Handicappers' Racing Form

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Ellis Park
Sunday - June 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (4/3/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-2   Win (5/6/1/10/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-3   Win (5/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-4   Win (3/6/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-5   Win (3/4/8/2/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-6   Win (1/5/7/14/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-7   Win (1/9/3/5/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-8   Win (10/2/8/4/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-9   Win (2/3/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-10   Win (6/12/10/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
ELP-1   06/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($75K) Purse ($78K) 3 ALL PT- 1:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SINGLE RULER May29 Mar25 Feb18 Jan21 Dec26 (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 118 3.50 12% 7.50    
GIROOVIN Apr16 Mar30 Feb28 Jan29 Dec17 (garcia genar)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
IDRATHERBEBLESSED May28 Apr26 Mar12 Jan29 Dec18 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 5.00 25% 3.00    
STREET SWAGG Apr12 Mar16 Nov03 Sep21   (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 26% 2.80    
HURRY HURRY Mar16 Feb17       (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00 10% 8.90    
FIGHT FIERCELY May04 Apr12 Mar12 Feb10 Jan11 (sharp joe)GRAHAM J 118 6.00    
SCR  RECKER POINT May04 Apr16 Mar12 Feb19 Jan14 (hartman chris)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 2.50    
REINVEST Apr15 Mar22 Feb04     (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
 
ELP-2   06/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($63K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:20
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CHECK ENGINE LIGHT Apr21 Mar04 Feb05 Dec04 Jul31 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 12% 7.40    
STEEL RACER Sep29         (medina rober)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
NURSEKRINGLEDANCES May18 Apr15 Nov10 Sep22 Aug28 (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
OVERINDULGENCE         (casse w)ROSARIO JOEL 118 8.00    
LITTLE SISTER SUE May29 Mar31 Feb25 Jan21 Dec22 (garcia genaro)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 4.50 33% 2.00    
HAMMERDONHAPPINESS May19 Mar05       (vanden berg)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00 32% 2.20    
SCR  BARSTOOL BABE Apr22 Apr07 Mar11 Feb11 Dec31 (moquett rona)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
SPICY ITALIAN May20         (catalano wayne )MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
BEST COAST         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00    
10  HEART HEADED WOMAN May05 Apr12       (drury thomas )PETERSON FERRIN 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
11  TAKE SHAPE May18 Sep30       (arnold george )LANDEROS CHRIS 118 12.00    
 
ELP-3   06/11/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:48
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ANEJO May14 Apr06 Feb11 Jan05 Dec01 (o'neill doug)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 2.50    
PROMISE KEEPER May06 Aug20 May13 Mar26 Feb12 (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 15% 5.80    
SEIZE THE NIGHT Apr22 Apr07 Mar16 Jan14 Dec16 (lukas way)TORRES A 124 4.00    
ELEVEN CENTRAL Apr15 Nov13 Sep30 Aug13 Jul09 (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50    
DASH ATTACK May11 Apr28 Apr08 May14 Apr16 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 122 5.00 36% 1.70    
DECISION MAKER May03 Mar26 Mar04 Jan21 Nov12 (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00 13% 6.40    
 
ELP-4   06/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 WET FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:16
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DOGWOODSMILLIEJANE May02 Feb15 Dec02 Nov20 Oct19 (taylor brent)GILLIGAN JACK 124 15.00    
LILY'S CREED May19 Apr27 Mar24 Feb28 Feb09 (scherer marianne)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
HONEYCOMB Mar30 Feb23 Feb03 Dec15 Oct17 (wong jonathan)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 4.00 39% 1.60    
EAST SHORE May25 Apr07 Nov27 Oct30 Oct02 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 4.00    
RED JEWEL Aug26 Aug05       (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 118 12.00 19% 4.30    
LADY WITH A CAUSE Apr20 Mar16 Feb16 Jan20 Dec31 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 21% 3.70    
LITTLE DIXIE Apr23 Mar03 Jan21     (moquett rona)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  OATH OF ALLEGIANCE May19 Feb17 Jan20 Dec31 Nov19 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50    
FAST GAL May18 May02 Jan25 Jan05 Jul17 (porter michael)COURT K 118 15.00    
 
