/1)-(5/2) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-6   WIN (7/3/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/6/1)-(7/3/6/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/3/6/1)-(7/3/6/8/1)-(7/3/6/8/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/3/6/1)-(5/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/3/6/1)-(5/2)-(6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-7   WIN (5/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/2)-(5/7/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2)-(5/7/2/3)-(5/7/2/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (5/2)-(6/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (5/2)-(6/5)-(5/1/4/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/5)-(6/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/5)-(5/1/4/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/5)-(5/1/4/7)-(4/8/1/10) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-9   WIN (5/1/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/4/7)-(5/1/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/4/7)-(5/1/4/7)-(5/1/4/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/4/7)-(4/8/1/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-10   WIN (4/8/1/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/8/1/10)-(4/8/1/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/8/1/10)-(4/8/1/10)-(4/8/1/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CD-1   10/01/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAPITARA Sep02 Dec18       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 15.00    
  (by TAPIT out of TARA COURT by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
BEST PERFORMER Sep03 Jul15 Jun24 May03 Apr07 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 13% 6.90    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of KINSLEY by PULPIT)
BLUE TOPAZ Sep03 Jul22 Apr27 Mar31   (flenner andr)RAMOS D 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CAROLINE COUNTY by TAPIZAR)
MILAN MISCHIEF Apr01 Feb26       (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 120 20.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of PAY ATTENTION by TAKE ME OUT (IRE))
SCR  HURRY UP HANNAH Sep26 Aug29 Jun13 May14 Apr15 (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 120 10.00    
  (by JACK MILTON out of MALIBU SONG by POWER BROKER)
LIPOCHROME         (torres co)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 124 15.00    
  (by MOHAYMEN out of CANARY DIAMOND by ALPHABET SOUP)
SPARTAN QUEEN Jan21 Dec31       (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of TULSA QUEEN by CACTUS RIDGE)
HAMO Oct08         (vaughan edwa)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 12.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of MISS CATOMINE by BERNARDINI)
SCR  LADY CLAYPOOLE (IRE) Sep07 Aug12       (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.00    
  (by STARSPANGLEDBANNER out of SHORT AFFAIR by SINGSPIEL (IRE))
10  EXCELLENT QUESTION Aug28 Jul15 Jun10 May05 Sep23 (walsh bre)TORRES A 120 5.00 35% 1.90    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SWEET SUE by DESERT CLASSIC)
11  COLETTE'S JOY Aug31 Aug05 Jun04     (d'amato p)LEPAROUX R 120 8.00    
  (by CONNECT out of SOLE PROPRIETOR by BINALONG)
12  LADY EMILY KATHRYN Sep02 Mar26       (joseph saffi)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.50 30% 2.30    
  (by FROSTED out of OUR LADY KATHERN by HARD SPUN)
13  QUEEN RHAENYRA         (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 115 12.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of BETTY DRAPER by STREET CRY)
14  TOFFEE Sep02 May27 May13 Apr13 Feb25 (cangemi danie)GARCIA MARTIN 124 8.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of IZARRA by DISTORTED HUMOR)
 
CD-2   10/01/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OVERINDULGENCE Aug28 Jul23 Jun11     (casse no)SANTANA JR 120 1.60 26% 2.90    
MISS ANALYZED Jun03 May13 Feb24 Jan29   (jones la)MICHEL MICKAELLE 120 4.50    
MIDNIGHT WALTZ         (leonard georg)MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00 12% 7.20    
TRIBEST (ARG) Sep09 Aug09 Jul05 May24 May06 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.00 36% 1.80    
BEAUTIFUL MANDATE Sep03         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00    
JAYLA Sep02 Aug19 Mar09 Feb16 Jan20 (wittek karyn)ELLIOTT JANE 120 5.00    
 
CD-3   10/01/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAYSOM         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00 16% 5.10    
J T'S IMAGINATION Aug31 Jul31       (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00    
SUMMER IN AIKEN Sep10         (sharp jo)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
QUEBRANCHO Sep03         (gutierrez)TORRES A 119 5.00    
MY BROTHER CHARLIE Jul22         (waltz brian)COURT K 119 4.00 50% 1.00    
SCR  RACHMAN         (waltz brian)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00    
SCR  QUANTUM         (gutierrez )CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
LIQUOR TALK Aug12         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 3.50 10% 8.70    
 
