Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 16, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (2/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $7.48  
CD-2   Win (2/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $34.80 $34.80 28.80
CD-3   Win (2/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $3.28 $3.28  
CD-4   Win (8/4/10/2/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 4 1 1 $57.14 $57.14 47.14
CD-5   Win (2/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $7.88 $7.88 1.88
CD-6   Win (7/6/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 0 $18.58  
CD-7   Win (1/2/7/6/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 2 1 1 $11.80 $11.80 1.80
CD-8   Win (6/7/9/3/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 5 1 0 $7.90  
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   05/16/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
See original race card.
:252 :504 1:15 1:391   1:453   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  SANT' ANTIMO 4 4 11 1½ 1½ 11 1½ (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 124 2.00 2.74  
3  DONTKISSDAMINISTER 3 5 53 53 53 31½ 2½ (sanchez ama)LEPAROUX R 124 4.50 3.89  
1  LEGENDARY LORE 1 3 31 31½ 32 42 31½ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 124 1.60 18% 4.70 0.95 S
2  HUNTINGTON 2 2 21 2½ 2½ 21 43 (delacruz meji)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 3.00 43% 1.30 5.36  
6  READY PURSUIT 6 1 42½ 42 42 54½ 57 (gonzalez rei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 15.00 24.29  
5  CRIMINAL DEFENSE 5 6 65 66 69 612½ 619 (barnett c)GRAHAM J 124 15.00 5% 19.00 28.90  
 
CD-2   05/16/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:29
See original race card.
:222 :452       :58   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  ENDURING SPIRIT 2 1 11½ 11   12 11 (ramos rafael)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00 5% 19.00 16.40 W
8  CONQUERING CAT 6 3 32 21   22 21 (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 3.59  
4  BOB'S CARROT 3 2 21½ 33   34½ 36¾ (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 3.00 23% 3.40 7.91 S
2  EMPRESS JULIA 1 4 43 54½   57½ 410 (ward wesle)RODRIGUEZ A 116 2.00 35% 1.90 0.60  
6  LEBOWSKI 4 5 53 44   46½ 511½ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 3.50 5.17  
7  PATRIOTIC JERRELL 5 6 610 612½   614 615½ (hancock jack)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00 23.84  
SCR  BAYTOWN BEATLE               (mcentee paul)ASHTON GAVIN 119 20.00    
SCR  BAYTOWN SUNDANCE               (mcentee pau)BEALMEAR C 112 12.00    
 
CD-3   05/16/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:58
See original race card.
:212 :441 :563     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  PRO OXIDANT 2 5 54½ 55   34 11 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.80 69% 0.40 0.64 W
3  CHATTALOT 3 3 1nk 1nk   13 21 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 4.93  
1  BLUE KENTUCKY 1 6 611 69½   66½ 31½ (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 8% 11.40 6.25 S
6  BACKSIDE BUZZ 6 1 2nk 2nk   23 44¼ (vance thoma)TORRES A 120 4.00 8.43  
5  GO WEST 5 2 44 34   55½ 56½ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 3.50 5.47  
4  CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK 4 4 33½ 44½   44½ 66½ (lauer michael)GRAHAM J 118 15.00 5% 19.00 25.08  
 
CD-4   05/16/2024 3300ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
See original race card.
:22 :444       :562   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  MOONLIT LADY 3 1 11½ 1½   12 13½ (gutierrez )SANTANA JR 118 15.00 20% 4.00 27.57 W
10  MOON SPUN 9 5 63¼ 52   43½ 23½ (lynch a)GRAHAM J 120 10.00 17% 4.90 6.67 P
3  PAROLA SICURA 2 2 41¾ 2½   22 34¼ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00 7.96  
8  TWIRL AROUND 7 3 52¼ 42   33 45½ (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 30% 2.30 1.56  
5  FOOLISH 4 11 84¾ 73¼   64½ 56¼ (caramori ca)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 20.00 19.64  
6  OUR KEEPSAKE 5 9 116¾ 117   86½ 67 (lukas wayne)TORRES A 118 6.00 20.73  
1  EMPIRES PRINCESS 1 4 73¾ 83¼   53½ 77½ (stewart dallas)LANERIE J 123 12.00 21.86  
9  BOURBON BREEZE 8 8 95¼ 95¼   108 810 (mott riley)TORRES A 118 15.00 5% 19.00 32.23  
12  RHAPSODY 11 7 31½ 31   75½ 910½ (thomas jonatha)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 3.00  
7  NORMANJITO (FR) 6 10 106¾ 105½   118½ 1011½ (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00 10.39  
11  BOBBIE SOX 10 6 21½ 62¼   97 1113 (gonzalez re)BEALMEAR C 116 20.00 24.20  
SCR  ANTIQUE SILVER               (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
SCR  MAKEUP               (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 8.00 10% 8.70    
SCR  ROYAL FLOWER               (asmussen steven )ROSARIO JOEL 123 6.00    
SCR  SANDRA D               (antonucci jen)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 20.00    
SCR  THESE APPLES               (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 20.00    
 
