Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 16, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/5)-(2/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/5)-(2/1/5)-(2/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/5)-(2/4/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/5)-(2/4/3)-(2/1/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-2   WIN (2/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/3)-(2/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/3)-(2/4/3)-(2/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/3)-(2/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/4/3)-(2/1/4)-(8/4/10/2/9) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/4)-(2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/4)-(8/4/10/2/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/1/4)-(8/4/10/2/9)-(2/1/6) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-4   WIN (8/4/10/2/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/4/10/2/9)-(8/4/10/2/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/4/10/2/9)-(8/4/10/2/9)-(8/4/10/2/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/4/10/2/9)-(2/1/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/4/10/2/9)-(2/1/6)-(7/6/3/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (2/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/6)-(2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/6)-(7/6/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/6)-(7/6/3/2)-(1/2/7/6/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (7/6/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/3/2)-(7/6/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/3/2)-(7/6/3/2)-(7/6/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/3/2)-(1/2/7/6/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/6/3/2)-(1/2/7/6/5)-(6/7/9/3/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-7   WIN (1/2/7/6/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/2/7/6/5)-(1/2/7/6/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/2/7/6/5)-(1/2/7/6/5)-(1/2/7/6/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/2/7/6/5)-(6/7/9/3/4) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/7/9/3/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/7/9/3/4)-(6/7/9/3/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/7/9/3/4)-(6/7/9/3/4)-(6/7/9/3/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/16/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEGENDARY LORE Apr21 Apr05 Mar09 Feb18 Feb10 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 124 1.60 18% 4.70    
2  HUNTINGTON Apr23 Mar20 Feb22 Feb01 Jan04 (delacruz me)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 3.00 43% 1.30    
3  DONTKISSDAMINISTER Mar22 Feb21 Oct20 Sep01 Jul30 (sanchez a)LEPAROUX R 124 4.50    
4  SANT' ANTIMO May02 Apr11 Mar01 Feb03 Dec09 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 124 2.00    
5  CRIMINAL DEFENSE Mar07 Jan25 Jan04 Nov26 Aug23 (barnett c)GRAHAM J 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  READY PURSUIT Apr27 Mar14 Mar01 Feb09 Dec21 (gonzalez r)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 15.00    
 
CD-2   05/16/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BAYTOWN BEATLE Apr21         (mcentee paul)ASHTON GAVIN 119 20.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of SONG SUNG TRUE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
2  EMPRESS JULIA         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 116 2.00 35% 1.90    
  (by UNCLE MO out of PRINCESINHA JULIA by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
3  ENDURING SPIRIT Apr10         (ramos rafae)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of LIFE STARTS by INTO MISCHIEF)
4  BOB'S CARROT         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 3.00 23% 3.40    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of NOELLE'S MISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  BAYTOWN SUNDANCE May09 Apr21       (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 112 12.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of COWGIRL MALLY by GONE WEST)
6  LEBOWSKI         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 3.50    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of BECKY'S BEST by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
7  PATRIOTIC JERRELL         (hancock j)CORREA L 119 10.00    
  (by COAL FRONT out of FOOLISH PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
8  CONQUERING CAT         (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50    
  (by GAME WINNER out of COY CAT by HOLD THAT TIGER)
 
CD-3   05/16/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLUE KENTUCKY Dec29 Nov09 Oct18 Sep22 Jun10 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 8% 11.40    
2  PRO OXIDANT Mar14 Jan19 Nov23 Oct28 Aug25 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.80 69% 0.40    
3  CHATTALOT Mar29 Oct02 Sep07 Aug04 Jul04 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 118 3.00    
4  CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK Apr21 Mar14 Dec29 Nov15 Sep11 (lauer michael)GRAHAM J 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  GO WEST Mar14 Feb04 Jan19 Nov26 Nov17 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 3.50    
6  BACKSIDE BUZZ Apr20 Apr07 Mar22 Mar09 Feb11 (vance tho)TORRES A 120 4.00    
 
CD-4   05/16/2024 3300ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EMPIRES PRINCESS Apr20 Mar03 Jan25 Jan07 Dec10 (stewart dallas)LANERIE J 123 12.00    
SCR  MAKEUP Oct19 Aug26       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 8.00 10% 8.70    
3  PAROLA SICURA Apr20 Mar13 Feb29     (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
4  MOONLIT LADY Apr12 Mar24       (gutierre)SANTANA JR 118 15.00 20% 4.00    
5  FOOLISH Apr06 Jul16 Jun24 Apr30 Mar17 (caramori )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 20.00    
6  OUR KEEPSAKE Apr26 Apr04 Mar15 Feb16 Feb02 (lukas wayn)TORRES A 118 6.00    
7  NORMANJITO (FR) Apr06         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00    
8  TWIRL AROUND Apr20 Jan26 Dec23 Nov11 Oct06 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 30% 2.30    
9  BOURBON BREEZE Apr05 Feb10 Dec07 Nov10 Oct06 (mott rile)TORRES A 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  MOON SPUN Mar29 Mar08       (lynch a)GRAHAM J 120 10.00 17% 4.90    
11  BOBBIE SOX Apr20 Aug08 May27 Apr07 Mar10 (gonzalez )BEALMEAR C 116 20.00    
12  RHAPSODY Apr19 Oct08 Sep16 Aug20 Jul01 (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50    
SCR  THESE APPLES Apr19 Mar30 Feb21 Jan31 Dec20 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 20.00    
SCR  ANTIQUE SILVER Apr12 Mar15       (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
SCR  SANDRA D Feb28 Feb11 Jan13 Nov09 Oct18 (antonucci j)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 20.00    
SCR  ROYAL FLOWER Apr20 Mar03 Jun25 Jun18 May19 (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 123 6.00    
 
