Handicappers' Racing Form
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Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (8/10/4/11/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-2   Win (7/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-3   Win (4/5/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-4   Win (5/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-5   Win (7/12/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-6   Win (12/7/11/14) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-7   Win (5/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-8   Win (6/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-9   Win (7/10/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-10   Win (6/11/4/1/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-11   Win (1/9/2/10/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
 
CD-1   11/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRADFORD Dec11         (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 121 12.00    
2  SCOTCH NO ROCKS Oct05 Sep20 Aug31 Aug09 Jul14 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  WINGER Jun04 Jan14 Nov26     (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 10.00    
4  DARIO Oct15 Apr15 Mar04 Nov13 Oct23 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.50 5% 19.00    
5  JUL QUIST Oct15 Aug21       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 121 10.00    
6  REDHILL Oct16 Sep06 Aug17 Jul21 Jun15 (pittman bonni)BURNHAM MATILDA 114 30.00    
7  COAL BOSS Oct15 Aug20 Jul21 Mar09 Feb12 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 15.00    
8  ABSOLUTE COURAGE Aug18 Jul09 Jun23 May26 May14 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.40 69% 0.40    
9  VALUABLE CARGO Oct27 Sep24 Aug18 Aug06 Jul09 (miller f)COURT K 121 20.00    
10  GO CATS Oct15 Sep28 Sep03 Aug11 Jun29 (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 5% 19.00    
11  COLONEL BARTON Oct21 Sep24 Aug04 Apr29 Apr16 (puhich mike)MICHEL MICKAELLE 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
12  TEXCOCO Oct27 Aug29 Jul31 Jun23 Feb24 (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 121 15.00    
SCR  GIVE HIM TIME Oct08         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 10.00    
SCR  LEFT POCKET MONEY Nov10 Oct17 Oct02 Sep06 Aug18 (pittman bonni)BURNHAM MATILDA 117 20.00    
 
CD-2   11/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAUMSETT Nov01 Oct17 Sep21 Aug31 Aug08 (egbert james)BURGOS ALBERTO 123 8.00 33% 2.00    
2  COEXIST Oct14 Sep15 Aug19 Jul16 Jul02 (forster t)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00    
3  SHANIAH Sep24 Feb04 Jan05 Dec15 Nov17 (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 8.00    
4  ENCHANTED NILE Oct01 Jul14 May14 Apr07 Jan28 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 2.00    
5  DOCS SEVEN Oct14 May31 May14 Apr25 Apr09 (manley steve)GARCIA MARTIN 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  A LOT OF SPUNK Oct01 Aug16 Jun29 Mar05 Jan26 (foley greg)MCKEE J 121 12.00    
7  CHARGE ACCOUNT Oct01 Sep17 Aug28 Jul27 Jun17 (foster eric)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 38% 1.70    
 
CD-3   11/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOWBEIT Aug26 Jul22 May27 Apr07 Mar11 (morey e)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00    
2  CAMP DAVID Mar16 Feb10 Nov17 Oct27 Oct01 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 13% 6.80    
3  TEXAS RED HOT Oct01 May14 Apr16 Apr02 Mar12 (morse l)MACHADO LUAN 120 12.00    
4  FLAGS UP Sep29 Jun11 May25 May06 Mar30 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 120 4.50 34% 1.90    
5  DERBY DATE Oct02 Sep07 Aug02 Jun15 Jul08 (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 4.00 15% 5.80    
6  COLD AS HELL Oct21 Mar24 Mar12 Feb25 Feb05 (lukas wayn)ASMUSSEN J 120 5.00 10% 9.50    
7  FRIAR LAURENCE Sep29 Sep05 Jun25 May29 Apr26 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00    
8  SWING SHIFT (GB) Oct25 Nov06 Aug17 Jul02 Apr02 (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
 