ELP-5   06/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:46
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EMPIRE OF MY OWN Apr08 Mar02 Aug26 Aug14 Jul04 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 5.00    
CRACKALACKING May13 Mar25 Mar02 Jan13 Oct07 (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER Apr30 Apr01 Mar10 Feb20 Dec17 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 123 4.00 64% 0.60    
BEAUXS ARTES May25 May04 Mar23 Feb16 Apr28 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.00 10% 8.60    
COEXIST May27 May12 Apr19 Aug14   (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 120 30.00 5% 19.00    
SPARKLE OF HOPE Sep23 Jul03 Jun08 May30 May15 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 3.50    
HALF A CHANCE Apr07 Mar09 Jul14 Jun05   (ward wesle)RODRIGUEZ A 113 4.00    
BALL GOWN May27 May03 Mar29 Feb01 Jan18 (miller kenny)GILLIGAN JACK 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
COLORATURA May19 Oct01 Sep14 Aug26 Jun17 (caramori caio)GUTIERREZ REYLU 125 10.00    
 
ELP-6   06/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:14
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CREATE TROUBLE Oct30 Sep17       (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 26% 2.90    
SCARAB Apr28         (danner kelsey)SAEZ LUIS 125 12.00    
ACCIDENT May28 Apr08 Mar04 Feb10 Jan21 (short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
TIMETOMAKEMISCHIEF Apr29         (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
MAPPER Apr29 Mar25       (arnold georg)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 25% 3.10    
SMILE MON May14 Dec31 Nov26     (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00    
REDEMPTION TIME May14 Apr14 Oct16 Sep18 Jul31 (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 12.00 17% 4.70    
KOMOREBINO OMOIDE (JPN) May05 Apr08       (diodoro rob)TORRES A 118 5.00    
SCR  ATLANTIC DANCER May02 Mar23 Mar02 Feb04 Jan07 (zito p)BEJARANO R 125 12.00    
SCR  TRUMPTASTIC May14 Apr15 Feb11 Jan14   (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 125 5.00    
11  SINGLE DOT YAHT Sep21         (drury jr)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
12  OVER AND OLLIE         (stall albert )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
SCR  EARL OF DASSEL May14 Apr14 Mar18 Feb18 Jan21 (pessin l)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
14  GLEN AIRY May14 Feb24 Nov05     (sims philip )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 15.00 8% 11.20    
SCR  UNWRAPPED May21         (wong jonathan)NAVAS YOEL 111 20.00    
SCR  TOP SECRET May21 Nov09       (asmussen steven )ROSARIO JOEL 125 8.00    
 
ELP-7   06/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:43
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LOVED May12 Apr21 Mar13     (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 126 0.80 38% 1.60    
CURRENT CLIMATE Apr15 Mar16 Jan25 Jan12 Nov21 (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00    
MY KENTUCKY GIRL May13 Apr15 Mar16 Jan04 Nov21 (wong jonath)TORRES A 122 15.00 5% 17.90    
SCR  STREET JAM May13 Apr15 Mar24 Jan26 Dec14 (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 122 30.00    
TAKE A STAND May05 Mar11 Nov25 Oct21 Sep24 (oliver vi)DE CRUZ 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LADY PUCHI May18 Apr12 Nov25 Oct28 Oct14 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 122 20.00    
SCR  NOT SO CLOSE May05 Mar11 Feb12 Jul29   (casse w)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50    
LISETTE May27 Mar12 Jan21 Jan14 Dec10 (lukas wayn)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 20.00    
JUBELLA Apr28 Apr07 Feb12 Dec09 Nov02 (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00 34% 1.90    
10  JAG WARRIOR May05 Feb19 Jan28 Nov24 Oct07 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
11  GUANA CAY May27 May05 Mar24 Feb25 Jan19 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 20.00    
12  MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT May14 Apr29 Apr12 Mar24 Feb16 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 115 30.00    
 