CD-5   05/16/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROSIA BAY Apr13 Mar09 Feb21 Mar02 Jan28 (morey william )MACHADO LUAN 123 6.00 32% 2.10    
2  THEROANRUNNER Apr13 Feb24 Jan25 Jan01 Dec03 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 123 2.50 38% 1.60    
SCR  MUSICAL NOTE Feb10 Jan27       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00    
4  EDGE OF TOWN Dec23 Nov13 Oct25 Oct12 Aug31 (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 15.00    
5  MUSICAL PRAYER Mar06 Nov10 Oct28 Sep24   (vaccarezza )CONCEPCION AXEL 123 3.00    
6  WONDER OF YOU Feb23 Jan06 Nov18     (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 4.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-6   05/16/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAYTOWN LOVELY Apr17 Feb07 Jan03 Dec06 Dec31 (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 116 15.00    
2  LITTLE SASS Apr25 Nov08 Oct11 Sep27 Jun17 (demeritte larr)CASTANON L 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  CRYSTAL SYMPHONY Apr17 Jan25 Dec13 Aug13 May26 (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 118 4.00 11% 8.30    
4  THE BIG CALHOUNA Apr21 Apr07 Mar17 Jan26 Dec16 (santamaria c)BARBOSA CARLOS 113 5.00    
5  ALMOND FUDGE Jan12 Nov08 Oct06 Sep16 Jul19 (gutierrez fa)TORRES A 118 4.50    
6  SHE'S SPLENDID Apr19 Mar09 Feb08 Jan18 Dec16 (tomlinson michael)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 16% 5.40    
7  CHANISA May02 Feb16 Jan27 Oct19 Sep12 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 2.50 47% 1.10    
 
CD-7   05/16/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARRO SMASH Nov26 Nov02 Sep24 Aug26 Jul30 (bauer phili)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 3.50 30% 2.40    
2  CHAMPLIN Apr21 Feb29 Jan15     (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 5.00 23% 3.30    
3  MIDNIGHT TAXES Apr14 Mar15 Feb25 Feb03 May28 (hartman chri)GEROUX FLORENT 123 4.50    
4  ECHO AGAIN Apr05 Mar03 May06 Mar30 Jan21 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 6.00    
5  LOFTY ADJUDICATOR Apr21 Sep07 Aug05 Jun01 May05 (navarrete anna)MCKEE J 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  SWOT ANALYSIS Apr21 Feb24 Jan28 Aug24 Jul20 (casse mar)TORRES A 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  LARK'S MISCHIEF Apr05 Mar10 Nov12 Sep20 Jul30 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 20% 3.90    
8  RADICAL RIGHT Apr21 Mar14 Jan27 Dec29 Nov23 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 123 15.00    
9  FLOKI'S FLIGHT Aug19 Jul29 Jun25 May28 May13 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 8.00    
10  MIDNIGHT ESCAPE Apr21 Apr06 Jan19 Dec03 Nov02 (brown pau)HERNANDEZ J 121 30.00    
 
CD-8   05/16/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIZ SWEET EMOTION May03 Mar23 Jan10 Nov18   (baker james)GRAHAM J 118 4.00    
2  TANDI SUE Apr14 Mar22 Mar08     (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 8.00    
3  YO LEVEN         (baker james)LANERIE J 118 15.00 7% 12.50    
4  CORRI FELICE Apr26 May05 Apr21     (puhich mike)TORRES A 125 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  ELLIPTIC (IRE) Apr21 Mar28 Mar06     (vaccarezza )CONCEPCION AXEL 125 3.00    
6  GREYHOUND STATION Apr19 Mar08 Jan27 Jan06 Nov25 (pino v)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 33% 2.00    
7  WHERE IS SHE (GB)         (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 12% 7.70    
8  SHE'S ARODEOQUEEN Mar06 Jan10 Dec13 Nov11 Oct13 (tomlinson )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 12.00    
9  MOR HAPPY HOURS May02 Apr14 Mar29 Jan20 Dec11 (vance thomas)BARBOSA CARLOS 120 4.50 12% 7.70    
10  EVERMORE Apr18 Aug01       (correas i)TORRES A 118 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.