Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - November 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (6/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/2)-(6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/2)-(5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/1/2)-(5/1)-(7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/1)-(5/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/1)-(7/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (5/1)-(7/3)-(1/5/7/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/3)-(7/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (7/3)-(1/5/7/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/3)-(1/5/7/2)-(4/6/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/5/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/7/2)-(1/5/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/7/2)-(1/5/7/2)-(1/5/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/5/7/2)-(4/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/5/7/2)-(4/6/3)-(6/7/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/3)-(4/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/3)-(4/6/3)-(4/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/3)-(6/7/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/6/3)-(6/7/8)-(2/1/6/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (6/7/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/8)-(6/7/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/8)-(6/7/8)-(6/7/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/7/8)-(2/1/6/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/7/8)-(2/1/6/8)-(3/7/12) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/1/6/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/6/8)-(2/1/6/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/6/8)-(2/1/6/8)-(2/1/6/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1/6/8)-(3/7/12) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/6/8)-(3/7/12)-(4/8/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/7/12) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/12)-(3/7/12) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/7/12)-(3/7/12)-(3/7/12) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/7/12)-(4/8/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
CD-9   WIN (4/8/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/8/7)-(4/8/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/8/7)-(4/8/7)-(4/8/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARKSWOMAN Sep27 May19 Mar05 Nov24 Nov06 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 17% 5.00    
2  INSIGHTFUL MISS Oct22 Aug26 Jul31     (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 120 3.50 9% 9.70    
3  MAHOMEBRED Oct20 Jul18 May26 Apr19 Sep07 (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.00    
4  ZERO CLICK Oct31 Oct06 Sep08 Aug18 Aug01 (norris mike)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
5  LONG BLACK VEIL Oct19 Sep26 Sep08 Aug04 Jul06 (jarvis kathy)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00    
6  WIKI LIO Sep20 Aug26 Jun18 May12 Mar26 (calhoun wi)CORRALES GERARDO 118 2.50 44% 1.30    
 
CD-2   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FESSY Sep28 Sep11       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 20% 4.10    
2  LUCKY LESSON Oct09 Sep25 Jun08 May27 May10 (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 118 8.00    
SCR  BAYTOWN ANGEL Oct23 Oct10 Sep27 Sep11 Aug21 (mcentee paul)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50    
4  TOO FAST FOR YOU Oct11 Sep14 Aug02 Jun30 May11 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
5  WISCO DISCO Nov07 Oct20       (mcentee paul)ASHTON GAVIN 120 4.00 41% 1.40    
6  APRIL CLOVER Sep13 Aug19 Jul11 Jun21 May31 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 118 2.50    
 
CD-3   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SHE'S SO MALICE         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00    
2  WILD ACCLAIM Oct12 Sep22 Aug18 Jan18 Dec21 (hamilton sara)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00    
3  NURSEKRINGLEDANCES Oct12 Aug23 Jul28 Jun11 May18 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 122 3.00 19% 4.30    
4  ADIVA Oct28 Feb03 Dec21 Nov04 Oct08 (puhich mike)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00    
5  PERCEPTIVE Oct22 Sep22 Jun02     (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 3.50    
SCR  CAUSE IMA ROSE Oct24 Oct03 Aug31     (guida anthony)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 10.00    
7  DONT CROSS BOUDICA Oct24         (reed r)MCKEE J 124 4.50 44% 1.30    
 
CD-4   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SENOR JOBIM Nov03 Sep29 Sep04 Aug13 Jul22 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 2.50 57% 0.80    
2  COMMANDER CARL Oct20 Sep27 Sep05 Jul08 Jun02 (fletcher wes)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  IMPROBABLE STORY Nov01 Sep27 Jul06 May26 May04 (king l)CANNON DECLAN 120 10.00    
4  BOISE Sep30 Sep02 Jun04 May19 May04 (habeeb donald )SAEZ GABRIEL 120 5.00    
5  CATHEDRAL BEACH Feb10 Dec18 Oct26 Sep24 Aug24 (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 4.50 12% 7.40    
6  MONKEY ZONE Oct20 Sep23 Sep14 Aug12 Jul19 (curtsi)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 110 15.00    
7  POPULIST Oct13 Sep29 Jul29 Jul14 Jun04 (pino micha)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 5% 19.00    
8  THAT KHENNY Oct24 Oct09 Sep14 Aug23 May03 (garcia gen)ANDERSON MCKENNA 113 8.00    
 
