Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (1/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $5.24 $5.24  
CD-2   Win (11/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 11 1 1 $4.22 $4.22 0.22
CD-3   Win (5/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 5 1 1 $4.74 $4.74 0.74
CD-4   Win (9/1/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 0 $45.18  
CD-5   Win (2/6/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 0 $5.52  
CD-6   Win (9/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 0 $24.14  
CD-7   Win (8/7/5/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $4.52 $4.52  
CD-8   Win (8/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 8 1 1 $3.92 $3.92  
CD-9   Win (10/2/9/8/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 10 1 1 $9.24 $9.24  
CD-10   Win (3/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $14.68  
CD-11   Win (8/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 8 1 1 $2.30 $2.30  
CD-12   Win (12/10/11/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 0 $10.46  

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/23/2023 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 2 ALL PT-11:30
See original race card.
:241 :491 1:134 1:393   1:463   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MENA 5 3 2 21 2½ 11 13 (caramori caio)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 20% 4.00 1.62 W
TIZZY INDY 2 1 3 42 3 33 23 (desormeaux )HERNANDEZ J 120 4.50 5.92  
LET'S GO MARK 3 2 1 11 1½ 21 35 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00 3.41  
SMOOTHDINI 4 6 65 5 55 46 4 (hartman chris)CONCEPCION AXEL 115 12.00 5% 19.00 15.48  
I'M YOUR MAN 1 5 54 6 6 5 5 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 122 2.50 56% 0.80 2.47  
AMERICUS 6 4 43 32 4 69 612½ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 7.88  
 
CD-2   11/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT-11:58
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:112 1:234   1:364   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  RED RIVER MAGIC 7 4 2nk 11 12 1 111 (hartman chris)CONCEPCION AXEL 116 3.00 70% 0.40 1.11 W
DEFAULT 4 9 6 4 3 2 211 (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 121 15.00 10.89  
13  TAKE SHAPE 9 10 8 63 22 36 315¼ (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 121 10.00 5.65 S
CRIMALDI 3 2 1nk 21 44 4 419¾ (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 124 10.00 21.67  
16  VIOLET FLAME 10 8 9 9 810½ 712 521¾ (wittek karyn)ELLIOTT JANE 121 30.00 71.97  
12  BAG LADY 8 6 5 8 67 611 621¾ (catalano wayn)PETERSON FERRIN 121 15.00 24.83  
WARWOMAN 2 3 4 32 57 510½ 722¾ (torres conce)CORRALES GERARDO 124 12.00 5% 19.00 11.00  
10  TIDAL TACTICS 6 7 10 1010¼ 1013¼ 1016 827½ (hill f)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00 29.94  
UPSWELL 5 5 7 74 910¾ 914½ 928 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 3.84  
CAUSE I'M WILD 1 1 31 5 7 812½ 1030½ (morse randy)LEPAROUX R 121 20.00 10.61  
SCR  BLUE TOPAZ               (flenner and)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 15.00    
SCR  EYES OF GOLD               (demeritte larry)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00    
SCR  MILIEU               (mott william)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
SCR  MUCHO MACHO CHICK               (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00    
SCR  SOUL HEIR               (fields christoph)ASHTON GAVIN 121 15.00    
SCR  STAGFLATION               (baker james)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
 
CD-3   11/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT-12:26
See original race card.
:223 :452 1:104     1:243   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PACHANGA LOCA 2 1 13 1   13 1 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 36% 1.80 1.37 W
THERESASILVERLININ 4 3 33 2   23 2 (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.00 33% 2.10 1.72 P
LOST BIKINI 3 2 23 38   3 3 (reed r)MCKEE J 120 10.00 6.21  
SHELL SHOCK 1 4 413 413   410 4 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 120 2.50 2.51  
SCR  JACKIE'S LOVE               (butche)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 15.00    
SCR  STEEL RACER               (medina robe)LEPAROUX R 120 3.50    
SCR  TENACIOUS LADY               (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00    
 
CD-4   11/23/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT-12:54
See original race card.
:241 :482 1:14 1:401   1:47   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
QUENCIO 2 1 11 11 11 14 112¼ (gutierrez )SANTANA JR 119 15.00 21.59  
TITLE CONTENDER 1 8 52 4 21 24 212¼ (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 114 3.00 25% 2.90 2.24 P
TRACK LIGHT 4 2 96 9 8 48 313 (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 7% 13.90 1.82 S
MASTER OF THE NITE 5 9 8 8 6 58 413 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 37.21  
PATCH O'BRIEN 3 7 6 7 33 36 513¼ (garcia genar)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 16.47  
EAST FROM WEST 7 4 73 6 43 6 617¾ (vance thomas)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00 25.94  
STING MUSIC 8 6 3 53 9 813 725¼ (gowan william)COURT K 119 6.00 5.13  
ULTIMATE STRIKE 9 5 4 21 7 712 826 (pino michae)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.00 40% 1.50 10.57  
DIFFERENT FLAME 6 3 21 31 5 915½ 941¼ (hartman chri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 6% 17.10 6.38  
 
