Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Churchill Downs
Friday - November 03, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CD-1   WIN (4/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/5)-(4/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/5)-(4/1/5)-(4/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/5)-(7/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/1/5)-(7/8)-(6/7/3/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (7/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/8)-(7/5/2/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/8)-(7/5/2/8)-(7/5/2/8) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (7/8)-(6/7/3/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/8)-(6/7/3/1)-(6/3/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/7/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/7/3/1)-(6/7/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/7/3/1)-(6/7/3/1)-(6/7/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/7/3/1)-(6/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/7/3/1)-(6/3/1)-(5/4/6/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/1)-(6/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/1)-(6/3/1)-(6/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/3/1)-(5/4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/3/1)-(5/4/6/2)-(2/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/4/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/6/2)-(5/4/7/6/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/4/6/2)-(5/4/7/6/2)-(5/4/7/6/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/4/6/2)-(2/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (5/4/6/2)-(2/7)-(3/2/5/6) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-6   WIN (2/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/7)-(2/7) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/7)-(3/2/5/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/7)-(3/2/5/6)-(1/9/12/7/5) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
CD-7   WIN (3/2/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/5/6)-(3/2/5/10/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/2/5/6)-(3/2/5/10/6)-(3/2/5/10/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/2/5/6)-(1/9/12/7/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/2/5/6)-(1/9/12/7/5)-(6/7/1/2/8) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-8   WIN (1/9/12/7/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/9/12/7/5)-(1/9/12/7/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/9/12/7/5)-(1/9/12/7/5)-(1/9/12/7/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/9/12/7/5)-(6/7/1/2/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/9/12/7/5)-(6/7/1/2/8)-(6/5/10) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-9   WIN (6/7/1/2/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/7/1/2/8)-(6/7/1/2/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/7/1/2/8)-(6/7/1/2/8)-(6/7/1/2/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/7/1/2/8)-(6/5/10) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-10   WIN (6/5/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/10)-(6/5/10) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/10)-(6/5/10)-(6/5/10) 6 $0.50 $3.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CD-1   11/03/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RANDELLO Sep27 Sep02 Jun23 May27 Apr13 (sharp joe)QUINONEZ ALONSO 121 2.50 11% 7.80    
SCR  MY BARILEY Oct13 Sep17 May26 Apr21 Mar10 (leonard geo)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 3.00    
ELI Jun29 Jun16 May19 Apr29 Mar23 (macias adolfo)BEJARANO R 121 8.00    
DEVOTED TO YOU Oct04 Sep20 Aug24 Jul20 Jun24 (alessi ja)CORREA L 121 4.50 62% 0.60    
FERRYBOAT Sep29 Sep01 Jul19 Jul01 Jun15 (miller jero)PETERSON FERRIN 121 5.00 5% 19.00    
KHOZAN'S SUCCESS Oct13 Sep29 Sep13 Aug05 May25 (hill f)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50    
SILVESTRE Oct13 Sep28 Sep02 Jul14 Jun14 (cambray igna)CRUZ JUAN 121 12.00    
 
CD-2   11/03/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BATTLE BORN Oct15 Sep24 Sep02 Aug01 Apr22 (king l)TORRES A 124 8.00    
GUADALAJARA Oct12 Sep24 Jul30 Feb18 Jan21 (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 4.00    
PACIFIC STATES Mar04 Jan21 Jan06 Nov05 Sep30 (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 122 4.50    
RATE CONFIRMATION Aug28 Jul22 Jun16 May03 Mar24 (foley greg)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.00    
TAMASHI Oct12 Sep08       (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 4.50    
GABBYSONHOLIDAY Jun04         (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 124 6.00    
BUEHLER'S DAY OFF Oct02 Sep08 Oct06 Sep28 Aug28 (fosdick stev)RAMOS D 124 5.00 71% 0.40    
RAVEN'S NEST Oct12 Sep10 Jan28 Jan05 Dec09 (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-3   11/03/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SENOR JOBIM Sep29 Sep04 Aug13 Jul22 Feb12 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
TIZ OF THEE Aug28 Jul23 Jun10 Mar17 Feb09 (hancock dana)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 15.00    
LEADER OF MEN Oct13 Jan27 Jan13 Dec17 Oct27 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
SOARING BIRD Oct02 Sep22 Sep07 Jul21 Jun23 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00    
MINE OWN STAR Sep27 Sep14 Aug27 Jul30 Jun24 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 113 15.00    
TIGER DAD Oct13 Aug26 Jul19 Jun28 Jun09 (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.50 54% 0.90    
WIND OF CHANGE (BRZ) Oct01 Aug13 Jun30 May14 Dec31 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 120 2.00 14% 6.30    
TREASURY Sep30 Jul19 Jul01 Mar25 Feb11 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 10.00    
 
