Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - November 05, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/4)-(5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/4)-(3/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/1/4)-(3/1/4)-(3/1/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/4)-(3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/4)-(3/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4)-(3/1/5)-(9/3/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/5)-(3/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/5)-(3/1/5)-(3/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/5)-(9/3/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/5)-(9/3/2)-(10/5/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-4   WIN (9/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/3/2)-(9/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/3/2)-(9/3/2)-(9/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (9/3/2)-(10/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (9/3/2)-(10/5/3)-(8/4/2/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (10/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/5/3)-(10/5/4/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/5/3)-(10/5/4/2/3)-(10/5/4/2/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (10/5/3)-(8/4/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/5/3)-(8/4/2/6)-(7/4/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (8/4/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/2/6)-(8/4/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/2/6)-(8/4/2/6)-(8/4/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/4/2/6)-(7/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/4/2/6)-(7/4/3)-(4/11/6/10) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (7/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/3)-(7/4/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/4/3)-(7/4/2/3)-(7/4/2/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (7/4/3)-(4/11/6/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/3)-(4/11/6/10)-(4/8/10/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (4/11/6/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/11/6/10)-(4/11/6/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/11/6/10)-(4/11/6/10)-(4/11/6/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/11/6/10)-(4/8/10/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-9   WIN (4/8/10/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/8/10/2)-(4/8/10/3/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/8/10/2)-(4/8/10/3/2)-(4/8/10/3/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/05/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDEN LAKE         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 31% 2.20    
2  BELLA SKYE Oct06         (radosevi)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00    
3  BUMP IN THE NIGHT Sep30         (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
4  LATE NITE LIZZIE Oct07 Sep07       (stidham mi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 11% 8.20    
5  CRY IF I WANT TO Sep27         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 2.50 35% 1.90    
6  REDHEADEDSTRANGER Oct21 Aug20 May12     (nesbitt amy)ORTIZ ALVIN 119 15.00    
SCR  ISA LEI Sep27         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00    
8  AUTISM COMPASSION Oct27 Sep20 Aug01     (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00    
 
CD-2   11/05/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NYQUICK Apr02 Mar11       (cox brad )TORRES A 121 4.00 17% 4.80    
  (by NYQUIST out of OLIVIA'S GREATDANE by GHOSTZAPPER)
2  CHIRON Aug12 Jul02 Jun04 May14 Apr01 (estvanko richa)ELLIOTT JANE 124 6.00    
  (by PROTONICO out of DEEDS NOT WORDS by STREET SENSE)
3  MULLION Aug28         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.00 37% 1.70    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of BROOCH by HALO)
4  WICKED AGAIN Oct08 Sep10 Aug04 Apr08 Mar02 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 13% 6.50    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of JUST WICKED by TAPIT)
5  BEARINGS Sep23 Dec03       (mott william )GARCIA MARTIN 121 5.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of STEADY COURSE by OLD TRIESTE)
6  SPIELMAN Sep21 Aug19 Nov26 Oct30 Oct01 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 121 4.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SASSY IMAGE by BROKEN VOW)
7  ARTWELL Apr15 Mar11       (danner kel)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of NOT TAKEN by ARCH)
 
CD-3   11/05/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDCREST Oct02 Sep13 Aug01 May27 May07 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 120 4.00 23% 3.30    
2  LITTLE DIXIE Sep29 Aug19 Jun11 Apr23 Mar03 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00    
3  PIGALLE Jul22 Jun24 Jun01 Mar16 Feb16 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 43% 1.30    
4  CENTER STAGE Oct10 Aug19 Jul15 May20 Apr23 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
5  JACKIE'S LOVE Oct12 Sep01 Aug11 Jul20 Jun29 (butcher james)AYALA ISAIAS 121 12.00 10% 9.30    
6  FORTUNE BOUND Jul27 Jun24 Apr19 Mar25 Feb15 (sims a)MACHADO LUAN 121 12.00    
7  CHICA DE ORO Oct10 Aug28 Jul11 May29 Apr27 (tomlinson michael )GRAHAM J 118 3.50    
 
