Handicappers' Race Results

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The Longshot Hunter!

Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 09, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CD-2   WIN (2/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00  2 $8.36 $2.36 39%
    EXA (2/6/3)-(2/6/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00  2-3 $37.76 $25.76 215%
CD-3   WIN (7/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00  7 $8.42 $2.42 40%
    DD (2/6/3)-(7/4/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00  2-7 $24.44 $15.44 172%
CD-7   WIN (2/3/9/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00  6 $42.28 $34.28 429%
    EXA (2/3/9/6)-(2/3/9/6) 12 $2.00 $24.00  6-2 $225.22 $201.22 838%
CD-8   WIN (1/5/6/10/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00  10 $13.28 $3.28 33%
    EXA (1/5/6/10/4)-(1/5/6/10/4) 20 $2.00 $40.00  10-1 $66.08 $26.08 65%
    DD (2/3/9/6)-(1/5/6/10/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00  6-10 $197.19 $177.19 886%
CD-9   PK3 (2/3/9/6)-(1/5/6/10/4)-(8/1/5/7/6) 100 $0.50 $50.00  6-10-5 $215.73 $165.73 331%

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/09/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:23 :47 1:124 1:394   1:463   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LE COOP 2 5 514½ 510 54 2nk 1 (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00 36.03  
GILDED CRAKEN 3 4 4 43 2nk 1nk 2 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 3.00 27% 2.70 1.26 P
MO MOVES 4 1 13 12 3½ 3½ 310¼ (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 5.24  
PEARSE 5 2 23 22 1nk 4 412½ (lobo paul)TORRES A 121 3.50 11% 8.30 2.84  
CASHMEUP 1 3 3 32 43 56 523¼ (cowans william )ACHARD ALEX 121 1.60 28% 2.50 2.09  
SCR  PHOTO OP               (hiles ric)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00    
 
CD-2   11/09/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:231 :463 1:114     1:183   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
YOLANDA WHO 1 5 11 2nk   3.2 1¼ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00 45% 1.20 3.18 W
SHIP IT 2 3 44 3   2nk 2¼ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 3.50 13% 6.40 7.29 P
SONADOR 3 2 21 1nk   1nk 3 (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 113 5.00 3.22  
DOGWOODSMILLIEJANE 6 6 6 5   4 4 (taylor brent)BEJARANO R 120 12.00 7.53  
SHOWGIRL LYNNE B 5 1 3 4   5 5 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 21% 3.70 1.20  
BEACH KITTEN 4 4 5 6   6 68 (miller jero)PETERSON FERRIN 120 15.00 21.36  
SCR  BUCKEYE ROSE               (drury jr)MCKEE J 118 5.00    
 
CD-3   11/09/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:251 :502 1:153 1:392   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KATTATH 6 1 11 11 1½ 12 1nk (schultz l)TORRES A 121 4.50 35% 1.90 3.21 W
CODE RUNNER 1 5 5 34 32 22 2nk (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00 6.12  
BOITANO 5 3 21 21 2½ 3 3 (forster t)LANERIE J 121 10.00 10% 9.10 9.25 S
SHORTLIST 3 6 65 66 6 5 4 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 5.00 32% 2.10 8.92  
COUSIN LARRY 2 2 33 4 42 4 5 (lovell miche)TORRES A 121 6.00 5.23  
HUGE BIGLY 4 4 44 5 5 6 6 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 2.00 1.09  
SCR  DREAM KEEPER               (cowans william )ACHARD ALEX 121 6.00    
 