CD-4   11/03/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:37
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FANNIE AND FREDDIE Sep16 Jul30 Jun22 May05 Feb12 (stall albe)HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
SKRATCH KAT Oct18 Sep22 Jul23 Jul16 Jun03 (bauer phi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 2.50    
ICE ORCHID Sep22 Aug13 Jul07 Mar12 Feb04 (ortiz joh)LEPAROUX R 123 1.80 20% 3.90    
JUNGLE JUICE (IRE) Sep29 Jul08 Jul01 May27 May12 (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 15.00    
SOUL OF AN ANGEL Sep29 Sep16 Aug06 Jul08 Jun24 (james gerald)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 12.00    
DISTINCTLYPOSSIBLE Jul22 May14 Apr14 Feb26 May20 (brown chad)CORRALES GERARDO 121 1.40 52% 0.90    
 
CD-5   11/03/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LIFFEY Oct03         (stidham mi)CORRALES GERARDO 121 5.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of VICTRESS by INCLUDE)
DEVIL BLUE DRESS Oct07         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of YOU CRACK ME UP by SLEW CITY SLEW)
GATHER (ARG) Oct08 Aug18       (arnold ge)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of ONE TOO MANY by NUMEROUS)
LEAFLET Sep22 Aug08       (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 4.00 9% 10.70    
  (by BLAME out of LONG LEAF by PROUD CITIZEN)
HAPPY CHARGER Sep22 Aug01       (pessin l)LANERIE J 121 2.50 60% 0.70    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of HAPPY WEEK by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SMASHING Oct07         (stidham mic)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of BEAR ALL by KITALPHA)
TAKE TIME TO DREAM Oct07 Sep15 Aug18     (falcone robert)CONNER TYLER 121 3.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of MAGESTIC STINGER by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
RITA'S ONTHE BEACH Oct08 Sep03 Aug01     (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00    
  (by SKY KINGDOM out of LAC DU PRINTEMPS by MEADOWLAKE)
UPSWELL Sep24         (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 12.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of UPHOLDER by HENNY HUGHES)
10  CAUSE I'M WILD Sep24         (morse ran)LEPAROUX R 121 20.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of WILD POPPY by EL PRADO (IRE))
 
CD-6   11/03/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($141K) 3 F PT- 3:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MORNIN' BOSS Oct03 Sep07 Aug31 Aug10 Jul16 (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 111 20.00    
SASSY NATURE Oct06 Sep01 Jul28 Jun11 May03 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 122 2.50 41% 1.40    
SCR  L J'S EMMA Oct06 Sep02 Aug12 Jul16 Jun02 (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 122 3.50    
SCR  LITTLE PRANKSTER Oct12 Aug30 Jul30 Jun24 Jun03 (bauer phil)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.00    
STONE SILENT Oct06 Aug12 Jul13 Jun24 Apr14 (asmussen s)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50    
ERNA Aug31 Jul16 Jun15 May17 Mar12 (matejka pav)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00    
REDIFINED Aug12 Jun03 Mar29 Nov05 Oct08 (lovell mi)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00 28% 2.60    
JILL JITTERBUG Sep18 Sep02 Aug07 Jul05 Apr29 (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00    
 
CD-7   11/03/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CHURNING BERNI         (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 15.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of ABUNDANT FLURRY by MIDSHIPMAN)
BANG BANG FURY Sep16         (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.50 28% 2.50    
  (by VIOLENCE out of READY REPLY by MORE THAN READY)
WEST OMAHA Sep21         (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 119 2.00 36% 1.80    
  (by WEST COAST out of BIRTHDAY BASH by SWING AND MISS)
VIABLE         (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by CURLIN out of RELEVANT by HOLD YOUR PEACE)
LITE IT UP LOUIE Oct15 Sep09       (maker j)GRAHAM J 119 4.00 14% 6.30    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of FLAT OUT GITTIN IT by FLAT OUT)
FUN LOVING Oct11 Sep02 Aug13     (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of FRIVOLOUS by FOOLISH PLEASURE)
SOCIAL AFFAIR Sep03 Jul07       (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of ROAMING by QUALITY ROAD)
HEY OLIVIA         (pitts helen)TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SHE'S A GYPSY by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
PUN INTENDED         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00    
  (by CURLIN out of KELLY'S HUMOR by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
10  PULA Oct11 Aug26       (bauer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of CONQUEST SUPERSTEP by SUPER SAVER)
 
