Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 08, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/6)-(3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/6)-(1/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/2/6)-(1/7/4)-(3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
CD-2   WIN (1/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/4)-(1/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7/4)-(1/7/4)-(1/7/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/7/4)-(3) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (1/7/4)-(3)-(4/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
CD-3   WIN (3) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3)-(4/1/5) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (3)-(4/1/5)-(6/11/8/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/5)-(4/1/8/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/1/5)-(4/1/8/5)-(4/1/8/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/1/5)-(6/11/8/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/5)-(6/11/8/2)-(5/4/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (6/11/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/11/8/2)-(6/11/8/15/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/11/8/2)-(6/11/8/15/2)-(6/11/8/15/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/11/8/2)-(5/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/11/8/2)-(5/4/1)-(5/10) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-6   WIN (5/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/1)-(5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/1)-(5/10) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/4/1)-(5/10)-(4/1/6/13/3) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
CD-7   WIN (5/10) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/10)-(5/11/2/6/10) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (5/10)-(5/11/2/6/10)-(5/11/2/6/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/10)-(4/1/6/13/3) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (5/10)-(4/1/6/13/3)-(10/7/5/3) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
CD-8   WIN (4/1/6/13/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/1/6/13/3)-(4/1/6/13/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/1/6/13/3)-(4/1/6/13/3)-(4/1/6/13/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/1/6/13/3)-(10/7/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-9   WIN (10/7/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/7/5/3)-(10/7/5/8/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/7/5/3)-(10/7/5/8/3)-(10/7/5/8/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/08/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 2 F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MILA JUNES Oct09 Sep29 Aug20 Jun16   (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 118 8.00    
2  ALMOND FUDGE Oct06 Sep16 Jul19     (gutierrez faustio)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 17% 4.90    
3  INTERMITTENT FAST Oct11 Aug13 Jun21 May26 Apr28 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.00 24% 3.20    
4  READY FOR TROUBLE Oct21 Sep27 Aug01     (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.50    
5  KRICKLE Oct29 Sep27 Sep16 Aug20 Jul30 (holsapple )MURRILL MITCHELL 120 3.50    
6  STEALTHESPOTLIGHT Aug06 Jul07 Apr29     (williams )TORRES A 118 10.00 14% 6.20    
7  LITTLE SASS Oct11 Sep27 Jun17     (demeritte larry)ACHARD ALEX 118 10.00    
 
CD-2   11/08/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VERACRUZIN Oct28 Sep24 Sep13 Aug25   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 53% 0.90    
2  CHAPS KNIGHT Sep16         (radosevi)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00    
SCR  SHARPENYOURFAITH Sep15 Jul30       (hartman chris)NAVAS YOEL 112 5.00    
4  TIZZY INDY Oct04 Aug10 Jul23     (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 5.00 10% 9.00    
5  RICHIESDERBYSTRIKE Sep17 Aug03       (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00    
6  NOBLE GENTLEMAN Oct24 Oct03 Sep13 Aug18 Jul14 (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 4.00    
7  STING MUSIC Oct20         (mcpeek kenn)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.50 11% 8.20    
SCR  KYKEON Sep11         (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
 
CD-3   11/08/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IN A PEACH Aug31 Jul29 Jun29 Jun08 Oct13 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 118 8.00    
SCR  ZIGGZAPPA Oct10 Sep16 Aug28 Jul31 Mar24 (forster t)GRAHAM J 121 2.00 35% 1.90    
3  SOPHISTICATED Oct06 Aug30 Aug01 Jun17 May25 (edwards william)NAVAS YOEL 114 12.00 35% 1.90    
4  FLORIS Oct18 Sep28 Aug18 Jun24 May18 (duvall william)ELLIOTT JANE 121 4.00    
SCR  PRANA Jul30 May25 Apr28 Jan13 Dec07 (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 3.00    
SCR  CATHERINE BLAZE Oct18 Sep28 Sep07 Aug01 Jul09 (leonard i)BEJARANO R 118 2.50    
 
CD-4   11/08/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IMPERATOR FURIOSA Oct18 Sep15       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.50 9% 10.50    
2  MALIBU SMART Sep28 Jun22 May29 Apr01   (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 121 8.00    
3  DOMINA Jul15 May27 Apr07     (devaux ch)TORRES A 121 8.00    
4  TRIBEST (ARG) Oct01 Sep09 Aug09 Jul05 May24 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 60% 0.70    
5  SHA GIRL Sep23 Oct15 Sep05 Jul29 May26 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  LADY FREE WILL Oct18 Sep23       (minnock g)LANERIE J 121 15.00    
7  MISS ANALYZED Oct01 Jun03 May13 Feb24 Jan29 (jones la)MICHEL MICKAELLE 121 4.00    
8  SALSALITA VERDE Aug04 Jun30 Jun08 Mar24 Mar02 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 ★    
9  JAYLA Oct01 Sep02 Aug19 Mar09 Feb16 (wittek karyn)ELLIOTT JANE 121 20.00    
 
