Handicappers' Race Results
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Saratoga
Saturday - July 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
SAR-1   Win (1/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $2.70 $2.70  
SAR-2   Win (2/1/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $8.00 $8.00  
SAR-3   Win (5/7/1/10/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 10 1 1 $48.80 $48.80 38.80
SAR-4   Win (5/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $17.60 $17.60 11.60
SAR-5   Win (8/5/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $5.60 $5.60  
SAR-6   Win (10/6/3/9/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 10 1 1 $7.60 $7.60  
SAR-7   Win (4/1/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $5.80 $5.80  
SAR-8   Win (8/10/3/7/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 10 1 1 $8.10 $8.10  
SAR-9   Win (8/2/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $6.50 $6.50  
SAR-10   Win (9/3/1/4/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 4 1 1 $94.00 $94.00 84.00
SAR-11   Win (2/4/3/1/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 1 1 1 $13.40 $13.40 3.40
Simulator Race results
 
SAR-1   07/15/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($136.5K) 2 ALL PT- 1:10
See original race card.
:221 :454 :581     1:044   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PIRATE 1 1 1nk 11   13½ 13 (pletcher a)ORTIZ JR 119 0.80 42% 1.40 0.35 W
2  JUST STEEL 2 3 32½ 21   23½ 23 (lukas wayne)ROSARIO JOEL 119 8.00 9.80  
4  SPECIAL ELEMENT 4 6 44½ 43½   37 37¼ (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 119 3.50 17% 4.90 8.30 S
6  SHERIFF JOE 6 5 511½ 57   412 414½ (maker j)FRANCO MANUEL 119 8.00 12.50  
5  ARTETA 5 2 2nk 31½   515 517¾ (weaver george)VELAZQUEZ R 119 4.00 5.90  
3  SAISIR LE JOUR 3 4 617½ 614   621 622 (romero rafael)CASTELLANO J 119 12.00 6% 14.60 20.20  
 
SAR-2   07/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:42
See original race card.
:213 :442 :572     1:11   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  TALKIN PHAROAH 5 1 45½ 43½   1nk 13¼ (rice linda)ORTIZ L 120 6.00 5% 19.00 3.00 W
1  WIN FOR GOLD 1 4 1nk 11½   2nk 23¼ (giangiulio michel)CARMOUCHE K 124 4.00 12% 7.50 3.05 P
2  SUGAR GRAY LEONARD 2 2 35 33   32 33¼ (dutrow e)SAEZ LUIS 122 1.80 51% 1.00 1.50 S
3  TOMMY GUN 3 3 57 59½   58½ 413½ (maker j)FRANCO MANUEL 124 8.00 11.00  
7  CHARLIE FIVE O 6 6 67¼ 610   69½ 516¼ (rodriguez ru)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00 10% 8.90 10.20  
4  EAST COAST GIRL 4 5 2nk 21½   46 616¾ (david carlos )ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 4.50 6.70  
SCR  ICEATUDE               (jacobson david)ORTIZ JR 124 5.00    
 
SAR-3   07/15/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($136.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:16
See original race card.
:243 :50 1:152 1:394   1:46   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  EPIC MISS JUSTICE 10 9 84¾ 73¼ 61¼ 31 1hd (breen j)ROSARIO JOEL 118 10.00 5% 19.00 23.40 W
3  WHY WASTE WORDS 3 5 74½ 83¾ 72¼ 54½ 2hd (bond jam)FRANCO MANUEL 118 30.00 45.75  
2  KING'S SECRET (GB) 2 1 42½ 51¾ 51¼ 42 3½ (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00 5% 19.00 9.00 S
11  BEST PERFORMER 11 10 2½ 1nk 1nk 11 4½ (sharp joe)CASTELLANO J 118 8.00 9.90  
8  NO DELI (IRE) 8 4 31½ 31 41 21 5¾ (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 10.00 14.90  
7  HEAVENLY APPOINTED 7 3 53 62¾ 82½ 65 62¾ (motion graham)VELAZQUEZ R 118 8.00 19% 4.20 6.50  
9  HOLA GATA 9 6 63 41½ 3½ 86 75¾ (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 10.00 11.10  
6  TACITURN 6 11 119¼ 116¾ 104½ 98½ 87¼ (brown c)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00 7.10  
1  ISOLA (IRE) 1 8 109¼ 106¾ 116½ 1010 910¼ (sisterson jack)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 11% 8.10 2.80  
5  VANISHED 5 2 1½ 2nk 2nk 75½ 1011 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 42% 1.40 3.65  
4  PARIS STYLE (FR) 4 7 96¾ 94¾ 93½ 1111 1112 (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00 15.20  
SCR  PARTY AT GRANTS               (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 5.00    
SCR  PORTAGE               (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 124 2.50    
 