CD-8   11/03/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WORK ORDER Jan20         (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00 51% 1.00    
SEEKING UNITY Oct22 Oct08 Jun03 May06 Apr01 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
TIM TAL Sep22 May03 Apr13 Mar11 Feb11 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.50    
FOREVER COOL Sep24 Aug28 Jul30 Jul02 Jun04 (scherer marianne)BEJARANO R 120 15.00    
AUTO GLIDE Aug29 Jun27 May25 May06 Apr01 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SEAS OF NORMANDY Sep24 Apr08 Mar11 Feb18 Jan28 (jones la)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 15.00    
LUPO'S LEGACY Aug20 Jul31 Jul07 Jun10 Jun01 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 12.00 6% 16.50    
FUNNY UNCLE Oct19 Sep16 Aug13 Jul08 May06 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
A LA CARTE Oct07 Aug19 Jul22 Jun01 Apr28 (diodoro rob)QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 4.50 12% 7.30    
10  IGNITIS May21 Apr23 Apr01 Mar05 Feb10 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 12.00    
11  NIGHT EFFECT Sep24 Jun30 Jun02 May06 Apr01 (mott riley)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
12  NATURAL HARBOR Sep25 Feb25 Dec16 Nov03 Oct13 (walden wil)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 7% 13.30    
SCR  TIMELY PROSPECT Aug23 Jul18 Jun15 May25 Apr27 (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 120 12.00    
 
CD-9   11/03/2023 5280ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOWBOUTDEMAPPLES Sep13 Jul22 Jun25 Jun02 May07 (damato phil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 5.00 6% 15.20    
I'M SO SORRY Oct07 Sep18 Sep01 Jul26 May27 (maker michael )CONNER TYLER 123 4.00 5% 19.00    
ZAWISH Oct07 Sep10 May05 Jul23 Jul02 (pitts hele)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00    
LADY HIDEAWAY Sep15 Aug06 Jul02 Jun04 Apr16 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 10.00    
NAVY GOAT Sep17 Mar11 Jan07 Nov19 Sep14 (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
PERHAPS TONIGHT (IRE) Sep17 Aug12 Jun17 May27 Mar15 (drexler marti)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 35% 1.90    
FANCY MARTINI Sep15 Aug06 Jul01 May18 Mar02 (sharp joe)GRAHAM J 123 3.00 30% 2.40    
EXCELERINA (IRE) Apr09 Mar11 Feb06     (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
SWEETS MAKER Jul14 Jun18 May18 Mar23 Feb25 (foley greg)MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00    
10  AALIYAH EZRI Sep03 Aug11 Jul14 Jun21 May07 (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00    
SCR  THISNAMEISOKAY Oct07 Sep09 Aug12 Jul22 Jun24 (cooper steve)ROCCO S 123 8.00    
SCR  TAKNTOTHECLEANERS Aug10 Jul01 May29 Mar10 Dec28 (west w)ACHARD ALEX 121 10.00    
SCR  PRESENT MOMENT (IRE) Oct09 Sep07 Jul08 Jun08 Apr23 (beckman wh)RAMOS D 121 8.00    
SCR  WHITE LILACS Sep22 Aug31 Aug12 Jul22 Jun12 (pino mich)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 12.00    
SCR  FRAGRANT Sep20 Aug06 Jul06 May29 May08 (reed r)MCKEE J 121 4.00    
SCR  TWO ITEM SAVER Oct06 Aug05 Sep25     (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 1.60    
 
CD-10   11/03/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LONG CROW Oct11 Sep20 Aug26 Aug04 Jun24 (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 121 20.00    
TRIGGER HAPPY Sep15 Jul08 Jun15 Jun02 May12 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
SCR  PHILHARMONIC Oct02 Jun23 Jun01 Oct14 Aug20 (zito nicholas)MARTIN MATTIE 111 20.00    
SKATE TO HEAVEN Oct04 Aug10 Jul08 Jun10 Jul04 (walden wil)CORRALES GERARDO 121 6.00    
SANT' ANTIMO Oct11 Sep20 Aug26 Jul31 Jun29 (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 6.00 27% 2.80    
INEXORABLE Oct11 Sep14 Jul30 Sep25 Jul16 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 2.50 34% 2.00    
MASTER GAME Oct11 Sep20 Jul21 Jun22 May11 (forster t)GRAHAM J 121 4.00    
JEDREK Aug18 Jul19 Jun02 Apr30 Mar31 (hill f)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 15.00    
SCR  PIGALLE Jul22 Jun24 Jun01 Mar16 Feb16 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 115 3.00    
10  MUCHO MOJO Sep10 Aug27 Aug04 Jul14 May24 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 121 12.00 11% 8.30    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.