Handicappers' Racing Form

"A Premier Resource for Free horse Racing Picks, Strong Longshots and Vulnerable Favorites."
Thoroughbred Racing Simulator is licensed and powered by Brisnet.
Visit us at tbrsimulator.com.
Contact us at support@tbrsimulator.com.
Follow us on X@tbrsimulator.
 
The Longshot Specialist!

Churchill Downs
Sunday - November 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CD-1   WIN (5/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/4)-(5/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/4)-(5/6/4)-(5/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/4)-(2) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (5/6/4)-(2)-(1/8/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
CD-2   WIN (2) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2)-(1/8/6) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (2)-(1/8/6)-(8/11/10/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/8/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/8/6)-(1/8/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/8/6)-(1/8/6)-(1/8/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/8/6)-(8/11/10/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/8/6)-(8/11/10/7)-(5/6/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-4   WIN (8/11/10/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/11/10/7)-(8/11/10/1/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/11/10/7)-(8/11/10/1/7)-(8/11/10/1/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/11/10/7)-(5/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/11/10/7)-(5/6/3)-(10/3/8/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/3)-(5/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/3)-(5/6/3)-(5/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/3)-(10/3/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/6/3)-(10/3/8/6)-(3/4/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (10/3/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/3/8/6)-(10/3/8/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/3/8/6)-(10/3/8/6/5)-(10/3/8/6/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/3/8/6)-(3/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/3/8/6)-(3/4/6)-(6/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-7   WIN (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/6)-(3/4/6/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/4/6)-(3/4/6/9)-(3/4/6/9) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/4/6)-(6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/4/6)-(6/4)-(4/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/4)-(6/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/4)-(4/10) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (6/4)-(4/10)-(10/8/1/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-9   WIN (4/10) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/10)-(4/10) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/10)-(10/8/1/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
CD-10   WIN (10/8/1/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/8/1/2)-(10/8/1/6/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/8/1/2)-(10/8/1/6/2)-(10/8/1/6/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CD-1   11/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WITS AND WAGERS Oct18 Sep03 Aug19 Jul15 Jun16 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 3.00    
OVERINDULGENCE Oct20 Oct01 Aug28 Jul23 Jun11 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 4.50    
LADY MERCEDES Oct19 Jun24 Jun02     (forster gr)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00    
MIDNIGHT TANGO Sep13 Apr19 Feb25 Nov24 Nov06 (pitts helen)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
EAST SHORE Oct18 Jul22 Jun11 May25 Apr07 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 1.80 50% 1.00    
AZURA Oct02 Sep09 Apr27 Apr03 Feb20 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 21% 3.70    
 
CD-2   11/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($73K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ELITE FORCES Oct13 Aug20 Jun25     (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.60    
RUGGS Sep07 Aug03 Jun27 May19 Apr28 (moquett )SANTANA JR 120 6.00 41% 1.50    
LARK'S MISCHIEF Sep20 Jul30 Jun23 May28 Apr08 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 1.80    
SCR  ELI'S PROMISE Oct25 Aug20 Jul31 Jun25 May28 (divito p)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
WAKE SURF Oct06 Sep02 Jun24 May13 Dec15 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 120 12.00    
SCR  MAJOR BLUE Oct25 Sep20 Aug25 Aug04 Jul21 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 5.00    
 
CD-3   11/12/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MO'S VINO MESA         (thomas jonathan)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 49% 1.10    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of SNOW MESA by SKY MESA)
SCR  PRIX Nov01 Oct04       (wojc)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 12.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of TAHFEEZ by ALJABR)
YAREE D TAT Oct06 Aug02       (gilliam james)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 119 15.00    
  (by RAISON D'ETAT out of TRUE LOVE IS YARE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  NAUGHTY MISS Sep20 Aug11 Jul16 Jun25   (roberson )HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of INCLUDING by INCLUDE)
LOU ANNA Oct26 Sep08 Aug31 Jul20 May27 (tomlinson)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of LATEST THINKING by TALE OF THE CAT)
BETTE DAVIS Sep21         (tomlinson mich)ASHTON GAVIN 119 6.00 11% 7.90    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of POST SCRIPT by QUALITY ROAD)
CHOCTAW GRACE Oct08 Sep20 Aug11     (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of SARAH HER HIGHNESS by MILWAUKEE BREW)
DANCING PRINCESS Oct29 Sep27 Jun25 Jun10   (spicer james )LEBRON VICTOR 119 4.00 17% 5.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of CASTINETTE DANCER by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
PARTAKE Oct10 Sep07 Aug10 Jun25 Jun10 (wojczynski )PETERSON FERRIN 119 6.00    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of MINCE by WAR FRONT)
 
