The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 08, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $4.96 $4.96 -1.04
CD-2   Win (1/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $8.30 $8.30 2.30
CD-3   Win (2/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 3 1 1 $6.66 $6.66 2.66
CD-4   Win (4/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $19.92 -6.00
CD-5   Win (6/11/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 11 1 1 $4.20 $4.20 -3.80
CD-6   Win (5/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $8.76 $8.76 2.76
CD-7   Win (5/10) 2 $2.00 $4.00 4 1 0 $13.98 -4.00
CD-8   Win (4/1/6/13/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 13 1 1 $36.30 $36.30 26.30
CD-9   Win (10/7/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 0 $6.02 -8.00

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/08/2023 4290ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 2 F PT- 1:00
:22 :451 1:11     1:182   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
INTERMITTENT FAST 3 3 2½ 1nk   11(ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.00 24% 3.20 1.48 W
READY FOR TROUBLE 4 6 7 6   22(hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.50 5.31  
MILA JUNES 1 7 54 5   43(evans michael )ARAGON ROLANDO 118 8.00 17.60  
KRICKLE 5 5 43 34   35 45 (holsapple hu)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 3.50 2.81  
ALMOND FUDGE 2 4 1½ 2nk   5514½ (gutierrez faustio)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 17% 4.90 3.38  
LITTLE SASS 7 2 6 7   715½ 625 (demeritte larry)ACHARD ALEX 118 10.00 18.12  
STEALTHESPOTLIGHT 6 1 3 4   613½ 726 (williams ma)TORRES A 118 10.00 14% 6.20 16.97  
 
CD-2   11/08/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 1:30
:234 :464 1:112 1:242   1:381   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TIZZY INDY 3 2 3.2 1nk 1nk 11(desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 119 5.00 10% 9.00 3.15 W
STING MUSIC 6 4 1nk 32 3 32(mcpeek kennet)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.50 11% 8.20 4.31 P
VERACRUZIN 1 1 2nk 2nk 2nk 23(mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 53% 0.90 0.99 S
NOBLE GENTLEMAN 5 3 4 4 46 48 412¾ (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 4.00 4.97  
RICHIESDERBYSTRIKE 4 6 6 510½ 512 512½ 518½ (contreras c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00 9.95  
CHAPS KNIGHT 2 5 5 613½ 620 620½ 626¼ (radosevich j)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00 43.83  
SCR  KYKEON               (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
SCR  SHARPENYOURFAITH               (hartman chris)NAVAS YOEL 112 5.00    
 
CD-3   11/08/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
:27 :534 1:191 1:43   1:493   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SOPHISTICATED 2 3 2 21 2nk 1nk 1¼ (edwards william)NAVAS YOEL 114 12.00 35% 1.90 2.33 W
FLORIS 3 1 1 11 1nk 2nk 2¼ (duvall e)ELLIOTT JANE 121 4.00 1.03  
IN A PEACH 1 2 33 33 33 33 33 (evans michael )ARAGON ROLANDO 118 8.00 1.38  
SCR  CATHERINE BLAZE               (leonard iii)BEJARANO R 118 2.50    
SCR  PRANA               (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 3.00    
SCR  ZIGGZAPPA               (forster t)GRAHAM J 121 2.00 35% 1.90    
 
CD-4   11/08/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
:242 :493 1:144 1:402   1:47   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MALIBU SMART 2 2 3 4 32 21 1(shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 121 8.00 8.96  
IMPERATOR FURIOSA 1 6 1 1 1 11 2(colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.50 9% 10.50 4.65 P
SALSALITA VERDE 8 8 8 7 74 63(amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 3.00 S
TRIBEST (ARG) 4 4 64 5 4 34(mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 60% 0.70 2.09  
LADY FREE WILL 6 3 2 2 2 45(minnock g)LANERIE J 121 15.00 47.79  
DOMINA 3 7 5 32 53 54 6(devaux cher)TORRES A 121 8.00 3.55  
SHA GIRL 5 9 7 8 85 7710½ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 124 15.00 5% 19.00 23.05  
MISS ANALYZED 7 5 96 9 9 8811½ (jones larr)MICHEL MICKAELLE 121 4.00 15.01  
JAYLA 9 1 43 6 64 9913¾ (wittek karyn)ELLIOTT JANE 121 20.00 53.97  
 
CD-5   11/08/2023 5940ft TURF FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
:24 :493 1:144 1:402   1:532   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  CONVERSING 9 4 7 7 7 31¼ (mcgaughey clau)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.00 27% 2.60 1.10 W
UTAH BEACH 5 6 5 65 54 42¼ (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 2.50 39% 1.60 2.19 P
ORBI ONE 2 3 11 11 1½ 1½ 3(ortiz john)SANTANA JR 121 15.00 5% 19.00 21.41 S
AS ONE DOES 6 1 21 21 2½ 2½ 44 (oliver victoria)GARCIA MARTIN 121 15.00 31.22  
CROSSING 3 2 3 32 32 54 56 (hill f)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 30.00 68.43  
15  FAYETTE SPIRIT 11 7 9 9 9 77 6(medina robe)TORRES A 121 8.00 7.84  
PRESIDER 8 10 8 8 8 67(caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00 35.34  
PROTON SPIRIT 1 5 64 55 6 88(wittek karyn)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00 34.83  
WHITEWALKER 7 11 4 43 42 9911½ (thomas jonathan)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00 12% 7.50 8.02  
12  EARL OF DASSEL 10 9 11 1111¼ 11 1011¾ 1015¾ (pessin neil)HERNANDEZ J 121 20.00 57.08  
PILKINGTON 4 8 107 10 10 1113¼ 1121½ (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00 25.79  
SCR  TIZ WICKED STRONG               (baker james)GRAHAM J 121 4.00    
SCR  MISSIONAIRE               (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00    
SCR  ODE TO GERSHWIN               (gallagher willi)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 30.00    
SCR  SAGITTARIUS               (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 121 5.00    
SCR  GAME KEEPER               (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 6.00    
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA               (medina robe)TORRES A 124 10.00    
SCR  ICE TIME               (sharp joe)TORRES A 121 3.00    
 
