Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Saturday - September 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (1/5/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $3.10 $3.10  
CD-2   Win (2/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 3 1 1 $5.48 $5.48 1.48
CD-3   Win (5/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $8.02  
CD-4   Win (3/2/5/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 4 1 0 $25.18  
CD-5   Win (12/8/10/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $8.58 $8.58 0.58
CD-6   Win (3/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $6.46 $6.46 0.46
CD-7   Win (5/6/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $4.84 $4.84  
CD-8   Win (7/11/9/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 1 $5.26 $5.26  
CD-9   Win (5/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $3.54 $3.54  
CD-10   Win (9/4/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 0 $18.32  
CD-11   Win (6/8/11/2/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 1 $17.72 $17.72 7.72
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   09/30/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:241 :481 1:123 1:372   1:433   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAJOR FED 1 3 31½ 31 31½ 12½ 16½ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 28% 2.60 0.55 W
2  THE HONORABLE ONE 2 5 41½ 41¼ 42 54 26½ (engler jeff)NAVA-MARIN JOSE 122 12.00 30.84  
3  COUSIN LARRY 3 2 63½ 63¼ 64 44 37¼ (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00 19.22  
5  SHORTLIST 5 8 75 73¾ 74½ 64¼ 48¼ (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 122 6.00 26% 2.90 7.64  
4  TREASURY 4 1 11 11 1nk 22½ 510½ (forster t)GRAHAM J 122 5.00 12% 7.50 5.68  
8  COOL RAGS 8 7 52½ 52¼ 52½ 76¼ 610¾ (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 122 4.50 11% 7.80 9.37  
6  BOISE 6 4 21 21 2nk 33½ 711¾ (habeeb j)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 20.00 22.48  
7  WHAT A COUNTRY 7 6 86½ 87¾ 88½ 810¾ 820¼ (shirer mat)SANTANA JR 122 8.00 11.01  
 
CD-2   09/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:17
See original race card.
:213 :451 :574     1:112   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  SPARKLE OF HOPE 3 2 31½ 31   2½ 1¾ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 20% 4.00 1.74 W
1  MAGNA MASSA 1 1 11 21   32 2¾ (irion heathe)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 3.29  
2  PILLBOX 2 4 21 11   1½ 3¾ (joseph saffie )GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.00 51% 1.00 1.96 S
6  MOTOWN MIKA 5 5 53 43   42½ 41 (o'connor robert)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00 14.35  
4  HARMONICA 4 3 43 57½   59½ 518¾ (drury jr)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 3.68  
SCR  DEAR LADY               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 1.80    
SCR  TERRANOVA               (williamson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00    
 
CD-3   09/30/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:47
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:11 1:364   1:431   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  UNINVITED GUEST 1 7 711 712½ 64¼ 2nk 1nk (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 8.00 3.01  
4  TRES SOLES 2 1 59½ 511 54 1nk 2nk (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 7% 13.30 5.09 P
8  COASTAL DEFENSE 6 6 45 46 31 33 310¾ (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 122 5.00 18% 4.70 6.57 S
6  DOCTOR NASH 4 3 34½ 35½ 42 65¼ 411 (tomlinson mi)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 8.00 7.51  
7  TAKE THE CHARGE 5 4 13 14½ 11 43½ 511 (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00 9.41  
9  NULLARBOR 7 5 23 24½ 21 55 611¼ (manley stev)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 6.00 16.15  
5  TEPEU 3 2 610½ 611½ 77¼ 77¾ 713½ (walsh bren)SANTANA JR 122 3.00 50% 1.00 1.53  
SCR  G T FIVE HUNDRED               (mason ingrid)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
SCR  ROYAL ACT               (diodoro rob)TORRES A 122 4.00    
 
CD-4   09/30/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 2:17
See original race card.
:234 :492 1:143 1:27   1:40   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  WOODCOURT 4 3 43½ 43½ 43½ 41½ 1½ (walsh brend)TORRES A 120 5.00 11.59  
6  LEGAL TITAN 6 2 32 32½ 32 3½ 2½ (ewing a)CANNON DECLAN 122 5.00 8.72  
3  COPPER MISSILE 3 8 87¾ 75½ 55 53½ 32 (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 3.50 33% 2.00 0.98 S
2  VALUE ENGINEER 2 1 2nk 21 1nk 1nk 42 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 117 3.00 19% 4.20 3.57  
9  STEELER MISCHIEF 9 5 1nk 11 2nk 2nk 52¼ (gutierrez fa)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00 9% 10.20 13.32  
8  SAVE THE KING 8 9 77¼ 87 76½ 64 64½ (davis christopher)GRAHAM J 122 15.00 24.92  
5  HAM SANDWICH 5 4 56 65½ 86¾ 76½ 77½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00 16% 5.10 8.58  
1  STRIKING SPARKS 1 6 66¼ 55 65½ 89½ 815¼ (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 120 15.00 32.73  
7  DUMBSTRUCK 7 7 99¾ 97½ 910¼ 913 922¼ (wilson sha)SANTANA JR 122 8.00 14.23  
SCR  THE PROCESS               (devaux cher)TORRES A 120 2.00    
 