CD-4   11/09/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:213 :452 :573     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OFFICER QUIGLEY 7 2 3 22   2 1¼ (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 12.00 9.70  
GUCCI BOY 3 3 6 65   34 2¼ (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.50 44% 1.30 3.33 P
LUNDBERG 1 4 1½ 12   1 3¼ (moquett e)BEJARANO R 124 2.50 1.70  
SMOKE WAGON 5 7 7 5   55 44 (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00 10% 9.20 8.39  
CITY OF LOVE 6 6 4 3   4 5 (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 122 6.00 10% 9.10 12.52  
STUDY COMMITTEE 8 5 53 7   710½ 613½ (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 6.00 5.34  
PASSING JUDGMENT 4 8 8 8   811 715¼ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00 6.66  
CLOUD WITHOUT REIN 2 1 2½ 4   69 819¼ (barnett bobb)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 12.00 6% 14.90 19.27  
SCR  HESS               (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00    
 
CD-5   11/09/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($141K) 3 ALL PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:232 :463 :583     1:051   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PRIVATE CREED 5 1 31 1nk   1 12 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.50 59% 0.70 2.15 W
BAL A KAZOO 3 3 2½ 3½   3 22 (gorham m)PEREZ E 120 5.00 8.93  
SON OF A BIRCH 6 6 6 6   45 3 (morley thoma)TORRES A 118 12.00 18.94  
CHISELER 2 2 1½ 2nk   2 4 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00 5% 19.00 13.77  
GASLIGHT DANCER 7 5 52 4   5 5 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 7% 12.80 1.43  
MOUNSIEUR COCO 4 7 7 7   68 6 (gutierrez)TORRES A 118 4.00 3.70  
MONEY RUN 1 4 42 5   7 714¼ (barnett c)BEJARANO R 118 20.00 18.02  
SCR  RYVIT               (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 1.20    
 
CD-6   11/09/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:23 :47 1:114     1:244   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HEART HEADED 7 3 1½ 1nk   13 1 (walden w)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 9.54  
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of LA MALAGUENA by DIABLO)
GENERAL ISSUE (FR) 4 2 86 7   3 2 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00 18.54  
  (by HARD SPUN out of MY GI GI by E DUBAI)
KING ANTHONY 8 7 62 6   6 3 (hernandez)TORRES A 119 10.00 17% 5.00 3.33 S
  (by TALE OF VERVE out of GEM GEM by TAPIT)
MIKEALICIOUS 1 5 31 4   55 4 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 6% 16.50 4.21  
  (by BLAME out of TATTERSAIL by TWIRLING CANDY)
10  BEAR RIVER 9 4 2½ 2nk   23 5 (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 1.80 37% 1.70 3.14  
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of SIXTYFIVENORTH by MIDSHIPMAN)
EL MATADOR 5 10 108 8   8 610 (mott riley)VELAZQUEZ R 119 8.00 6% 16.80 9.11  
  (by INCLUDE out of MINI CHANNEL by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
12  CHARGE THE CASTLE 11 6 4 3½   45 710 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 10.25  
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of CASTLESINAIR by STREET SENSE)
WICKED MELODY 3 11 1111½ 1111¾   9 810¾ (molloy thomas)GRAHAM J 119 12.00 12.65  
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of COREOPSIS by MR. INTEGRITY)
FORMAL AFFAIR 6 1 5 5   7 914¼ (trombetta )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 15% 5.60 7.69  
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of TOAST TO LOVE by CONGRATS)
11  MIDNIGHT STORMY 10 9 9 9   1014¼ 1020 (minnock wayne )MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00 78.51  
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of AVA G by AFTERNOON DEELITES)
BROADWAY RED 2 8 74 10   1115¾ 1126¼ (delo)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 30.00 70.53  
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of BROADWAY DINER by TAPIZAR)
SCR  SALMING               (caramori ca)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 5.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of READY TO TANGO by MORE THAN READY)
 