CD-4   11/12/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CHUN MONEY         (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
  (by MITOLE out of MY LADY LAUREN by HARD SPUN)
GRAND EMPEROR         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of OFF MY STAGE by MORE THAN READY)
BRODY         (pompell r)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 119 20.00    
  (by BRODY'S CAUSE out of CINNIE by MARTE)
MIGHTY MESSAGE         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of GIANT REVIEW by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  NATIONAL ECLIPSE         (williamson bri)ASHTON GAVIN 119 20.00    
  (by ALTERNATION out of MIDNIGHT ECLIPSE by MALIBU MOON)
JOE SHIESTY         (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of READY TO UNLEASH by MORE THAN READY)
EUSEBIUS         (mccarthy michael )SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of AWESOME ASHLEY by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
MYSTIK DAN Oct22         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.00 58% 0.70    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of MA'AM by COLONEL JOHN)
HENRO         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of STREET MINSTREL by STREET CRY (IRE))
10  EVAN ON EARTH         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 8% 11.90    
  (by CONGRATS out of JOSAKA by SMART STRIKE)
11  FLOTATION STATION Sep22 Aug20 Jul23     (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 3.50 13% 6.50    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of CHRISTINA'S COMET by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
 
CD-5   11/12/2023 7260ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LADY ARSINOE Oct07 Aug31 Jul01 May27 Apr26 (mott i)GRAHAM J 121 8.00    
PRETTY PROVOCATIVE Sep10 Aug19 Jun29 May29 Jan22 (molloy thoma)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 12.00    
QUERIDINHA LECA Oct18 Aug18 Jul19 Mar02 Dec28 (lobo h)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 20.00 7% 13.90    
SCR  CREATIVE CAIRO Oct15 Sep16 Aug12 Nov12 Oct20 (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 121 2.50    
STIR CRAZY Sep15 Aug02 Jun23 Jun10 Feb25 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 44% 1.30    
SHE'S GONE Oct15 Sep15 Aug11 Jul01 May18 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00 20% 4.10    
ANATOLIAN Oct04 Aug25 Jul26 Jul04 Jun01 (maker michael )CHUAN MARTIN 121 6.00    
SCR  LILAC GIRL Oct11 Sep09 Apr23 Feb25   (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.50    
MUSIC STREET Oct18 Sep22 Aug11 May27 May05 (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
 
CD-6   11/12/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AMAZON BARBIE Aug17         (cunningha)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 20.00    
AREUHAVINGFUNYET Sep27         (sims p)ACHARD ALEX 121 15.00    
SHE'S MAGIC Sep21 Aug26 Jul23 Jun03 Apr29 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 2.50 25% 3.00    
MIKITA Sep28 Aug28 Jun22 Jan28   (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00    
EVIE'S ENCORE Sep23 Jul23 Jun10 May13   (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50    
NEWYEARSPRESENT Jul08 Jun18 Jun02 May05 Apr01 (o'connor rober)MACHADO LUAN 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
LADY ROBO Oct22         (holden darragh)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00    
BATTLING BUBBLES Feb18 Feb05 Jan06 Jul19   (hiles je)SANTANA JR 121 8.00 5% 18.30    
PROUD PERFORMER Nov04 Sep28 Aug29 Aug01 Jul08 (king l)CANNON DECLAN 121 30.00    
10  BIG DIG Sep28 Aug30 Jul15 Nov17 Sep29 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 47% 1.10    
 
CD-7   11/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NUEVO EMPIRE Oct14 Sep22       (medina ro)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of CLEVERLY by TAPIT)
JUSTIFREAK Oct18         (kenneally )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of THE SCHVAGEN by MATTY G)
BE YOU Oct07 Sep04 Aug05     (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 1.60 61% 0.60    
  (by CURLIN out of JACARANDA by CONGRATS)
NASH Oct07         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.00 12% 7.40    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of SARA LOUISE by MALIBU MOON)
NYQUIST FREQUENCY Oct18 Sep17       (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of IS IT GOLD by INDYGO SHINER)
DJANGO Oct14 Sep15 Aug05 Jul01   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 5% 18.20    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of DAY OF VICTORY by VICTORY GALLOP)
NULLIFY Oct18 Aug12       (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 30.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of BLAME IT ON ALPHIE by BLAME)
CRUSADING Oct01 Sep03 Aug12     (asmussen )TORRES A 119 15.00    
  (by CURLIN out of BELLAVAIS by TAPIT)
RESILIENCE Oct01 Sep01       (mott i)GRAHAM J 119 6.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MEADOWSWEET by SMART STRIKE)
 
