Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 08, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-2   Win (1/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-3   Win (3) 1 $2.00 $2.00
CD-4   Win (4/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-5   Win (6/11/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-6   Win (5/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-7   Win (5/10) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-8   Win (4/1/6/13/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-9   Win (10/7/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   11/08/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 2 F PT- 1:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MILA JUNES Oct09 Sep29 Aug20 Jun16   (evans michael )ARAGON ROLANDO 118 8.00    
ALMOND FUDGE Oct06 Sep16 Jul19     (gutierrez faustio)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 17% 4.90    
INTERMITTENT FAST Oct11 Aug13 Jun21 May26 Apr28 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.00 24% 3.20    
READY FOR TROUBLE Oct21 Sep27 Aug01     (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.50    
KRICKLE Oct29 Sep27 Sep16 Aug20 Jul30 (holsapple hu)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 3.50    
STEALTHESPOTLIGHT Aug06 Jul07 Apr29     (williams ma)TORRES A 118 10.00 14% 6.20    
LITTLE SASS Oct11 Sep27 Jun17     (demeritte larry)ACHARD ALEX 118 10.00    
 
CD-2   11/08/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 1:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
VERACRUZIN Oct28 Sep24 Sep13 Aug25   (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 53% 0.90    
CHAPS KNIGHT Sep16         (radosevich)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00    
SCR  SHARPENYOURFAITH Sep15 Jul30       (hartman chris)NAVAS YOEL 112 5.00    
TIZZY INDY Oct04 Aug10 Jul23     (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 119 5.00 10% 9.00    
RICHIESDERBYSTRIKE Sep17 Aug03       (contreras c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00    
NOBLE GENTLEMAN Oct24 Oct03 Sep13 Aug18 Jul14 (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 4.00    
STING MUSIC Oct20         (mcpeek kennet)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.50 11% 8.20    
SCR  KYKEON Sep11         (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
 
CD-3   11/08/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
IN A PEACH Aug31 Jul29 Jun29 Jun08 Oct13 (evans michael )ARAGON ROLANDO 118 8.00    
SCR  ZIGGZAPPA Oct10 Sep16 Aug28 Jul31 Mar24 (forster t)GRAHAM J 121 2.00 35% 1.90    
SOPHISTICATED Oct06 Aug30 Aug01 Jun17 May25 (edwards william)NAVAS YOEL 114 12.00 35% 1.90    
FLORIS Oct18 Sep28 Aug18 Jun24 May18 (duvall e)ELLIOTT JANE 121 4.00    
SCR  PRANA Jul30 May25 Apr28 Jan13 Dec07 (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 3.00    
SCR  CATHERINE BLAZE Oct18 Sep28 Sep07 Aug01 Jul09 (leonard iii)BEJARANO R 118 2.50    
 
CD-4   11/08/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
IMPERATOR FURIOSA Oct18 Sep15       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.50 9% 10.50    
MALIBU SMART Sep28 Jun22 May29 Apr01   (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 121 8.00    
DOMINA Jul15 May27 Apr07     (devaux cher)TORRES A 121 8.00    
TRIBEST (ARG) Oct01 Sep09 Aug09 Jul05 May24 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 60% 0.70    
SHA GIRL Sep23 Oct15 Sep05 Jul29 May26 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
LADY FREE WILL Oct18 Sep23       (minnock g)LANERIE J 121 15.00    
MISS ANALYZED Oct01 Jun03 May13 Feb24 Jan29 (jones larr)MICHEL MICKAELLE 121 4.00    
SALSALITA VERDE Aug04 Jun30 Jun08 Mar24 Mar02 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50    
JAYLA Oct01 Sep02 Aug19 Mar09 Feb16 (wittek karyn)ELLIOTT JANE 121 20.00    
 
CD-5   11/08/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PROTON SPIRIT Oct02 Sep08       (wittek karyn)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00    
ORBI ONE Sep30 Aug27 Jul23 Jun22 May25 (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SAGITTARIUS Oct13         (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 121 5.00    
CROSSING Oct25 Sep10 Aug27 Aug01 May26 (hill f)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 30.00    
PILKINGTON Oct13 Sep09 Jul28     (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00    
UTAH BEACH Aug31 Aug12       (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 2.50 39% 1.60    
AS ONE DOES Oct25 Sep10 Nov12 Oct18 Sep03 (oliver victoria)GARCIA MARTIN 121 15.00    
WHITEWALKER Nov25 Oct30 Sep18     (thomas jonathan)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00 12% 7.50    
PRESIDER Oct12 Apr21 Mar04 Jan21 Oct19 (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00    
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA Oct06 Sep21 Aug01 May28 May04 (medina robe)TORRES A 124 10.00    
11  CONVERSING Oct13 Oct02 Aug20     (mcgaughey clau)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.00 27% 2.60    
12  EARL OF DASSEL Sep09 Jul02 May14 Apr14 Mar18 (pessin neil)HERNANDEZ J 121 20.00    
SCR  ODE TO GERSHWIN Sep29 Sep08       (gallagher willi)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 30.00    
SCR  MISSIONAIRE Sep30 Sep03 Apr27 Mar18 Jan28 (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00    
15  FAYETTE SPIRIT Oct13 Sep16 Aug27 Jun17 Feb18 (medina robe)TORRES A 121 8.00    
SCR  TIZ WICKED STRONG Sep28 Aug05 Jul07 May14   (baker james)GRAHAM J 121 4.00    
SCR  ICE TIME Sep28 Aug31 Aug05 Jun13 May25 (sharp joe)TORRES A 121 3.00    
SCR  GAME KEEPER Oct21 Aug24 Aug11 Jul21 Jun02 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 6.00    
 