CD-7   11/09/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:222 :453 1:103     1:17   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PURE PANIC 6 2 32 32   2nk 1nk (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 121 10.00 5% 19.00 20.14 W
W W HOTSHOT 2 3 2nk 2nk   1nk 2nk (becker sc)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 44% 1.30 3.05 P
SOLIDIFY 1 8 5 5   3 3 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 114 5.00 5.18  
BLUE KENTUCKY 5 6 7 66   43 4 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.50 5.35  
LYKAN 4 5 8 89   7 53 (young te)SANTANA JR 121 20.00 25.83  
TILTED TOWERS 8 7 4 4   5 6 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 4.00 6% 16.90 4.20  
TEE BURNS 3 4 1nk 1nk   6 712¾ (hartman ch)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 26% 2.90 2.57  
LUCKY BOSS 7 1 6 7   8 823 (contreras)TORRES A 121 5.00 10.09  
SCR  FAITHFUL RULER               (watkins m)MCKEE J 121 15.00    
 
CD-8   11/09/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:233 :472 1:122 1:38   1:442   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  PARCHMENT PARTY 10 9 10 10 7 4 1 (mott i)GRAHAM J 122 4.00 8% 12.30 5.64 W
FIRST WORLD WAR 1 5 4 32 31 2½ 2 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 33% 2.00 2.82 P
LAGYNOS 2 2 2½ 4 42 1½ 3 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00 29.72  
CATCHING FREEDOM 5 7 7 76 6 5 4 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.50 25% 2.90 1.09  
FOOTPRINT 8 10 87 98 8 7 5 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00 16.48  
KHANATE 3 3 1½ 2nk 1nk 3½ 65 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 120 8.00 10.25  
WOODCOURT 7 4 5 64 5 6 711 (walsh bre)TORRES A 122 15.00 37.35  
MARKET STREET 9 6 9 8 9 9 816¾ (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 120 12.00 24.51  
BARKSDALE 4 8 6 1nk 2nk 8 927 (walden william)ACHARD ALEX 122 30.00 5% 19.00 41.69  
MOZLZIL 6 1 31 53 10 1014¾ 1040¾ (cox h)VELAZQUEZ R 122 6.00 14% 6.20 16.95  
 
CD-9   11/09/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:234 :493 1:151 1:403   1:53   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SPARTAN QUEEN 5 3 42 3 2½ 13 1 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 12% 7.40 0.88 W
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of TULSA QUEEN by CACTUS RIDGE)
LADY CLAYPOOLE (IRE) 8 7 9 9 8 4 2 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 29% 2.50 5.94 P
  (by STARSPANGLEDBANNER out of SHORT AFFAIR by SINGSPIEL (IRE))
KING'S SECRET (GB) 1 2 3 4 3 23 3 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 28% 2.60 3.40 S
  (by UNKNOWN out of SECRET SENSE by SHAMARDAL)
NOBLE BERNADETTE 9 6 75 6 5 3 4 (stall albert )VELAZQUEZ R 121 15.00 24.80  
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of WINTER CAT by PARADING)
11  CALL ME TONI 11 11 10 8 74 5 5 (hughes g)BEJARANO R 121 20.00 29.99  
  (by TONALIST out of BROKEN MARRIAGE by BROKEN VOW)
BRIC A BRAC 3 4 11 11 1½ 7 614¾ (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 121 15.00 34.56  
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of SENADA by PULPIT)
QUEEN RHAENYRA 4 10 11 11 11 810¼ 714¾ (mccarthy mic)GEROUX FLORENT 121 15.00 31.49  
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of BETTY DRAPER by STREET CRY)
SILENT REVENGE 2 9 8 10 9 911¼ 816¼ (dyer john)MACHADO LUAN 121 20.00 64.62  
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of SILENCER by QUALITY ROAD)
LASERJET 6 8 5 7 10 1016¼ 926¾ (shirer a)ASHTON GAVIN 121 20.00 5% 19.00 44.22  
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of AUNT DOT DOT by GULCH)
10  MILAN MISCHIEF 10 5 21 21 4 1117¾ 1032 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 15.00 56.90  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of PAY ATTENTION by TAKE ME OUT (IRE))
ENGLISH TREASURE 7 1 6 53 63 6 11100 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 8.00 12% 7.50 6.88  
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of BOURBON N BURLEY by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

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