Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Sunday - November 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (5/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $35.52 $35.52 29.52
CD-2   Win (2) 1 $2.00 $2.00 3 1 0 $2.76  
CD-3   Win (1/8/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 0 $17.30  
CD-4   Win (8/11/10/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $3.64 $3.64  
CD-5   Win (5/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 0 $8.50  
CD-6   Win (10/3/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $9.60 $9.60 1.60
CD-7   Win (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $5.82 $5.82  
CD-8   Win (6/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 4 1 1 $8.00 $8.00 4.00
CD-9   Win (4/10) 2 $2.00 $4.00 12 1 0 $11.24  
CD-10   Win (10/8/1/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 1 $25.86 $25.86 17.86
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:241 :483 1:134 1:383   1:45   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  MIDNIGHT TANGO 4 1 21½ 21 1nk 11 11¼ (pitts helen)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 12.00 5% 19.00 16.76 W
5  EAST SHORE 5 4 42½ 42½ 31 21 21¼ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 1.80 50% 1.00 1.27 P
1  WITS AND WAGERS 1 6 64¼ 63 42½ 43½ 34½ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 3.00 3.06  
3  LADY MERCEDES 3 2 11½ 11 2nk 33½ 49¼ (forster gran)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 6.31  
2  OVERINDULGENCE 2 3 52¾ 52½ 53½ 59½ 517 (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 118 4.50 7.74  
6  AZURA 6 5 32½ 31½ 64½ 613 624¾ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 21% 3.70 3.58  
 
CD-2   11/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($73K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:22 :444 :563     1:091   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LARK'S MISCHIEF 2 1 1½ 1½   11 1¼ (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 1.80 0.38  
5  WAKE SURF 3 3 2½ 2½   21 2¼ (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 120 12.00 3.65  
2  RUGGS 1 2 32 32½   32½ 32¼ (moquett ro)SANTANA JR 120 6.00 41% 1.50 2.61 S
SCR  ELI'S PROMISE               (divito p)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
SCR  ELITE FORCES               (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.60    
SCR  MAJOR BLUE               (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 5.00    
 
CD-3   11/12/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:233 :471 1:12     1:251   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  LOU ANNA 3 2 2nk 1nk   11½ 1nk (tomlinson m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 7.65  
6  BETTE DAVIS 4 6 51¾ 41¼   21½ 2nk (tomlinson michae)ASHTON GAVIN 119 6.00 11% 7.90 4.18 P
8  DANCING PRINCESS 6 1 3½ 31   34½ 34¼ (spicer t)LEBRON VICTOR 119 4.00 17% 5.00 3.46 S
1  MO'S VINO MESA 1 3 1nk 2nk   46½ 48¼ (thomas jonathan)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 49% 1.10 1.23  
7  CHOCTAW GRACE 5 4 61¾ 52¼   510½ 516 (humphries thoma)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 7.70  
9  PARTAKE 7 7 74¾ 76¾   613 616½ (wojczynski ju)PETERSON FERRIN 119 6.00 9.07  
3  YAREE D TAT 2 5 41½ 63¼   714 720¾ (gilliam b)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 119 15.00 54.71  
SCR  NAUGHTY MISS               (roberson de)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
SCR  PRIX               (wojczy)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 12.00    
 
CD-4   11/12/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:224 :454 :571     1:031   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  MYSTIK DAN 7 1 2nk 1nk   14 17¾ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.00 58% 0.70 0.82 W
7  EUSEBIUS 6 2 83¾ 84   57 27¾ (mccarthy w)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00 6.43 P
10  EVAN ON EARTH 9 10 52¼ 51¾   35½ 37¾ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 8% 11.90 9.95 S
1  CHUN MONEY 1 5 1nk 2nk   24 48½ (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 ★ 11.40  
2  GRAND EMPEROR 2 7 109¼ 109   98¾ 59½ (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 26.43  
9  HENRO 8 9 72¾ 73¾   67 69¾ (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00 15.59  
11  FLOTATION STATION 10 8 31 3.2   46 711¾ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 3.50 13% 6.50 7.67  
6  JOE SHIESTY 5 3 41¼ 41¾   77¼ 812 (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00 27.67  
4  MIGHTY MESSAGE 4 6 62¼ 62¼   87¼ 912½ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 9.31  
3  BRODY 3 4 95¾ 98   1010¼ 1013¾ (pompell rob)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 119 20.00 65.73  
SCR  NATIONAL ECLIPSE               (williamson brian)ASHTON GAVIN 119 20.00    
 