SAR-4   07/15/2023 5940ft TURF RC14 FIRM Diana Purse ($500K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:46
See original race card.
:24 :48 1:114 1:353   1:482   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  WHITEBEAM (GB) 5 2 31½ 31½ 31 2nk 1hd (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 5.00 33% 2.00 7.80 W
2  IN ITALIAN (GB) 2 1 11½ 11 11 1nk 2hd (brown c)ORTIZ JR 124 0.40 0.35  
1  FEV ROVER (IRE) 1 3 21½ 21 21 31½ 3½ (casse mark)CASTELLANO J 122 12.00 7% 13.20 9.20 S
3  MARKETSEGMENTATION 3 5 46½ 46½ 44 43 45¾ (brown c)ORTIZ L 122 4.00 31% 2.30 6.70  
4  FLUFFY SOCKS 4 4 59 59½ 56½ 54½ 56¼ (brown c)ROSARIO JOEL 120 8.00 7.00  
 
SAR-5   07/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($95K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:224 :454 :573     1:101   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  MARIACHI 8 2 2nk 1½   11 12¾ (kimmel c)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 50% 1.00 1.80 W
1  ZEEBEAR 2 1 1nk 2½   21 22¾ (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 5.00 12.90  
7  G MUNNING 7 4 31 31½   42½ 33½ (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 124 5.00 10% 8.80 6.60 S
2  ALWAYS CHARMING 1 5 51¾ 42   32 45½ (klesaris robert)ORTIZ JR 122 4.00 3.05  
3  ON THE HILL 3 6 41¼ 55½   57 58¾ (bond james)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00 5% 19.00 11.00  
6  RED D G P 6 3 73¾ 77   610½ 610½ (ferraro james )CASTELLANO J 122 15.00 28.00  
5  AGILITY 5 8 63¼ 66½   711½ 713¾ (abreu r)DAVIS DYLAN 124 3.50 11% 8.50 4.20  
4  NINETEEN OYSTERS 4 7 811¾ 812½   818½ 823½ (summers chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 10.00 11.70  
SCR  NEWPORT BRIDGE               (rice linda)ORTIZ L 120 5.00    
 
SAR-6   07/15/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($95K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:52
See original race card.
:232 :481 1:131 1:25   1:372   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  SILVER SKILLET 9 2 21 22 2½ 1½ 1½ (clement christop)ROSARIO JOEL 120 3.50 28% 2.60 2.80 W
11  WATERVILLE 10 4 99½ 99½ 84¾ 64½ 2½ (clement christop)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 10.00 5% 19.00 11.20 P
3  KOSUKE 3 3 11 12 1½ 2½ 32¼ (bond ja)TORRES A 115 8.00 14% 6.10 5.60 S
8  LADY OF THOROTON 7 12 1218 1216 128¾ 116¾ 43¾ (englehart chris)DAVIS KATIE 123 20.00 35.50  
9  SNOWY EVENING 8 10 1114 1111 106¼ 105¾ 54 (donk david)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 9% 10.80 10.20  
5  GALLEY HEAD 4 5 32 33½ 41½ 33 64¼ (lerman s)DAVIS DYLAN 123 30.00 43.00  
7  LADY JASMINE 6 7 55 55½ 63¼ 74¾ 74¾ (donk david)VELAZQUEZ R 120 12.00 26.50  
6  SALS DREAM GIRL 5 8 88½ 89 95¼ 95¼ 84¾ (gargan danny)SAEZ LUIS 123 6.00 23% 3.40 5.40  
2  SOLIB 2 9 78 77 73¼ 54 96¼ (maker j)ORTIZ JR 125 4.00 3.00  
1  FROM HELLO 1 6 67 66½ 53 84¾ 106¾ (brown bruce )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00 25.25  
13  SARATOGA CHROME 12 11 1011½ 1010½ 117¾ 127¾ 117 (hiles jeff)SANTANA JR 125 20.00 38.75  
12  SWEETEST PRINCESS 11 1 42½ 43½ 31½ 44 1211½ (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 120 12.00 17.20  
SCR  APRIL ANTICS               (kantarmaci mertk)LEZCANO JOSE 123 8.00    
SCR  CANDY MONET               (persaud eddie)CASTELLANO J 123 30.00    
SCR  CHASING DAYLIGHT               (abreu r)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 8.00    
SCR  TIMELY CONQUEST               (hennig mark)VELAZQUEZ R 118 4.00    
 