CD-5   11/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NAUGHTYSON         (michael bria)CALLEJA ANDRES 111 15.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of NAUGHTYNAUGHTYGIRL by BERNARDINI)
2  ADDED MISCHIEF Oct25         (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 121 10.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ADDED UNTO YOU by ALBERTUS MAXIMUS)
3  ACCIDENT Jun24 Jun11 May28 Apr08 Mar04 (short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 12% 7.60    
  (by TALE OF VERVE out of NOT JAVA by NOT BOURBON)
4  DAZZLEMESILVER Oct22 Sep04 Jul21 May26 Apr08 (desormeaux)HERNANDEZ J 121 1.40 36% 1.80    
  (by TAPWRIT out of INDIAN GODDESS by WAQUOIT)
5  PERFECT UPSTART Oct21 Sep23 May11 Mar10 Jan13 (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 121 6.00    
  (by UPSTART out of PERFECT SISTER by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
6  FURIOUS ANGER Oct21 Sep23 Mar11     (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 1.20 30% 2.30    
  (by VIOLENCE out of BLOSSOM SPECIAL by INTELLO)
 
CD-6   11/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHE'S SPLENDID Sep07         (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
SCR  BENT HALO         (humphries thom)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
3  LINDSEY (GB) Oct21 Sep10 Aug20     (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
SCR  NOTO Oct11 Sep09       (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50    
5  QUEEN LEXI Oct26 Oct11 Sep27 Sep16   (short thomas)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00    
6  ISA LEI Sep27         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 29% 2.40    
7  MIWOMAN         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 4.50 25% 2.90    
8  QUEEN'S NOTICE         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 24% 3.10    
9  PRAY FOR CHAMPAGNE Oct12 Sep13 Aug01     (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00    
 
CD-7   11/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YOU AIN'T POPPN Oct15 Sep23       (walsh br)SANTANA JR 118 4.00 13% 6.40    
2  GHAZAALY Oct14 Sep10 Jul23 Jun10 May26 (cerin vlad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 48% 1.10    
3  CANT BE DOIN THAT Oct08 Jan20 Dec17 Nov27 Nov03 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 121 10.00    
4  DAI VERNON Sep24 Jul16 Jun22     (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
5  TEJAS Jun03 May06 Apr15 Mar11   (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00    
6  SINGLE DOT YAHT Oct21 Sep21 Jul16 Jun11 Sep21 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 3.50 13% 6.80    
7  REDEMPTION TIME Oct19 Sep17 Aug26 Jul21 Jun11 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00    
8  MOBSTER GUN Jun02 May13 Apr23 May12 Apr15 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-8   11/17/2023 3630ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ZOOMBIE Oct21 Sep18 Jul03 Jun05 Oct04 (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00    
2  VULCAN Oct21 Sep20 Aug04 Jun30 May05 (sims p)ACHARD ALEX 120 30.00    
3  GO WEST Jul22 May29 Apr28 Apr01 Feb25 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00 33% 2.00    
SCR  OUTADORE Sep13 Jul22 Feb17 Jan01 Oct28 (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 1.20    
SCR  COLOSSEO Oct06 Sep07 Aug28 Jul30   (catalano)SANTANA JR 120 20.00    
SCR  JUST SAY WHEN Oct25 Sep02 Dec17 Nov20 Sep11 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
7  EXCESS MAGIC Sep27 Sep03 Aug06 Jun24 May29 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 24% 3.10    
SCR  OF THE MOMENT Oct21 Sep27 Oct23 Sep27 Sep03 (williamson bri)ASHTON GAVIN 120 30.00    
9  BOHEMIAN BO Sep22 Jun25 May28 May06 Apr08 (vance tho)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
10  WILLTORUN Oct21 Aug04 Jun23 May02 Apr08 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00    
11  VOODOO ZIP Oct06 Sep13 Jul04 Jun04 May06 (barrett rod)PETERSON FERRIN 120 8.00    
12  ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS Oct15 Aug24 Jun21 May20 Apr08 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00 13% 6.90    
SCR  FIELD DAY Oct04 Jul21 Jun25 Jul13 May17 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 120 5.00    
SCR  AMBIVALENT Sep17 Aug31 Jul21 Sep10   (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 120 12.00    
 
CD-9   11/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BUBBA CAN DANCE Oct09 Aug08 Jan22 Dec31   (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 120 30.00    
SCR  REDEEMER Oct22 May14 Oct12 Aug28 Jul30 (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
3  SMILE MON Sep07 Aug12 Jul16 Jun11 May14 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 5.00    
4  HIGHLAND FALLS Sep24 Aug26       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 66% 0.50    
5  J J'S JOKER Nov02 Oct06 Aug19 Feb18 Jan21 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
6  BASELINE BEATER Oct12 Sep10 Aug04 May14 Apr15 (pessin l)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
7  EMIRATES ROAD Jan20 Dec29 Oct12 Jul04 Jun04 (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 30.00 5% 19.00    
8  JUST BATTLE Oct08 Sep07 Jul04 Jun09   (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
9  TEN DAYS LATER Oct19 Sep24 Jan01 Nov26 Oct20 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.