Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 09, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/6)-(2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/6)-(2/6/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/4/6)-(2/6/3)-(7/4/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-2   WIN (2/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/3)-(2/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/3)-(2/6/3)-(2/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/6/3)-(7/4/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/6/3)-(7/4/6)-(3/7/5/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/6)-(7/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/6)-(7/4/6)-(7/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/6)-(3/7/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/6)-(3/7/5/2)-(5/7/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-4   WIN (3/7/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/5/2)-(3/7/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/5/2)-(3/7/5/2)-(3/7/5/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/5/2)-(5/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/7/5/2)-(5/7/2)-(10/9/6/1/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/2)-(5/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/2)-(5/7/2)-(5/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/7/2)-(10/9/6/1/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/7/2)-(10/9/6/1/5)-(2/3/9/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (10/9/6/1/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/9/6/1/5)-(10/9/6/1/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/9/6/1/5)-(10/9/6/1/5)-(10/9/6/1/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/9/6/1/5)-(2/3/9/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/9/6/1/5)-(2/3/9/6)-(1/5/6/10/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-7   WIN (2/3/9/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/9/6)-(2/3/9/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/9/6)-(2/3/9/6)-(2/3/9/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/9/6)-(1/5/6/10/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/3/9/6)-(1/5/6/10/4)-(8/1/5/7/6) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-8   WIN (1/5/6/10/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/5/6/10/4)-(1/5/6/10/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/5/6/10/4)-(1/5/6/10/4)-(1/5/6/10/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/5/6/10/4)-(8/1/5/7/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-9   WIN (8/1/5/7/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/1/5/7/6)-(8/1/5/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/1/5/7/6)-(8/1/5/7/6)-(8/1/5/7/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/09/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PHOTO OP         (hiles ric)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00    
2  CASHMEUP Oct06 Dec31 Nov13     (cowans william )ACHARD ALEX 121 1.60 28% 2.50    
3  LE COOP Mar10 Jan13       (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
4  GILDED CRAKEN Sep22 Aug28 Jul30 May14 Apr22 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 3.00 27% 2.70    
5  MO MOVES Oct15 Sep22 Sep10 Aug28 Aug06 (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50    
6  PEARSE Oct09 Aug09 Jun24 Apr20 Mar11 (lobo paul)TORRES A 121 3.50 11% 8.30    
 
CD-2   11/09/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BUCKEYE ROSE Sep13 Aug09 Jun07 Sep12   (drury jr)MCKEE J 118 5.00    
2  YOLANDA WHO Oct15 Sep24 Jun03 Mar25 Feb26 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00 45% 1.20    
3  SHIP IT Oct15 Sep24 Aug04 Jun24 May27 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 3.50 13% 6.40    
4  SONADOR Oct26 Sep13 Aug16 Jun17 May20 (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 113 5.00    
5  BEACH KITTEN Oct15 Oct01 Aug29 Aug10 Jul06 (miller jero)PETERSON FERRIN 120 15.00    
6  SHOWGIRL LYNNE B Oct13 Sep24 Jun17 May20 Mar25 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 21% 3.70    
7  DOGWOODSMILLIEJANE Oct15 Sep20 Jun11 May02 Feb15 (taylor brent)BEJARANO R 120 12.00    
 
CD-3   11/09/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CODE RUNNER Oct13 Aug27 Jul20 Jun10 May20 (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00    
SCR  DREAM KEEPER Aug16 Jul24 Jun04 Apr16 Mar23 (cowans william )ACHARD ALEX 121 6.00    
3  COUSIN LARRY Sep30 Sep11 Jul19 May28 May11 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00    
4  SHORTLIST Sep30 Sep12 Aug11 Jun25 Jun02 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 5.00 32% 2.10    
5  HUGE BIGLY Oct13 Jul27 Jun14 May13 Apr16 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 2.00    
6  BOITANO Oct15 Sep23 Sep09 Aug07 Jul22 (forster t)LANERIE J 121 10.00 10% 9.10    
7  KATTATH Oct12 Sep14 Aug05 Jan08 Dec18 (schultz l)TORRES A 121 4.50 35% 1.90    
 
CD-4   11/09/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUNDBERG Oct12 Jun16 May13 Apr08 Mar12 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 124 2.50    
2  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN Jun16 May21 Mar19 Feb11 Jan14 (barnett bobb)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 12.00 6% 14.90    
3  GUCCI BOY Sep22 Jul30 Jul09 Jun15 Apr08 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.50 44% 1.30    
4  PASSING JUDGMENT         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00    
5  SMOKE WAGON Oct12 Sep02 Aug01 Jul16 Jul02 (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00 10% 9.20    
SCR  HESS         (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00    
7  CITY OF LOVE Oct08 Mar25       (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 122 6.00 10% 9.10    
8  OFFICER QUIGLEY         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 12.00    
9  STUDY COMMITTEE Oct08 Aug31 Aug04 Jun25   (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 6.00    
 
CD-5   11/09/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($141K) 3 ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONEY RUN Oct12 Sep08 Aug19 Jun15 Apr12 (barnett c)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
2  CHISELER Oct08 Aug19 Jul08 May20 Mar09 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
3  BAL A KAZOO Oct08 Aug19 Jul08 Jun20 May28 (gorham m)PEREZ E 120 5.00    
4  MOUNSIEUR COCO Oct08 Sep09 Aug19 Jul08 Nov26 (gutierrez)TORRES A 118 4.00    
5  PRIVATE CREED Sep09 Aug13 May13 Apr16 Feb18 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.50 59% 0.70    
6  SON OF A BIRCH Aug13 May20 May05 Jul30 Jul01 (morley thoma)TORRES A 118 12.00    
7  GASLIGHT DANCER Sep30 Sep02 Aug13 May13 Apr16 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 7% 12.80    
SCR  RYVIT Sep23 Aug25 Jul28 Jul02 May20 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 1.20    
 
