Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Friday - November 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (6/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $12.18 $12.18 6.18
CD-2   Win (5/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 4 1 0 $4.56  
CD-3   Win (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 3 1 1 $4.70 $4.70 0.70
CD-4   Win (1/5/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $13.52 $13.52 5.52
CD-5   Win (4/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 1 $4.24 $4.24  
CD-6   Win (6/7/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 9 1 0 $16.78  
CD-7   Win (2/1/6/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 4 1 0 $10.76  
CD-8   Win (3/7/12) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 1 $6.80 $6.80 0.80
CD-9   Win (4/8/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $4.14 $4.14  

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:214 :454 :582     1:113   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
INSIGHTFUL MISS 2 4 66 3   1½ 1 (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 120 3.50 9% 9.70 5.09 W
MAHOMEBRED 3 3 11 12   2½ 2 (williamson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.00 4.02  
LONG BLACK VEIL 5 1 21 22   3 3 (jarvis kathy)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 17.07  
MARKSWOMAN 1 6 53 6   5 46 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 17% 5.00 1.26  
ZERO CLICK 4 2 3 4   4 5 (norris mike)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 39.11  
WIKI LIO 6 5 4 54   6 620¾ (calhoun william )ASHTON GAVIN 118 2.50 44% 1.30 2.04  
 
CD-2   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:233 :473 1:122     1:253   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TOO FAST FOR YOU 3 4 21 2½   14 1 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 1.28  
APRIL CLOVER 5 1 11 1½   24 2 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 118 2.50 1.65  
WISCO DISCO 4 2 4 42   36 3 (mcentee paul)ASHTON GAVIN 120 4.00 41% 1.40 5.70 S
LUCKY LESSON 2 3 55 57   512½ 416 (corrigan jim)ELLIOTT JANE 118 8.00 12.05  
FESSY 1 5 31 32   4 517½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 20% 4.10 4.83  
SCR  BAYTOWN ANGEL               (mcentee paul)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50    
 
CD-3   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:104     1:234   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NURSEKRINGLEDANCES 2 1 21 2½   1 19 (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 122 3.00 19% 4.30 1.35 W
PERCEPTIVE 4 5 4 4   36 29 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 3.50 2.03  
WILD ACCLAIM 1 4 11 1½   2 311½ (hamilton sarah)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00 21.36  
ADIVA 3 3 33 3   4 415¼ (puhich mike)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 2.63  
DONT CROSS BOUDICA 5 2 5 57   510 518¾ (reed r)MCKEE J 124 4.50 44% 1.30 6.22  
SCR  CAUSE IMA ROSE               (guida e)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 10.00    
SCR  SHE'S SO MALICE               (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00    
 
CD-4   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:223 :452 1:103     1:24   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CATHEDRAL BEACH 4 5 5 5   22 1 (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 4.50 12% 7.40 5.76 W
POPULIST 6 3 1nk 2nk   12 2 (pino michael)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 5% 19.00 3.09 P
SENOR JOBIM 1 7 6 6   45 34 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 120 2.50 57% 0.80 1.96 S
THAT KHENNY 7 1 2nk 1nk   34 47 (garcia genar)ANDERSON MCKENNA 113 8.00 6.75  
BOISE 3 2 32 3   55 57 (habeeb j)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 5.00 5.03  
MONKEY ZONE 5 6 710¾ 7   68 610 (curtsing)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 110 15.00 55.57  
COMMANDER CARL 2 4 4 43   713 720¾ (fletcher wes)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00 4.86  
SCR  IMPROBABLE STORY               (king l)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 10.00    
 
CD-5   11/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:213 :443 :564     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FURIOUS ANGER 6 2 2½ 1nk   1½ 1nk (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 1.20 30% 2.30 1.12 W
DAZZLEMESILVER 4 1 1½ 2nk   2½ 2nk (desormeaux j)HERNANDEZ J 121 1.40 36% 1.80 1.52 P
ACCIDENT 3 3 44 35   35 35 (short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 12% 7.60 11.99 S
PERFECT UPSTART 5 5 6 613½   611 49 (barrett roddina )ELLIOTT JANE 121 6.00 26.38  
ADDED MISCHIEF 2 6 5 5   59 511½ (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 121 10.00 5.06  
NAUGHTYSON 1 4 3 4   4 615 (michael brian)CALLEJA ANDRES 111 15.00 14.19  
 
