Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Tuesday - April 30, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (5/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $4.12 $4.12  
CD-2   Win (2/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $11.90  
CD-3   Win (1/2/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $6.12 $6.12  
CD-4   Win (2/6/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 1 $3.28 $3.28  
CD-5   Win (7/6/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 1 $8.32 $8.32 0.32
CD-6   Win (4/7/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 9 1 1 $6.84 $6.84  
CD-7   Win (2/7/4/8/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 1 $17.36 $17.36 7.36
CD-8   Win (10/6/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 10 1 1 $3.62 $3.62  
CD-9   Win (1/13/3/6/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 1 1 1 $4.32 $4.32  
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   04/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:214 :444 :563     1:092   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DREAMSTER 1 4 42 2nk   13 14½ (lightner mar)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.60 27% 2.70 1.06 W
3  MUSIC CITY STAR 2 5 32 42½   44 24½ (antonucci m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 19.00 9.29 P
4  MARGOINABUBBLEBATH 3 3 21 31   34 35 (shirer a)LANERIE J 118 5.00 2.50  
5  BLAME DAY 4 1 11 1nk   23 45½ (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 2.50 46% 1.20 3.95  
6  ROSE PALACE 5 2 57 58   511 518¾ (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 5.97  
SCR  FROZEN SOLID               (lynch a)NELSON TYRONE 118 3.50    
 
CD-2   04/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:241 :474 1:12 1:372   1:441   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  SUNNY ISLE BEACH 3 3 32 33 31 11½ 14¼ (shirer a)CHUAN MARTIN 120 3.50 4.95  
2  JUMP INTO THE FIRE 2 2 11 11 1nk 21½ 24¼ (colebrook ben)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 33% 2.00 0.80 P
1  GUANA CAY 1 5 53 54½ 54 33½ 35¾ (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 5% 19.00 9.21 S
6  LUNA MOTH 5 4 42 43½ 42 44½ 46½ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 2.50 23% 3.30 2.98  
5  AMAZON QUEEN 4 1 21 21 2nk 55½ 512¾ (lauer michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 6.01  
SCR  MY GOOD FORTUNE               (hartman chris)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
 
CD-3   04/30/2024 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:221 :452 1:103     1:171   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONDIMENT GIRL 1 5 2nk 31½   31½ 1nk (atras rob)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 60% 0.70 2.06 W
8  MAZOKU 8 3 31 21   21½ 2nk (butcher james)CALLEJA ANDRES 113 6.00 16.74  
7  FOREVER HOME 7 1 1nk 11   11½ 32½ (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 118 15.00 25.47  
5  GHOSTLY NIGHT 5 6 63¾ 52   43 43½ (shirer a)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 7% 13.20 3.86  
3  ENDLESS 3 7 89¼ 79   66½ 55¾ (adams l)HESS SARA 111 20.00 5% 19.00 38.13  
6  GOSHEN 6 8 77¼ 89¼   88 68¼ (foster eric)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 11.03  
2  SENSE YOU LEFT 2 4 41¼ 42   77½ 79¼ (casse mark)VELAZQUEZ R 120 2.50 8% 11.30 1.90  
4  LEMON BOMB 4 2 51¼ 63   55½ 811¾ (orantes r)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00 6.50  
 
CD-4   04/30/2024 6600ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:233 :48 1:122 1:371   2:022   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  BATTEN DOWN 2 11 12 12 14 18 18¾ (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 1.00 38% 1.60 0.64 W
6  DAILY GRIND 6 74 64½ 43½ 35½ 28 28¾ (lukas wayn)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 26% 2.90 4.46 P
3  MO RUM 3 21 22 22 24 39½ 313¼ (stall albert)LOVEBERRY JARETH 126 8.00 11% 8.50 19.83 S
5  BETTERA 5 42½ 75 76¼ 58 413½ 418½ (stall m)ORTIZ L 126 8.00 5% 19.00 5.84  
1  BRICKLAYER 1 53 32 32 46 514½ 520½ (mccarthy michae)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00 5.59  
4  GET AHEAD NOW 4 64 54 64¼ 611½ 619½ 629 (wilkes r)CONNER TYLER 126 15.00 25.86  
7  LET'S BOUNCE 7 32 43 54 711½ 719½ 730 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00 24.08  
 
