Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Saturday - September 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (10/9/2/3/13) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-2   Win (6/5/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-3   Win (7/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-4   Win (6/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-5   Win (4/3/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-6   Win (3/4/2/8/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-7   Win (2/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-8   Win (6/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-9   Win (7/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-10   Win (1/9/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-11   Win (12/11/4/2/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   09/23/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SPIRIT IN THE MIST (FR) Aug12         (danner kelsey)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
BUCHU Aug20 Jul30 Jun16     (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.50 13% 6.90    
PACE'S TWO SENSE         (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
BA DEE YAH Aug13         (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
DASH OF LEMON         (catalano m)ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00    
SCR  YAMMY YAMMY BELLA Sep07 Aug20 Aug05 Jul06   (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00    
WITHOUT CAUSE         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
HIGH FASHION KATE Aug20 Aug04       (minnock g)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
LUZ DIVINA Sep02         (hamm timothy)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 29% 2.50    
10  WEIGHTED AVERAGE Aug13         (brown chad )TORRES A 119 3.00 34% 1.90    
11  MOSHINE         (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
12  SHE IS INVINCIBLE (GB)         (maker michael )TORRES A 114 15.00    
13  AARALYN Sep02 Aug11       (hiles jeff)SANTANA JR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  STEPHANIESWARRIOR Aug31 Jul19 Jul06 Jun08   (capps a)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
SCR  CRYSTAL SYMPHONY Aug13 May26       (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00    
SCR  I'M A MESS Sep07         (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
 
CD-2   09/23/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 F PT- 6:28
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  QUIMICHIS         (gutierrez fa)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
TAKE CHARGE BABE         (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00    
ART QUEEN         (ortiz al)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00    
LADY OF DEVON Aug13 Jul16       (margolis stephen )COHEN DAVID 119 5.00    
BIKINI BOTTOM Aug01         (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 6% 15.90    
SWEET MIMI Aug05 Jul07       (cox h)TORRES A 119 4.00 62% 0.60    
WAMPUS KITTEN         (casse norm)SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
BACKWOODS BARBIE Aug31         (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 119 4.50 5% 19.00    
THE BIG BANSHEE Aug18         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00    
10  CORKAGE FEE         (mccarthy micha)TORRES A 114 10.00    
 
CD-3   09/23/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($75K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JR'S GIFT Sep10 Aug22 Jul19 Jun10 May13 (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 122 6.00    
WESLAN Sep04 Aug20 Jul30 Jul09 Jun10 (wainwright )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 5% 17.90    
BRIGHT SPARK Sep11 Apr19 Feb25 Feb04 Dec31 (flint bernard )BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00    
ESCAPOLOGIST Aug13 May14 Apr15 Mar25 Mar01 (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00 10% 8.70    
ROUTE RUNNER Sep03 Aug02 Jun30 May02 Apr01 (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 5.00    
SCR  QUATERNION Aug13 Jul09 Jun10 May06 Mar18 (lynch a)BEJARANO R 118 3.50    
B SUDD Aug20 Jan07 Dec10 Nov17 Apr23 (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 2.50 58% 0.70    
 
CD-4   09/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:26
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EVIE'S ENCORE Jul23 Jun10 May13     (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.00    
WEATHER MAP         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 121 5.00    
SHA GIRL Oct15 Sep05 Jul29 May26   (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
LADY FREE WILL         (minnock g)MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00    
THE PRINCESS SAYS Jul31 Jun02 May14 Apr12 Mar16 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.50 23% 3.30    
AUNT JO Sep07 Jul31       (blair jordan)BEJARANO R 121 3.50 47% 1.10    
SOULFUL TARA Aug28 Jul31 May26     (miller f)COURT K 121 10.00    
GOING TO TOWN Mar21         (pitts helen)GRAHAM J 121 15.00    
ENGLISH CHARM Aug28 Jul31 Jun23 Nov16   (wilkes r)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00    
 
