Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Monday - August 12, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (5/6/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/6/3/1)-(5/6/3/4/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/6/3/1)-(5/6/3/4/1)-(5/6/3/4/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/6/3/1)-(3/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/6/3/1)-(3/8/7)-(3/7/4/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-2   WIN (3/8/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/8/7)-(3/8/1/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/8/7)-(3/8/1/7)-(3/8/1/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/8/7)-(3/7/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/8/7)-(3/7/4/1)-(8/2/5/3/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-3   WIN (3/7/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/4/1)-(3/7/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/4/1)-(3/7/4/1)-(3/7/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/4/1)-(8/2/5/3/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/7/4/1)-(8/2/5/3/4)-(2/7/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-4   WIN (8/2/5/3/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/2/5/3/4)-(8/2/5/3/4/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (8/2/5/3/4)-(8/2/5/3/4/7)-(8/2/5/3/4/7) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (8/2/5/3/4)-(2/7/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/2/5/3/4)-(2/7/5)-(8/10/11/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-5   WIN (2/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/5)-(2/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/7/5)-(2/7/5)-(2/7/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/7/5)-(8/10/11/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/7/5)-(8/10/11/3)-(1/8/7/12) 48 $0.50 $144 
ELP-6   WIN (8/10/11/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/10/11/3)-(8/10/11/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/10/11/3)-(8/10/11/3)-(8/10/11/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/10/11/3)-(1/8/7/12) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/10/11/3)-(1/8/7/12)-(1/3/6/5) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-7   WIN (1/8/7/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/8/7/12)-(1/8/7/2/6/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/8/7/12)-(1/8/7/2/6/12)-(1/8/7/2/6/12) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
    DD (1/8/7/12)-(1/3/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/8/7/12)-(1/3/6/5)-(3/4/5/8) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-8   WIN (1/3/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/6/5)-(1/3/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/6/5)-(1/3/6/5)-(1/3/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/6/5)-(3/4/5/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
ELP-9   WIN (3/4/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/5/8)-(3/4/5/2/6/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/4/5/8)-(3/4/5/2/6/8)-(3/4/5/2/6/8) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/12/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 2 F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT BLAZE         (desormeau)HERNANDEZ J 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HONEYBEEBOBBIE Jul21         (gonzal)LOPEZ EDUARDO 119 30.00    
3  RUMORED         (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  TAKE WINGS         (lynch a)NELSON TYRONE 119 10.00 ★    
5  ISLAND RIDE Jul21 Jun16 Apr07     (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 60% 0.70    
6  PEANUT GALLERY Jul29         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 15% 5.70    
7  PREYATHOUSANDWORDS Jul22 Jul13 Jun16     (hamilton sarah)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
8  HEARTS UNITED Jul21         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
9  WAVER Jul13 Jun28       (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 12.00    
10  INDY'S UNIVERSE Jul13 Jun22 May19     (davis christ)TORRES A 119 12.00    
SCR  ROGUE DIAMOND         (rivelli larry)COHEN DAVID 119 4.50    
 
ELP-2   08/12/2024 4290ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GHOSTLY NIGHT Jul18 Apr30 Apr10 Jan28 Jan06 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 5.00 6% 17.20    
2  SHIP IT Jul13 Jun14 Feb17 Jan11 Dec27 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 122 12.00    
3  MAZOKU Jul13 Jun21 May25 Apr30 Apr10 (butcher j)BEALMEAR C 117 2.00 48% 1.10    
SCR  SUMMER OF MISCHIEF Jun14 May25 May03 Apr06 Mar02 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 4.50    
5  FREE TIME Jun27 May25 May17 Apr25 Mar21 (hancock dan)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 20.00    
6  FAIRY CAKES (GB) Aug03 Jul13 Jun17 May08 Apr19 (mcentee paul)TORRES A 122 15.00    
7  STAND BY YOU Jul13 May25 Apr19 Sep06 Aug09 (watkins ja)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00 ★    
SCR  ATLANTIC STRIKE Jul07 Jun14 Apr19 Mar27 Feb17 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 2.50 20% 4.10    
 
ELP-3   08/12/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  G T FIVE HUNDRED Jun28 Jun12 May12 Mar29 Feb23 (cano mu)TORRES A 123 6.00 7% 13.70    
2  HIGGINS BOAT May27 May04 Mar06 Feb17 Jan20 (amoss thom)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 5.00    
3  MAXWELL Jul14 Jun09       (walsh bre)TORRES A 120 3.00 33% 2.00    
4  METALHEAD Jul16         (morey william )MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 13% 6.60    
5  CURLIN GUNNER Jul05 Jun08 May02 Mar23 Jan13 (medina robert)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
6  SILVER HEIST Jul04 May27 Apr28 Apr13 Mar07 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 4.00    
7  SINGLE DOT YAHT Jun30 Jun09 May10 Apr19 Dec22 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 123 2.00 26% 2.80    
 
