The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Monday - May 27, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (4/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $5.92 $5.92 -0.08
CD-2   Win (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 0 $8.24 -6.00
CD-3   Win (6/8/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 1 $4.92 $4.92 -1.08
CD-4   Win (2/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $3.22 $3.22 -2.78
CD-5   Win (13/12/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 12 1 1 $22.84 $22.84 14.84
CD-6   Win (1/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 0 $16.58 -6.00
CD-7   Win (9/5/1/2/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 9 1 1 $8.86 $8.86 -1.14
CD-8   Win (11/2/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 0 $6.00 -8.00
CD-9   Win (1/2/11/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 1 1 1 $5.30 $5.30 -4.70

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   05/27/2024 5610ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:243 :48 1:12 1:37   1:433   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COOKE CREEK 4 1 11 1½ 1nk 1½ 12 (o'dwyer jeremiah)ORTIZ L 124 3.50 26% 2.90 1.96 W
WINSTON WOLF 3 2 21 2½ 2nk 2½ 22 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 124 5.00 29% 2.50 7.60 P
HE'S GOT SWAGGER 2 3 4 5 4 3 3 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 124 2.00 1.65  
OUR DREAM RYE'D 5 4 33 32 3 4 4 (walden willia)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 3.00 2.36  
HARLEEZY 1 5 5 4 5 56 5 (hartlage g)ELLIOTT JANE 124 6.00 5% 19.00 10.83  
SCR  LONG CROW               (corrigan jim)GRAHAM J 124 6.00    
 
CD-2   05/27/2024 5280ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:222 :444 1:091 1:221   1:353   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SILVER HEIST 5 3 32 3 3 21 1hd (asmussen steven )ROSARIO JOEL 124 4.00 3.12  
ASMODEUS 2 2 1½ 1½ 1nk 11 2hd (morey e)ORTIZ L 124 2.00 18% 4.70 1.87 P
DOUBLE BARREL 3 1 2½ 2½ 2nk 31 3 (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 2.50 53% 0.90 2.15 S
JR'S GIFT 1 5 57 5 5 56 46 (andrade hugo)CEDILLO ABEL 124 8.00 4.13  
GLUCKSTADT 4 4 43 42 4 44 5 (haran john)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 10.00 5% 19.00 8.12  
SCR  KANSAS COMET               (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.50    
 
CD-3   05/27/2024 3300ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:222 :464       :594   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DAISY DUKE 5 3 76 6   42 1 (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 3.50 41% 1.40 1.46 W
MOOCHIE GIRL 6 4 5 5   2 2 (colebrook ben)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 12.90 P
MEUCCI'S REVENGE 4 6 21 1nk   1 3 (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00 5.48  
GRACE ON GRACE 2 2 42 42   3 4 (demeritte larry)CASTANON L 119 4.00 5% 19.00 4.23  
10  THE FEISTY ONE 9 8 8 7   76 5 (leitch daniel)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 19.54  
KISS CAM 7 7 3 3   53 66 (sweezey kent)TORRES A 119 3.00 36% 1.80 5.42  
CALCETINES 8 9 9 8   87 7 (fernandez kel)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 15.00 52.87  
HAVEN'T A RED CENT 3 5 11 2nk   6 820½ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 11.14  
MADEMM COCO 1 1 65 9   912 929 (brinkerhoff)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00 10.84  
SCR  MIAVANA               (ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
 
CD-4   05/27/2024 5280ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:24 :47 1:104 1:23   1:352   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAXED 2 3 3 4 4 1nk 1 (morse randy )HERNANDEZ J 122 2.00 34% 2.00 0.61 W
BRAGANZA 3 5 4 3½ 3.2 2nk 2 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 4.75  
CONDENSATION 6 2 1nk 2nk 2nk 31 3 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 3.50 4.22  
UNIFYING 1 1 2nk 1nk 1nk 4 4 (mott riley)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.00 30% 2.40 5.54  
NAPA CANDY 5 4 5 6 6 6 511¾ (oliver victoria)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00 5% 19.00 18.03  
BE LIKE WATER 4 6 6 5 5 5 612¾ (oliver victoria)CHUAN MARTIN 122 20.00 42.99  
SCR  TWO ITEM SAVER               (correas ignacio )ORTIZ L 122 8.00    
 
CD-5   05/27/2024 5610ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($175K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:24 :471 1:104 1:354   1:422   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  FIVE STAR GENERAL 6 1 11 11 11 1 1 (forster t)LANERIE J 122 6.00 18% 4.60 10.42 W
13  KUPUNA 7 2 21 21 21 2 2 (calhoun will)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.00 33% 2.00 1.56 P
UNCLE JAKE 4 5 32 3 32 3 3 (vaccarezza carlo)ROSARIO JOEL 122 5.00 15% 5.70 2.73 S
CLASSIC CAUSEWAY 3 6 5 43 5 46 410¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 5.57  
11  ARCHIE THE GIZA 5 3 4 54 4 57 512¼ (medina robert)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00 9.54  
GENTLE SOUL 2 7 7 77 6 615 628 (calhoun wil)LEPAROUX R 122 8.00 5% 19.00 11.73  
AH JEEZ 1 4 67 6 7 717 743 (o'neill doug)ORTIZ L 122 4.00 6.07  
SCR  ACCREDIT               (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 124 3.50    
SCR  FRONT RUN THE FED               (caramori caio)TORRES A 122 20.00    
SCR  FUERTEVENTURA               (thomas jonatha)GEROUX FLORENT 124 6.00    
SCR  HAPPY AMERICAN               (pessin l)LANERIE J 122 12.00    
SCR  HARLAN ESTATE               (beckman whitw)CANNON DECLAN 124 6.00    
SCR  U. S. ARMY               (caramori ca)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 30.00    
 