ELP-8   06/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Leslie's Lady Overnight Purse ($175K) 3 F PT- 5:11
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
B G WARRIOR May19 May03 Apr01 Mar04 Feb11 (kahles ronald)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 15.00    
UNIFYING May05 Apr08 Mar02 Jan20 Dec31 (mott riley)TORRES A 118 5.00 32% 2.10    
PROMISE OF HOPE May19 Dec26 Dec04 Oct30 Oct07 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SHE'S ON THE ROCKS Apr16 Mar11 Feb01     (gorostieta cirilo)MCKEE J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  POSITANO SUNSET Apr07 Mar04 Feb04 Nov18 Oct16 (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 118 6.00    
TELL ME WHEN May11 Apr14 Jan14 Nov26 Sep30 (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
PADMA May05 Feb04 Jan01 Sep17 Aug17 (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 6.00    
CONDENSATION May05 Apr01 Feb25 Feb11 Jan13 (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50 6% 15.30    
FRIENDLYPERSUASION Oct09 Sep17 Aug10 Jul04   (mccarthy michael)ROSARIO JOEL 118 8.00    
10  TOPSY May19 Mar25 Feb25 Jan07   (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 36% 1.70    
 
ELP-9   06/11/2023 5940ft DIRT RC12 SLOPPY Matt Winn Purse ($400K) 3 ALL PT- 5:40
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DENINGTON May20 Apr15 Mar25 Feb18 Jan21 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
DISARM May06 Apr15 Mar25 Feb19 Aug06 (asmussen steven )ROSARIO JOEL 118 2.00 34% 1.90    
BO CRUZ May06 Mar04 Feb05     (stall m)LANERIE J 118 4.00 23% 3.30    
VERIFYING May06 Apr08 Feb25 Jan14 Nov04 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 18% 4.50    
GO SOLDIER GO May13         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
RAISE CAIN May06 Apr08 Mar04 Jan21 Dec26 (colebrook ben)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 4.00    
KING RUSSELL May06 Apr01 Feb25 Jan28 Dec31 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-10   06/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:09
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MR. THUNDERSTRUCK May25 Apr29 Apr01 Mar11 Feb10 (von donni)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 20.00    
GHOSTLORE Apr07 Mar17 Mar12     (moquett ron)LEPAROUX R 122 20.00    
PRESIDENTIAL May06 Apr22 Mar16 Jan29 May30 (asmussen steve)GEROUX FLORENT 122 10.00    
MAJOR BLUE May29 May06 Apr08 Mar23 Mar11 (lukas way)TORRES A 116 30.00    
ATTA BOY ANTHONY May13 Jan27 Dec31 Nov17 Oct19 (andrade hugo)MARCANO Y 115 50.00    
INTREPID HEART May18 Feb20 Jan21 Dec26 Nov12 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 122 5.00 33% 2.10    
KING'S OVATION May18 Apr23 Feb02 Nov23 Apr20 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00    
ALEJANDRO Apr07 Feb18 Dec11 Nov02 Sep30 (asmussen steven )ROSARIO JOEL 122 4.00 7% 13.10    
BULLSEYE BUN May05 Apr15 Mar16 Feb22 Jan21 (green troy)BEJARANO R 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  MAHAAMEL (IRE) May19 Feb24 Feb11 Jan08 Nov27 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50 14% 6.40    
11  FLAGS UP May25 May06 Mar30 Mar04 Feb10 (baker jame)RODRIGUEZ A 117 20.00    
12  EL ORIENTE (CHI) May06         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 26% 2.80    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.