Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - September 18, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (7/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00  4 $9.50 $3.50 58%
CD-2   DD (7/4/6)-(7/6/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00  4-6 $15.39 $3.39 28%
CD-3   PK3 (7/4/6)-(7/6/5/1)-(2/3/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00  4-6-2 $20.65 $2.65 15%
CD-6   EXA (4/2/7)-(4/2/6/7) 9 $2.00 $18.00  4-6 $18.98 $0.98 5%
CD-7   WIN (2/6/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00  4 $26.54 $18.54 232%
    EXA (2/6/5/4)-(2/6/5/4) 12 $2.00 $24.00  4-5 $202.88 $178.88 745%
    TRI (2/6/5/4)-(2/6/5/4)-(2/6/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00  4-5-2 $197.01 $185.01 1542%
    DD (4/2/7)-(2/6/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00  4-4 $81.56 $69.56 580%
    PK3 (7/4/1/3)-(4/2/7)-(2/6/5/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00  7-4-4 $161.53 $137.53 573%
CD-8   EXA (10/7/5/3/2)-(10/7/5/3/2) 20 $2.00 $40.00  7-2 $120.96 $80.96 202%
    TRI (10/7/5/3/2)-(10/7/5/3/2)-(10/7/5/3/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00  7-2-10 $96.25 $66.25 221%
    DD (2/6/5/4)-(10/7/5/3/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00  4-7 $68.66 $48.66 243%
    PK3 (4/2/7)-(2/6/5/4)-(10/7/5/3/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00  4-4-7 $116.79 $86.79 289%
CD-9   WIN (8/9/1/6/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00  9 $14.26 $4.26 43%
    PK3 (2/6/5/4)-(10/7/5/3/2)-(8/9/1/6/7) 100 $0.50 $50.00  4-7-9 $145.85 $95.85 192%
    PK4 (4/2/7)-(2/6/5/4)-(10/7/5/3/2)-(8/9/1/6/7) 300 $0.50 $150  3/4-4-7/9-9 $1179 $1029 686%
    PK5 (7/4/1/3)-(4/2/7)-(2/6/5/4)-(10/7/5/3/2)-(8/9/1/6/7) 1200 $0.50 $600  7/8-3/4-4-7/9-9 $2536 $1936 323%
    PK6 (2/8/10/1)-(7/4/1/3)-(4/2/7)-(2/6/5/4)-(10/7/5/3/2)-(8/9/1/6/7) 4800 $0.20 $960  5/8-7/8-3/4-4-7/9-9 $3667 $2707 282%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   09/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:223 :453 :572     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  ALL WEST 3 1 2½ 2nk   1nk 1nk (vance thom)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 5.00 29% 2.50 3.75 W
1  IMPROBABLE STORY 1 2 42½ 43   42½ 2nk (king barr)BEALMEAR C 114 15.00 7.53  
6  SANTA CRUISER 4 3 31 31½   31½ 3.2 (van berg )HERNANDEZ J 121 5.00 6% 16.80 5.97 S
2  GOOD JUJU 2 5 53½ 53¼   53 41½ (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 4.50 1.76  
7  SIR OLLIE 5 4 1½ 1nk   2nk 51½ (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 3.50 44% 1.30 1.63  
SCR  APPEAL DENIED               (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
SCR  BURNINHUNKOFLOVE               (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 121 4.00    
 
CD-2   09/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:211 :441 :563     1:094   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  BRAZEN BOY 6 3 42¼ 31   3½ 1nk (blair jordan)TORRES A 121 3.00 18% 4.50 1.33 W
4  PROTEGE 4 1 32 21   1nk 2nk (hancock j)LEPAROUX R 121 5.00 7.48  
5  DOUBLE YOUR MONEY 5 7 53¾ 43   43 33¾ (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 5% 19.00 11.21 S
1  JAMMIN JUSTICE 1 4 12 11   2nk 44 (murphy conor)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 5% 19.00 33.63  
8  ARTHUR 8 6 88¼ 89¾   88¾ 58¾ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 8.00 11.93  
2  AIR CAV 2 8 76¼ 77¾   68 611½ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 2.52  
7  TANMANCAN 7 5 65¼ 67½   78¼ 712¼ (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.50 50% 1.00 5.13  
3  UNTROUBLED 3 2 22 55   56½ 814 (caramori eduardo)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 31.75  
 