CD-4   10/01/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RAGUEL Aug31         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of ALLEGHENY ANGEL by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
PENROD Aug11         (moquett )SANTANA JR 119 12.00    
  (by UPSTART out of PROUD PEARL by PROUD CITIZEN)
SPEEDTAIL Sep17         (mason ingrid)ASHTON GAVIN 119 12.00    
  (by MASTERY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
PLANET Sep05 Aug19       (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 119 5.00 23% 3.30    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of STELLAR MOON by TAPIT)
CRUSADING Sep03 Aug12       (asmussen )TORRES A 119 5.00    
  (by CURLIN out of BELLAVAIS by TAPIT)
CATCHING FREEDOM         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 35% 1.80    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of CATCH MY DRIFT by COUNT THE TIME)
TIS CHARMING         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of DERBY EVE by TIZNOW)
BURGUNDY ROYALE Aug27 Jul21       (lukas wayn)TORRES A 114 6.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of BURGUNDY ICE by STORM CAT)
HIGH ENOUGH         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of LUMINOSO by QUALITY ROAD)
10  CASH ONLY Aug30         (walden william)ACHARD ALEX 119 10.00 16% 5.30    
  (by STREET SENSE out of YOU BOUGHT HER by GRAEME HALL)
 
CD-5   10/01/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PRIDDIS Sep15 Aug12 Jul31 Jun25 Jun03 (cano juan)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00    
BEACH KITTEN Aug29 Aug10 Jul06 Jun16 May18 (miller jer)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 20.00    
LA TOURISTA Sep17 Aug12 Jul23 Jul07 Jun18 (vasquez sr)COURT K 121 15.00    
ICY STARE DOWN Jul28 Jul04 May04 Mar12 Feb20 (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 25% 3.10    
FOREVER HOME Aug28 Jul30 Jul07 Jun14 May04 (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 121 3.50 12% 7.10    
SCR  DOCS SEVEN May31 May14 Apr25 Apr09 Mar09 (manley steve)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00    
SCR  SUNDAY GRACE Sep18 Aug01 Jun23 May28 Sep13 (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 114 12.00    
EVERYOTHERWON Sep15 Aug23 Aug02 May11 Mar10 (lauer michael)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00    
CHARGE ACCOUNT Sep17 Aug28 Jul27 Jun17 May21 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 3.00 37% 1.70    
10  APRIL'S NO FOOL Jul27 Jul14 Jun23 Apr12 Aug03 (miller jero)PETERSON FERRIN 121 30.00    
 
CD-6   10/01/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MOON MAGIC CHRISSY Aug27 Jun01 May11 Apr14 Mar04 (danner dou)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SHOPPINGFORPHAROAH Nov20 Feb25 Jan30 Jan02   (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 12.00    
MAGNILOQUENT Aug11 Apr22 Jan15 Jul14 Apr22 (ward a)LANERIE J 121 3.50 12% 7.20    
EMPIRE OF MY OWN Aug27 Aug12 Jul16 Jun11 Apr08 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00    
STRAWBERRYLEMONADE Oct03 Sep14 Aug27 Jul27 Jun30 (castillo e)GRAHAM J 121 30.00    
DEVINE CHARGER Aug12 Jul16 May20 Sep09 Jul31 (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 12.00 7% 13.30    
HIDEKI Sep22 Jul16 Jun15 Apr20 Mar30 (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 121 2.50 55% 0.80    
HURRICANE DEBBIE Jan04 Nov05 Sep08 May05 Apr14 (ward wesl)TORRES A 118 8.00    
RUM RUNNER READY Jun17 May18 Apr16 Feb15 Dec29 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
10  SWEET ALYSSA Aug31 Jun15 Apr27 Mar25 Feb17 (pessin nei)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50    
 
