Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Tuesday - April 30, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/3)-(5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/3)-(2/6/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/1/3)-(2/6/1)-(1/2/5/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (2/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/1)-(2/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/1)-(2/6/1)-(2/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/6/1)-(1/2/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/6/1)-(1/2/5/3)-(2/6/3/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/2/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/5/3)-(1/2/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/5/3)-(1/2/5/3)-(1/2/5/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/2/5/3)-(2/6/3/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5/3)-(2/6/3/5)-(7/6/4/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-4   WIN (2/6/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/3/5)-(2/6/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/3/5)-(2/6/3/5)-(2/6/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/3/5)-(7/6/4/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/6/3/5)-(7/6/4/8)-(4/7/9/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-5   WIN (7/6/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/4/8)-(7/6/4/8/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/6/4/8)-(7/6/4/8/11)-(7/6/4/8/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/6/4/8)-(4/7/9/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/6/4/8)-(4/7/9/8)-(2/7/4/8/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-6   WIN (4/7/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/9/8)-(4/7/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/9/8)-(4/7/9/8)-(4/7/9/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/7/9/8)-(2/7/4/8/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/7/9/8)-(2/7/4/8/5)-(10/6/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/7/4/8/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/7/4/8/5)-(2/7/4/8/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/7/4/8/5)-(2/7/4/8/5)-(2/7/4/8/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/7/4/8/5)-(10/6/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/7/4/8/5)-(10/6/8)-(1/13/3/6/12) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-8   WIN (10/6/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/6/8)-(10/6/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (10/6/8)-(10/6/8)-(10/6/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (10/6/8)-(1/13/3/6/12) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-9   WIN (1/13/3/6/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/13/3/6/12)-(1/13/3/6/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/13/3/6/12)-(1/13/3/6/12)-(1/13/3/6/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   04/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DREAMSTER Apr05 Mar09 Jan27 Dec23 Nov24 (lightner m)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.60 27% 2.70    
SCR  FROZEN SOLID Mar16 Oct20 Sep27 Jul19 Jun22 (lynch a)NELSON TYRONE 118 3.50    
3  MUSIC CITY STAR Apr04 Mar09 Jan27 Jan06 Mar17 (antonucci m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  MARGOINABUBBLEBATH Mar08 Dec30 Dec08 Nov08 Sep29 (shirer a)LANERIE J 118 5.00    
5  BLAME DAY Mar30 Mar09 Feb10 Dec07 Nov01 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 2.50 46% 1.20    
6  ROSE PALACE Mar02 Feb03 Jan06 Dec22 Nov18 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
 
CD-2   04/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GUANA CAY Sep03 Jul23 Jun11 May27 May05 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  JUMP INTO THE FIRE Mar09 Aug11 May27 May05 Apr21 (colebrook ben)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 33% 2.00    
SCR  MY GOOD FORTUNE Apr12 Mar07 Feb11 Dec02 Oct25 (hartman chris)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
4  SUNNY ISLE BEACH Mar22 Jan31 Jan01 May05 Apr25 (shirer a)CHUAN MARTIN 120 3.50    
5  AMAZON QUEEN Mar13 Feb15 Jan18 Dec09 Oct15 (lauer mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
6  LUNA MOTH Apr05 Mar22 Mar09 Feb04 Nov23 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 2.50 23% 3.30    
 
CD-3   04/30/2024 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONDIMENT GIRL Mar09 Jan28 Dec12 Nov25 Oct19 (atras rob)TORRES A 118 3.00 60% 0.70    
2  SENSE YOU LEFT Mar27 Mar13 Feb22 Feb04 Dec09 (casse mark)VELAZQUEZ R 120 2.50 8% 11.30    
3  ENDLESS Mar20 Mar02 Jan24 Jan03 Dec08 (adams l)HESS SARA 111 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  LEMON BOMB Mar20 Feb03 Jan25 Dec28 Nov04 (orantes r)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
5  GHOSTLY NIGHT Apr10 Jan28 Jan06 Nov23 Oct20 (shirer a)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 7% 13.20    
6  GOSHEN Apr10 Mar20 Jan24 Nov29 Nov15 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50    
7  FOREVER HOME Apr10 Mar02 Feb18 Jan28 Dec27 (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 118 15.00    
8  MAZOKU Apr10 Mar15 Feb14 Jan03 Dec20 (butcher jame)CALLEJA ANDRES 113 6.00    
 