CD-6   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:231 :462 1:121     1:26   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PRAY FOR CHAMPAGNE 7 4 3½ 3½   13 1 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00 7.39  
ISA LEI 4 1 1nk 2nk   23 2 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 29% 2.40 1.88 P
QUEEN LEXI 3 7 711¼ 713   7 3 (short thomas)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 6.39  
MIWOMAN 5 5 5 5   57 4 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 4.50 25% 2.90 2.13  
LINDSEY (GB) 2 2 6 68   69 5 (wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 14.89  
QUEEN'S NOTICE 6 6 42 4   47 6 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 24% 3.10 10.84  
SHE'S SPLENDID 1 3 2nk 1nk   35 7 (tomlinson m)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 5.87  
SCR  BENT HALO               (humphries thomas)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
SCR  NOTO               (thomas jonatha)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50    
 
CD-7   11/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:243 :481 1:12 1:37   1:432   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DAI VERNON 4 4 4 42 32 2nk 1 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 4.38  
SINGLE DOT YAHT 6 1 7 7 64 4 2 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.50 13% 6.80 5.69 P
YOU AIN'T POPPN 1 2 11 1½ 1nk 3.2 34 (walsh bren)SANTANA JR 118 4.00 13% 6.40 2.83 S
GHAZAALY 2 3 21 2½ 2nk 1nk 4 (cerin vladim)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 48% 1.10 1.43  
CANT BE DOIN THAT 3 8 8 8 8 6 5 (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 121 10.00 17.29  
TEJAS 5 5 6 6 7 5 6 (asmussen steven )MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 16.93  
REDEMPTION TIME 7 6 31 31 4 8 715 (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 17.69  
MOBSTER GUN 8 7 5 54 5 7 817 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00 5% 19.00 22.54  
 
CD-8   11/17/2023 3630ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:221 :443 :563     1:03   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EXCESS MAGIC 3 2 11 12   1 16 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 24% 3.10 2.40 W
10  WILLTORUN 5 3 6 4   2 26 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 2.74  
GO WEST 2 5 54 57   48 311½ (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00 33% 2.00 2.97 S
BOHEMIAN BO 4 1 21 22   36 412½ (vance thoma)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00 17.79  
12  ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS 7 4 33 36   511 515¾ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00 13% 6.90 5.07  
11  VOODOO ZIP 6 7 79 713½   616½ 616 (barrett roddina )ELLIOTT JANE 120 8.00 24.03  
VULCAN 1 6 43 612   718 716½ (sims p)ACHARD ALEX 120 30.00 6.06  
SCR  AMBIVALENT               (morey willia)CORRALES GERARDO 120 12.00    
SCR  COLOSSEO               (catalano w)SANTANA JR 120 20.00    
SCR  FIELD DAY               (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 120 5.00    
SCR  JUST SAY WHEN               (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
SCR  OF THE MOMENT               (williamson brian)ASHTON GAVIN 120 30.00    
SCR  OUTADORE               (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 120 1.20    
SCR  ZOOMBIE               (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00    
 
CD-9   11/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:232 :474 1:121 1:362   1:423   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HIGHLAND FALLS 2 5 45 5 2nk 1nk 12 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 66% 0.50 1.07 W
TEN DAYS LATER 7 3 67 4 4 2nk 22 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 3.08  
SMILE MON 1 2 1 1 3.2 31 3 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 5.00 6.41  
EMIRATES ROAD 5 7 79 7 7 4 48 (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 30.00 5% 19.00 44.13  
JUST BATTLE 6 4 5 65 5 5 511¾ (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 5% 19.00 4.34  
BASELINE BEATER 4 6 35 2 1nk 7 614¼ (pessin l)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00 27.23  
J J'S JOKER 3 1 2 3 6 6 715 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 8.43  
SCR  BUBBA CAN DANCE               (stewart dal)LEPAROUX R 120 30.00    
SCR  REDEEMER               (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.