CD-5   11/12/2023 7260ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:252 :51 1:162 1:404   2:05   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  ANATOLIAN 6 52 62½ 62¼ 31½ 11½ 13¾ (maker j)CHUAN MARTIN 121 6.00 3.25  
9  MUSIC STREET 7 2½ 2½ 2½ 11 21½ 23¾ (beckman w)LEPAROUX R 121 3.00 2.18  
1  LADY ARSINOE 1 62¼ 42 42 54½ 44 34 (mott i)GRAHAM J 121 8.00 9.43  
2  PRETTY PROVOCATIVE 2 73¾ 73½ 73¾ 65 54½ 44 (molloy thomas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 12.00 18.34  
6  SHE'S GONE 5 1½ 1½ 1½ 21 32 56 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00 20% 4.10 3.51  
3  QUERIDINHA LECA 3 42 52 52 77½ 79 612 (lobo h)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 20.00 7% 13.90 11.36  
5  STIR CRAZY 4 31½ 31 31 42½ 67½ 715 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 44% 1.30 3.70  
SCR  CREATIVE CAIRO               (schultz lin)LEPAROUX R 121 2.50    
SCR  LILAC GIRL               (thomas jonatha)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.50    
 
CD-6   11/12/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:232 :473 1:124 1:252   1:383   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  SHE'S MAGIC 3 7 54 31½ 42 32 1nk (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 121 2.50 25% 3.00 3.80 W
2  AREUHAVINGFUNYET 2 1 1½ 1nk 1½ 12 2nk (sims p)ACHARD ALEX 121 15.00 10.26  
5  EVIE'S ENCORE 5 4 75½ 52¾ 31½ 42¼ 32¾ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 ★ 2.61 S
4  MIKITA 4 3 2½ 2nk 2½ 22 44¼ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00 7.21  
8  BATTLING BUBBLES 8 10 96¼ 85¼ 67½ 57¼ 58¾ (hiles jeff)SANTANA JR 121 8.00 5% 18.30 7.63  
10  BIG DIG 10 8 64 63¾ 56 68¾ 610½ (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 47% 1.10 2.37  
1  AMAZON BARBIE 1 6 106¾ 106¼ 78½ 710¼ 712¾ (cunningham )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 20.00 21.34  
7  LADY ROBO 7 5 42 42½ 810½ 818¼ 825¼ (holden darragh)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00 56.70  
6  NEWYEARSPRESENT 6 2 31 74¼ 1014 921¼ 932½ (o'connor robert )MACHADO LUAN 124 20.00 5% 19.00 48.38  
9  PROUD PERFORMER 9 9 85¾ 95¾ 914 1022¼ 1043¼ (king l)CANNON DECLAN 121 30.00 43.74  
 
