Handicappers' Race Results

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The Longshot Hunter!

Ellis Park
Monday - August 12, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

ELP-4   SFT (8/2/5/4/3)-(8/2/5/4/3/7)-(8/2/5/4/3/7)-(8/2/5/4/3/7) 300 $0.10 $30.00  2-4-8-5 $39.43 $9.43 31%
    SHF (8/2/5/4/3)-(8/2/5/4/3/7)-(8/2/5/4/3/7)-(8/2/5/4/3/7)-(8/2/5/4/3/7) 600 $1.00 $600  2-4-8-5-3 $657.32 $57.32 10%
ELP-5   WIN (2/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00  5 $12.58 $6.58 110%
    DD (8/2/5/4/3)-(2/7/5) 15 $2.00 $30.00  2-5 $33.40 $3.40 11%
    PK3 (3/7/4/1)-(8/2/5/4/3)-(2/7/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00  7-2-5 $32.31 $2.31 8%
ELP-6   DD (2/7/5)-(8/10/11/3) 12 $2.00 $24.00  5-8 $47.94 $23.94 100%
    PK3 (8/2/5/4/3)-(2/7/5)-(8/10/11/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00  2-5-8 $36.69 $6.69 22%
ELP-7   WIN (1/8/7/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00  8 $11.02 $3.02 38%
    DD (8/10/11/3)-(1/8/7/12) 16 $2.00 $32.00  8-8 $38.94 $6.94 22%
    PK3 (2/7/5)-(8/10/11/3)-(1/8/7/12) 48 $0.50 $24.00  5-8-8 $105.40 $81.40 339%
ELP-8   WIN (1/3/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00  1 $11.66 $3.66 46%
    EXA (1/3/6/5)-(1/3/6/5) 12 $2.00 $24.00  1-5 $113.50 $89.50 373%
    TRI (1/3/6/5)-(1/3/6/5)-(1/3/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00  1-5-3 $132.73 $120.73 1006%
    DD (1/8/7/12)-(1/3/6/5) 16 $2.00 $32.00  8-1 $44.86 $12.86 40%
    PK3 (8/10/11/3)-(1/8/7/12)-(1/3/6/5) 64 $0.50 $32.00  8-8-1 $41.94 $9.94 31%
ELP-9   EXA (3/4/5/8)-(3/4/5/2/6/8) 20 $2.00 $40.00  4-6 $107.20 $67.20 168%
    TRI (3/4/5/8)-(3/4/5/2/6/8)-(3/4/5/2/6/8) 80 $0.50 $40.00  4-6-2 $142.80 $102.80 257%
    SFT (3/4/5/8)-(3/4/5/2/6/8)-(3/4/5/2/6/8)-(3/4/5/2/6/8) 240 $0.10 $24.00  4-6-2-3 $92.34 $68.34 285%
    DD (1/3/6/5)-(3/4/5/8) 16 $2.00 $32.00  1-4 $38.06 $6.06 19%
    PK3 (1/8/7/12)-(1/3/6/5)-(3/4/5/8) 64 $0.50 $32.00  8-1-4 $47.07 $15.07 47%
    PK4 (8/10/11/3)-(1/8/7/12)-(1/3/6/5)-(3/4/5/8) 256 $0.50 $128  2/5/7/8-8-1-4 $164.80 $36.80 29%
    PK5 (2/7/5)-(8/10/11/3)-(1/8/7/12)-(1/3/6/5)-(3/4/5/8) 768 $0.50 $384  5-2/5/7/8-8-1-4 $2976 $2592 675%
    PK6 (8/2/5/4/3)-(2/7/5)-(8/10/11/3)-(1/8/7/12)-(1/3/6/5)-(3/4/5/8) 3840 $0.20 $768  2/13/14/15/16-5-2/5/7/8-8-1-4 $2868 $2100 274%

