Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - October 31, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/5)-(4/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/7/5)-(4/7/5)-(4/7/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/7/5)-(9/1/5/7/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/7/5)-(9/1/5/7/3)-(2/3/8) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-2   WIN (9/1/5/7/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/1/5/7/3)-(9/1/5/7/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/1/5/7/3)-(9/1/5/7/3)-(9/1/5/7/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/1/5/7/3)-(2/3/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (9/1/5/7/3)-(2/3/8)-(7/8/5/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/8)-(2/3/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/8)-(2/3/8)-(2/3/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/8)-(7/8/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/3/8)-(7/8/5/4)-(10/4/6/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (7/8/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/5/4)-(7/8/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/5/4)-(7/8/5/4)-(7/8/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/8/5/4)-(10/4/6/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/8/5/4)-(10/4/6/1)-(4/8/6/5) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-5   WIN (10/4/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/4/6/1)-(10/4/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/4/6/1)-(10/4/6/1)-(10/4/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (10/4/6/1)-(4/8/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (10/4/6/1)-(4/8/6/5)-(2/1/6/3) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-6   WIN (4/8/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/8/6/5)-(4/8/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/8/6/5)-(4/8/6/5)-(4/8/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/8/6/5)-(2/1/6/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/8/6/5)-(2/1/6/3)-(6/4/9/2) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/1/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/6/3)-(2/1/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/6/3)-(2/1/6/3)-(2/1/6/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1/6/3)-(6/4/9/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/1/6/3)-(6/4/9/2)-(2/6/5/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/4/9/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/9/2)-(6/4/9/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/9/2)-(6/4/9/2)-(6/4/9/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4/9/2)-(2/6/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/4/9/2)-(2/6/5/7)-(1/4/8/9) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-9   WIN (2/6/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/5/7)-(2/6/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/5/7)-(2/6/5/7)-(2/6/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/5/7)-(1/4/8/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-10   WIN (1/4/8/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/8/9)-(1/4/8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/8/9)-(1/4/8/9)-(1/4/8/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   10/31/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEACH BUNNY Sep29 Sep14 Jul27 Jun29   (habeeb j)BEJARANO R 122 4.00    
2  AVALON GIRL Sep19 Jul13 Jun12 Nov22   (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00    
SCR  FOUR THE GIRLS         (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00    
4  MATERIAL WITNESS Sep11 Aug25 Oct28 Sep21 Sep02 (atras rob)TORRES A 124 2.50 43% 1.30    
5  MINK STOLE Sep01 Aug09 Jun29     (arnold georg)MONCADA IRVING 115 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  STARCOURT Sep27 Aug25 Jul05 Jun06 Apr27 (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.50    
7  INVENTING ANNA Sep27 Aug21 Jul21 Jun18 Dec03 (medina ro)TORRES A 124 6.00 14% 5.90    
 
CD-2   10/31/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOWN THE ISLANDS Sep12         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 28% 2.50    
2  BEST DRESSED MAN Sep26 Aug11       (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
3  SUPER SMOOTH Sep25         (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  FINANCIAL WHIZ Oct07 Sep09 Aug17 Jul27 Jun19 (hamilton sarah)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00    
5  AMERICAN CITY Sep04 Aug17 May18 May09 Apr25 (desormeaux )CONCEPCION AXEL 119 3.50 5% 19.00    
6  MORALLY Oct16 Sep22 Aug29 Aug15   (hiles a)LANERIE J 119 4.50    
7  NOBLE REIGN Oct01 Sep10       (milligan )TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  BEGFORFORGIVENESS Sep29 Sep11       (cano mu)TORRES A 119 20.00    
9  VSOP Sep29 Sep04       (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.00 44% 1.30    
 
CD-3   10/31/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INTO PLEASURE         (lynch bria)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 10.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SETTLE 'N SPEIGHT by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
2  HOP SING Dec02         (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 48% 1.10    
  (by CURLIN out of SWEET ASSASSIN by TAPIT)
3  TOP GUN ROCKET Oct05 Aug24 Jul14 May27 May04 (mott riley)TORRES A 122 2.50 24% 3.20    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ROCKET TWENTYONE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
SCR  PARTYVICIOUS Feb24         (west m)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of BUSY BEV by NOT FOR LOVE)
SCR  LORD NARCISSE         (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 12.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of MALIBU DRIVE by MALIBU MOON)
6  I'M MCDREAMY Sep22         (ortiz alex)VAZQUEZ A 122 3.50    
  (by HARD SPUN out of NIGHT WITCH by INDIAN CHARLIE)
7  MOMENTUM FILES Sep15 Aug18       (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 124 5.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of MOLTO VITA by CARSON CITY)
8  ROWDY RIOT Sep22 Aug29 Jul28 Aug20   (morse l)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of AUGUSTA QUEEN by FORESTRY)
 