CD-5   11/08/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROTON SPIRIT Oct02 Sep08       (wittek karyn)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00    
  (by PROTONICO out of BEHAVIORAL FINANCE by TOUCH GOLD)
2  ORBI ONE Sep30 Aug27 Jul23 Jun22 May25 (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ORB out of HONEY LAKE by HONEYLAND)
SCR  SAGITTARIUS Oct13         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 121 5.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of MORE CHOCOLATE by MALIBU MOON)
4  CROSSING Oct25 Sep10 Aug27 Aug01 May26 (hill f)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 30.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of DREAMIN BIG by STUTZ BLACKHAWK)
5  PILKINGTON Oct13 Sep09 Jul28     (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of STORMIN ELLE by STORMELLO)
6  UTAH BEACH Aug31 Aug12       (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 2.50 39% 1.60    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of MY OWN STORY by LASTING APPROVAL)
7  AS ONE DOES Oct25 Sep10 Nov12 Oct18 Sep03 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 121 15.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of MOUNT KELLETT by EMPIRE MAKER)
8  WHITEWALKER Nov25 Oct30 Sep18     (thomas jonathan)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00 12% 7.50    
  (by TAPIT out of HONOURING by SMART STRIKE)
9  PRESIDER Oct12 Apr21 Mar04 Jan21 Oct19 (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00    
  (by CONNECT out of LAWLESS MISS by POSSE)
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA Oct06 Sep21 Aug01 May28 May04 (medina ro)TORRES A 124 10.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of GLORIA S by TAPIT)
11  CONVERSING Oct13 Oct02 Aug20     (mcgaughey cl)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.00 27% 2.60    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TEXTING by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
12  EARL OF DASSEL Sep09 Jul02 May14 Apr14 Mar18 (pessin ne)HERNANDEZ J 121 20.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of DR. MELFI by FREUD)
SCR  ODE TO GERSHWIN Sep29 Sep08       (gallagher wil)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 30.00    
  (by CAN THE MAN out of SUMMER SONG by SUNDAY BREAK (JPN))
SCR  MISSIONAIRE Sep30 Sep03 Apr27 Mar18 Jan28 (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of DIVINITE by MR. SIDNEY)
15  FAYETTE SPIRIT Oct13 Sep16 Aug27 Jun17 Feb18 (medina ro)TORRES A 121 8.00 ★    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of WEEKEND PARTY by A.P. INDY)
SCR  TIZ WICKED STRONG Sep28 Aug05 Jul07 May14   (baker james)GRAHAM J 121 4.00    
  (by WICKED STRONG out of TIZ KISMET by TIZNOW)
SCR  ICE TIME Sep28 Aug31 Aug05 Jun13 May25 (sharp joe)TORRES A 121 3.00    
  (by KEEN ICE out of SIRENUSA by TIZNOW)
SCR  GAME KEEPER Oct21 Aug24 Aug11 Jul21 Jun02 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 6.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of CABLEKNIT by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
CD-6   11/08/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROYAL SPA Apr01 Mar02 Dec03 Nov18   (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 17% 5.00    
2  EFFORTLESSLYELGANT Apr07 Mar19 Feb25 Jan29 Nov23 (casse no)SANTANA JR 118 1.80    
3  CHARRIERE Oct14 Sep12 Aug08 Jul16 Jun24 (mckeever andr)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00    
4  MISS ARLINGTON Oct12 Sep17 Aug01 Jul07 Jun15 (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00 22% 3.50    
5  PARODY Sep17 Feb12 Jan08 Nov19 Oct30 (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 23% 3.30    
6  LOVER GIRL Oct12 Sep03 Aug12 Jul15 May29 (williams )TORRES A 118 15.00    
 