Simulator Race results

 
ELP-1   08/12/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 2 F PT-12:50
See original race card.
:222 :461 :592     1:131   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HEARTS UNITED 7 2 6 55   44 1nk (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 2.95  
PEANUT GALLERY 5 6 32 1nk   1 2nk (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 15% 5.70 2.53 P
TAKE WINGS 3 5 22 3   3 35 (lynch a)NELSON TYRONE 119 10.00 4.71 S
ISLAND RIDE 4 1 12 2nk   2 46 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 60% 0.70 3.07  
MIDNIGHT BLAZE 1 7 8 7   56 5 (desormeau)HERNANDEZ J 119 30.00 5% 19.00 21.03  
WAVER 8 3 7 8   6 6 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 12.00 27.52  
10  INDY'S UNIVERSE 9 4 43 4   7 710¾ (davis christ)TORRES A 119 12.00 27.84  
RUMORED 2 9 9 9   8 817¼ (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00 12.27  
PREYATHOUSANDWORDS 6 8 54 67   911¼ 932¾ (hamilton sarah)BEJARANO R 119 20.00 14.31  
SCR  HONEYBEEBOBBIE               (gonzal)LOPEZ EDUARDO 119 30.00    
SCR  ROGUE DIAMOND               (rivelli larry)COHEN DAVID 119 4.50    
 
ELP-2   08/12/2024 4290ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
See original race card.
:23 :462 1:104     1:172   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STAND BY YOU 6 3 4 4   3 1nk (watkins ja)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00 4.51  
MAZOKU 3 2 1nk 2nk   1½ 2nk (butcher j)BEALMEAR C 117 2.00 48% 1.10 0.75 P
SHIP IT 2 5 5 5   4 3 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 122 12.00 7.59  
FAIRY CAKES (GB) 5 1 31 3½   5 46 (mcentee paul)TORRES A 122 15.00 19.43  
GHOSTLY NIGHT 1 4 2nk 1nk   2½ 5 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 5.00 6% 17.20 2.76  
FREE TIME 4 6 6 6   6 615½ (hancock dan)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 20.00 32.67  
SCR  ATLANTIC STRIKE               (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 2.50 20% 4.10    
SCR  SUMMER OF MISCHIEF               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 4.50    
 
ELP-3   08/12/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:49
See original race card.
:241 :473 1:113 1:24   1:371   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SINGLE DOT YAHT 7 5 4 32 2nk 1 1 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 123 2.00 26% 2.80 1.15 W
SILVER HEIST 6 7 63 6 42 32 2 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 4.00 7.77  
METALHEAD 4 3 21 21 1nk 2 3 (morey william )MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 13% 6.60 11.78 S
MAXWELL 3 2 5 53 5 45 4 (walsh bre)TORRES A 120 3.00 33% 2.00 2.49  
CURLIN GUNNER 5 6 75 7 7 6 5 (medina robert)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00 20.83  
HIGGINS BOAT 2 4 3 42 6 78 614 (amoss thom)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 5.00 6.39  
G T FIVE HUNDRED 1 1 11 11 3 55 715¼ (cano mu)TORRES A 123 6.00 7% 13.70 10.28  
 
ELP-4   08/12/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT- 2:21
See original race card.
:223 :452 1:102     1:232   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AUTHENTIC STRIKE 2 9 1½ 1½   1nk 1¼ (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 22% 3.60 0.99 W
  (by AUTHENTIC out of WISE STRIKE by SMART STRIKE)
KINETIC CONTROL 4 12 5 42   2nk 2¼ (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 12.00 5% 19.00 10.87 P
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of DEVIOUS D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
PUBLISHER 8 4 8 6   3 3 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 4.50 22% 3.50 7.08 S
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of INDIAN PRIDE by PROUD CITIZEN)
INSTANT REPLAY 5 7 3½ 3½   4 4 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 12% 7.20 6.72  
  (by MAXIMUM SECURITY out of ACADEMY GAL by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
KEVIN'S STRIKE 3 8 2½ 2½   5 511 (amoss thom)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 15.00 5% 19.00 34.70  
  (by TOM'S D'ETAT out of LISA T. by AWESOME AGAIN)
RIGHTEOUS STAR 7 5 12 129   7 613 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 20.86  
  (by AUTHENTIC out of MUNNY SPUNT by MUNNINGS)
11  BOURBON FLIGHT 11 6 11 7   8 713¼ (wilkes r)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 5.88  
  (by MCKINZIE out of DARKWINGSOVERDUBAI by RAVEN'S PASS)
BRERETON'S BAYTOWN 6 3 41 5   6 814½ (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 112 20.00 25.64  
  (by UPSTART out of KIKA by BIRDSTONE)
SO SANDY 9 2 10 119   99 915½ (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00 19.00  
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of SO FANCY by TAPIT)
12  VADEN 12 1 9 9   10 1021¼ (ortiz a)TORRES A 119 30.00 58.87  
  (by MAXIMUM SECURITY out of CATEYBUG by TIZNOW)
MONET'S MAGIC 1 11 62 10   1114½ 1132¼ (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 25.81  
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of RONTOS LILY by BIG DRAMA)
10  BLUE OCEAN RAVE 10 10 7 8   1215½ 1240¼ (desorm)LOPEZ EDUARDO 119 30.00 72.07  
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of STEAL THE DANCE by TAPIT)
SCR  DESERT AIRE               (puhich mike)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of GEORGIA by DANCE CENTRE)
SCR  SPEECHLESS               (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of OH MY by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  WINNING SONG               (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of THMORUPLATHLESUPAY by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  WINTER CREEK               (bauer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
  (by CONNECT out of PIKE CREEK by FOREST CAMP)
 