CD-5   05/16/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:56
See original race card.
:223 :452 1:104     1:173   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROSIA BAY 1 3 42 42   2½ 13¾ (morey e)MACHADO LUAN 123 6.00 32% 2.10 2.94 W
5  MUSICAL PRAYER 4 1 3½ 3½   1½ 23¾ (vaccarezza ca)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 3.00 3.89  
4  EDGE OF TOWN 3 4 52¼ 54   44 33¾ (pessin neil )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 15.00 15.61  
2  THEROANRUNNER 2 5 1½ 1nk   31½ 47¼ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 123 2.50 38% 1.60 1.27  
6  WONDER OF YOU 5 2 2½ 2nk   54 513¼ (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 4.00 5% 19.00 2.93  
SCR  MUSICAL NOTE               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00    
 
CD-6   05/16/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:25
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:111     1:242   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAYTOWN LOVELY 1 6 62¼ 64¾   2½ 1hd (mcentee pau)BEALMEAR C 116 15.00 8.29  
4  THE BIG CALHOUNA 4 3 2nk 2nk   1½ 2hd (santamaria car)BARBOSA CARLOS 113 5.00 8.11  
3  CRYSTAL SYMPHONY 3 7 51¼ 42   33½ 36¼ (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 118 4.00 11% 8.30 6.76 S
7  CHANISA 7 4 31 3½   55½ 411¼ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 123 2.50 47% 1.10 1.46  
5  ALMOND FUDGE 5 1 1nk 1nk   44 511¾ (gutierrez faus)TORRES A 118 4.50 3.57  
6  SHE'S SPLENDID 6 2 72½ 52¼   68 618¼ (tomlinson a)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 16% 5.40 4.42  
2  LITTLE SASS 2 5 41¼ 76¾   712½ 723 (demeritte larry)CASTANON L 118 6.00 5% 19.00 16.48  
 
CD-7   05/16/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
See original race card.
:213 :442 :562     1:09   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  CHAMPLIN 2 2 31 31½   11½ 12¼ (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 5.00 23% 3.30 4.90 W
1  ARRO SMASH 1 5 41½ 42   43 22¼ (bauer philip )CONCEPCION AXEL 121 3.50 30% 2.40 6.49 P
8  RADICAL RIGHT 8 9 94 64   53½ 34½ (moquett e)BEJARANO R 123 15.00 6.67  
7  LARK'S MISCHIEF 7 3 2nk 1½   21½ 45¾ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 20% 3.90 3.96  
6  SWOT ANALYSIS 6 1 1nk 2½   31½ 56½ (casse mark)TORRES A 121 10.00 5% 19.00 16.05  
9  FLOKI'S FLIGHT 9 6 72 53½   66 66¾ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 8.00 10.59  
10  MIDNIGHT ESCAPE 10 8 84 86½   77½ 78½ (brown paul )HERNANDEZ J 121 30.00 31.44  
5  LOFTY ADJUDICATOR 5 7 104 108½   88 89 (navarrete anna)MCKEE J 121 10.00 5% 19.00 12.39  
4  ECHO AGAIN 4 4 51¾ 75   98¼ 918¼ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 121 6.00 6.37  
3  MIDNIGHT TAXES 3 10 61¾ 98   1010¾ 1019¼ (hartman chris)GEROUX FLORENT 123 4.50 4.21  
 
CD-8   05/16/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:23
See original race card.
:231 :463 1:121 1:244   1:372   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  ELLIPTIC (IRE) 5 4 51¾ 52 51¼ 21½ 11½ (vaccarezza ca)CONCEPCION AXEL 125 3.00 2.95  
3  YO LEVEN 3 9 41½ 41½ 3.2 11½ 21½ (baker james)LANERIE J 118 15.00 7% 12.50 17.02 P
10  EVERMORE 10 3 3½ 31 2nk 32½ 36¾ (correas ign)TORRES A 118 15.00 15.67  
9  MOR HAPPY HOURS 9 5 62¼ 62½ 4¾ 44½ 410¾ (vance d)BARBOSA CARLOS 120 4.50 12% 7.70 7.74  
2  TANDI SUE 2 8 73¾ 94½ 73¼ 67 513 (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 8.00 15.25  
4  CORRI FELICE 4 2 1nk 1½ 1nk 56 617¼ (puhich mike)TORRES A 125 12.00 5% 19.00 11.69  
8  SHE'S ARODEOQUEEN 8 6 94¾ 73 83¼ 79½ 723 (tomlinson mi)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 12.00 7.60  
1  TIZ SWEET EMOTION 1 7 84¼ 83½ 96¾ 913½ 831¼ (baker james)GRAHAM J 118 4.00 3.66  
6  GREYHOUND STATION 6 1 2nk 2½ 61¾ 811½ 936½ (pino v)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 33% 2.00 4.21  
7  WHERE IS SHE (GB) 7 10 106¼ 105½ 109¼ 1016½ 1040¾ (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 12% 7.70 13.93  
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.