Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Friday - November 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (6/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00  2 $12.18 $6.18 103%
CD-3   WIN (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00  3 $4.70 $0.70 18%
CD-4   WIN (1/5/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00  5 $13.52 $5.52 69%
    EXA (1/5/7/2)-(1/5/7/2) 12 $2.00 $24.00  5-7 $42.46 $18.46 77%
    TRI (1/5/7/2)-(1/5/7/2)-(1/5/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00  5-7-1 $53.36 $41.36 345%
    DD (7/3)-(1/5/7/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00  3-5 $20.20 $12.20 153%
CD-5   TRI (4/6/3)-(4/6/3)-(4/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00  6-4-3 $5.38 $2.38 79%
    DD (1/5/7/2)-(4/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00  5-6 $25.12 $13.12 109%
    PK3 (7/3)-(1/5/7/2)-(4/6/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00  3-5-6 $20.99 $8.99 75%
CD-8   WIN (3/7/12) 3 $2.00 $6.00  7 $6.80 $0.80 13%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:214 :454 :582     1:113   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  INSIGHTFUL MISS 2 4 66 32½   1½ 12¾ (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 120 3.50 9% 9.70 5.09 W
3  MAHOMEBRED 3 3 11 12   2½ 22¾ (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.00 4.02  
5  LONG BLACK VEIL 5 1 21 22   33½ 35¾ (jarvis kathy)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 17.07  
1  MARKSWOMAN 1 6 53 66½   56½ 46 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 17% 5.00 1.26  
4  ZERO CLICK 4 2 31½ 43½   44½ 58¾ (norris mike)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 39.11  
6  WIKI LIO 6 5 42½ 54   68½ 620¾ (calhoun willia)ASHTON GAVIN 118 2.50 44% 1.30 2.04  
 
CD-2   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:233 :473 1:122     1:253   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  TOO FAST FOR YOU 3 4 21 2½   14 17¾ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 1.28  
6  APRIL CLOVER 5 1 11 1½   24 27¾ (asmussen)SANTANA JR 118 2.50 1.65  
5  WISCO DISCO 4 2 41½ 42   36 39½ (mcentee paul)ASHTON GAVIN 120 4.00 41% 1.40 5.70 S
2  LUCKY LESSON 2 3 55 57   512½ 416 (corrigan jim)ELLIOTT JANE 118 8.00 12.05  
1  FESSY 1 5 31 32   49½ 517½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 20% 4.10 4.83  
SCR  BAYTOWN ANGEL               (mcentee paul)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50    
 
CD-3   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:104     1:234   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  NURSEKRINGLEDANCES 2 1 21 2½   13½ 19 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 122 3.00 19% 4.30 1.35 W
5  PERCEPTIVE 4 5 44½ 44½   36 29 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 3.50 2.03  
2  WILD ACCLAIM 1 4 11 1½   23½ 311½ (hamilton sara)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00 21.36  
4  ADIVA 3 3 33 32½   46½ 415¼ (puhich mike)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 2.63  
7  DONT CROSS BOUDICA 5 2 54½ 57   510 518¾ (reed r)MCKEE J 124 4.50 44% 1.30 6.22  
SCR  CAUSE IMA ROSE               (guida anthony)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 10.00    
SCR  SHE'S SO MALICE               (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00    
 
CD-4   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:223 :452 1:103     1:24   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  CATHEDRAL BEACH 4 5 55¼ 54½   22 11¾ (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 4.50 12% 7.40 5.76 W
7  POPULIST 6 3 1nk 2nk   12 21¾ (pino micha)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 5% 19.00 3.09 P
1  SENOR JOBIM 1 7 66¼ 64¾   45 34 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 2.50 57% 0.80 1.96 S
8  THAT KHENNY 7 1 2nk 1nk   34 47 (garcia gen)ANDERSON MCKENNA 113 8.00 6.75  
4  BOISE 3 2 32 32½   55 57 (habeeb donald )SAEZ GABRIEL 120 5.00 5.03  
6  MONKEY ZONE 5 6 710¾ 79¾   68 610 (curtsi)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 110 15.00 55.57  
2  COMMANDER CARL 2 4 42¼ 43   713 720¾ (fletcher wes)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00 4.86  
SCR  IMPROBABLE STORY               (king l)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 10.00    
 