CD-4   11/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Dream Supreme Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YOUR SO SILLEA Oct26 Sep30 Jun30 May13 Apr15 (sims a)LANERIE J 122 5.00    
2  LAST LEAF Oct07 Sep07 Jul23 May29 Apr29 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 13% 6.50    
3  FIRE ON TIME Oct07 Sep16 Jul07 May29 May12 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00    
4  LITTLE PRANKSTER Oct12 Aug30 Jul30 Jun24 Jun03 (bauer a)VELAZQUEZ R 120 1.80 21% 3.70    
5  WICKED HALO Oct07 Sep16 Jul23 Jun17 May06 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.20 37% 1.70    
6  ROYAL COUNTY Oct20 Aug06 Jun26 May22 Jan12 (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 120 20.00    
 
CD-5   11/11/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RENFREW Sep27         (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TURF ROCKET Sep13 Jul29 May13     (o'dwyer jer)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
3  BOYNE VALLEY         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
SCR  TWO SIP SALLY Oct19 Sep09       (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50    
5  SERENE WATERS         (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
SCR  SHARPER GAL Aug05         (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
7  TAMMY LYNN Oct06 Sep02       (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 48% 1.10    
8  HAMBLE         (mccarthy micha)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00    
9  DESTINY STAR Aug03         (hamm timothy)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00 ★    
10  SHORE WAR Oct19 Aug06       (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 5.00    
SCR  WALK STREET Aug20         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
12  TWIRL AROUND Oct06         (foley greg)VELAZQUEZ R 119 4.00 25% 3.10    
13  SPEIGHTFUL MISS Jun03 May01       (servis c)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
SCR  BARAYE Nov10 Sep02 Apr19     (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 4.00    
SCR  HOW SOON IS NOW Sep27         (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
SCR  GOLD DEL MAR Oct27 Oct06 Sep20 Sep03 Jul23 (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 119 20.00    
 
CD-6   11/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 3:31
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FASTER         (miller darr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
2  STINGER BEE Oct26         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 ★    
SCR  GOOGOL JOKE Oct13         (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 4.00    
SCR  EXTRA HALO Oct03 Aug19       (granitz ant)PEDROZA MARCELINO 119 12.00    
5  TAPITBOY Sep29 Aug20       (tomlinson a)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
6  JIMMY THE HAT         (catalano way)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
7  SUPERHERO         (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 20% 3.90    
8  STORMIN LOVE Oct14 Sep22 Aug27     (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
9  CRUISIN AND BOOZIN Oct14         (o'neill doug)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
10  LATTA Oct07         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
11  BIRCHTON Oct11         (shirer a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00 13% 6.70    
12  AUGUSTINE RED Oct13 Sep02 Jul30     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 44% 1.30    
SCR  ONE RED CENT Oct20 Oct01 Sep10 Aug27 Jul31 (jazdzewski)RODRIGUEZ A 119 8.00    
14  MIDNIGHT AMBITION         (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   11/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PENSACOLA Oct15 Sep17 Aug20 Jul30 Aug28 (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
2  TUNISIAN SPRING Oct08 Sep10       (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 120 1.60 26% 2.80    
3  UNDERHILL'S TAB Sep16 Mar22 Jan26 Dec29 Apr13 (medina robert)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00    
4  WHERE'S RANDY Apr16 Mar11 Apr09 Mar18 Jan29 (morse randy)LEPAROUX R 120 20.00    
5  EASY ACTION Sep22 Jul29 Apr14 Mar23 Feb18 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 118 2.00 38% 1.60    
6  FLIPARINO Jan01 Oct30 Sep24     (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00    
7  ZAMBEZI Sep13 Jul30 Jun25 May28 May05 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 6.00 8% 11.80    
 
CD-8   11/11/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:33
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  QUEEN LEXI Oct26 Oct11 Sep27 Sep16   (short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 119 30.00    
2  SHE'S ARODEOQUEEN Oct13 Sep14 Jun30     (tomlinson m)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
3  DASH OF LEMON Sep23         (catalano m)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00    
4  CHEYENNE MOON Sep27         (brennan terr)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  EXTREMELY GRUNTLED Oct11 Sep03       (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
6  SISTINA CHAPEL Sep13 Aug18       (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 119 1.80 69% 0.40    
7  SAVE THE MISCHIEF Oct19 Sep28       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00    
8  AMY Z Oct13 Sep21       (von donni)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  MONTCLAIR ROAD Sep21         (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
SCR  PLUMERIA Oct13 Sep10 Aug13     (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 4.50    
11  CALLE REINA Sep30 Aug13 Jul01 May20   (beckman whitw)VELAZQUEZ R 119 5.00 ★    
 