CD-5   04/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:234 :481 1:122 1:361   1:422   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  PHILEAS FOGG 6 2 11 11 11 13½ 15¼ (toner j)ORTIZ L 127 3.00 55% 0.80 3.16 W
8  GATLINBURG 7 3 21 21 21 23½ 25¼ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 125 8.00 5% 19.00 15.26 P
4  LUNA VIEJA 3 8 74 52½ 32½ 35½ 38¼ (amoss m)CURTIS BEN 125 12.00 5% 19.00 2.20 S
11  CARCANO 9 7 84½ 84¾ 75¼ 47 410¾ (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 125 12.00 ★ 4.65  
5  MILLERS RITE 4 4 52½ 63 85¾ 59 513½ (vance thoma)BEALMEAR C 118 30.00 19.13  
1  GO BALI GO 1 5 31½ 41½ 63¾ 69½ 615 (nance jonathan)CEDILLO ABEL 125 20.00 42.24  
2  THREE ON THE TREE 2 9 96 95¾ 96¾ 811 715½ (lovell michel)ALVARADO JUNIOR 125 15.00 28.97  
9  STONEMONT REUNION 8 6 42½ 31½ 42½ 710½ 818¼ (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 125 30.00 32.19  
6  BATTLE OF NORMANDY 5 1 63 73¼ 52¾ 911 919¾ (mcgaughey cl)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 1.60 19% 4.40 2.50  
SCR  ALEXIS ZORBA (GB)               (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 125 3.00    
SCR  BERRETTINI               (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 12.00    
SCR  DEGREE OF RISK               (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 125 15.00    
SCR  FREDO               (sano antonio)ALVARADO JUNIOR 125 2.50    
SCR  IDRATHERBEBLESSED               (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 125 12.00    
SCR  OSCAR'S WORLD               (lynch a)ROSARIO JOEL 118 4.00    
SCR  TIVERTON (GB)               (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 125 20.00    
 
CD-6   04/30/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:232 :472 1:122 1:251   1:383   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  DREAMING ALWAYS 7 7 73¼ 61½ 31½ 22½ 11 (forster grant )BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 5.00 15% 5.60 2.42 W
8  ELLA FRANCES 6 5 31 3.2 11 12½ 21 (beckman whitwort)CURTIS BEN 124 6.00 5% 19.00 4.78 P
3  LUBU 2 4 61¾ 51¼ 44 45½ 33 (ramirez ricardo )CONNER TYLER 118 8.00 11.86  
4  COLLECT A LIL 3 3 2nk 1nk 21 33 46 (davis christophe)ORTIZ L 124 1.60 29% 2.50 1.39  
1  MISSY BEE 1 2 51¾ 41¼ 77½ 59 515 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 10.00 13.11  
7  OUTRAGEOUSLY 5 6 41½ 71½ 54½ 610½ 624½ (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50 24% 3.20 5.61  
5  ZERO CLICK 4 1 1nk 2nk 66½ 714½ 731 (norris mike)CANUTO THIAGO 124 30.00 33.06  
SCR  FLORIS               (duvall e)CASTANON L 124 20.00    
SCR  SCOOP               (margolis stephen )COHEN DAVID 118 8.00    
 