CD-4   04/30/2024 6600ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRICKLAYER Apr18 Feb17 Dec21     (mccarthy mich)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of HAAS by TIZNOW)
2  BATTEN DOWN Apr06 Feb24 Jan27     (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 1.00 38% 1.60    
  (by TAPIT out of CLOSE HATCHES by FIRST DEFENCE)
3  MO RUM Mar24 Mar07 Feb15     (stall albe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 126 8.00 11% 8.50    
  (by UNCLE MO out of COR COR by SMOKE GLACKEN)
4  GET AHEAD NOW Jan11 Dec10 Oct13     (wilkes r)CONNER TYLER 126 15.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of KAZAMIRA by DYNAFORMER)
5  BETTERA Mar24 Feb22 Jan15 Apr08 Feb18 (stall m)ORTIZ L 126 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BLAME out of RILEY'S CHOICE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
6  DAILY GRIND Mar30 Feb24 Feb03 Dec31 Dec09 (lukas wayn)TORRES A 118 3.50 26% 2.90    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of WALK CLOSE by TAPIT)
7  LET'S BOUNCE Apr13         (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of LET'S ROLL by CURLIN)
 
CD-5   04/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GO BALI GO Mar23 Mar01 Jan26 Dec29 Dec01 (nance jonathan)CEDILLO ABEL 125 20.00    
2  THREE ON THE TREE Sep07 Jul23 Jun17 Apr15 Mar19 (lovell miche)TORRES A 125 15.00    
SCR  FREDO Mar30 Mar03 Feb03 Jan06 Dec09 (sano antoni)ALVARADO JUNIOR 125 2.50    
4  LUNA VIEJA Mar17 Feb12 Jan18 Dec15 Nov16 (amoss m)CURTIS BEN 125 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  MILLERS RITE Apr06 Mar15 Feb19 Jan28 Jan06 (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 118 30.00    
6  BATTLE OF NORMANDY Sep03 Aug05 May19 Apr21 Nov04 (mcgaughey )GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 1.60 19% 4.40    
7  PHILEAS FOGG Mar15 Jan25 Jan04 Oct12 Sep02 (toner j)ORTIZ L 127 3.00 55% 0.80    
8  GATLINBURG Nov08 Oct12 Sep02 Aug02 Jun24 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 125 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  STONEMONT REUNION Mar01 Jan25 Dec08 Nov05 Apr15 (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 125 30.00    
SCR  TIVERTON (GB) Mar29 Mar03 Oct19 Sep30   (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 125 20.00    
11  CARCANO Apr10 Aug26 Aug05 Jul02 Dec24 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 125 12.00 ★    
SCR  BERRETTINI Aug04 Jun22 May28 Apr20 Sep03 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 12.00    
SCR  ALEXIS ZORBA (GB) Apr28 Feb03 Jan18 Dec22 Oct13 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 125 3.00    
SCR  OSCAR'S WORLD Apr05 Mar09 Feb10 Jan06 Dec09 (lynch a)ROSARIO JOEL 118 4.00    
SCR  IDRATHERBEBLESSED Nov24 Nov05 Sep28 Sep10 Aug18 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 125 12.00    
SCR  DEGREE OF RISK Mar23 Aug03 Feb05 Jan02 Nov11 (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 125 15.00    
 
CD-6   04/30/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISSY BEE Apr11 Mar15 Feb29 Jan24 Dec29 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 10.00    
SCR  FLORIS Mar29 Feb16 Jan24 Jan03 Dec13 (duvall william)CASTANON L 124 20.00    
3  LUBU Apr05 Nov17 Oct25 Sep27 Aug12 (ramirez ricard)CONNER TYLER 118 8.00    
4  COLLECT A LIL Mar16 Feb28 Jan31 Jan03 Nov22 (davis christop)ORTIZ L 124 1.60 29% 2.50    
5  ZERO CLICK Mar29 Mar01 Feb08 Jan05 Dec15 (norris mike)CANUTO THIAGO 124 30.00    
SCR  SCOOP Mar16 Feb15 Jan19 Dec31 Nov30 (margolis stephe)COHEN DAVID 118 8.00    
7  OUTRAGEOUSLY Mar20 Feb22 Jan17     (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50 24% 3.20    
8  ELLA FRANCES Mar27 Feb29 Feb03 Jan13 Dec07 (beckman whitwo)CURTIS BEN 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
9  DREAMING ALWAYS Mar16 Feb23 Feb02 Jan07 Apr19 (forster gran)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 5.00 15% 5.60    
 