CD-7   10/01/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SEARCY Aug27         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of SWEET OFFER by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
MO' SPRESSO         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of ESPRESSO TIME by TAPIT)
RESILIENCE Sep01         (mott i)GRAHAM J 119 6.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MEADOWSWEET by SMART STRIKE)
HEY JOE JOE Aug31 Aug12 Jun22     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of PEACH BREW by MILWAUKEE BREW)
STRONGHOLD Aug27         (d'amato phili)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 4.00 69% 0.50    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of SPECTATOR by JIMMY CREED)
QUIET RUSH Aug27 Jul30       (arnold george )CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of QUIET BUSINESS by QUIET AMERICAN)
TRACK PHANTOM         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of MISS SUNSET by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  MARCUS GIFT Jul27         (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of FOUR GIFTS by EVEN THE SCORE)
COWBOY CODE Jul21 Jun15       (lukas wayn)TORRES A 114 6.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of NOT IN JEST by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
10  ONE RED CENT Sep10 Aug27 Jul31 Jul15   (jazdzewski jon)AYALA ISAIAS 119 30.00    
  (by DOMINUS out of UNEVEN by EVEN THE SCORE)
SCR  BLOWN COVER         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SECRET NO MORE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
CD-8   10/01/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($32K) Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ENCHANTED NILE Jul14 May14 Apr07 Jan28 Jan13 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 5.00    
A LOT OF SPUNK Aug16 Jun29 Mar05 Jan26 Jan02 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00    
SCR  FASHION RAGE Aug06 Jul08 Jun09 Apr23 Mar09 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 3.00    
SCR  ROYAL BLOOD Jul31 Jul09 Jun02 May14 Apr23 (vaccarezz)TORRES A 118 12.00    
MEGAN'S CLARA Jul15 Jun03 Mar25 Feb26 May30 (casse no)SANTANA JR 121 1.80 33% 2.00    
TAP DANCE FEVER Jul23 May29 Apr29 Mar11 Feb18 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 2.50 40% 1.50    
 
CD-9   10/01/2023 4950ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHOOTERS SHOOT Aug13 Jul16 Jun15 Apr10 Mar05 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 4.00 21% 3.70    
HEARTBREAKER Jul23 Jun22 Jun02 May13 Apr12 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 4.50    
TRAFALGAR Sep14 Aug05 Jul01 May25 Apr22 (hartman chris)LANERIE J 121 5.00    
GREENER PASTURES Sep03 Aug04 Jul09 Jun04 May21 (mccarthy m)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 11% 8.20    
WIND OF CHANGE (BRZ) Aug13 Jun30 May14 Dec31 Nov12 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 121 3.00 24% 3.20    
TEXAS RED HOT May14 Apr16 Apr02 Mar12 Feb05 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 10.00    
STORMY PATTERN Aug24 Jul20 May20 Apr07 Mar03 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 121 12.00 10% 8.90    
BRESLAU Aug20 Jun27 May29 Apr22 Apr01 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00    
 
CD-10   10/01/2023 7920ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FACCIA BELLA Aug17 Jul27 Jul15 Jun22 Apr15 (claire alexis)GRAHAM J 118 15.00 8% 11.90    
J M VELA Sep10 Jul12 Jun07     (caramori ca)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00    
SCR  WHENTHEDAWNBREAKS Aug19 Oct13 Jun22 Apr28 Jan29 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.00 37% 1.70    
R ROSE' ALL DAY Sep03 Aug13 Jun18 May21 Feb23 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 23% 3.30    
LAVISH HABITS Aug19 Jul27 Jul05 Jun10 Mar05 (hiles a)LANERIE J 122 12.00    
AUTISM COMMUNITY Sep03 Aug01 Jun22 Apr21 Mar23 (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 4.50    
ROBIN SAGE Sep07 Aug13 Jul20 Jun29 May24 (medina robert)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00    
LOVED REIKO Sep10 Jul23 May18 Oct27 Oct07 (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 122 3.50 9% 10.00    
TITUBA Sep13 Jun29 Apr28 Mar12 Jan29 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00    
10  MODERN LOVE Aug25 Jul14 Mar08 Jan14 Nov20 (wilkes r)TORRES A 113 15.00 5% 19.00    
11  DAME JOVIALE Sep01 Aug01 Jan11 Dec21 Nov27 (ennis john)MCENTEE GRACE 122 30.00    
12  VIVA LA RED Sep01 Aug06 Jun18 May21 Apr30 (biancone )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 15.00    
SCR  SINGLE HER Sep07 Aug22 Jun07 Nov11 Oct20 (caramori c)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.