ELP-5   08/12/2024 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($77K) 3 F PT- 2:54
See original race card.
:213 :44 :551     1:01   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MOONLIT LADY 4 1 11 1½   1nk 1½ (gutierrez f)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 5.00 5% 19.00 5.29 W
NIKI NINE DOORS 1 5 32 3   2nk 2½ (davis chri)CORRALES GERARDO 120 1.80 1.58  
CROWN IMPERIAL 3 4 5 5   3 3 (ortiz a)TORRES A 118 6.00 7.80  
MAKEUP 2 6 6 63   5 44 (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50 54% 0.80 1.98  
FROLIC IN THE PARK 5 3 21 2½   4 5 (cowans willia)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 21.30  
QUIMICHIS 6 2 42 42   6 6 (gutierrez)TORRES A 118 3.00 21% 3.80 4.80  
SCR  DI'S SURPRISE               (rivelli larry)COHEN DAVID 120 15.00    
 
ELP-6   08/12/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
See original race card.
:222 :451 1:094     1:163   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUMMER SPLASH 5 6 41 2½   1½ 13 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 4.00 41% 1.40 2.82 W
FRIAR LAURENCE 4 3 52 54   4 23 (garcia genar)BARBOSA CARLOS 122 15.00 14.27  
CATHEDRAL BEACH 6 5 6 6   5 33 (amoss tho)TORRES A 122 6.00 3.18  
11  FITZPATRICK 8 4 2nk 1½   2½ 45 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00 6% 15.30 5.92  
EFFICIENCY 2 8 8 8   6 5 (santamaria)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 8.00 6% 15.30 9.99  
10  SOARING BIRD 7 2 3½ 3   3 68 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 8.00 21% 3.70 6.72  
FAN THE FIRE 1 7 73 7   7 710 (cano mu)GEROUX FLORENT 122 10.00 4.73  
ONE RED CENT 3 1 1nk 4   8 830¼ (jazdzewski)CORRALES GERARDO 120 12.00 8.34  
SCR  CIRCLE BACK JACK               (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00    
SCR  SHACKS WAY               (hewitt mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00    
SCR  TILTED TOWERS               (rice adam)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 3.50    
 