CD-6   05/27/2024 5280ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:23 :453 1:093 1:221   1:35   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STOWAWAY 5 4 4 4 3 2½ 1¼ (beckman whitw)GARCIA MARTIN 124 15.00 7.29  
SHOPPER'S REVENGE 6 3 11 11 1nk 1½ 2¼ (asmussen steven )ROSARIO JOEL 124 2.00 1.49  
GLEN AIRY 2 2 54 63 5 5 3 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00 5% 19.00 5.16 S
BRIGADE COMMANDER 1 1 21 3 42 32 4 (stewart dallas)LANERIE J 124 2.50 50% 1.00 3.12  
HAVILDAR 4 6 3 21 2nk 4 5 (dutrow e)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00 16% 5.30 2.92  
CALRISSIAN 3 5 6 53 6 65 6 (haran john)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 20.00 31.72  
SCR  BEAUMONT RED               (desormeaux keith)RIQUELME J 126 6.00    
SCR  BEYOND STOKED               (lynch a)ORTIZ L 118 8.00    
 
CD-7   05/27/2024 3630ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:214 :45 :571     1:034   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SURVEILLANCE 9 7 65 5   1½ 1¾ (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 121 5.00 27% 2.80 3.43 W
MACRON 6 6 9 9   6 2¾ (haran john)BARBOSA CARLOS 116 20.00 15.18  
TWO EAGLES RIVER 5 4 5 6   4 3 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 5.00 20% 3.90 2.79 S
IMPROBABLE JOURNEY 8 1 42 4   3½ 4 (shirer matt)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 20.00 5% 19.00 13.62  
AWESOME AARON 7 8 8 7   7 5 (green troy)HERNANDEZ J 121 20.00 39.67  
LUDWIG 4 5 31 2nk   2½ 6 (bauer a)ORTIZ L 121 5.00 2.33  
COMISKEY PARK 2 9 7 8   9 7 (hernandez a)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 123 10.00 10% 8.70 17.54  
ADIOS GARY 3 3 2½ 3.2   5 8 (davis d)JIMENEZ ALBIN 125 15.00 13.39  
BRITERDAYZAHEAD 1 2 1½ 1nk   8 913¼ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 11% 7.90 5.87  
SCR  FAVORITE OUTLAW               (hartman chris)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 2.50    
 
CD-8   05/27/2024 3960ft DIRT FAST Winning Colors Purse ($250K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:21 :442 :563     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CLEARLY UNHINGED 3 4 2nk 1   1 1 (asmussen steven )ROSARIO JOEL 118 4.00 2.00  
11  DAZZLING BLUE 8 6 6 43   4 2 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 55% 0.80 1.57 P
UNSUNG MELODY 5 2 5 5   5 3 (ortiz ale)TORRES A 118 20.00 44.97  
10  LEELOO 7 5 42 2   2 4 (correas iv)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00 20.89  
HAPPY AM I 6 1 3 3   3 5 (stewart dall)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00 7.64  
POSITANO SUNSET 4 7 8 8   7 64 (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 118 12.00 9.03  
ROYAL SPA 1 8 7 6   6 7 (brisset ro)SANTANA JR 118 8.00 8% 10.90 5.61  
B G WARRIOR 2 3 1nk 7   813¼ 821½ (andrade hugo)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 12.00 11% 7.80 16.38  
SCR  BACKYARD MONEY               (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
SCR  MISS ARLINGTON               (williamson b)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 20.00    
SCR  SPIRIT WIND               (joseph a)ORTIZ L 120 3.00    
 
CD-9   05/27/2024 4620ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:222 :45 1:094     1:224   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WORLD RECORD 1 2 11 11   14 1 (brisset rodolp)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 25% 3.00 1.65 W
MOBSTER 4 9 21 21   24 2 (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 124 12.00 8% 12.00 16.05 P
11  TERM 11 5 32 32   3 37 (drury jr)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 21% 3.80 2.43 S
TOP GUN ROCKET 6 10 8 9   58 4 (mott riley)ORTIZ L 118 5.00 5.24  
10  STAR TOPPER 10 8 11 1010¼   711 5 (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 15.00 56.75  
12  HE'S A JOKER 12 6 5 43   4 610¾ (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00 28.02  
CAT ON TIME 5 7 7 76   610 711¾ (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 124 15.00 5% 19.00 41.69  
D'ORO LEMON 8 11 1217¼ 1218¼   1217½ 816½ (stewart da)SANTANA JR 124 10.00 31.75  
SESAME STREEK 7 1 6 66   812½ 917¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 22.90  
MIDWAY LIGHTS 2 3 9 1110¼   1014½ 1018¾ (dutrow rich)LEPAROUX R 124 6.00 22% 3.50 9.57  
STONE COLD RUNNER 3 4 42 5   914½ 1119½ (pompell rob)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 118 20.00 73.44  
LORD DIAMOND 9 12 10 87   1116½ 1226 (asmussen steven )ROSARIO JOEL 118 10.00 13.32  
SCR  LAKE SUPERIOR               (dutrow e)ORTIZ L 118 10.00    
SCR  LOU'S LEGACY               (andrade hugo)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 10.00    
SCR  REMARKABLE MO               (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 124 12.00    
SCR  TEMECULA               (walsh p)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.