CD-7   11/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:234 :48 1:122 1:364   1:431   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  NASH 4 3 11 11½ 11½ 14½ 110¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.00 12% 7.40 1.91 W
2  JUSTIFREAK 2 4 31 32 32 24½ 210¼ (kenneally ed)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 29.55  
9  RESILIENCE 9 1 94¾ 96 87 68½ 311¼ (mott i)GRAHAM J 119 6.00 ★ 4.64 S
5  NYQUIST FREQUENCY 5 5 21 21½ 21½ 35 413 (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00 30.38  
3  BE YOU 3 6 41¼ 53½ 54 47½ 514½ (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 1.60 61% 0.60 1.43  
6  DJANGO 6 9 62¾ 64 43½ 58½ 615 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 5% 18.20 5.86  
1  NUEVO EMPIRE 1 7 72¾ 85½ 97½ 711 715¾ (medina robe)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00 25.85  
8  CRUSADING 8 8 83¼ 74½ 76 812 822¾ (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 15.00 49.98  
7  NULLIFY 7 2 52¼ 43 65 915 927 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 30.00 70.32  
 
CD-8   11/12/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:24 :47 1:114 1:241   1:37   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  DOCTOR NASH 2 1 1½ 2½ 1nk 11 12¼ (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 121 5.00 13% 6.70 3.00 W
1  WATASHA 1 2 41 1½ 2nk 21 22¼ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.40 1.10  
6  RUNGIUS 4 5 51½ 32 51¾ 33 32¼ (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 1.60 54% 0.90 2.27 S
7  SEVEN FLAT 5 3 2½ 52½ 31½ 46 46 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 6.35  
5  HOODLUM 3 4 3½ 42 41¾ 58 516¼ (stall albert )GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 12.00 20.78  
SCR  LIAM THE BRAVE               (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
SCR  STIRDATPOT               (londono geneviev)MILLER CHASE 121 12.00    
 
CD-9   11/12/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:22 :444 :564     1:031   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  COPPOLA 5 3 2½ 2nk   11½ 11½ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00 4.62  
2  EDGE TO EDGE 2 2 32½ 42   21½ 21½ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 20.00 1.50  
1  JUST MIGHT 1 4 42½ 31   32½ 32¾ (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00 2.36  
10  LET MY PEOPLE GO 4 5 54½ 53½   44 42¾ (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 22% 3.60 5.79  
4  HEAVEN STREET 3 1 1½ 1nk   54½ 517 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.50 55% 0.80 4.22  
SCR  MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE               (cowans d)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00    
SCR  OCEANIC               (blair jordan)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 12.00    
SCR  OUTADORE               (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.00    
SCR  PURPLE DREAM               (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00    
SCR  SOSUA SUMMER               (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00    
SCR  MARK OF THE Z               (rodriguez j)LEPAROUX R 120 15.00    
SCR  FRONT RUN THE FED               (caramori cai)CORRALES GERARDO 124 8.00    
SCR  ZOOMBIE               (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 120 20.00    
SCR  BAD BEAT BRIAN               (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 120 5.00    
SCR  ARREST ME RED               (ward wesle)RODRIGUEZ A 120 5.00    
SCR  CLOUDY               (mcgaughey c)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 12.00    
 
CD-10   11/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:35
See original race card.
:241 :484 1:134 1:39   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  KITTY HAWK (GB) 2 1 11½ 11 1½ 13 11 (oliver vi)DE CRUZ 119 12.00 5% 19.00 11.93 W
10  RAPOPORT 10 7 63 53½ 53 33½ 21 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 57% 0.80 1.48 P
1  RIVETAGE 1 2 42 32 42 44½ 34½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 9% 10.20 5.92 S
6  MASMAK 6 5 31½ 42½ 31½ 55 45¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50 ★ 4.39  
8  COLLINS 8 4 21½ 21 2½ 23 55¼ (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00 9% 10.00 17.70  
7  WORKISLIFE 7 3 74½ 74½ 75 77½ 67½ (o'donnell marcus)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 13.50  
3  CHAPERONE 3 9 109½ 109 99 99 77¾ (moquett ro)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 7.77  
4  WARP NINE 4 8 87 85 64½ 66½ 88 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 119 4.00 10.17  
9  HOPE JOE'S RIGHT 9 10 98 96 85 87½ 99 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 31.70  
5  J BIRD TIME 5 6 52½ 63½ 109½ 1011½ 1013¼ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 20.71  
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.