CD-4   11/05/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 2 ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  J T'S IMAGINATION Oct01 Aug31 Jul31     (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
2  SMOOTHDINI Sep29         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  LET'S GO MARK Oct07 Aug13 Jun24 May03 Apr13 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 30% 2.30    
4  DUNPHY Oct19 Oct07 Aug31 Aug13 Jul22 (ennis john)GRAHAM J 118 6.00    
5  STORMQUIST Oct07 Sep20 May18     (claire alexis)LANERIE J 120 3.50    
6  NUEVO AMANECER Sep16 Aug30 Aug13 Jul21 Jun23 (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 120 20.00    
SCR  HAM SANDWICH Oct14 Sep30 Aug31 Aug13 Jul15 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00    
SCR  FAMILY FACTOR Oct26 Sep12 Jun16 Apr20   (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00    
9  HEY JOE JOE Oct13 Oct01 Aug31 Aug12 Jun22 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.50 35% 1.90    
 
CD-5   11/05/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRACE AND GLORY         (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of ONWARD TO GLORY by HARD SPUN)
2  FREEBURN         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 8.00 ★    
  (by MITOLE out of FIREFOOT by TAPIZAR)
3  ROUND THE TOWN Jun11 May04       (servis john )TORRES A 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of JEANNE'S SPEIGHT by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
4  HALINA'S FORTE         (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 119 5.00 ★    
  (by MITOLE out of LUNARLADY by YES IT'S TRUE)
5  MISCHIEVOUSNESS Sep16         (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 29% 2.40    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of WILD FOR LOVE by NOT FOR LOVE)
6  ROUTE SIXTY SIX         (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of FLUTTERBY by CONGRATS)
7  AZTEC EMPRESS         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of ADELE DAZEEM by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
8  BEE BRANCH         (ortiz ale)ASHTON GAVIN 119 20.00    
  (by DOUBLE IRISH out of KOUSA by INTO MISCHIEF)
9  ABUNDANT LIFE Oct15 Sep09       (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of CALISTOGA by CLAIM)
10  SILVER ROSE Sep27         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 1.60 48% 1.10    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of PURE SILVER by MISSION IMPAZIBLE)
 
CD-6   11/05/2023 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($150K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEIZE THE NIGHT Sep30 Aug13 Jul02 Jun11 Apr22 (cunningha)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00    
2  SKYRO Sep30 Jan28 Dec15 Oct23 Sep01 (lynch a)GRAHAM J 121 6.00 12% 7.50    
3  HOZIER Oct13 Sep02 Aug05 Jul01 Jun01 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 125 6.00    
4  BIG DREAMING Aug31 Aug05 Nov20 Jun11 Feb19 (catalano )LEPAROUX R 121 4.00 21% 3.70    
5  GRAY'S FABLE Oct13 Sep23 Sep02 Aug05 Jun01 (lynch bria)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 12.00    
6  CHURCHTOWN Sep02 Jul23 May04 Apr01 Dec26 (attfield rog)GEROUX FLORENT 121 15.00 7% 14.30    
7  OCEAN ATLANTIQUE Oct13 Aug31 Aug05 Jun10 May06 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
8  WINFROMWITHIN Sep21 Feb04 Dec31 Oct15 Sep05 (delgado )SANTANA JR 121 3.50 40% 1.50    
9  TIZ THE BOMB Oct13 Aug05 Jun17 May20 Apr22 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00    
 