CD-8   11/12/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WATASHA Sep27 Aug17 Jun25 May26 May19 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.40    
SCR  STIRDATPOT Oct23 Jul22 Jul06 Apr29 Jun19 (londono genevi)MILLER CHASE 121 12.00    
SCR  LIAM THE BRAVE Sep11 Aug06 Jul19 Jun10 May24 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
DOCTOR NASH Sep30 Sep02 Jan29 Dec11 Nov06 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121 5.00 13% 6.70    
HOODLUM Feb25 Feb15 Jan21 Jan08 Dec17 (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 12.00    
RUNGIUS Oct12 Sep14 Aug18 Dec10 Nov13 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 1.60 54% 0.90    
SEVEN FLAT Oct11 Aug19 Jul21 Jun02 May13 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 121 10.00    
 
CD-9   11/12/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JUST MIGHT Oct15 Sep05 Aug06 Jul07 May26 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00    
EDGE TO EDGE May06 Apr15 Mar18 Feb17 Jan08 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 20.00    
SCR  OCEANIC Oct08 Aug06 Jul01 May23 May06 (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 12.00    
HEAVEN STREET Oct15 Sep02 Jul04 Jun01 May06 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.50 55% 0.80    
SCR  MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE Oct15 Sep02 Jun25 Apr08 Mar10 (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00    
SCR  FRONT RUN THE FED Sep09 Jul22 Jun10 Apr22 Dec31 (caramori c)CORRALES GERARDO 124 8.00    
SCR  ARREST ME RED Sep02 Jul26 Jun10 May06 Apr08 (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 120 5.00    
SCR  BAD BEAT BRIAN Oct07 Sep09 Aug06 May26 May06 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 120 5.00    
SCR  PURPLE DREAM Sep03 Jun25 Apr26 Mar18 Jan14 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00    
10  LET MY PEOPLE GO Oct07 Sep03 Aug06 Jun25 May29 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 22% 3.60    
SCR  MARK OF THE Z Oct15 Jun21 Apr22 Apr08 Dec03 (rodriguez)LEPAROUX R 120 15.00    
12  COPPOLA Oct07 Sep20 Aug23 Jul26 Jun10 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00    
SCR  CLOUDY Oct15 Sep03 Oct23 Sep14 Aug06 (mcgaughey)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 12.00    
SCR  ZOOMBIE Oct21 Sep18 Jul03 Jun05 Oct04 (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 120 20.00    
SCR  SOSUA SUMMER Sep22 Aug24 Jul27 Jun09 Apr20 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00    
SCR  OUTADORE Sep13 Jul22 Feb17 Jan01 Oct28 (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.00    
 
CD-10   11/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RIVETAGE Oct18 Sep22 Sep02     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 9% 10.20    
  (by FROSTED out of POSSE NEEDED by CALEB'S POSSE)
KITTY HAWK (GB) Oct07 Aug27 Jul30     (oliver )DE CRUZ 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of KOMBAT KITTY by WILDCAT HEIR)
CHAPERONE Sep15 Aug12       (moquett )SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
  (by CURLIN out of IT TIZ WELL by ARCH)
WARP NINE Oct26 Sep15 Aug13     (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 4.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of POWERTAP by TAPIT)
J BIRD TIME Sep22         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of RUNAWAY RENEE by MUNNINGS)
MASMAK Sep22         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of NITE IN ROME by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
WORKISLIFE Oct25 Oct07 Sep17     (o'donnell marcus)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of NODOUBTABOUTHER by BERNARDINI)
COLLINS Sep15 Aug13 Jul08     (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00 9% 10.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of LADY LAVERY by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
HOPE JOE'S RIGHT Sep21         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by KLIMT out of TIZJET by TIZNOW)
10  RAPOPORT Oct07         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 57% 0.80    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of TIZ BREATHTAKING by TIZNOW)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.