ELP-7   08/12/2024 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 F PT- 3:52
See original race card.
:212 :44 :553     1:013   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHE'S ALL CHARM 7 2 4¾ 3.2   1 1nk (harty eo)RODRIGUEZ A 119 3.50 22% 3.50 4.51 W
  (by MORE THAN READY out of TOO CHARMING by BERNARDINI)
10  MISS LONELLE 9 10 8 7   43 2nk (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 15.00 22.28  
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of CHARLENE'S PAL by PROUD CITIZEN)
BIRKIN GIRL 5 7 7 5   54 3 (colebrook)TORRES A 119 12.00 33.03 S
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BLAME THE FROG by BLAME)
SCATTITUDE 3 11 106 84   6 4 (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00 35.16  
  (by VIOLENCE out of SHE'S ALL SCAT by SCAT DADDY)
DON'T CALL ME BABE 1 4 1nk 2nk   2 5 (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 44% 1.30 0.85  
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of THAT VOODOO YOUDO by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
13  TIGER DIVISION 12 8 6 6   7 6 (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 22.08  
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of KOOL KAT by SCAT DADDY)
BOIS BLANC 6 1 3.2 1nk   33 7 (wojczynski jus)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 4.00 14% 6.20 5.59  
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of FLORIAN by TWIN TIME)
EVELYN LOUISE 4 6 9 106   10 8 (oliver victori)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 20.64  
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of YOUNGEST DAUGHTER by THE FACTOR)
12  DESIGN 11 9 118 11   9 9 (mott riley)TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 19.00 32.50  
  (by MUNNINGS out of LONG VIEW by GALILEO)
MOMOZOME 2 3 2nk 4¾   8 1010¾ (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 11.33  
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of SUMIZOME by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
CHAMPAGNE ON ICE 8 12 1210½ 12   1110¾ 1111 (wilkes ia)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00 64.44  
  (by FROSTED out of TOO MUCH DETAIL by OVERANALYZE)
11  BARBARINA 10 5 5 95   1211¾ 1215½ (jazdzewski)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 42.42  
  (by UNIFIED out of DESTINATION LOVE by FRIESAN FIRE)
SCR  AIRFORCE LIGHTNING               (puhich mike)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 15.00    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of SASHAY by STROLL)
SCR  RHAENYS               (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 119 10.00    
  (by HIGHER POWER out of KODIAC GAL by KODIAC)
SCR  TICKIN TIME BLONDE               (oliver vic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 15.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of BLONDE BOMBER by FORT LARNED)
SCR  VICTORY WALTZ               (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 119 20.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of VIENNA'S WALTZ by FREUD)
 
ELP-8   08/12/2024 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($76K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:19
See original race card.
:243 :483 1:121 1:38   1:511   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ELUSIVE TARGET 1 3 5 6 6 42 1 (maker michae)TORRES A 124 2.50 38% 1.70 4.83 W
EXPENSIVE CUT 5 5 31 3.2 3½ 2½ 2 (morse rand)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00 5% 19.00 19.53 P
HORACE MANN 3 1 1nk 1nk 1nk 1½ 34 (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 124 3.50 30% 2.40 1.46 S
MIGHTY MESSAGE 2 2 4 4 4 53 45 (amoss tho)TORRES A 118 4.50 4.02  
MAN IN THE CAN 6 4 2nk 2nk 2nk 3½ 5 (moquett ronal)MORALES EDGAR 122 5.00 6% 15.60 8.58  
ONTHESTAGE 4 7 7 710¾ 7 65 6 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 10.00 19.59  
GILMORE 7 6 6 5 54 7 723¼ (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 4.00 3.25  
 
ELP-9   08/12/2024 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:48
See original race card.
:221 :444 1:09 1:21   1:331   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SAINT IN THE CITY 4 3 6 5 5 2½ 1¼ (mott william)TORRES A 123 4.00 10% 9.00 3.01 W
RIGEL 6 2 2nk 1nk 1½ 1½ 2¼ (sancal murat)GRAHAM J 123 6.00 14.36 P
RANSOMWARE 2 6 8 7 6 4¾ 31 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 123 5.00 7.12 S
DOUBLE YOUR MONEY 3 1 45 46 4 3½ 4 (lynch bria)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 64% 0.60 1.71  
LEAD FOOT 8 9 9 10 8 6 5 (gonzal)LOPEZ EDUARDO 118 30.00 63.89  
12  MR. FAVERSHAM 11 11 10 119 10 9 6 (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 30.00 45.65  
AMERICAN RAIDER 1 7 5 6 7 7 76 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 120 20.00 22.42  
11  GOLDEN BUCK 10 5 32 3 3 8 8 (castanon jose )CASTANON L 118 15.00 14.46  
WASHINGTON'S UNION 5 8 7 8 9 10 9 (pino mich)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 6.00 5% 19.00 5.95  
RED LINE OVERDRIVE 7 4 1nk 2nk 2½ 5 109 (kubinova )TORRES A 123 20.00 5% 19.00 21.05  
10  CELESTIAL JOY (GB) 9 10 1110 1210 1111¾ 11 11 (estvanko richard)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 19.77  
13  MERLOTTI 12 12 1210½ 9 1212 12 12 (wainwright )ARRIETA REYNIER 123 20.00 38.80  
SCR  GIOVANNINO               (davis chri)CORRALES GERARDO 123 12.00    
SCR  HASKELLED               (van thoma)MACHADO LUAN 123 10.00    
SCR  IBN AL ARABI               (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 12.00    
SCR  TRACK TYRANT               (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.