CD-5   11/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:22
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:104     1:242   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STORY HOUR 5 3 2nk 2½   2nk 1½ (medina rober)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 1.76  
ST. BENEDICTS PREP 1 8 7 6   55 2½ (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00 7.31  
GHOSTLY NIGHT 4 2 32 32   3 32 (shirer a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 12.00 21.79  
FILLY CRYSTAL 6 4 1nk 1½   1nk 4 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00 26% 2.90 7.29  
LUNA MOTH 7 5 8 9   77 5 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 8.00 14.59  
LITTLE SISTER SUE 8 9 9 7   44 6 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 5% 19.00 18.13  
PILLBOX 2 7 5 5   6 78 (schultz lin)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.00 34% 1.90 2.09  
SISTER KISSES 9 6 6 8   912½ 818 (garcia genar)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 15% 5.80 10.42  
BALL GOWN 3 1 4 42   811½ 918¾ (shirer mat)SANTANA JR 120 10.00 25.32  
 
CD-6   11/23/2023 5940ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:50
See original race card.
:234 :48 1:124 1:38   1:503   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MUSICAL MISCHIEF 3 1 3 3 3 1 111½ (mccarthy michae)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 11.07  
10  ROSIE'S ALIBI 7 2 1½ 1½ 1nk 2 211½ (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00 4.16  
LITTLE DIXIE 1 7 64 5 5 36 312 (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00 12.23  
WINGS LIKE EAGLES 6 5 4 4 4 5 417¾ (mott i)ACHARD ALEX 121 4.00 36% 1.80 2.22  
SULTRY LASS 5 4 2½ 2½ 2nk 4 518¾ (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00 13% 6.90 5.13  
CANT KEEP ME DOWN 2 6 7 76 6 610½ 620 (maker mich)SANTANA JR 118 4.00 27% 2.70 1.85  
YARBOROUGH 4 3 5 6 7 715½ 727¾ (reed r)MCKEE J 121 15.00 26.51  
SCR  CHA CHA TAP               (milosevic m)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
SCR  EXCELLENT QUESTION               (walsh p)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50    
SCR  HOLA GATA               (brown c)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
SCR  THESTRAL               (amoss thomas)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
 
CD-7   11/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:104 1:233   1:37   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
REDDINGTON 6 3 11 11 1½ 1 1 (walden william)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 66% 0.50 1.26 W
11  BUCKTOWN 9 6 66 7 7 44 2 (west ethan )HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00 20.80  
DAVID'S TUITION 4 1 21 3 5 3 3 (baker james)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00 28.03  
DUAL MONARCHY 5 2 43 42 2½ 2 4 (engler jef)SANTANA JR 118 6.00 7% 12.60 10.56  
JEWELSTOWN 3 10 9 9 8 76 5 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 4.00 5% 19.00 2.87  
PLATINUM GHOST 7 4 3 21 4 5 6 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 7.93  
ONEPARTICULRHARBOR 2 5 1016¼ 1014¾ 1012¾ 1010¾ 7 (glyshaw tim)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 15.00 24.93  
12  CARNIVORE 10 7 54 53 6 6 8 (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 121 4.50 6.69  
INSIGNIS 1 8 88 8 9 9 913¾ (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00 31.17  
10  AMERICAN ICON 8 9 76 6 3 8 1017 (vasquez german )CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00 5% 19.00 28.83  
SCR  MAN'S CHOICE               (fernandez edward)MCKEE J 118 30.00    
SCR  PUNCTUALITY               (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 118 15.00    
 
CD-8   11/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($150K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:47
See original race card.
:224 :453 1:094 1:221   1:351   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BEST ACTOR 5 5 1½ 1 1½ 12 1 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 2.00 61% 0.60 0.96 W
INJUNCTION 2 1 2½ 2 2½ 22 2 (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 121 6.00 4.80  
PRO OXIDANT 3 2 53 5 5 4 3 (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00 5% 19.00 9.85 S
O BESOS 1 3 4 4 3½ 3 4 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 2.77  
PIONEER OF MEDINA 4 4 31 3 44 58 521 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 123 4.00 4.74  
SCR  BUCK MOON               (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 123 20.00    
SCR  GO EMI               (gonzalez lilia)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 20.00    
SCR  TWILIGHT BLUE               (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.50    
 