CD-5   09/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:57
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PERFECT UPSTART May11 Mar10 Jan13 Nov16 Sep21 (barrett roddina )ELLIOTT JANE 121 20.00    
YOU AIN'T POPPN         (walsh bren)SANTANA JR 121 8.00    
FURIOUS ANGER Mar11         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 6.00 11% 7.80    
SHORTSTOP Jan06         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 51% 1.00    
SCR  SAHALAT Aug19         (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 124 1.60    
SCR  BOPTROT         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 12.00    
SCR  NOT SO HOLY Aug19         (lynch a)BEJARANO R 121 5.00    
BEN FRANKLIN         (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 121 8.00    
BEARINGS Dec03         (mott i)GRAHAM J 121 6.00 10% 9.30    
 
CD-6   09/23/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NATIVE THUNDER May27 May04 Mar25 Mar09 Dec26 (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 30.00    
ACCREDIT Sep03 Feb18 Jan27 Dec17 Dec01 (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.00 9% 9.60    
STREET READY Aug31 Dec31 Oct23 Sep01 Jul31 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 4.00 37% 1.70    
CELLIST Aug06 Dec17 Oct14 Aug13 Jul27 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 122 2.50 23% 3.40    
TWO BIRDS Sep03 Apr20 Mar25 Feb22 Feb03 (hiles jeff)SANTANA JR 122 30.00    
GRAY'S FABLE Sep02 Aug05 Jun01 May04 Apr01 (lynch brian )LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 4.50    
VINTAGE PRINT Aug20 Jul15 May11 Oct23 Sep28 (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
WAR CAMPAIGN Aug06 Jul02 May25 Apr20 Mar16 (sims a)LANERIE J 122 6.00 5% 18.00    
DROPPIN G'S Sep08 Aug06 Jun30 Jan01 Dec21 (antonuik jerr)PETERSON FERRIN 122 30.00    
10  BRITAIN'S KITTEN Jul08 May27 Apr28 Mar11 Feb11 (williamson )LEPAROUX R 122 20.00    
SCR  PINE KNOLL Sep07 Jul20 Jul07 Jun15 Mar16 (medina robe)TORRES A 122 20.00    
SCR  WARRIOR JOHNY Sep02 Jul02 Jun04 Nov17 Sep24 (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 122 3.50    
SCR  SEARCH ENGINE Aug12 May25 Feb28 Feb11 Dec11 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.00    
 
CD-7   09/23/2023 6270ft DIRT RC11 FAST Bourbon Trail Purse ($300K) 3 ALL PT- 9:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MANCIATA D'ORO Aug15 Jul03 May25     (cox h)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 4.00 25% 3.10    
SLIP MAHONEY Aug26 Jul23 May13 Apr08 Mar04 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 2.50 35% 1.90    
DENINGTON Aug26 Aug13 Jul08 Jun11 May20 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 118 3.50    
SHIRL'S BEE         (stewart dal)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
OSCAR ECLIPSE Aug13 Jul09 Jun04 Aug27 Jul24 (lynch brian)TORRES A 118 3.00 16% 5.30    
SCR  LINCOLN HIGHWAY Sep17 Aug05 Jun24 May28 Apr08 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
BIG DATA Sep02 Jul23 Jun04 May11 Apr22 (lerman michael)JARAMILLO E 118 5.00    
 
CD-8   09/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC11 FAST Harrods Creek Purse ($300K) 3 ALL PT- 9:39
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BOURBON BASH Sep02 Aug05 Jul22 Jun25 Jun03 (lukas wayne)TORRES A 118 6.00    
DETERMINEDLY Jul23 Jun04 Apr07 Feb18 Jan21 (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
LOYAL COMPANY Aug13 Jul08 Jun03 Apr28 Mar11 (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.00 17% 4.80    
BOUNCER Aug12 Jul08 Jun10 Mar29 Oct07 (casse mark)SANTANA JR 118 5.00    
MOUNT UP Aug20 Jul23 Jun22 Oct01   (pletcher a)JARAMILLO E 118 3.50 27% 2.70    
EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS Aug05 Jun22 May06 Feb11   (cox h)TORRES A 118 2.00 34% 1.90    
SCR  PRAETORIAN GUARD Aug22 Jul04 Jun14 May17 Apr18 (linder jr)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
 