SAR-7   07/15/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($156K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:26
See original race card.
:221 :454 :572     1:032   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PLAYLIST 1 2 31½ 41½   1½ 1¾ (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 122 2.00 27% 2.70 1.90 W
3  BOWL OF CHERRIES 3 5 53 54   3½ 2¾ (jacobson david)ORTIZ JR 126 6.00 5.60  
4  BREEZE EASY (GB) 4 6 74¼ 65½   51¾ 31¾ (clement christop)ROSARIO JOEL 122 1.80 31% 2.30 2.55 S
6  GLITTER UP 6 1 2½ 2nk   2½ 43¼ (hills a)DAVIS DYLAN 124 8.00 8% 10.90 8.50  
5  LADY MILAGRO 5 7 41½ 3½   41½ 57¼ (martin carlos )TORRES A 119 5.00 7% 13.70 5.60  
7  TRACY ANN'S LEGACY 7 4 63¼ 76½   77¾ 614 (orseno f)ORTIZ L 124 10.00 11.70  
2  BOMBDIGGITY 2 3 1½ 1nk   64¾ 716¼ (ward a)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00 11.40  
SCR  HYDRA               (rodriguez r)RIDER TBA 122 8.00    
SCR  QUICK MUNNY               (rice linda)ORTIZ L 124 3.50    
 
SAR-8   07/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($88K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:02
See original race card.
:224 :461 1:114     1:243   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  ICHIBAN 9 3 31 21   1nk 12½ (rice linda)ORTIZ L 119 4.00 21% 3.80 3.05 W
8  FOXY CARA 8 8 63½ 53   2nk 22½ (friedman mitch)CASTELLANO J 119 5.00 39% 1.60 6.90 P
5  BON ADIEU 5 1 52 63   44½ 39 (gargan danny)DAVIS KATIE 124 10.00 11.20  
11  MIM 10 4 42 42   32½ 49 (casse mark)DAVIS DYLAN 119 6.00 4.10  
6  ISLAND ROSE 6 7 96¼ 98   57 512¾ (baker charlton)ROSARIO JOEL 119 6.00 3.60  
3  KRYSTALHEIR 3 9 85¾ 87½   98¼ 619½ (coffey mar)DAVIS A 119 15.00 10% 8.60 25.00  
7  SWEET LIBERTY 7 2 1½ 11   67¼ 720¼ (quick patrick )TORRES A 114 8.00 7% 12.90 13.30  
4  MONTAUK MYSTIQUE 4 5 2½ 31½   87¾ 823¼ (miceli mic)SANTANA JR 119 20.00 25.00  
2  SHOTGUN PATSY 2 6 73¾ 73½   77¾ 923¾ (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 10.00 6.60  
1  EMBRACEABLE GAL 1 10 108¾ 1011   1011¾ 1025½ (hennig mark)VELAZQUEZ R 119 15.00 5% 19.00 19.00  
SCR  NEIGH JUDE               (breen j)ORTIZ JR 119 5.00    
 