CD-5   09/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:48
See original race card.
:23 :461 1:112 1:241   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  PURSUIT OF LIBERTY 8 6 2nk 21 1½ 11½ 13 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 23% 3.30 3.29 W
12  LADY MOSCATO 12 9 62¾ 42½ 31½ 21½ 23 (lukas wayne)TORRES A 114 3.00 50% 1.00 2.47 P
3  NORISKIT NOBISCUIT 3 3 42 31 42 32½ 35¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 9.12  
2  CALLE REINA 2 10 119¼ 97¼ 87 76½ 49 (beckman whitwo)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 44.03  
10  MY FAVORITE GIRL 10 8 3½ 64½ 54½ 66 59½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 7% 13.70 3.59  
9  MURPHY'S GIFT 9 7 52¼ 53½ 64½ 56 610¼ (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00 10.32  
4  SPEAK UP 4 1 73¾ 74¾ 76 87½ 711½ (arnold r)CHUAN MARTIN 119 20.00 67.65  
5  THORNY 5 2 83¾ 85¾ 97½ 99½ 811½ (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00 7.03  
7  STARINA 7 11 108¼ 1110¾ 109½ 109¾ 911¾ (catalano wa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00 ★ 26.25  
6  HONOR CAT 6 4 1nk 11 2½ 44½ 1012½ (diodoro rob)TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 19.00 22.13  
1  BUMP IN THE NIGHT 1 5 97¼ 107¾ 1110 1112¾ 1119¾ (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 119 15.00 28.24  
11  PRETTY GIRLS UNION 11 12 1210¾ 1212¼ 1216 1221¼ 1236¼ (leonard george )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 30.00 82.66  
 
CD-6   09/30/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:21
See original race card.
:233 :472 1:114 1:364   1:433   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  FIGHTERTOWN 3 2 2nk 21 11 11 1hd (amoss m)GILLIGAN JACK 118 3.00 34% 2.00 2.23 W
7  SINGLE RULER 7 6 54¼ 53½ 31½ 21 2hd (delacruz mejia )MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 3.93  
6  CARNIVORE 6 5 32 41½ 41½ 33½ 34½ (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 17% 4.80 4.58 S
4  BUCKTOWN 4 3 42¼ 31 53 46 49¾ (west ethan )HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00 9.55  
1  IMPULSIVENESS 1 7 78¼ 76½ 79½ 710 511½ (irion heathe)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00 10.52  
2  LAST COOKIE 2 1 64¼ 64 67 69½ 612½ (urieta johanna)TORRES A 113 15.00 13.03  
5  LOVE SPELL 5 4 1nk 11 21 56½ 714 (joseph saffi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 19% 4.20 2.72  
SCR  TIMELY PROSPECT               (mckeever andrew)CANNON DECLAN 122 6.00    
 
CD-7   09/30/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:53
See original race card.
:222 :45 1:094     1:163   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  YOUR SO SILLEA 3 2 1½ 1½   12½ 11 (sims philip )LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 3.50 41% 1.40 1.42 W
8  KANTEX 6 5 74¼ 55   43½ 21 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 12.00 7% 12.40 8.84 P
7  LEELOO 5 6 52½ 43   22½ 32 (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 10.00 8% 11.00 9.09 S
6  ALTERED SHOT 4 1 31 31½   33 45¼ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 15% 5.80 4.54  
3  MY KENTUCKY GIRL 2 7 2½ 2½   55 58½ (engler jeff)NAVA-MARIN JOSE 121 15.00 16.30  
9  FOUR DAWN 7 9 84¾ 77   67½ 611 (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 123 6.00 5.50  
10  FAST AND FEMININE 8 8 95¾ 910   810 711 (snipes randy)STEVENS C 116 20.00 45.76  
2  ROCK STAR PARKING 1 3 62¾ 66   79 817¼ (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 8.00 8.88  
11  MERCY WARREN 9 4 42½ 87½   918 935 (o'connor robert )MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00 10.78  
SCR  MEGAN'S CLARA               (casse norm)SANTANA JR 121 4.00    
SCR  SLACK TIDE               (forster t)MORALES EDGAR 121 30.00    
 
CD-8   09/30/2023 5280ft TURF RC11 FIRM Jefferson Cup Purse ($200K) 3 ALL PT- 4:25
See original race card.
:234 :474 1:12 1:243   1:363   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  MORE THAN LOOKS 7 8 810 811½ 79 32½ 12¾ (devaux cher)TORRES A 120 2.50 53% 0.90 1.63 W
6  SMOKEY MANDATE 6 4 32 22½ 22½ 12 22¾ (maker j)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 5% 19.00 8.32 P
3  WORTHINGTON 3 6 78½ 710½ 89 65¼ 36¼ (maker micha)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00 25.94  
1  OCEAN POINTE 1 9 910½ 912½ 911 77¾ 47½ (estvanko richa)RAMOS D 118 6.00 6.05  
4  NOISES OFF 4 2 56 57½ 57½ 55 57½ (lobo h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 3.68  
9  OCEAN VISION (IRE) 8 5 43½ 45 35½ 45 68¾ (delgado gusta)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00 6% 14.70 5.92  
11  GASLIGHT DANCER 9 3 1½ 12½ 12½ 22 710¾ (maker michael )TORRES A 118 6.00 15% 5.70 5.69  
2  TIVERTON (GB) 2 7 67½ 69 68 89¼ 817¼ (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00 35.59  
5  MIDNIGHT WEST 5 1 2½ 32½ 47 910¼ 921¾ (medina tomas)MOJICA O 118 30.00 82.23  
SCR  DESERT DUKE               (hartman chris)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
SCR  ENDPOINT               (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 30.00    
 
