Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - September 18, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (7/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/6)-(7/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/6)-(7/4/6)-(7/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/6)-(7/6/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/6)-(7/6/5/1)-(2/3/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (7/6/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/5/1)-(7/6/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/5/1)-(7/6/5/1)-(7/6/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/5/1)-(2/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/6/5/1)-(2/3/1)-(2/8/10/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/1)-(2/3/7/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/3/1)-(2/3/7/1)-(2/3/7/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/3/1)-(2/8/10/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/3/1)-(2/8/10/1)-(7/4/1/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (2/8/10/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/10/1)-(2/8/10/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/8/10/1)-(2/8/10/1/3)-(2/8/10/1/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/8/10/1)-(7/4/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/8/10/1)-(7/4/1/3)-(4/2/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (7/4/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/1/3)-(7/4/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/1/3)-(7/4/1/3)-(7/4/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/4/1/3)-(4/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/1/3)-(4/2/7)-(2/6/5/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-6   WIN (4/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/7)-(4/2/6/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/2/7)-(4/2/6/7)-(4/2/6/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/2/7)-(2/6/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2/7)-(2/6/5/4)-(10/7/5/3/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/6/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/5/4)-(2/6/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/5/4)-(2/6/5/4)-(2/6/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/5/4)-(10/7/5/3/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/6/5/4)-(10/7/5/3/2)-(8/9/1/6/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-8   WIN (10/7/5/3/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/7/5/3/2)-(10/7/5/3/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/7/5/3/2)-(10/7/5/3/2)-(10/7/5/3/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/7/5/3/2)-(8/9/1/6/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-9   WIN (8/9/1/6/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/9/1/6/7)-(8/9/1/6/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/9/1/6/7)-(8/9/1/6/7)-(8/9/1/6/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IMPROBABLE STORY Sep06 Aug22 Jul25 Jul10 Jun26 (king barr)BEALMEAR C 114 15.00    
2  GOOD JUJU Aug28 Aug08 Jul28 Jul05 May16 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 4.50    
SCR  APPEAL DENIED Jul15 Dec01 Nov05 Jun29 May21 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
4  ALL WEST Jul20 Jun29 May10 Apr17 Mar09 (vance thom)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 5.00 29% 2.50    
SCR  BURNINHUNKOFLOVE Jun21 May18 Feb16 Jan05 Dec15 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 121 4.00    
6  SANTA CRUISER Apr04 Sep29 Sep17 Aug20 Jul22 (van berg )HERNANDEZ J 121 5.00 6% 16.80    
7  SIR OLLIE Jul29 Jul06 May10 Feb15 Jan28 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 3.50 44% 1.30    
 
CD-2   09/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JAMMIN JUSTICE Aug22 Aug05 Jun18 May29 May08 (murphy conor)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  AIR CAV Aug05 Jun19 Apr26 Mar02 Jan27 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
3  UNTROUBLED Nov22 Oct17 Sep13 Aug18 Jun06 (caramori eduardo)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
4  PROTEGE Aug10 Jul15 Jul15 Apr14 Feb04 (hancock j)LEPAROUX R 121 5.00    
5  DOUBLE YOUR MONEY Aug12 Jul20 Jun13 May01 Mar30 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  BRAZEN BOY Aug10 Jul15 May30 May09 Dec29 (blair jordan)TORRES A 121 3.00 18% 4.50    
7  TANMANCAN Sep03 Jan12       (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.50 50% 1.00    
8  ARTHUR Aug17 Jul29 Jun26 Sep02   (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 8.00    
 
CD-3   09/18/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STAR NATION Aug04 Jun28 Jun12 May24 Apr27 (hartlage )BEALMEAR C 115 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  KOLOMIO Aug23 Aug11 Aug03 Jun29 Mar03 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 122 5.00 65% 0.50    
3  SIXWILLBERICH Aug19 Jul11 Jun19 May26 Dec07 (sims p)PARKER L 124 10.00 5% 17.60    
4  SUMMER IN AIKEN Jul20 Jun12 May01 Feb22 Feb01 (pino mich)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00    
5  CURLINS INCHARGE Jul28 May23 May01 Apr10 Mar02 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 4.50    
6  LONG CROW Sep07 Jul31 Jun23 May02 Apr12 (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 122 6.00    
7  MAD ADAM Aug26 Jul08 Jun10 Mar22 Mar10 (amoss tho)TORRES A 122 3.50 ★    
8  ICEATUDE Aug29 Aug05 Jun20 May30 May09 (navarrete )LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 2.50    
 
