Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 22, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/3/1/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/1/8)-(4/3/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/1/8)-(4/3/1/8)-(4/3/1/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/1/8)-(5/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/3/1/8)-(5/2)-(6/2/3/9) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/2)-(5/2/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (5/2)-(5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (5/2)-(6/2/3/9) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (5/2)-(6/2/3/9)-(1/7/10/4/9) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/2/3/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/3/9)-(6/2/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/3/9)-(6/2/3/9)-(6/2/3/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/3/9)-(1/7/10/4/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3/9)-(1/7/10/4/9)-(5/4/9/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/7/10/4/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/7/10/4/9)-(1/7/10/4/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/7/10/4/9)-(1/7/10/4/9)-(1/7/10/4/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/7/10/4/9)-(5/4/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/7/10/4/9)-(5/4/9/1)-(6/2/10/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/4/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/9/1)-(5/4/9/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/9/1)-(5/4/9/1)-(5/4/9/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/9/1)-(6/2/10/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/4/9/1)-(6/2/10/4)-(6/9/7/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-6   WIN (6/2/10/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/10/4)-(6/2/10/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/2/10/4)-(6/2/10/7/4)-(6/2/10/7/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/2/10/4)-(6/9/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/2/10/4)-(6/9/7/4)-(9/3/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (6/9/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/9/7/4)-(6/9/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/9/7/4)-(6/9/7/4)-(6/9/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/9/7/4)-(9/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/9/7/4)-(9/3/7)-(14/2/13/10/9) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/3/7)-(9/3/7/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (9/3/7)-(9/3/7/2)-(9/3/7/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (9/3/7)-(14/2/13/10/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-9   WIN (14/2/13/10/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (14/2/13/10/9)-(14/2/13/10/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (14/2/13/10/9)-(14/2/13/10/9)-(14/2/13/10/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/22/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VALIANT PRAISE Nov04 May04 Apr21 Apr02 Mar05 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 11% 8.20    
2  COLLECT A LIL Feb24         (davis ch)RODRIGUEZ A 122 8.00    
3  MAMBA OUT Oct22 Sep14 Jul29 Jul08 Jun18 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 14% 5.90    
4  DAISY JONES Sep27         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 4.00 44% 1.30    
5  SQUASH BLOSSOM Jul07 Jun01       (ward dean)MACHADO LUAN 124 12.00    
6  LIL TOWN SIS Nov04 Aug27 Jun16 May26 Apr19 (lovell michell)ASHTON GAVIN 124 4.00    
7  SEVENTEENSEVITYSIX Oct30 Sep14 Aug22 Aug01 Jul12 (jarvis kathy)BEJARANO R 122 20.00    
8  WILLADEAN Sep12 Aug23 Jul20 Jul03 May11 (phillips terry)MOJICA O 122 6.00 9% 9.90    
 
CD-2   11/22/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EL FRANCO Nov02 Oct08 Sep10 Aug20 Apr01 (combs bentley)GARCIA MARTIN 120 20.00    
2  FIRE BRYAN Nov01 Oct16 Oct06 Sep20 Aug29 (delacruz m)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  G T FIVE HUNDRED Oct08 Aug30 Jul13 May28 May04 (engler j)SANTANA JR 118 6.00 ★    
4  CATIPARI Oct19 Jun17       (navarrete)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 20.00    
5  AIR COMBAT Jan08 Dec11 Nov11 Sep30 Aug14 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 73% 0.40    
SCR  TAKE THE CHARGE Oct24 Sep30 Aug13 Jul13 Jun10 (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 120 3.00    
SCR  HASTINGS SUNRISE Oct08 Sep17 Aug16     (west m)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.50    
8  TRIGGER HAPPY Nov03 Sep15 Jul08 Jun15 Jun02 (garcia gena)BURNHAM MATILDA 113 8.00    
 
CD-3   11/22/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AWAY FROM HOME Oct25 Sep24 Jan13 Nov18 Oct16 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 5.00    
2  ACTIVE DUTY (FR) Oct06 Sep15 Aug18 Aug05 Jun10 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 4.00 31% 2.20    
3  WE WILL CONQUER Nov01 May29       (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 8% 11.30    
4  BEAUMONT RED Nov01         (desormeaux)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
5  EGYPTIAN KING Oct25 Oct02 Oct19 Sep21   (glyshaw tim)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00    
6  EMPIRE'S BEST Oct09 Dec10 Oct21     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00 31% 2.20    
7  VIGANO Nov01 Oct02 Apr08 Mar03 Apr16 (zito p)BEJARANO R 124 12.00    
8  MY SANCTUARY Oct21 Sep10 Aug12 Jan07 Nov26 (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00    
9  DR KRINGLE Oct06 Sep15 Aug24 Jul16 Jun25 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 5.00 6% 15.20    
SCR  CAFE RACER Oct06 Jun10 Jan06 Nov27   (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50    
 