CD-5   11/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:213 :443 :564     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  FURIOUS ANGER 6 2 2½ 1nk   1½ 1nk (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 1.20 30% 2.30 1.12 W
  (by VIOLENCE out of BLOSSOM SPECIAL by INTELLO)
4  DAZZLEMESILVER 4 1 1½ 2nk   2½ 2nk (desormeaux)HERNANDEZ J 121 1.40 36% 1.80 1.52 P
  (by TAPWRIT out of INDIAN GODDESS by WAQUOIT)
3  ACCIDENT 3 3 44 35   35 35 (short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 12% 7.60 11.99 S
  (by TALE OF VERVE out of NOT JAVA by NOT BOURBON)
5  PERFECT UPSTART 5 5 69½ 613½   611 49 (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 121 6.00 26.38  
  (by UPSTART out of PERFECT SISTER by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
2  ADDED MISCHIEF 2 6 55½ 58½   59 511½ (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 121 10.00 5.06  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ADDED UNTO YOU by ALBERTUS MAXIMUS)
1  NAUGHTYSON 1 4 33½ 46½   48½ 615 (michael bria)CALLEJA ANDRES 111 15.00 14.19  
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of NAUGHTYNAUGHTYGIRL by BERNARDINI)
 
CD-6   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:231 :462 1:121     1:26   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  PRAY FOR CHAMPAGNE 7 4 3½ 3½   13 15¼ (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00 7.39  
6  ISA LEI 4 1 1nk 2nk   23 25¼ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 29% 2.40 1.88 P
5  QUEEN LEXI 3 7 711¼ 713   79¼ 35¾ (short thomas)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 6.39  
7  MIWOMAN 5 5 52¼ 55½   57 46¼ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 4.50 25% 2.90 2.13  
3  LINDSEY (GB) 2 2 62¼ 68   69 58¼ (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 14.89  
8  QUEEN'S NOTICE 6 6 42 43½   47 69½ (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 24% 3.10 10.84  
1  SHE'S SPLENDID 1 3 2nk 1nk   35 79½ (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 5.87  
SCR  BENT HALO               (humphries thom)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
SCR  NOTO               (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50    
 
CD-7   11/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:243 :481 1:12 1:37   1:432   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  DAI VERNON 4 4 42½ 42 32 2nk 12¼ (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 4.38  
6  SINGLE DOT YAHT 6 1 74¼ 74½ 64 42¼ 22¼ (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 3.50 13% 6.80 5.69 P
1  YOU AIN'T POPPN 1 2 11 1½ 1nk 3.2 34 (walsh br)SANTANA JR 118 4.00 13% 6.40 2.83 S
2  GHAZAALY 2 3 21 2½ 2nk 1nk 46¾ (cerin vlad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 48% 1.10 1.43  
3  CANT BE DOIN THAT 3 8 86¼ 86½ 86¾ 65¾ 59¾ (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 121 10.00 17.29  
5  TEJAS 5 5 63¾ 64½ 74¼ 54¼ 69¾ (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 16.93  
7  REDEMPTION TIME 7 6 31 31 42½ 88¾ 715 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 17.69  
8  MOBSTER GUN 8 7 53½ 54 53½ 78¼ 817 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00 5% 19.00 22.54  
 
CD-8   11/17/2023 3630ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:221 :443 :563     1:03   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  EXCESS MAGIC 3 2 11 12   15½ 16 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 24% 3.10 2.40 W
10  WILLTORUN 5 3 64½ 46½   25½ 26 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 2.74  
3  GO WEST 2 5 54 57   48 311½ (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00 33% 2.00 2.97 S
9  BOHEMIAN BO 4 1 21 22   36 412½ (vance tho)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00 17.79  
12  ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS 7 4 33 36   511 515¾ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00 13% 6.90 5.07  
11  VOODOO ZIP 6 7 79 713½   616½ 616 (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 120 8.00 24.03  
2  VULCAN 1 6 43 612   718 716½ (sims p)ACHARD ALEX 120 30.00 6.06  
SCR  AMBIVALENT               (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 120 12.00    
SCR  COLOSSEO               (catalano)SANTANA JR 120 20.00    
SCR  FIELD DAY               (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 120 5.00    
SCR  JUST SAY WHEN               (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
SCR  OF THE MOMENT               (williamson bri)ASHTON GAVIN 120 30.00    
SCR  OUTADORE               (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 1.20    
SCR  ZOOMBIE               (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00    
 
CD-9   11/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:232 :474 1:121 1:362   1:423   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  HIGHLAND FALLS 2 5 45 53½ 2nk 1nk 12 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 66% 0.50 1.07 W
9  TEN DAYS LATER 7 3 67 43½ 41¼ 2nk 22 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 3.08  
3  SMILE MON 1 2 13½ 11½ 3.2 31 35¾ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 5.00 6.41  
7  EMIRATES ROAD 5 7 79 75¼ 74¼ 43½ 48 (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 30.00 5% 19.00 44.13  
8  JUST BATTLE 6 4 56½ 65 52¾ 55½ 511¾ (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 5% 19.00 4.34  
6  BASELINE BEATER 4 6 35 21½ 1nk 75¾ 614¼ (pessin l)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00 27.23  
5  J J'S JOKER 3 1 23½ 32½ 63¼ 65¾ 715 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 8.43  
SCR  BUBBA CAN DANCE               (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 120 30.00    
SCR  REDEEMER               (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

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