ELP-4   08/12/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT- 2:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONET'S MAGIC         (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of RONTOS LILY by BIG DRAMA)
2  AUTHENTIC STRIKE         (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 22% 3.60    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of WISE STRIKE by SMART STRIKE)
3  KEVIN'S STRIKE         (amoss thom)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TOM'S D'ETAT out of LISA T. by AWESOME AGAIN)
4  KINETIC CONTROL         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of DEVIOUS D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  INSTANT REPLAY         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 12% 7.20    
  (by MAXIMUM SECURITY out of ACADEMY GAL by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
6  BRERETON'S BAYTOWN Jul27 Jul07 Jun19 Jun06   (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 112 20.00    
  (by UPSTART out of KIKA by BIRDSTONE)
7  RIGHTEOUS STAR         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 ★    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of MUNNY SPUNT by MUNNINGS)
8  PUBLISHER         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 4.50 22% 3.50    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of INDIAN PRIDE by PROUD CITIZEN)
9  SO SANDY         (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of SO FANCY by TAPIT)
10  BLUE OCEAN RAVE         (desorm)LOPEZ EDUARDO 119 30.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of STEAL THE DANCE by TAPIT)
11  BOURBON FLIGHT         (wilkes r)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of DARKWINGSOVERDUBAI by RAVEN'S PASS)
12  VADEN         (ortiz a)TORRES A 119 30.00    
  (by MAXIMUM SECURITY out of CATEYBUG by TIZNOW)
SCR  DESERT AIRE         (puhich mike)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of GEORGIA by DANCE CENTRE)
SCR  WINTER CREEK         (bauer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
  (by CONNECT out of PIKE CREEK by FOREST CAMP)
SCR  SPEECHLESS         (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of OH MY by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  WINNING SONG         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of THMORUPLATHLESUPAY by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
ELP-5   08/12/2024 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($77K) 3 F PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NIKI NINE DOORS Jul06 Jun15 May11 Apr18 Mar13 (davis chri)CORRALES GERARDO 120 1.80    
2  MAKEUP Jul13 Oct19 Aug26     (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50 54% 0.80    
3  CROWN IMPERIAL Jul07 May31 Apr06 Mar02 Oct06 (ortiz a)TORRES A 118 6.00    
SCR  DI'S SURPRISE Jul07 Jun09 May19 Mar31   (rivelli larry)COHEN DAVID 120 15.00    
5  MOONLIT LADY Jul28 Jul06 Jun09 May16 Apr12 (gutierrez f)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
6  FROLIC IN THE PARK Jun11 Mar09       (cowans willia)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
7  QUIMICHIS Jul06 Jun09 May12 Apr13 Feb08 (gutierrez)TORRES A 118 3.00 21% 3.80    
 
ELP-6   08/12/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAN THE FIRE Jun26 Jun06 May18 May01 Apr11 (cano mu)GEROUX FLORENT 122 10.00    
SCR  CIRCLE BACK JACK May16 May03 Mar24 Mar02 Jan28 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00    
3  EFFICIENCY Jul14 Jun02 May10 Apr05 Mar08 (santamaria)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 8.00 6% 15.30    
4  ONE RED CENT Jul17 Jun29 Jun13 May30 May09 (jazdzewski)CORRALES GERARDO 120 12.00    
SCR  TILTED TOWERS Jul15 Jun02 May10 Apr12 Mar30 (rice adam)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 3.50    
6  FRIAR LAURENCE Jun10 May25 Mar14 Dec30 Dec08 (garcia genar)BARBOSA CARLOS 122 15.00    
SCR  SHACKS WAY May26 May04 Apr07 Mar24 Mar15 (hewitt mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00    
8  SUMMER SPLASH Aug27 Jun18 Apr20 Feb21 Jan28 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 4.00 41% 1.40    
9  CATHEDRAL BEACH Jun28 Jun06 May04 Apr14 Mar24 (amoss tho)TORRES A 122 6.00    
10  SOARING BIRD Jun26 Jun12 May10 Apr07 Mar16 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 8.00 21% 3.70    
11  FITZPATRICK Jul15 Jun28 Jun12 May10 Apr18 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00 6% 15.30    
 