CD-9   11/23/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:16
See original race card.
:223 :452 1:093     1:161   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  ANGKOR 9 4 2½ 2½   1 1 (bauer a)BEJARANO R 120 4.50 44% 1.30 3.62 W
BOURBON HEIST 3 6 6 65   44 2 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 12.00 5% 19.00 10.95 P
DUCALE 2 5 5 4   54 3 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.50 17% 5.00 5.90 S
AWESOME AARON 5 2 31 3   32 4 (green troy)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00 41.89  
INVULNERABLE 6 3 1½ 1½   2 5 (sharp joe)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 8.00 3.15  
W W CANDY 7 1 9 9   6 6 (quinonez max)LEZCANO ABEL 120 8.00 6% 16.50 12.39  
EMBRACE (IRE) 1 10 10 10   8 7 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 120 30.00 34.56  
MR BOB 4 7 8 87   78 811 (falcone n)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00 7.01  
STRAVA 8 9 75 75   910 923½ (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 11% 7.80 4.42  
12  BLUE LIGHT 10 8 43 53   1012 1024 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 120 15.00 9.90  
SCR  CYCLONE MISCHIEF               (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00    
SCR  GREENER PASTURES               (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 30.00    
 
CD-10   11/23/2023 5940ft TURF RC12 GOOD Cardinal Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:45
See original race card.
:232 :483 1:14 1:384   1:511   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STAR FORTRESS (IRE) 2 5 6 6 6 1½ 110 (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00 6.34  
SAFFRON MOON 6 4 31 32 31 2½ 210 (brown c)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 1.98  
LOVELY PRINCESS 3 6 5 5 5 54 310¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 33% 2.00 4.26 S
JUNCTURE (GB) 5 2 4 43 4 4 412¼ (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 121 2.50 30% 2.30 2.23  
WALKATHON 4 1 1nk 1 11 31 512¾ (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 121 4.00 4.38  
JOYFUL APPLAUSE 1 3 2nk 2 21 611 637¾ (pitts helen)MOJICA O 121 8.00 7% 12.90 16.68  
SCR  TAKE A STAND               (oliver vi)DE CRUZ 121 30.00    
 
CD-11   11/23/2023 5940ft DIRT RC12 FAST Falls City Purse ($400K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:14
See original race card.
:24 :49 1:132 1:374   1:504   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
XIGERA 7 3 3 3 3½ 13 1 (bauer phili)LEPAROUX R 120 0.60 64% 0.60 0.15 W
MUSIC STREET 6 1 2 22 2½ 23 2 (beckman wh)CORRALES GERARDO 121 30.00 49.07  
JAG WARRIOR 4 2 1 12 1½ 33 3 (romans dale)HERNANDEZ J 121 30.00 52.34  
MISTY VEIL 3 7 53 6 5 45 4 (maker j)CHUAN MARTIN 121 12.00 5% 19.00 19.47  
SHEZZ KOLDAZICE 2 4 4 4 6 57 58 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 20.00 30.10  
SKRATCH KAT 1 8 8 87 8 7 68 (bauer phili)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00 20.36  
BELLAMORE 8 6 6 53 41 6 7 (santamaria carl)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00 7.26  
DISTINCTLYPOSSIBLE 5 5 7 75 7 810¼ 816¾ (brown c)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 12.00 11% 8.10 15.61  
SCR  HIDDEN CONNECTION               (calhoun william )PRAT FLAVIEN 121 3.00    
 
CD-12   11/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:43
See original race card.
:222 :454 :574     1:041   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LEGADEMA 5 2 1½ 1nk   1 1 (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 4.23  
OUTSPOKEN 7 1 4 4   2 2 (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 10.15 P
UNO LE 4 3 63 6   44 3 (galindo-tor)CORREA L 119 20.00 68.19  
TAPPIN INTO GENIUS 3 4 97 9   7 4 (leitch dan)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00 5% 19.00 47.53  
10  MISCHIEVOUS MIND 8 11 53 5   66 5 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 32% 2.10 7.48  
12  LADY MOSCATO 10 7 31 3.2   3 6 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 33% 2.00 2.56  
MO ATTITUDE 1 10 11 1010½   910½ 710½ (navarrete anna)MCKEE J 119 15.00 37.91  
PARADE DOWN BROAD 2 5 75 7   88 810¾ (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 5.86  
11  TALE OF LA BEE 9 6 2½ 2nk   5 914 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50 12% 7.30 2.83  
MIRANDA 6 8 8 86   1010¾ 1018¼ (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00 20.52  
13  LADLE 11 9 10 1110½   1116¾ 1128¾ (miller jerome)PETERSON FERRIN 119 15.00 50.23  
SCR  KERLO'S CAUSE               (short thomas)GARCIA F 119 20.00    
SCR  NO BODY LOVES ME               (short thomas)CANUTO THIAGO 119 30.00    
SCR  PLAGNE CHAMPAGNE               (amoss thoma)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.