CD-6   11/09/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIKEALICIOUS Sep14         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 6% 16.50    
  (by BLAME out of TATTERSAIL by TWIRLING CANDY)
2  BROADWAY RED Oct20         (delong b)RODRIGUEZ A 119 30.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of BROADWAY DINER by TAPIZAR)
3  WICKED MELODY         (molloy thomas)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of COREOPSIS by MR. INTEGRITY)
4  GENERAL ISSUE (FR)         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of MY GI GI by E DUBAI)
5  EL MATADOR         (mott riley)VELAZQUEZ R 119 8.00 6% 16.80    
  (by INCLUDE out of MINI CHANNEL by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
6  FORMAL AFFAIR Oct15         (trombetta )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 15% 5.60    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of TOAST TO LOVE by CONGRATS)
SCR  SALMING Oct14         (caramori ca)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 5.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of READY TO TANGO by MORE THAN READY)
8  HEART HEADED Oct13         (walden w)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of LA MALAGUENA by DIABLO)
9  KING ANTHONY Sep03         (hernandez)TORRES A 119 10.00 17% 5.00    
  (by TALE OF VERVE out of GEM GEM by TAPIT)
10  BEAR RIVER Oct07 Sep10 Aug24     (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 1.80 37% 1.70    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of SIXTYFIVENORTH by MIDSHIPMAN)
11  MIDNIGHT STORMY May29 May11       (minnock wayne )MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of AVA G by AFTERNOON DEELITES)
12  CHARGE THE CASTLE         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of CASTLESINAIR by STREET SENSE)
 
CD-7   11/09/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOLIDIFY Oct18 Sep22 Sep07 Jul22 Jun23 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 114 5.00    
2  W W HOTSHOT Aug23 Aug02 Jul13 Jun14 May28 (becker sc)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 44% 1.30    
3  TEE BURNS Oct18 Sep29 Aug09 Jul26 Jul09 (hartman ch)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 26% 2.90    
4  LYKAN Oct18 Sep04 Aug23 Jul27 Jun14 (young te)SANTANA JR 121 20.00    
5  BLUE KENTUCKY Oct18 Sep22 Jun10 May13 Apr20 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.50    
6  PURE PANIC Oct18 Sep13 Aug06 Jul15 May16 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  LUCKY BOSS Oct19 Sep15 Aug06 Jun10 May13 (contreras)TORRES A 121 5.00    
SCR  FAITHFUL RULER Oct12 Jul19 Jun15 May19 Apr25 (watkins m)MCKEE J 121 15.00    
9  TILTED TOWERS Sep27 Sep13 Jul21 Jun10 May25 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 4.00 6% 16.90    
 
CD-8   11/09/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIRST WORLD WAR Oct08 Sep13       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 33% 2.00    
2  LAGYNOS Sep10         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
3  KHANATE Oct11 Sep03 Aug10     (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 120 8.00    
4  BARKSDALE Oct04         (walden william)ACHARD ALEX 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
5  CATCHING FREEDOM Oct01         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.50 25% 2.90    
6  MOZLZIL Sep10 Aug18       (cox h)VELAZQUEZ R 122 6.00 14% 6.20    
7  WOODCOURT Sep30 Sep09 Aug12 Jun17 Apr20 (walsh bre)TORRES A 122 15.00    
8  FOOTPRINT Oct22         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00    
9  MARKET STREET Sep16 Aug31 Aug12 Jul15 Jun29 (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 120 12.00    
10  PARCHMENT PARTY Sep15         (mott i)GRAHAM J 122 4.00 8% 12.30    
 
CD-9   11/09/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING'S SECRET (GB) Oct14 Sep09 Jul15 Mar05 Jan22 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 28% 2.60    
  (by UNKNOWN out of SECRET SENSE by SHAMARDAL)
2  SILENT REVENGE Oct26 Mar09 Feb18 Jan05   (dyer john)MACHADO LUAN 121 20.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of SILENCER by QUALITY ROAD)
3  BRIC A BRAC Sep22 Aug16 Jul12 Jun08 May18 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 121 15.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of SENADA by PULPIT)
4  QUEEN RHAENYRA Oct01         (mccarthy mic)GEROUX FLORENT 121 15.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of BETTY DRAPER by STREET CRY)
5  SPARTAN QUEEN Oct01 Jan21 Dec31     (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 12% 7.40    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of TULSA QUEEN by CACTUS RIDGE)
6  LASERJET Sep17 Jun23       (shirer a)ASHTON GAVIN 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of AUNT DOT DOT by GULCH)
7  ENGLISH TREASURE Oct14 Sep17 Sep03 Aug13 Dec01 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 8.00 12% 7.50    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of BOURBON N BURLEY by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
8  LADY CLAYPOOLE (IRE) Sep07 Aug12       (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 29% 2.50    
  (by STARSPANGLEDBANNER out of SHORT AFFAIR by SINGSPIEL (IRE))
9  NOBLE BERNADETTE Sep09 Oct14 Sep08     (stall albert )VELAZQUEZ R 121 15.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of WINTER CAT by PARADING)
10  MILAN MISCHIEF Oct01 Apr01 Feb26     (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 15.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of PAY ATTENTION by TAKE ME OUT (IRE))
11  CALL ME TONI Oct26 Jun08 May18 Apr13 Mar09 (hughes g)BEJARANO R 121 20.00    
  (by TONALIST out of BROKEN MARRIAGE by BROKEN VOW)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.