CD-7   04/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:24 :481 1:132 1:384   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  PIVOSKY 7 2 51½ 52¼ 42 12½ 1¾ (vance d)LANERIE J 124 5.00 9% 10.20 7.68 W
8  BROUGHTY FERRY 8 5 73 73¾ 62½ 34 2¾ (amoss thomas)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 5% 19.00 6.02 P
1  MO SENSE 1 8 62½ 84¼ 83¾ 22½ 32½ (amoss m)MONCADA IRVING 108 5.00 7.34  
4  MISS TAPPY TONE 4 7 83¼ 63¾ 73½ 55 44½ (hartman chris)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.50 8% 12.10 3.53  
6  CORKAGE FEE 6 1 3½ 2nk 1½ 44 58 (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 24.08  
5  LASERJET 5 9 95¾ 95¾ 93¾ 66½ 69 (antonuik jerr)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 15.00 5% 19.00 14.32  
3  TRANSPARENCY 3 6 41 41¾ 52½ 77½ 710 (esquivel jesus)ORTIZ JR 124 3.00 1.89  
9  LEUCADIA 9 3 2½ 31½ 31½ 99¾ 814¼ (forster grant)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 10.00 11.42  
2  STAIRSTEP TOHEAVEN 2 4 1½ 1nk 2½ 87¾ 919 (sims p)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 52% 0.90 10.94  
 
CD-8   04/30/2024 3300ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:22 :443       :564   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  CLEARLY UNHINGED 6 5 2½ 2nk   11 12¾ (asmussen steven )ROSARIO JOEL 122 1.20 39% 1.60 0.81 W
9  PISTOL 5 4 43 32½   33½ 22¾ (van tho)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 9.28  
6  FILLY CRYSTAL 2 2 1½ 1nk   21 35¼ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00 30% 2.30 5.09 S
7  LAURA'S CHARM 3 3 65 44½   46 46¾ (kerrick lac)LEPAROUX R 122 6.00 16.22  
8  ADMISSIBLE 4 6 54½ 56   56½ 57¾ (d'angelo f)VELAZQUEZ R 122 6.00 5% 19.00 12.75  
4  QUICK MUNNY 1 1 32½ 67½   610½ 621½ (atras rob)ORTIZ L 122 3.50 2.71  
SCR  HOWBOUTDEMAPPLES               (joseph a)ORTIZ JR 122 3.00    
SCR  HURRY UP HANNAH               (cowans d)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
SCR  KRISPY RICE               (walsh d)CEDILLO ABEL 122 20.00    
SCR  QUEEN OF THE MUD (IRE)               (motion gra)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50    
 
CD-9   04/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:212 :45 :571     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GLOBAL STAGE 1 5 41¾ 31½   1½ 13¼ (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 125 1.00 48% 1.10 1.16 W
13  READIER 12 2 52¼ 2½   31 23¼ (lightner mary)ORTIZ JR 125 5.00 16% 5.20 2.82 P
6  BLAST FURNACE 6 4 2nk 1½   2½ 35¼ (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 5% 19.00 24.47 S
8  CAT ON TIME 8 10 1110¼ 97¾   76½ 47 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 125 15.00 42.15  
7  GRAND SAM 7 9 75¼ 85¾   54½ 57¾ (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00 14.58  
10  MALIBLUE 10 3 3.2 41½   43½ 67¾ (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 30.00 38.70  
9  PATRIARCHAL 9 1 63¼ 64½   65 78 (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 11.24  
2  SEVEN TAYLORS 2 11 107¾ 108¾   86½ 89¼ (moger jr)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00 31.59  
12  MO HOPE 11 7 95¾ 75½   97½ 911 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 12.00 5% 19.00 22.52  
3  MIDNIGHT AMBITION 3 6 1nk 52   1012½ 1021¼ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 12% 7.60 11.18  
4  TWO BEERS BY TEN 4 8 85¼ 1110¾   1114½ 1122½ (maker j)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00 11.21  
5  BOZDAGI 5 12 1228¼ 12100   12100 12100 (guida anth)RODRIGUEZ A 125 20.00 54.87  
SCR  BAD BOY FOR LIFE               (wilkes r)ROSARIO JOEL 125 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.