CD-6   11/08/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 3:31
:211 :441 :57     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROYAL SPA 1 6 5 43   41nk (brisset rodolp)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 17% 5.00 3.38 W
CHARRIERE 3 3 32 32   22nk (mckeever andrew)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 11.30  
MISS ARLINGTON 4 4 2nk 1½   13(williamson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00 22% 3.50 2.50 S
EFFORTLESSLYELGANT 2 5 1nk 2½   34(casse norm)SANTANA JR 118 1.80 1.55  
LOVER GIRL 6 2 6 58   55(williams ma)TORRES A 118 15.00 14.79  
PARODY 5 1 4 610   612¾ 636 (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 23% 3.30 5.14  
 
CD-7   11/08/2023 4290ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
:223 :453 1:102     1:171   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MARGOINABUBBLEBATH 4 3 2 21   11(shirer a)LANERIE J 118 12.00 5.99  
SPARKLE OF HOPE 2 7 53 3   22(foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 2.80 P
ROC'S PRINCESS 3 8 11 1111   93(gowan william)COURT K 120 20.00 42.37  
PROMISE OF HOPE 6 6 3 5   445 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 3.95  
MISS FOXANN 7 1 7 7   65(chavez manuel)AYALA ISAIAS 120 20.00 61.00  
PUNCHY GIRL 8 11 8 86   56 6(morse randy)LEPAROUX R 120 20.00 7.52  
10  MOON MAGIC CHRISSY 10 2 1 11   37(danner doug)CORREA L 118 10.00 5% 19.00 17.80  
VOW 5 5 4 6   78 8(asmussen st)TORRES A 120 2.50 76% 0.30 5.80  
ARDEN'S ASSAULT 9 4 6 43   8913 (santamaria car)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00 10.57  
11  MUSIC FESTIVAL 11 10 10 9   1011½ 1016¼ (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 120 8.00 6.59  
FRANKEL BABY 1 9 9 1010   1117½ 1137 (mcewen j)GRAHAM J 118 12.00 32.36  
 
CD-8   11/08/2023 5610ft TURF FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
:241 :484 1:14 1:393   1:46   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
13  LEAVE IT TO KITTEN 12 5 6 6 5 11(jarvis kathy)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 5% 19.00 17.15 W
11  STROKE OF MIDNIGHT 10 10 10 8 7 22(begley greg)ACHARD ALEX 121 30.00 35.44  
SHERLOCK'S JEWEL 8 9 97 9 8 44 3(mcgaughey c)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00 9.59  
SAFE TRIP HOME 3 2 5 5 6 74(cowans d)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00 37% 1.70 1.86  
10  MADISON LUVS DUKE 9 12 129 12 10 9511 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00 10.70  
12  WRITE OFF JERRY 11 8 31 1nk 1nk 3612¼ (hiles a)LANERIE J 120 15.00 23.28  
EL AHIJADO 6 4 86 11 1211 10714¼ (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 114 30.00 99.75  
TEPEU 2 1 1½ 2nk 2nk 5814½ (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 121 12.00 5% 19.00 14.85  
MIDNIGHT RISING 1 6 42 4 32 6915½ (blair jordan)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00 24% 3.20 6.19  
GATLINBURG 5 3 2½ 33 4 81020 (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 3.50 13% 6.90 2.71  
CAIRO'S GHOST 7 11 11 10 1110½ 1215¾ 1126¾ (drury thoma)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00 24.88  
ROJA REDEMPTION 4 7 75 7 98 1113¾ 1228¾ (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00 24.49  
SCR  CANT BE DOIN THAT               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00    
SCR  SBAGLIATO               (thomas jonatha)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00    
SCR  ST. ELMO               (mccarthy w)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
SCR  THE PRINCE'S SPUR               (bauer a)TORRES A 121 2.50    
 
CD-9   11/08/2023 4620ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
:231 :46 1:104     1:244   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FOREVER HOME 5 2 1½ 1   17 1(danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.50 2.01  
LOOKIN ROYAL 2 9 10 912¾   710½ 2(huffman pat)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 12.00 5% 19.00 15.99 P
OFF THE CHARTS 3 8 8 7   48 3(chavez manuel)AYALA ISAIAS 120 6.00 7% 12.90 25.01 S
12  ROCK THE NILE 9 5 2½ 2   27 4(ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 3.36  
SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI 6 1 3 5   610 511¾ (brennan terr)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 10.00 22.11  
STORMY EMPIRE 1 3 43 67   5611¾ (schultz lindsa)TORRES A 120 6.00 11.54  
ICY STARE DOWN 4 4 6 34   37 715½ (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 113 6.00 19% 4.20 3.74  
10  LUNAR ICE 7 10 9 8   913 816 (girten tim)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.50 47% 1.10 6.25 DH
11  SACRED BEAUTY 8 6 5 4   811½ 816 (roberson dennis)COURT K 120 10.00 28.82 DH
13  GRAN CHEMIN 10 7 74 1013¼   1019 1024¾ (cline robert)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 19.72  
SCR  HIGH SPEED               (delacruz j)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 20.00    
SCR  L. A. STAR               (lucas wayne)CANUTO THIAGO 120 20.00    
SCR  QUEEN LOUISE               (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 120 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries will win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.