CD-4   11/22/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEL AMI Jun02 May07 Mar25 Feb18 Jan07 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 121 5.00 42% 1.40    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of ALMINA by MACHO UNO)
SCR  NOW THAT ICAN ROCK Oct25 Sep30 Aug27 Jun22 May21 (michael brian)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 6.00    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of WESTSIDE SINGER by GONE WEST)
3  BE THERE Nov04 Oct26 Sep04 Aug13 Jun24 (zito p)BEJARANO R 124 15.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of TIN TYPE GAL by TAPIT)
4  FUNSTRUCK Oct31 Sep29       (olivo k)MCKEE J 121 30.00 7% 13.10    
  (by UNIFIED out of HI SUGAR by JUMP START)
5  MOHEGAN         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 124 10.00    
  (by MOHAYMEN out of SUPER PHOEBE by MALABAR GOLD)
SCR  QUALITY WEST         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of CARA MARIE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
7  ELEGANT TRIP Sep30 Sep02 Aug12     (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 121 6.00 18% 4.60    
  (by TOURIST out of NATIVE TALENT by A.P. INDY)
8  ARCHIE THE GIZA Oct06 Sep21 Aug01 May28 May04 (medina robert)SAEZ LUIS 124 8.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of GLORIA S by TAPIT)
9  CROSSING Nov08 Oct25 Sep10 Aug27 Aug01 (hill f)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of DREAMIN BIG by STUTZ BLACKHAWK)
10  ATHENS MOON Sep30 Sep09 Jul07 May21   (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 8.00 12% 7.60    
  (by NYQUIST out of GASP by TINAJERO)
11  STONKS Sep10 Jul29 Jun09 May19 Apr09 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.50    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of HOW UNUSUAL by UNUSUAL HEAT)
12  MAIN LINE CIPHER May04 Mar31       (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of MY PHILLY GIRL by EMPIRE MAKER)
SCR  REMARKABLE MO Oct27         (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 121 5.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of REMARKABLE MOON by LEMON DROP KID)
 
CD-5   11/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEVOTED TO YOU Nov03 Oct04 Sep20 Aug24 Jul20 (vance thom)MICHEL MICKAELLE 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  DROP IT Oct30 Sep01 Aug12 Jul26 Jul01 (edwards willia)ELLIOTT JANE 120 20.00    
3  RISK PROFILE Oct11 Sep17 Aug04 Jun24 May19 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 120 3.50    
4  WELLMAN Oct01 Jul11 May23 May08 Apr15 (reed r)MCKEE J 120 6.00 25% 3.00    
5  UPSTRIKER Oct19 Sep29 Aug27 Jun30 May25 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 25% 3.00    
6  PALACE KITTEN Nov05 Oct13 Aug27 Jul15 Jun15 (o'dwyer jeremiah)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.50    
7  STEINBECK Nov01 Sep29 Jul22 Jul09 May12 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 10.00    
8  SPEIGHT AND MALICE Oct19 Sep07 Jul20 Jun30 Jun04 (caramori c)VILLARREAL OSCAR 110 15.00    
9  MACHO ROCCO Sep16 Sep02 Aug16 Aug06 Jul12 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 120 8.00 20% 4.00    
 
CD-6   11/22/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 2 F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SHE'S A SAINT Oct11 Sep09       (dunn step)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
2  STANDOUTSENSATION Oct25 Sep27 Aug28 Aug01   (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 3.50 32% 2.20    
3  VINO FROM ERNIES Nov02 Oct12       (colebrook ben)ACHARD ALEX 119 20.00    
4  SHOW ME THE CANDY Oct11 Sep10       (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  MOTHER FREEDOM Oct25         (hamilton )HERNANDEZ J 119 30.00    
6  BUSINESS AS USUAL Oct25 Sep13       (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 32% 2.20    
7  MONEY WORKS Oct25         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 4.50 ★    
8  AVALON GIRL         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
SCR  MY FAVORITE GIRL Oct29 Sep30 Sep14     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
10  SAVANNAMARIE Oct27 Sep03 Jul22 Jun16   (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00 10% 8.80    
11  BROUGHTY FERRY Oct27 Aug31       (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
12  CORKAGE FEE Oct19 Sep23       (mccarthy m)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
 