CD-7   04/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MO SENSE Mar20 Jan27 Nov25 Oct25 Sep29 (amoss thomas)MONCADA IRVING 108 5.00    
2  STAIRSTEP TOHEAVEN Mar18 Nov10 Oct20 Sep29 Jul29 (sims p)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 52% 0.90    
3  TRANSPARENCY Mar23 Jun18 May21 Mar08 Feb09 (esquivel jesu)ORTIZ JR 124 3.00    
4  MISS TAPPY TONE Mar21 Mar07 Feb15 Jan25 Jan04 (hartman chri)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.50 8% 12.10    
5  LASERJET Apr11 Mar16 Feb14 Feb03 Jan06 (antonuik je)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  CORKAGE FEE Apr05 Feb10 Jan10 Nov22 Oct19 (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
7  PIVOSKY Apr19 Mar24 Feb02 Dec30 Nov24 (vance d)LANERIE J 124 5.00 9% 10.20    
8  BROUGHTY FERRY Mar29 Feb01 Dec21 Nov22 Oct27 (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 5% 19.00    
9  LEUCADIA Mar13 Oct25 Sep20 Aug31   (forster gra)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 10.00    
 
CD-8   04/30/2024 3300ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  QUEEN OF THE MUD (IRE) Oct22 Sep21 Aug31     (motion g)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50    
SCR  KRISPY RICE Mar20 Feb21 Jan04 Nov29 Sep18 (walsh d)CEDILLO ABEL 122 20.00    
SCR  HURRY UP HANNAH Mar23 Feb01 Dec20 Nov04 Sep26 (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
4  QUICK MUNNY Apr18 Mar09 Dec17 Dec01 Oct28 (atras rob)ORTIZ L 122 3.50    
SCR  HOWBOUTDEMAPPLES Apr07 Feb24 Jan27 Dec26 Nov03 (joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 122 3.00    
6  FILLY CRYSTAL Apr06 Mar09 Jan31 Dec27 Nov23 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00 30% 2.30    
7  LAURA'S CHARM Feb08 Dec14 Nov16 Oct20 Sep24 (kerrick l)LEPAROUX R 122 6.00    
8  ADMISSIBLE Apr07 Mar16 Feb02 Jan07 Oct28 (d'angelo jose)VELAZQUEZ R 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
9  PISTOL Apr06 Sep21 Aug26 Jul15 May14 (van t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50    
10  CLEARLY UNHINGED Dec26 Nov04 Sep29 Aug05 Jun16 (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 122 1.20 39% 1.60    
 
CD-9   04/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GLOBAL STAGE Apr06 Apr14 Feb10     (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 125 1.00 48% 1.10    
2  SEVEN TAYLORS         (moger ed )LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
3  MIDNIGHT AMBITION Mar13 Feb23 Nov11     (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 12% 7.60    
4  TWO BEERS BY TEN Mar30 Mar01       (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
5  BOZDAGI         (guida an)RODRIGUEZ A 125 20.00    
6  BLAST FURNACE Mar30 Aug19 May13 Apr27   (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  GRAND SAM         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00    
8  CAT ON TIME         (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 125 15.00    
9  PATRIARCHAL Apr17 Mar16 Feb13 Jan12   (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
10  MALIBLUE Mar15         (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 30.00    
SCR  BAD BOY FOR LIFE Mar30 Jan06 Nov18     (wilkes r)ROSARIO JOEL 125 15.00    
12  MO HOPE Sep02 Jun02 Apr28 Jan21 Dec16 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 12.00 5% 19.00    
13  READIER Mar14 Jan07 Oct15     (lightner mary)ORTIZ JR 125 5.00 16% 5.20    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.