CD-4   10/31/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  END OF INNOCENCE Sep19 Jul29 Jun19 May23 Sep21 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 4.00    
2  FANCY FASCINATOR Sep27 Jul28 Jun15 May10 Mar15 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
3  EDGE OF TOWN Sep20 Jul27 Jun26 May16 Dec23 (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 12.00    
4  TROTTER Aug07 Jul16 Jun08 May09 Apr14 (west aaron)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  SISTER ELLA Oct16 Sep19 Aug05 May31 May04 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  ANTIQUE SILVER Sep02 Aug11 Jul27 Jun15 Apr12 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
7  GOURMET Sep20 Jul28 Jul14 Jun05 May12 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 42% 1.40    
8  HOUSE OF MAGIC Sep19 Feb16 Jan12 Nov23 Oct21 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 3.00 35% 1.90    
 
CD-5   10/31/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIVER RIDGE Oct09 Jul13 Jun09 May04 Apr13 (cline robe)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TRIPLE TREA Oct10 Sep21 Jan18 Dec23 Aug20 (walsh brenda)MONCADA IRVING 111 6.00    
SCR  CRUISIN AND BOOZIN May11 Apr14 Mar08 Jan31 Dec21 (jarvis kathy)MOJICA JR 118 20.00    
4  PROTEGE Sep18 Aug10 Jul15 Jul15 Apr14 (hancock j)LEPAROUX R 121 3.50 25% 3.10    
SCR  READIER Sep29 Aug31 Aug03 Jun01 Apr30 (lightner mar)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 6.00    
6  PROFESSOR HIGGINS Oct13 Sep26 Sep19 Aug22 Aug04 (poulos dee)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00 13% 6.50    
SCR  MR MCGREGOR Sep26 Sep14 Aug26 Jul21 Jun20 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 12.00    
8  ROCKETEIGHTYEIGHT Sep28 Aug25 Jul06 May24 Apr20 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
9  JAMMIN JUSTICE Oct18 Sep18 Aug22 Aug05 Jun18 (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00    
10  RAGING Sep27 Aug18 Feb23 Jan06 Dec16 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 32% 2.10    
11  COACH CAMPBELL Sep04 Aug15 Jul27 Jul06 Jun08 (desormeaux )CONCEPCION AXEL 118 12.00    
 
CD-6   10/31/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MOUNT KISCO Aug31 Aug11 Jul22 Oct22 Sep22 (howell jessi)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 30.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of PRINCESS KAREN by STAY THIRSTY)
SCR  PADIDDLE Sep29 Sep01 Aug03 Jun23 Jun02 (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 124 3.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of BELLE CHAUSSEE by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
3  EL MAGNIFICO Apr06 Feb17 Jan13 Dec23 Nov25 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 6.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of SECRET JEWEL by BERNARDINI)
4  GOOD LORD Sep22 Aug10 Dec23 Nov24 Oct29 (amoss thomas)TORRES A 120 4.00 39% 1.50    
  (by LORD NELSON out of MALIBU PARTY by HARD SPUN)
5  BIG SALT LICK Oct05 Aug24 Jul07 Jun09   (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of RUBINDY by BERNARDINI)
6  IT'S MY LIFE Oct05 Aug31 Feb10     (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00 16% 5.10    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MORAKAMI by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
7  NYQUIST FREQUENCY Oct05 Nov12 Oct18 Sep17   (blair jor)TORRES A 120 12.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of IS IT GOLD by INDYGO SHINER)
8  TOUR PLAYER Oct05 May27 May04 Apr06   (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 18% 4.50    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of INSHANNITY by GHOSTZAPPER)
9  MAGNIFICENT RAGS Sep15 Aug03 Jun21     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of MAGNIFICENT SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
CD-7   10/31/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRUNCH PUNCH Sep25 Jan26 Dec23 Nov25 Aug19 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.60 30% 2.30    
2  HUNTRESS FOR HIRE Sep15 Aug10 Jun26 May18 Sep21 (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 30% 2.30    
3  CANDY LOVER Sep18 Aug29 Jul27 May23 Apr18 (mcgee pau)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  FLOORED Oct12 Sep07 Jul27 Jun29 May26 (oliver vict)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 20.00    
5  OUR KEEPSAKE Jun05 May16 Apr26 Apr04 Mar15 (lukas wayn)TORRES A 118 8.00    
6  UNDERCOVER Sep21 Aug26 Jul16 Jun17   (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.00 15% 5.80    
7  JE SUIS RAPIDE Sep25 Sep13 Aug13 Jul07 Jun13 (king l)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
 