CD-4   09/18/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PHOTO OP Aug19 Apr10 Mar22 Feb24 Dec16 (hiles ric)BEALMEAR C 117 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  MOVING TO KENTUCKY Aug10 Apr13       (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 124 3.50 55% 0.80    
3  VINCITA Aug04 Jul11 Jun27 Apr24 Apr07 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 120 4.00 ★    
4  GOTTA HAVE DREAMS Aug26 Jul29 Jun28 Jun06 May04 (shorter a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 20.00    
SCR  HIGGINSVILLE Jul15 Jul05 Jun06 Apr07 Mar09 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 120 2.50    
6  DANCING NOAH Jan11 Dec14 Nov26 Oct29   (taylor brent)CASTANON L 120 20.00    
7  ROCKET NIGHT Aug10 Jun27 Apr13 Mar21 Feb11 (van berg )TORRES A 120 15.00    
8  SIX KINGS Aug24 Aug02 Jun15 May04 Mar30 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 15% 5.70    
9  IN THE NUMBERS Dec09 Oct20       (londono genevi)ROCCO S 120 20.00    
10  ULTIMATE STRIKE Aug26 Aug10 Nov23 Oct26 Sep29 (santamaria)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-5   09/18/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORE FLAG Feb11 Dec26 Dec03 Nov17 Oct09 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 121 6.00 13% 6.90    
2  STUNNEM Mar08 Feb17 Feb08 Nov18 Nov02 (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 20.00    
3  QUARRYMEN Jul21 Jun20 May17 May01 Mar20 (shorter aaron)LANERIE J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  EL GUNNER Aug24 Jul24 Jun28 Jun13 May15 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 27% 2.70    
5  MIDNIGHT AMBITION Aug13 Jul31 Jul23 Jun16 May26 (rice adam)ORTIZ L 118 3.50    
6  PRINTS MONEY Jul15 Jun05 May12 Apr20   (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 6.00    
7  SOUND DOCTRINE Aug05 Jun02 May17 Apr26 Feb19 (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00 31% 2.30    
SCR  REFUAH Jul18 Jul06 Jun14 May09 Apr05 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 4.00    
9  ALILNALOT Aug10 Jul21 Jun05 Sep17 Jul30 (santamaria car)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00    
 
CD-6   09/18/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEYOND BEST Aug06 Jul13 Jun27 May31 May10 (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 12.00    
2  GOT THUNDER Aug18 Aug10 Jul25 Jul18 May11 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 5.00 13% 6.80    
SCR  REGAL REY Aug25 Aug10 Jul27 Jul07 Jun20 (antonuik)RODRIGUEZ A 123 8.00    
4  GLOBAL SENSATION Jul15 Jun27 May25 May10 Mar22 (cano mu)TORRES A 121 2.00 57% 0.70    
5  TIMELESS BOUNTY Sep07 Aug17 Jul15 Jun27 Jun02 (ocasio osvaldo)ORTIZ L 121 8.00    
6  PURE PANIC Aug25 Jun27 Jun02 May10 Apr14 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 ★    
7  TALLAHATCHIEBRIDGE Jul29 Jun29 May26 Apr11 Sep02 (kenneally eddi)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  SOLIDIFY Aug03 Jul15 Jun14 Jun02 May10 (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 10.00    
 
CD-7   09/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NURSEKRINGLEDANCES Aug29 Aug10 Jan10 Dec13 Nov17 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 121 4.50    
2  SISTER KISSES Aug24 Jun19 May11 Mar30 Mar09 (garcia genar)TORRES A 121 2.50 34% 1.90    
3  SOMBRA DORADA Jul29 Jun16 May25     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
4  CANDY LOVER Aug29 Jul27 May23 Apr18 Mar13 (mcgee pau)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  CRAZY CAMI Jun28 May25 Nov02 Oct06 Aug31 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 9% 10.40    
6  LITTLE BLAZE Aug29 Jul14 Jun14 Apr27 Mar16 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 2.00 23% 3.30    
7  IDALOU Aug17 Jun21 Jun02 Feb25 Dec31 (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
 
CD-8   09/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BARKSDALE Aug02 Jul04 Jun08 Apr26 Apr07 (walden william)VAZQUEZ A 118 5.00    
2  BANJO CHRIS Aug15 Jul27 Jun23 Jun05 Mar01 (wismer g)SANTANA JR 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  FINSTER Aug05 Aug08       (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 120 12.00 7% 13.50    
4  NORMANDY HERO Jul04 Jun05 Dec31 Nov25 Oct28 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 118 12.00    
5  MR SKYLIGHT Aug25 Jun17 May18 Apr20 Mar16 (mott riley)TORRES A 118 5.00 17% 4.90    
6  MARKET STREET Aug31 Aug04 Jul26 May18 Apr27 (lukas way)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 15.00    
7  BILLAL Aug04 Jul06 Jun08 May05 Apr06 (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 27% 2.70    
8  HOW'S UR ATTITUDE Jul04 Jun19 May29 May04 Apr13 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
SCR  PURE FORCE Jul26 Jun19 May04     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.50    
10  SAVE THE TREES Aug19 Jul06 Jun09 Apr19   (maker michael )ORTIZ L 120 3.50 28% 2.60    
 
CD-9   09/18/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDEN ICE Aug24         (simms jr)ASHTON GAVIN 119 8.00 13% 6.50    
  (by KEEN ICE out of YIELDING GOLD by HIGH YIELD)
2  DESPERATE PROPOSAL         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
  (by GIFT BOX out of TRIUNE by E DUBAI)
3  DUAL INCOME Aug24         (orseno jos)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
  (by ENTICED out of CAMILLE GAREY by STREET CRY (IRE))
4  OUT OF THE CLOUDS Aug24         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 12.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of HOT RENDEZVOUS by MACHO UNO)
5  REAL CONVICTION Aug10         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of CONVOLUTED by DISTORTED HUMOR)
6  IL MARCHESSE         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SHEAR CLASS by CURLIN)
7  DEPUTY A. P.         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of ANGEL SPIRIT by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
8  G. ERIK Jul29         (von don)GARCIA MARTIN 119 4.00 31% 2.20    
  (by DIALED IN out of MARSH GIRL by SHANGHAI BOBBY)
9  OPTICAL Sep05 Aug19 Jun22     (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 3.50 20% 4.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of ESPRESSOANDACHECK by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
10  KY DO DECLARE Aug31         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 5.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of I DO DECLARE by DECLARATION OF WAR)
11  REB Aug05 Jun19 May09     (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00    
  (by SHANCELOT out of WELL SPUN by HARD SPUN)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.