CD-3   09/18/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:234 :473 1:122 1:372   1:44   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  KOLOMIO 2 1 1½ 1½ 1nk 11½ 1¼ (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 122 5.00 65% 0.50 1.06 W
5  CURLINS INCHARGE 5 6 43 31½ 31½ 21½ 2¼ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 4.50 7.09  
3  SIXWILLBERICH 3 3 2½ 2½ 2nk 31½ 33 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 124 10.00 5% 17.60 15.25 S
6  LONG CROW 6 7 810½ 86¾ 84¾ 55 43¼ (corrigan jim)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 6.00 12.09  
7  MAD ADAM 7 5 53 52½ 63¼ 43 54¼ (amoss tho)TORRES A 122 3.50 ★ 4.09  
1  STAR NATION 1 2 79½ 76½ 74¾ 75¼ 65½ (hartlage )BEALMEAR C 115 15.00 5% 19.00 32.25  
8  ICEATUDE 8 8 64½ 64 42½ 65¼ 76½ (navarrete )LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 2.50 6.96  
4  SUMMER IN AIKEN 4 4 31 41½ 52¾ 88¼ 813¾ (pino mich)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 7.70  
 
CD-4   09/18/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:234 :482 1:124 1:38   1:443   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  SIX KINGS 7 4 31 3½ 1nk 11 12½ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 15% 5.70 1.65 W
7  ROCKET NIGHT 6 5 52½ 52¼ 42¾ 32½ 22½ (van berg )TORRES A 120 15.00 11.67  
2  MOVING TO KENTUCKY 2 1 2½ 2nk 2nk 21 32¾ (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 124 3.50 55% 0.80 2.00 S
3  VINCITA 3 3 84½ 94½ 75¼ 54½ 44 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 120 4.00 ★ 5.44  
10  ULTIMATE STRIKE 9 9 73½ 73¼ 64¾ 43 54 (santamaria)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 15.00 5% 19.00 28.50  
4  GOTTA HAVE DREAMS 4 7 96 84¼ 85¼ 64½ 64½ (shorter a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 20.00 6.28  
1  PHOTO OP 1 2 1½ 1nk 3.2 75 712 (hiles ric)BEALMEAR C 117 10.00 5% 19.00 14.04  
6  DANCING NOAH 5 6 42 42 53¼ 87 814¼ (taylor brent)CASTANON L 120 20.00 83.89  
9  IN THE NUMBERS 8 8 62½ 62¼ 911¼ 914 929¼ (londono genevi)ROCCO S 120 20.00 52.26  
SCR  HIGGINSVILLE               (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 120 2.50    
 
CD-5   09/18/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:23 :46 1:091     1:152   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  SOUND DOCTRINE 7 1 11½ 1½   13½ 15¾ (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00 31% 2.30 0.78 W
9  ALILNALOT 8 3 21½ 2½   23½ 25¾ (santamaria car)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 14.95  
4  EL GUNNER 4 5 41¾ 41½   45½ 310¼ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 27% 2.70 5.92 S
6  PRINTS MONEY 6 2 31½ 31½   35 410¼ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 6.00 13.67  
3  QUARRYMEN 3 7 86¾ 76   57 512¾ (shorter aaron)LANERIE J 118 12.00 5% 19.00 10.11  
5  MIDNIGHT AMBITION 5 6 64¼ 64½   610 620 (rice adam)ORTIZ L 118 3.50 3.80  
1  FORE FLAG 1 8 75¾ 88   816 726¾ (moger jr)BEJARANO R 121 6.00 13% 6.90 15.98  
2  STUNNEM 2 4 52¼ 54   716 827½ (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 20.00 50.00  
SCR  REFUAH               (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 4.00    
 
CD-6   09/18/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:23 :452 1:091     1:214   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  GLOBAL SENSATION 3 7 52¾ 43½   1½ 11½ (cano mu)TORRES A 121 2.00 57% 0.70 1.56 W
6  PURE PANIC 5 3 11½ 12   2½ 21½ (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 ★ 4.17 P
8  SOLIDIFY 7 6 64¼ 66   34½ 35¾ (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 10.00 22.90  
1  BEYOND BEST 1 4 77¼ 713   67 45¾ (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 12.00 4.96  
5  TIMELESS BOUNTY 4 2 21½ 22   45½ 58½ (ocasio osvaldo)ORTIZ L 121 8.00 12.24  
2  GOT THUNDER 2 1 31½ 33   55½ 610¼ (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 5.00 13% 6.80 6.57  
7  TALLAHATCHIEBRIDGE 6 5 42½ 54½   79 711¾ (kenneally eddi)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 5% 19.00 3.70  
SCR  REGAL REY               (antonuik)RODRIGUEZ A 123 8.00    
 