CD-9   11/11/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIWANAKU Jul23 Jun10 May11 Mar26 Nov02 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
2  GALT Sep21 Aug03 May28 Apr29 Mar12 (lobo paulo )TORRES A 121 15.00    
3  ESCAPOLOGIST Oct22 Sep23 Aug13 May14 Apr15 (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  UNINVITED GUEST Oct27 Sep30 Jul02 May11 Apr23 (hartman chris)LANERIE J 121 20.00    
5  ROMAN CENTURIAN Oct14 Sep03 Aug12 Jul23 Jun22 (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 20.00    
SCR  MR. BIG NEWS Sep21 Aug28 Jul30 Jul01   (calhoun wi)SANTANA JR 121 30.00    
7  MAGIC TAP Sep23 Aug13 Jun30 Jun02 Apr16 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.40 36% 1.80    
8  COOKE CREEK Oct14 Jun03 May25 Apr20 Mar12 (o'dwyer jeremia)VELAZQUEZ R 121 5.00    
9  COMMANDPERFORMANCE Oct14 Sep09 Jun22 May25 Apr06 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.50 8% 11.50    
10  CREATIVE MINISTER Oct14 Jul08 May25 Apr20 Mar16 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50 28% 2.60    
 
CD-10   11/11/2023 5940ft TURF RC12 GOOD River City Purse ($300K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:35
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CELLIST Oct13 Sep23 Aug06 Dec17 Oct14 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 121 5.00 5% 19.00    
2  F FIVE Aug28 May13 Apr12 Dec23 Nov19 (lynch a)GRAHAM J 121 12.00    
3  RED RUN Oct13 Sep14 Aug18 Jul08 Jun10 (maker mich)SANTANA JR 121 12.00    
4  ROCKEMPEROR (IRE) Sep09 Aug12 Jun10 May06 Oct08 (brown c)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00 6% 15.40    
5  KITODAN Oct13 Sep09 Aug31 Aug06 Sep05 (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 121 15.00    
6  SMOKIN' T Sep16 Sep02 Aug05 May27 May05 (mcgaughey claud)VELAZQUEZ R 121 6.00 48% 1.10    
7  DOMINICAN PIONEER Sep13 Jul30 Jun04 Apr20 Oct21 (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00    
8  GRAND SONATA Oct07 Aug24 Jul30 Dec26 Nov19 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00    
9  STITCHED Oct07 Sep02 Jul01 Jun01 May04 (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 125 15.00    
10  INJUNCTION Oct13 Aug31 Nov25 Oct01 Aug06 (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
11  SIEGE OF BOSTON Sep03 Aug06 Jun18 May05 Mar25 (toner j)RUIZ JORGE 121 4.50 18% 4.50    
12  HARLAN ESTATE Oct07 Aug31 Aug03 Jul01 Jun03 (beckman whit)RAMOS D 121 15.00    
SCR  ACCREDIT Oct13 Sep23 Sep03 Feb18 Jan27 (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 121 20.00    
SCR  BEATBOX Oct13 Apr07 Feb18 Jan27 Dec17 (devaux cher)TORRES A 121 20.00    
SCR  STREET READY Sep23 Aug31 Dec31 Oct23 Sep01 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 15.00    
 
CD-11   11/11/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOVELAND Oct06         (casse norm)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 29% 2.40    
2  ENIGMATIC Sep02         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 12% 7.10    
3  MURPHY'S GIFT Sep30         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
4  CHARLOTTESAPPROVAL Oct06 Aug18       (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
5  AMERICA'S VOW Oct13 Sep21 Aug06     (hamm timothy)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
6  I'M A MESS Oct11 Sep07       (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
7  CLASS ACT Sep21         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
8  HAPPY TALK Oct15         (lukas way)TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  GENETICS Oct13 Sep03 Aug13     (mott i)VELAZQUEZ R 119 3.50 25% 3.00    
10  CARARRA Oct13 Sep21 Aug26     (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 10% 8.90    
11  HER BEST FRIEND Jul09         (medina robert)MORALES EDGAR 119 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.