CD-7   11/08/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRANKEL BABY Sep24 Aug19 Jul08 May27 Aug26 (mcewen j)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
2  SPARKLE OF HOPE Sep30 Aug27 Jun11 Sep23 Jul03 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 ★    
3  ROC'S PRINCESS Oct14 Sep15 Aug08 Jun14 May05 (gowan william)COURT K 120 20.00    
4  MARGOINABUBBLEBATH Sep29 Jul07 Jun03 May05 Apr14 (shirer a)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
5  VOW Sep18 Aug01 Jul06 May29 May04 (asmussen )TORRES A 120 2.50 76% 0.30    
6  PROMISE OF HOPE Sep24 Aug07 Jun11 May19 Dec26 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 ★    
7  MISS FOXANN Oct15 Sep29 Aug31 Aug01 Jul08 (chavez manuel)AYALA ISAIAS 120 20.00    
8  PUNCHY GIRL Sep29 Aug01 Jul08 Dec30 May06 (morse ran)LEPAROUX R 120 20.00    
9  ARDEN'S ASSAULT Sep28 Aug31 Jul15 Jun18 Apr27 (santamaria c)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00    
10  MOON MAGIC CHRISSY Oct25 Oct01 Aug27 Jun01 May11 (danner do)CORREA L 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
11  MUSIC FESTIVAL Oct17 Oct07 Aug18 Apr22 May28 (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 120 8.00 ★    
 
CD-8   11/08/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT RISING Jul01 May17 Apr28 Mar25 Mar02 (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  SBAGLIATO Feb11 Dec10       (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00    
3  TEPEU Sep30 Aug04 Jun22 May13 Apr15 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  SAFE TRIP HOME Oct12 Jan01 Dec02     (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00 37% 1.70    
5  ROJA REDEMPTION Sep03 Aug18 Jun17 Apr21 Mar25 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
6  GATLINBURG Oct12 Sep02 Aug02 Jun24 Apr22 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 3.50 13% 6.90    
7  EL AHIJADO Oct19 Jun29 May20 Apr19 Mar30 (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 114 30.00    
8  CAIRO'S GHOST Oct12 Sep16 Aug11     (drury tho)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00    
9  SHERLOCK'S JEWEL Sep03 Aug19 Jun03 Apr20 Sep14 (mcgaughey)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00    
10  MADISON LUVS DUKE Oct11 Sep10 Aug27 Jul14 Jun24 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00    
11  STROKE OF MIDNIGHT Sep10 Aug20 Feb01 Oct06 Aug21 (begley greg)ACHARD ALEX 121 30.00    
12  WRITE OFF JERRY Oct09 Sep25 Apr20 Mar25 Feb10 (hiles a)LANERIE J 120 15.00    
13  LEAVE IT TO KITTEN Oct25 Sep20 Aug31 Aug17 Aug03 (jarvis kathy)MACHADO LUAN 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  THE PRINCE'S SPUR Sep28 Sep03 Jul16 Jun10 May11 (bauer philip)TORRES A 121 2.50    
SCR  ST. ELMO Sep27 Aug26 Jul07 Jun10 Apr14 (mccarthy michael )SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
SCR  CANT BE DOIN THAT Oct08 Jan20 Dec17 Nov27 Nov03 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00    
 
CD-9   11/08/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STORMY EMPIRE Oct19 Sep03 Aug06 Jun01 May14 (schultz lind)TORRES A 120 6.00    
SCR  L. A. STAR Oct20 Sep15 Aug28 Jul30 Jul14 (lucas t )RODRIGUEZ A 120 20.00    
3  LOOKIN ROYAL Sep28 Sep06 Aug05 Jul26 Jul07 (huffman pat)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HIGH SPEED Oct13 Sep09 Aug23 Jul30 Jul09 (delacruz mejia)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 20.00    
5  OFF THE CHARTS Sep20 Aug30 Aug05 Jul27 Jun21 (chavez manuel)AYALA ISAIAS 120 6.00 7% 12.90    
SCR  QUEEN LOUISE Jul12 Jun18 May20 Mar26 Mar18 (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 120 20.00    
7  ICY STARE DOWN Oct08 Oct01 Jul28 Jul04 May04 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 113 6.00 19% 4.20    
8  FOREVER HOME Oct01 Aug28 Jul30 Jul07 Jun14 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.50 ★    
9  SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI Aug28 Jul31 Jun23 May26 May11 (brennan te)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 10.00    
10  LUNAR ICE Oct25 Oct04 Sep19 Aug21 Aug10 (girten tim)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.50 47% 1.10    
11  SACRED BEAUTY Oct20 Jul14 Jun23 May02 Mar20 (roberson denni)CASTANON L 120 10.00    
12  ROCK THE NILE Oct11 Aug31 Aug01 Jul08 Jun21 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
13  GRAN CHEMIN Sep30 Sep21 Sep02 Aug19 Jul26 (cline robe)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.