CD-7   09/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:22 :45 :57     1:094   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  CANDY LOVER 4 3 3½ 31½   21½ 1½ (mcgee pau)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 5% 19.00 12.27 W
5  CRAZY CAMI 5 6 62¼ 65½   53 2½ (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 9% 10.40 6.09 P
2  SISTER KISSES 2 1 1nk 11   11½ 3¾ (garcia genar)TORRES A 121 2.50 34% 1.90 3.70 S
1  NURSEKRINGLEDANCES 1 2 41½ 43   42½ 42¾ (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 121 4.50 6.21  
7  IDALOU 7 7 74¾ 78   76½ 54½ (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00 5.24  
3  SOMBRA DORADA 3 4 2nk 21   32 66¼ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 3.34  
6  LITTLE BLAZE 6 5 52 54   65 76¾ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 2.00 23% 3.30 2.92  
 
CD-8   09/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:212 :441 :562     1:09   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  BILLAL 7 1 63¼ 51¼   1½ 1¾ (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 27% 2.70 1.82 W
2  BANJO CHRIS 2 7 53 61½   31½ 2¾ (wismer g)SANTANA JR 120 15.00 5% 19.00 25.95 P
10  SAVE THE TREES 9 3 73¼ 83   62½ 32¼ (maker michael )ORTIZ L 120 3.50 28% 2.60 2.74 S
6  MARKET STREET 6 6 84¾ 73   72¾ 42½ (lukas way)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 15.00 35.09  
3  FINSTER 3 5 21½ 2nk   2½ 53 (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 120 12.00 7% 13.50 5.63  
8  HOW'S UR ATTITUDE 8 2 42 41¼   42 64¼ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 23.07  
5  MR SKYLIGHT 5 9 95 93½   83¾ 76¾ (mott riley)TORRES A 118 5.00 17% 4.90 7.72  
4  NORMANDY HERO 4 4 32 3.2   52 88¼ (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 118 12.00 20.95  
1  BARKSDALE 1 8 11½ 1nk   94¾ 913¾ (walden william)VAZQUEZ A 118 5.00 4.75  
SCR  PURE FORCE               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.50    
 
CD-9   09/18/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 4:54
See original race card.
:233 :464 1:114 1:233   1:353   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  OPTICAL 9 3 1½ 11½ 12 15½ 114 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 3.50 20% 4.00 6.13 W
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of ESPRESSOANDACHECK by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
10  KY DO DECLARE 10 9 3½ 42½ 44 46½ 214 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 2.25  
  (by ACCELERATE out of I DO DECLARE by DECLARATION OF WAR)
3  DUAL INCOME 3 5 71½ 32 22 25½ 315¼ (orseno jos)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00 24.35  
  (by ENTICED out of CAMILLE GAREY by STREET CRY (IRE))
11  REB 11 10 103 106¼ 55½ 58½ 417¼ (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 16.03  
  (by SHANCELOT out of WELL SPUN by HARD SPUN)
5  REAL CONVICTION 5 7 92½ 63½ 32 36½ 518 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00 4.67  
  (by LAOBAN out of CONVOLUTED by DISTORTED HUMOR)
1  GOLDEN ICE 1 2 41 74 78 610½ 621¾ (simms jr)ASHTON GAVIN 119 8.00 13% 6.50 15.90  
  (by KEEN ICE out of YIELDING GOLD by HIGH YIELD)
7  DEPUTY A. P. 7 11 116½ 1111¾ 109¾ 812½ 724 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 119 12.00 5% 19.00 13.72  
  (by HONOR A. P. out of ANGEL SPIRIT by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
8  G. ERIK 8 8 61¼ 85 88½ 913 825½ (von don)GARCIA MARTIN 119 4.00 31% 2.20 8.79  
  (by DIALED IN out of MARSH GIRL by SHANGHAI BOBBY)
6  IL MARCHESSE 6 4 2½ 21½ 67 711½ 926¾ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 5% 19.00 17.11  
  (by HARD SPUN out of SHEAR CLASS by CURLIN)
2  DESPERATE PROPOSAL 2 6 82 96 99½ 1014½ 1027 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 5.13  
  (by GIFT BOX out of TRIUNE by E DUBAI)
4  OUT OF THE CLOUDS 4 1 51¼ 53½ 1111¾ 1117 1133½ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 12.00 22.22  
  (by UNION RAGS out of HOT RENDEZVOUS by MACHO UNO)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.