SAR-9   07/15/2023 5280ft TURF RC12 FIRM Kelso Purse ($175K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:45
See original race card.
:232 :47 1:111 1:231   1:353   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  CASA CREED 7 5 64¾ 53 31½ 1½ 11 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.50 33% 2.00 2.25 W
2  ANNAPOLIS 2 4 54½ 63¼ 62¼ 42 21 (pletcher a)ORTIZ JR 124 1.60 29% 2.40 0.95 P
1  ENGLISH BEE 1 1 33½ 32 41½ 3½ 32¼ (motion graham)VELAZQUEZ R 118 20.00 5% 19.00 31.75 S
4  ICE CHOCOLAT (BRZ) 3 7 77¼ 74¾ 72¾ 52½ 42¼ (casse mark)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 20.00 21.90  
5  BIG EVEREST (GB) 4 2 11 11 1½ 2½ 53½ (clement christop)ROSARIO JOEL 120 5.00 6.50  
6  FILO DI ARIANNA (BRZ) 5 3 21 21 2½ 62¾ 65½ (casse mark)ORTIZ L 122 5.00 12% 7.30 10.80  
7  ANACONDA 6 6 43½ 42 52 74¾ 77¾ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 10.20  
SCR  GUN IT               (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 0.60    
SCR  MID DAY IMAGE               (jacobson david)GEROUX FLORENT 118 30.00    
 
SAR-10   07/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC12 FAST Sanford Purse ($175K) 2 ALL PT- 6:19
See original race card.
:221 :454 :583     1:114   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  YO YO CANDY 4 4 32 32   1½ 12¼ (velazquez daniel)CASTILLO A 120 15.00 5% 19.00 46.00 W
9  GOLD SWEEP 8 9 86 64¾   42 22¼ (asmussen steven )ORTIZ L 122 0.60 58% 0.70 0.35 P
3  DICKENS 3 3 1½ 2nk   3½ 33 (alvarado juan)ZAYAS J 120 8.00 9% 10.70 11.70 S
7  TRIPLE TREA 6 5 75 54½   52¼ 43¼ (minshall j)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00 12.40  
1  CALL THE CAVALRY 1 2 43 42½   62¾ 57½ (mcpeek kenneth )ORTIZ JR 120 8.00 6% 14.80 5.80  
10  MARKET STREET 9 7 2½ 1nk   2½ 68 (lukas wayn)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 12.00 5% 19.00 13.20  
2  JIVE 2 1 64½ 76¾   76¼ 79¼ (serpe philip )ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 12.00 52.00  
8  HIS RIGHTS 7 8 98 89¾   89¼ 811½ (romero rafael)CASTELLANO J 120 30.00 51.75  
6  RAMMING SPEED 5 6 53½ 914¾   924¼ 970 (rice kevin)MARTINEZ A 120 15.00 47.75  
SCR  FACTOR U AND ME IN               (coletti j)CARMOUCHE K 120 30.00    
 
SAR-11   07/15/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($136.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:52
See original race card.
:221 :46 :574     1:04   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONET NEVER (IRE) 6 6 72¾ 84½   52 1hd (antonacci philip)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 10.00 7% 12.70 5.70 W
8  CITY FEVER 8 8 83¾ 74   41½ 2hd (trombetta micha)ORTIZ JR 119 8.00 13.00  
11  AMERICAN KNOW HOW 11 5 52¼ 31   1nk 3.15 (morley thomas)CASTELLANO J 119 15.00 24.25  
3  CIGARETTE BOAT 2 2 11 1½   2nk 4¾ (maker j)FRANCO MANUEL 119 15.00 8% 10.90 17.40  
12  BAIE LONGUE 12 1 31 2½   3½ 54¼ (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 5.00 5.90  
7  PARTY WITH SMARTY 7 11 105 96   76 65¼ (gutierr)HERNANDEZ OMAR 112 50.00 5% 19.00 47.00  
2  BEER RUN 1 4 42 42½   65 76¾ (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 2.00 53% 0.90 1.45  
6  PAXSATIONAL 5 10 116 118   98 810 (barker r)DAVIS DYLAN 119 30.00 32.25  
10  METALLURGIC 10 9 62¾ 63   87 910 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00 12.50  
5  NICKEL NICKEL 4 7 94¾ 106½   108½ 1014¾ (gargan danny)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 14.40  
9  TWO MINUTES APART 9 12 127 129½   1213½ 1120 (crook-demasi kath)CARMOUCHE K 119 20.00 41.25  
4  FLAT TOP BOX 3 3 21 52½   1112½ 1223¾ (abreu r)ORTIZ L 119 4.50 11% 8.40 7.90  
SCR  ALEXIS ZORBA (GB)               (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 6.00    
SCR  LUDWIG               (bauer philip)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.80    
SCR  SCHNITTKER               (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.