CD-9   09/23/2023 5610ft DIRT RC11 FAST Seneca Overnight Purse ($175K) 3 F PT-10:11
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAXED Aug19 Jul08 May19 Apr01 Feb25 (morse randy)TORRES A 122 2.50 34% 1.90    
SABRA TUFF Aug19 Jul13 Jun17 May05 Nov04 (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 6.00    
SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY Jul22 Jun29 Jun02 Apr01 Mar05 (shirer mat)SANTANA JR 118 5.00    
POBLANO Aug04 Nov26 Oct22     (walsh brend)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00    
CHAMPAGNE CALLING Aug06 Jun17 May05 Feb11 Jan07 (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00    
FUN AND FEISTY Apr16 Mar04 Oct30 Oct07 Sep17 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
XIGERA Aug04 Jul01 Jun02 Nov04 Oct07 (bauer phili)LEPAROUX R 118 4.50 37% 1.70    
SCR  NOMADIC PRIDE Aug18 Jun29 May29 Mar25 Feb24 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
 
CD-10   09/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC12 FAST Dogwood Purse ($300K) 3 F PT-10:42
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
YESTERNIGHT Aug22 Jul14 Jun03 Apr22   (schultz lindsay)GRAHAM J 118 3.00 33% 2.00    
METAPHYSICAL Aug25 Jul01 Jun02 May05 Apr01 (hiles jeff)SANTANA JR 118 10.00    
FLAMAND Aug13 Jul08 Jun17 Apr28 Apr02 (lopez elias)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 5.00    
B G WARRIOR Sep02 Jun11 May19 May03 Apr01 (andrade hugo)RAMOS D 120 6.00    
LADY RADLER Aug07 Jun18 May13 Apr22 Dec03 (campbell michael)CASTANON L 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
SANTA FE GOLD Aug13 Jul01 May29 Apr22 Mar25 (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00    
TWICE AS SWEET Jul16 Jun14 Apr01 Feb04 Dec26 (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00    
NORAH G Aug27 Aug05 Jan21 Dec31 Dec10 (west patricia)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 12.00 10% 9.10    
ALEXA LOU Aug26 Nov12 Oct08     (stewart dal)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00 33% 2.10    
 
CD-11   09/23/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT-11:10
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FINE COTTON Aug18 Jul14 May25 May04 Mar11 (pessin neil )LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 20.00    
CALL AGAIN Aug28 May28       (mott i)GRAHAM J 120 4.50 7% 12.70    
SHOPLIFTER Aug18 Jun29 May29 Apr16 Feb25 (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00    
BRU NA BOINNE Aug05 Jun29 Mar25 Feb17 Jan28 (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00 13% 6.70    
CHIQUITA MOSCA Aug28 Jul08 Jun21 Jun03 May12 (bahena ism)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00    
SCR  GRAND ENTRANCE Oct20 Sep18       (pletcher a)JARAMILLO E 118 6.00    
AMBER CASCADE Jan21 Dec31 Nov20 Oct22   (devaux cher)TORRES A 118 8.00    
HER LADYSHIP Jul14 May27 Apr21 Feb26 Jan08 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00    
LEXA (FR) Aug05 Jul05 May24 Apr13 Dec22 (beckman whitwort)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
10  DAWNY Aug05 Jul14 May25 Apr08 Mar26 (jones larr)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
11  FOREVER AFTER ALL Jun24 May27 May05 Apr21 Oct15 (stall m)LANERIE J 122 4.00 23% 3.30    
12  LET'S DUET May12 Apr07 Mar04 Feb17 Jan28 (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 122 5.00 32% 2.10    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.