CD-8   10/31/2024 5610ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BREEZING ALONG Oct16 Sep05 Jul11 Jul04 Jun06 (meah m)ROMAN A 120 20.00    
2  EMBRACE ME Sep18 Sep01 Aug14 Jul28 Jun30 (rutledge )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MALLEYMOO Sep08 Aug16 Jun20 May17 Oct15 (clement ch)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00    
4  MOVIN' ON UP Aug02 Jun13 Mar23 Mar03 Dec28 (joseph sa)TORRES A 118 3.00 16% 5.10    
SCR  QUEEN LECA (URU) Sep13 Jul27       (lobo paulo)HERNANDEZ J 122 20.00    
6  DREAMING OF MO Oct04 Sep02 Aug08 Jun28 May30 (romans dale)LANERIE J 122 2.50 59% 0.70    
SCR  INFINITE DIAMOND Sep08 Jun20 Jun02 Mar30 Mar02 (biancone p)ASMUSSEN J 122 6.00    
8  SCHOOL DANCE Oct04 Jun02 May03 Apr04 Feb25 (damato philip)VAZQUEZ A 122 15.00    
9  SANCTIFY Oct04 Sep11 Aug24 Aug04 Jun29 (holsapple hutch)GRAHAM J 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  HIDDEN CLASS Oct03 Sep12 Jul31 Jul17 Jun15 (sharp joe)TORRES A 118 20.00    
SCR  DAZZLIN' DICTATOR Oct26 May31 Mar01 Jan05 Dec13 (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 20.00    
SCR  AMBER CASCADE Sep20 Aug10 Jun26 Nov01 Sep23 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
 
CD-9   10/31/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($80K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DYNAMIS (IRE) Sep10 Jul28 Jul10 Jun13 May04 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 15.00    
2  HOLLYWOOD ENDING Jan28 Dec29 Nov24 Oct27   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50 46% 1.20    
3  GAMBLERS TAIL Oct10 Sep14 Jun02 Apr10 Jan09 (jacobson dav)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00    
4  MIKEALICIOUS Aug17 Jul06 Jun14 Apr26 Mar23 (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 118 10.00    
5  BOURBON'S FAULT Sep20 Aug15 Jun30 Dec23 Nov25 (stewart dallas)LANERIE J 118 5.00 7% 12.70    
6  REDEMPTION TIME Sep19 Aug19 Dec30 Nov17 Oct19 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 4.00 16% 5.20    
7  METALHEAD Sep19 Aug12 Jul16     (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  COUNT DRACULA Sep11 May05 Apr20 Mar28 Mar02 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
SCR  CONTEMPLATION Sep25 Aug31 Aug03 Jun26 May21 (stidham m)TORRES A 118 12.00    
SCR  MANDATORY MEETING Sep26 Aug13 Nov25 Oct12 Sep02 (blair jordan)TORRES A 118 15.00    
 
CD-10   10/31/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 5:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LA BUKANA Sep21 Aug03 Jun28     (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  MAX'S REDEMPTION Oct07         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.00    
3  RANCH LIFE Oct13 Sep20       (douaihy miche)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 119 20.00    
4  MISS TIFEYE Oct09 Sep15 Aug25     (baker james)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00 18% 4.70    
SCR  SHANETT         (hamilton sarah)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00    
6  MOR LUCK Sep27 Sep01       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
7  FREE PASSAGE Oct12         (galindo-torres clim)MEZA JJ 119 20.00    
8  DINAHS GIRL Oct10 Sep15       (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 4.50 16% 5.10    
9  JOYFUL PURSUIT         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
10  LOTTA LISSA         (ennis john)MONCADA IRVING 112 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.