CD-7   11/22/2023 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PASS LINE Nov02 Oct12 Sep17 Aug19 Jul22 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 20.00    
2  SUPREMELY Nov02 Aug26 Jul31 Jun29 Jun10 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.00    
3  BORN FLAWLESS Oct28 Sep27 Sep14 Aug20 Jul31 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
4  CHANCE Oct12 Sep17 Jul21 Jun14 Dec16 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  ROCKING ROCKET Apr14 Apr01 Mar17 Feb25 Jan29 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
6  ATTACHE Nov05 Oct12 Sep24 Sep16 Aug04 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 120 2.00 43% 1.30    
7  DR. PERRY Aug17 Jul07 Jun17 Apr01 Nov25 (joseph saffie )CONNER TYLER 120 12.00 12% 7.10    
8  AIRBORNE ELITE Oct15 Sep14 Aug18     (reed r)MCKEE J 118 10.00    
9  OLLIEMEISTER Jan15 Dec18 Nov24 Oct09 Sep17 (shirer m)SANTANA JR 120 3.50 22% 3.60    
 
CD-8   11/22/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NAPA CANDY Sep18 Aug14 Jul02 Jun03 Apr15 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 120 6.00    
2  LET'S BE CLEAR Nov04 Aug16 Jul08 Jun14 Mar31 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 4.50 ★    
3  AUNT BECCA Oct12 Jun11 Apr22 Mar10 Feb01 (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TAKE A STAND Jul08 Jun11 May05 Mar11 Nov25 (oliver )DE CRUZ 120 10.00    
5  MORE THAN VOWS Oct28 Sep16 Nov13 Sep23 Jul30 (lynch a)BEJARANO R 120 10.00    
6  WILLOW BEND Oct14 Jul22 May17 Apr01 Mar10 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
7  ZAWISH Nov03 Oct07 Sep10 May05 Jul23 (pitts hele)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  UNSOLVED MYSTERY Mar18 Feb24 Jan26 Dec30 Nov13 (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00    
9  JOKE SISI (CHI) Sep01 Jun30 Jun03     (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 3.00 69% 0.50    
SCR  NAUGHTY LOTTIE Mar03 Feb11 Dec30 Nov19 Oct08 (desormeau)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
 
CD-9   11/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEBT PAID Oct13 Sep20       (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of PRISONER'S DILEMMA by BLAME)
2  MOHAWK RIVER Oct29         (baker james)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50 13% 6.90    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of REMEDY by CREATIVE CAUSE)
3  COUNTY JUDGE         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
  (by MITOLE out of THREE D FLAG by SUPER SAVER)
SCR  FEAR AND LOATHING Oct24         (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of SALLY POLLOCK HIGH by SENOR SWINGER)
5  WECALLEMFUNCOUPONS Oct11 Sep20       (englehart)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of ONLY BY THE NIGHT by TALE OF THE CAT)
6  ADRIFT         (wojc)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 20.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of BERNADETTA by BERNARDINI)
7  STRADIVARIAN Sep30 Aug13       (forster grant)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of FULL SWING by VERRAZANO)
SCR  GAGLIARDI         (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of LISTEN A. P. by A.P. INDY)
9  MACKVILLE         (lynch a)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of DYNAMIC JUSTICE by LANTANA MOB)
10  SALMING Oct14         (caramori ca)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.50 9% 10.30    
  (by BERNARDINI out of READY TO TANGO by MORE THAN READY)
11  RUNAWAY JOKE Oct18 Sep07       (heitzman )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of QUIVERY by VIOLENCE)
SCR  YAQUI VALLEY Aug04 Jul29 Jul03 Jun04   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of OBREGON by FOREST WILDCAT)
13  BEAR RIVER Nov09 Oct07 Sep10 Aug24   (desormeaux)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 12% 7.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of SIXTYFIVENORTH by MIDSHIPMAN)
14  RUN JALEN RUN Oct29 Sep29       (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.00 45% 1.20    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ANALYZE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
15  MOR ZIP         (miller da)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of ZIPPY SPEED by CITY ZIP)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.