CD-9   09/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC12 FAST Ack Ack Purse ($400K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:58
See original race card.
:233 :471 1:112 1:231   1:352   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  ZOZOS 5 1 1½ 1½ 1nk 12 11 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 1.20 48% 1.10 0.77 W
4  STAGE RAIDER 4 2 31 31½ 31½ 22 21 (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00 8% 12.20 6.70 P
3  THREE TECHNIQUE 3 6 62½ 63¼ 63¼ 33 32 (cook b)BEJARANO R 121 3.00 4.25  
2  O BESOS 2 3 51½ 51¾ 41¾ 55 47¼ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 4.11  
7  CADDO RIVER 7 4 2½ 2½ 2nk 43½ 57½ (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00 24.25  
1  SEIZE THE NIGHT 1 5 73 73¼ 74¼ 65½ 69 (cunningham jade)COURT K 121 12.00 22.81  
6  SKYRO 6 7 41 41½ 52¼ 78½ 714¾ (lynch a)GRAHAM J 121 10.00 19% 4.20 18.91  
 
CD-10   09/30/2023 5940ft DIRT RC13 FAST Lukas Classic Purse ($500K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:29
See original race card.
:231 :463 1:104 1:36   1:484   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  CLAPTON 2 7 710½ 710½ 65½ 21½ 1nk (summers cha)TORRES A 123 6.00 8.16  
5  TRADEMARK 4 2 32 32½ 31½ 11½ 2nk (oliver victoria)GARCIA MARTIN 121 12.00 7.80  
6  BLUE DEVIL 5 4 58 58 54 31½ 3¾ (hiles jeff)SANTANA JR 121 20.00 14.63  
4  RATTLE N ROLL 3 6 610 610 76 55½ 45½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 123 1.40 22% 3.60 1.30  
1  HAPPY AMERICAN 1 8 816½ 820½ 821 813½ 58¾ (pessin l)GRAHAM J 123 8.00 9% 10.20 8.66  
9  AMERICANREVOLUTION 8 5 22 2½ 1nk 44 610 (pletcher tod)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 35% 1.90 2.47  
7  WHELEN SPRINGS 6 3 45½ 45 43 66 711½ (schultz lindsay)FERRER C 123 12.00 18.92  
8  FIVE STAR GENERAL 7 1 12 1½ 2nk 78½ 822½ (forster t)LANERIE J 121 15.00 10% 8.70 18.69  
SCR  WARRANT               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 8.00    
 
CD-11   09/30/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:01
See original race card.
:234 :491 1:143 1:392   1:454   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  BRIGADE COMMANDER 7 4 43 43 31½ 2½ 11¼ (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.50 6% 14.60 7.86 W
1  ATHENS MOON 1 1 11½ 11 11½ 1½ 21¼ (stall albert )GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 6.00 8.84  
10  MISSIONAIRE 10 9 75½ 96¼ 74¼ 53 32½ (diodoro rob)TORRES A 120 10.00 20.52  
12  NOW THAT ICAN ROCK 12 10 86 75 52¾ 32½ 43 (michael brian)MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00 34.22  
2  ROYAL SALUTE 2 5 54 64½ 62¾ 42½ 53½ (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 120 8.00 9% 10.00 12.24  
9  GIVEN TO FLY (IRE) 9 7 96½ 86 84½ 64 66½ (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 8.00 5.72  
3  ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN 3 12 129¾ 107¾ 116 88 78¼ (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00 31.82  
6  ELEGANT TRIP 6 6 64½ 54½ 94½ 98¼ 88¼ (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 120 4.00 27% 2.70 3.07  
4  HOGSLAYERS R I P 4 2 31½ 31½ 41¾ 77 910¾ (pessin neil )LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 15.00 17.32  
11  ROYAL SANDRIN 11 11 119½ 117¾ 106 108¾ 1010¾ (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 15.00 10% 8.90 7.09  
5  ORBI ONE 5 3 21½ 21 21½ 1110¾ 1117¾ (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 120 8.00 8.17  
8  METALLURGIC 8 8 108 128¼ 126¼ 1214¼ 1226¾ (maker michael )GEROUX FLORENT 120 5.00 25% 3.10 6.35  
SCR  AUDEN               (mott i)GRAHAM J 120 6.00    
SCR  PILKINGTON               (diodoro rob)TORRES A 120 15.00    
SCR  PROVISIONAL               (matejka pavel)BEJARANO R 120 20.00    
SCR  WE WILL CONQUER               (medina robert)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.