CD-7   11/05/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ONE COOL DUDE Oct11 Sep22 Aug17 Jul14 Dec30 (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 120 8.00    
2  SPYCRAFT Oct19 Sep13 Aug19 Jul09 May23 (sharp joe)TORRES A 120 5.00 ★    
3  PALACE KITTEN Oct13 Aug27 Jul15 Jun15 May04 (o'dwyer j)TORRES A 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  SAMURAI PRINCE Sep29 Aug27 Aug19 Jul15 Jun07 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 6.00 8% 10.90    
SCR  FRIAR LAURENCE Sep29 Sep05 Jun25 May29 Apr26 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00    
6  APPEAL DENIED Jun29 May21 Apr21 Feb12 Nov25 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50    
7  NIFTY Aug13 Jul14 May12 Apr20 Mar24 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 120 3.00 63% 0.60    
8  COYOTE ROAD Oct02 Aug16 Jun22 May05 Apr11 (hernandez rey)MOJICA O 120 20.00    
9  STONEVICIOUS Oct12 Sep22 Aug06 May19 May11 (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 122 8.00    
 
CD-8   11/05/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  AIR COMBAT Jan08 Dec11 Nov11 Sep30 Aug14 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 2.50    
SCR  GOLD LUCK Oct12 Sep14 Jul13 Jun25 May28 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
SCR  HAPPY HOUR BOBBY Aug26 Aug06 Jul27 Jul15 Jun18 (gonzalez rein)CANNON DECLAN 120 30.00    
4  UNDER OATH Sep29 May14 Apr16 Mar04 Aug24 (pletcher tod)TORRES A 120 4.50 54% 0.90    
5  STAND FOR FREEDOM Oct14 Sep16 Aug26 Jul31 Jun10 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 12.00    
6  GREYS THE BOY Jul09 Jun04 May03 Mar22 Jan26 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 7% 14.30    
7  CALL ME MIDNIGHT Oct21 Sep29 Jul30 Jul01 Jun04 (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 20.00    
8  LEAGUE OF LEGENDS Jun29 Apr28 Apr16 Apr02 Mar19 (fires h)COURT K 120 20.00    
9  RIDER'S SPECIAL Sep14 Jul31 Jun29 Jun10 May21 (asmussen )TORRES A 120 8.00    
10  ATTACHE Oct12 Sep24 Sep16 Aug04 Jul14 (mcgee paul)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 6% 14.50    
11  BROKEN RIB Sep29 Aug04 Jul01 May25 Feb12 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00 12% 7.30    
 
CD-9   11/05/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OSCAR AWARD Oct12 Sep17 Aug26 Dec02 Oct29 (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 118 20.00    
2  CLEAR THE AIR May14 Apr08 Mar04 Feb11 Jan06 (walden william)ACHARD ALEX 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
3  KING CURLIN Oct12 Sep03 Aug18 Jul16 May28 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 5.00 ★    
4  BABA VOSS Sep07 Jul23 Jun22 Aug21   (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 37% 1.70    
5  IDRATHERBEBLESSED Sep28 Sep10 Aug18 Jul23 Jun29 (hartman chris)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
6  READ ON May13 Apr21 Mar31 Jan27 Nov13 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 15.00    
7  KARMA DIRECTOR Aug02 Jul12       (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 118 30.00    
8  OK BOOMER Mar04 Jan14 Dec10     (pletcher )LEPAROUX R 118 3.50 24% 3.10    
SCR  EVENT DETAIL Feb25 Jan27 Jan01 Nov19   (lobo paul)TORRES A 118 15.00    
10  MIRANDA RIGHTS Sep07 Jul09 Jun17 Mar04 Feb11 (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00 15% 5.50    
11  STONEMONT REUNION Apr15 Feb24 Jan20 Dec29   (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00    
12  TALL BOY Oct12 Aug05 Jul09 Jun10 May06 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 118 5.00    
SCR  SHERLOCK'S JEWEL Sep03 Aug19 Jun03 Apr20 Sep14 (mcgaughey)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 20.00    
SCR  GATLINBURG Oct12 Sep02 Aug02 Jun24 Apr22 (asmussen stev)GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00    
SCR  EL AHIJADO Oct19 Jun29 May20 Apr19 Mar30 (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 114 30.00    
SCR  MIDNIGHT RISING Jul01 May17 Apr28 Mar25 Mar02 (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.