CD-6   11/08/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 3:31
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROYAL SPA Apr01 Mar02 Dec03 Nov18   (brisset rodolp)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 17% 5.00    
EFFORTLESSLYELGANT Apr07 Mar19 Feb25 Jan29 Nov23 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 118 1.80    
CHARRIERE Oct14 Sep12 Aug08 Jul16 Jun24 (mckeever andrew)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00    
MISS ARLINGTON Oct12 Sep17 Aug01 Jul07 Jun15 (williamson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00 22% 3.50    
PARODY Sep17 Feb12 Jan08 Nov19 Oct30 (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 23% 3.30    
LOVER GIRL Oct12 Sep03 Aug12 Jul15 May29 (williams ma)TORRES A 118 15.00    
 
CD-7   11/08/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FRANKEL BABY Sep24 Aug19 Jul08 May27 Aug26 (mcewen j)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
SPARKLE OF HOPE Sep30 Aug27 Jun11 Sep23 Jul03 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00    
ROC'S PRINCESS Oct14 Sep15 Aug08 Jun14 May05 (gowan william)COURT K 120 20.00    
MARGOINABUBBLEBATH Sep29 Jul07 Jun03 May05 Apr14 (shirer a)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
VOW Sep18 Aug01 Jul06 May29 May04 (asmussen st)TORRES A 120 2.50 76% 0.30    
PROMISE OF HOPE Sep24 Aug07 Jun11 May19 Dec26 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50    
MISS FOXANN Oct15 Sep29 Aug31 Aug01 Jul08 (chavez manuel)AYALA ISAIAS 120 20.00    
PUNCHY GIRL Sep29 Aug01 Jul08 Dec30 May06 (morse randy)LEPAROUX R 120 20.00    
ARDEN'S ASSAULT Sep28 Aug31 Jul15 Jun18 Apr27 (santamaria car)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00    
10  MOON MAGIC CHRISSY Oct25 Oct01 Aug27 Jun01 May11 (danner doug)CORREA L 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
11  MUSIC FESTIVAL Oct17 Oct07 Aug18 Apr22 May28 (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 120 8.00    
 
CD-8   11/08/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MIDNIGHT RISING Jul01 May17 Apr28 Mar25 Mar02 (blair jordan)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  SBAGLIATO Feb11 Dec10       (thomas jonatha)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00    
TEPEU Sep30 Aug04 Jun22 May13 Apr15 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
SAFE TRIP HOME Oct12 Jan01 Dec02     (cowans d)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00 37% 1.70    
ROJA REDEMPTION Sep03 Aug18 Jun17 Apr21 Mar25 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
GATLINBURG Oct12 Sep02 Aug02 Jun24 Apr22 (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 3.50 13% 6.90    
EL AHIJADO Oct19 Jun29 May20 Apr19 Mar30 (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 114 30.00    
CAIRO'S GHOST Oct12 Sep16 Aug11     (drury thoma)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00    
SHERLOCK'S JEWEL Sep03 Aug19 Jun03 Apr20 Sep14 (mcgaughey c)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00    
10  MADISON LUVS DUKE Oct11 Sep10 Aug27 Jul14 Jun24 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00    
11  STROKE OF MIDNIGHT Sep10 Aug20 Feb01 Oct06 Aug21 (begley greg)ACHARD ALEX 121 30.00    
12  WRITE OFF JERRY Oct09 Sep25 Apr20 Mar25 Feb10 (hiles a)LANERIE J 120 15.00    
13  LEAVE IT TO KITTEN Oct25 Sep20 Aug31 Aug17 Aug03 (jarvis kathy)MACHADO LUAN 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  THE PRINCE'S SPUR Sep28 Sep03 Jul16 Jun10 May11 (bauer a)TORRES A 121 2.50    
SCR  ST. ELMO Sep27 Aug26 Jul07 Jun10 Apr14 (mccarthy w)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
SCR  CANT BE DOIN THAT Oct08 Jan20 Dec17 Nov27 Nov03 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00    
 
CD-9   11/08/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STORMY EMPIRE Oct19 Sep03 Aug06 Jun01 May14 (schultz lindsa)TORRES A 120 6.00    
SCR  L. A. STAR Oct20 Sep15 Aug28 Jul30 Jul14 (lucas wa)RODRIGUEZ A 120 20.00    
LOOKIN ROYAL Sep28 Sep06 Aug05 Jul26 Jul07 (huffman pat)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HIGH SPEED Oct13 Sep09 Aug23 Jul30 Jul09 (delacruz j)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 20.00    
OFF THE CHARTS Sep20 Aug30 Aug05 Jul27 Jun21 (chavez manuel)AYALA ISAIAS 120 6.00 7% 12.90    
SCR  QUEEN LOUISE Jul12 Jun18 May20 Mar26 Mar18 (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 120 20.00    
ICY STARE DOWN Oct08 Oct01 Jul28 Jul04 May04 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 113 6.00 19% 4.20    
FOREVER HOME Oct01 Aug28 Jul30 Jul07 Jun14 (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.50    
SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI Aug28 Jul31 Jun23 May26 May11 (brennan terr)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 10.00    
10  LUNAR ICE Oct25 Oct04 Sep19 Aug21 Aug10 (girten tim)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.50 47% 1.10    
11  SACRED BEAUTY Oct20 Jul14 Jun23 May02 Mar20 (roberson dennis)CASTANON L 120 10.00    
12  ROCK THE NILE Oct11 Aug31 Aug01 Jul08 Jun21 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
13  GRAN CHEMIN Sep30 Sep21 Sep02 Aug19 Jul26 (cline robert)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.