ELP-7   08/12/2024 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 F PT- 3:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DON'T CALL ME BABE Jul13         (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 44% 1.30    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of THAT VOODOO YOUDO by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
2  MOMOZOME         (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 ★    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of SUMIZOME by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
3  SCATTITUDE         (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of SHE'S ALL SCAT by SCAT DADDY)
4  EVELYN LOUISE         (oliver victori)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of YOUNGEST DAUGHTER by THE FACTOR)
SCR  VICTORY WALTZ Jul16         (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 119 20.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of VIENNA'S WALTZ by FREUD)
6  BIRKIN GIRL         (colebrook)TORRES A 119 12.00 ★    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BLAME THE FROG by BLAME)
7  BOIS BLANC Jul13 May11 Apr26     (wojczynski jus)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 4.00 14% 6.20    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of FLORIAN by TWIN TIME)
8  SHE'S ALL CHARM         (harty eo)RODRIGUEZ A 119 3.50 22% 3.50    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of TOO CHARMING by BERNARDINI)
9  CHAMPAGNE ON ICE         (wilkes ia)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
  (by FROSTED out of TOO MUCH DETAIL by OVERANALYZE)
10  MISS LONELLE         (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 15.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of CHARLENE'S PAL by PROUD CITIZEN)
11  BARBARINA Jul21 Jun28       (jazdzewski)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by UNIFIED out of DESTINATION LOVE by FRIESAN FIRE)
12  DESIGN         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of LONG VIEW by GALILEO)
13  TIGER DIVISION         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of KOOL KAT by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  AIRFORCE LIGHTNING         (puhich mike)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 15.00    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of SASHAY by STROLL)
SCR  RHAENYS         (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 119 10.00    
  (by HIGHER POWER out of KODIAC GAL by KODIAC)
SCR  TICKIN TIME BLONDE         (oliver vic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 15.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of BLONDE BOMBER by FORT LARNED)
 
ELP-8   08/12/2024 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($76K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ELUSIVE TARGET Jul14 Jun19 May18 Mar30 Mar01 (maker michae)TORRES A 124 2.50 38% 1.70    
2  MIGHTY MESSAGE Jun09 Apr20 Mar08 Feb08 Dec16 (amoss tho)TORRES A 118 4.50    
3  HORACE MANN Jul04 Apr17 Oct28 Sep04 Jul23 (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 124 3.50 30% 2.40    
4  ONTHESTAGE Jun29 May18 Apr13 Mar22 Feb02 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 10.00    
5  EXPENSIVE CUT Jun29 May31 Feb09 Jan13 Nov10 (morse rand)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  MAN IN THE CAN Jul17 May30 May04 Apr14 Mar22 (moquett ronal)MORALES EDGAR 122 5.00 6% 15.60    
7  GILMORE Jul22 Apr21 Mar02 Jan27 Dec23 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 4.00    
 
ELP-9   08/12/2024 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMERICAN RAIDER Jul13 Jun19 May23 Apr27 Mar21 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 120 20.00    
2  RANSOMWARE Jun20 May31 Apr21 Jun11 May21 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 123 5.00 ★    
3  DOUBLE YOUR MONEY Jul20 Jun13 May01 Mar30 Jan12 (lynch bria)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 64% 0.60    
4  SAINT IN THE CITY Jun06 Apr28 Mar16 Apr29 Feb25 (mott william)TORRES A 123 4.00 10% 9.00    
5  WASHINGTON'S UNION Jul28 Jun15 May23 Apr12 Nov04 (pino mich)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  RIGEL May25 Apr21 Mar06 Feb03 Jan04 (sancal murat)GRAHAM J 123 6.00 ★    
SCR  HASKELLED Jul28 Jul20 May25 May14 Apr27 (van thoma)MACHADO LUAN 123 10.00    
8  RED LINE OVERDRIVE Jun12 May26 Apr12 Mar10 Feb24 (kubinova )TORRES A 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
9  LEAD FOOT Jul28 Jun14 May26 May10 Apr27 (gonzal)LOPEZ EDUARDO 118 30.00    
10  CELESTIAL JOY (GB) Jul19 Jul02 Jun12 May21 Mar24 (estvanko richard)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
11  GOLDEN BUCK Jul28 Jun13 May26 Apr27 Mar28 (castanon jose )CASTANON L 118 15.00    
12  MR. FAVERSHAM Jul28 Jul04 Apr14 Mar20 Mar02 (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 30.00    
13  MERLOTTI Jul15 Jun23 Jun09 Apr14 Nov18 (wainwrigh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 20.00    
SCR  TRACK TYRANT Jan04         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
SCR  GIOVANNINO Jul06 Jun05 Mar22 Jan26 Dec29 (davis chri)CORRALES GERARDO 123 12.00    
SCR  IBN AL ARABI Jul28 Jul04 Jun10     (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.