Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (3/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 6 1 1 $8.24 $8.24 4.24
CD-2   Win (4/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $15.36  
CD-3   Win (7/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $6.98 $6.98 0.98
CD-4   Win (4/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $7.64 $7.64 1.64
CD-5   Win (1/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $4.06 $4.06  
CD-6   Win (7/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $6.22 $6.22 0.22
CD-7   Win (4/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $7.72  
CD-8   Win (1/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $9.94 $9.94 3.94
CD-9   Win (11/8/6/4/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 12 1 0 $40.72  
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:223 :453 1:113     1:254   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  BETTERING 4 2 2½ 1nk   11½ 12¾ (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 118 8.00 27% 2.70 3.12 W
2  MI OSCURO SECRETO 1 1 46 46   33½ 22¾ (bahena ismael)LAGUNES GABRIEL 118 15.00 6.78  
3  FAMILY FACTOR 2 4 1½ 2nk   21½ 34 (colebrook be)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 45% 1.20 0.53 S
5  POINT AT YOU 3 3 3½ 34   415½ 423¾ (claire alexis)MCKEE J 118 10.00 4.24  
SCR  DUNPHY               (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 1.00    
SCR  NEON DEION               (rivelli larr)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
 
CD-2   11/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:224 :454 1:104     1:242   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  GOSHEN 2 1 12 12   15½ 14½ (esquivel je)CORREA L 118 10.00 6.68  
4  SHE DAZZLE 3 6 58 46½   25½ 24½ (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.50 38% 1.60 1.02 P
1  QUARTERFLASH 1 5 68 610½   59 35¾ (girten tim)MACHADO LUAN 120 2.00 19% 4.30 3.33 S
8  FAIRY CAKES (GB) 6 2 22 22   35½ 48½ (mcentee paul)ASHTON GAVIN 120 10.00 14% 6.10 7.26  
7  EVERYOTHERWON 5 4 46 57   47½ 510¾ (hill f)ELLIOTT JANE 120 8.00 3.61  
6  WILL VIRGINIA DARE 4 3 33½ 34   612½ 619½ (decker anna)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 118 20.00 49.38  
SCR  SET THE PACE               (becker scot)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.50    
SCR  SIS BOOM BOB               (esquiv)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 12.00    
 
CD-3   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:214 :451 :573     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  TROPIC STORM 3 1 2½ 21½   2½ 13 (habeeb j)ASHTON GAVIN 120 2.50 18% 4.60 2.49 W
4  KENTUCKY BOURBON 4 7 74 76½   65 23 (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.00 5.48  
2  GHENT 2 2 1½ 11½   1½ 33½ (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.50 20% 4.00 8.29 S
7  HAROLD'S CLOUD 7 4 63½ 54½   44 44¾ (scherer marianne)ROCCO S 118 4.00 30% 2.30 4.56  
6  SHOTSHELL 6 3 41½ 32   54 56 (shirer mat)SANTANA JR 118 5.00 1.44  
5  ENJOYMENT 5 6 52 43½   33 66 (gorostieta ciri)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 20.88  
1  GOLDEN REIGN 1 5 31½ 65   77 710¾ (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 118 12.00 32.70  
 
CD-4   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:222 :461 :583     1:114   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  DANCING NANCY 4 2 11½ 1½   11½ 1½ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 15% 5.70 2.82 W
7  BLENHEIM BABY 6 1 42½ 2½   21½ 2½ (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00 1.63  
2  FASTA LAVISTA BABY 1 7 63½ 43   33½ 3¾ (scherer marianne)ROCCO S 119 3.50 5.53  
4  JUST AN OPINION 3 4 32 75½   55½ 42½ (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 39% 1.60 2.68  
3  GOLD DEL MAR 2 6 74 65   65½ 52¾ (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 119 6.00 9.49  
8  THE BIG BANSHEE 7 5 52½ 31   45 67½ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 33.43  
6  CITY SHACK 5 3 21½ 53½   77½ 79¾ (burdess terry)ORTIZ ALVIN 119 12.00 10% 8.60 42.72  
SCR  WAMPUS KITTEN               (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00    
 
CD-5   11/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:23 :461 1:104 1:23   1:354   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FREE LOOK 1 4 52¾ 42½ 11 1nk 1½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.80 40% 1.50 1.03 W
8  BEST PERFORMER 4 2 42½ 52½ 21 2nk 2½ (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 23% 3.40 5.43 P
9  TITUBA 5 3 2nk 21 32 33 36¾ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 8.07  
15  CONDONE 6 6 31 32 42 43½ 47 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 2.98  
4  HERINGTON ROCKET 2 1 1nk 11 53½ 55½ 510¼ (navarrete anna)MCKEE J 121 10.00 9% 10.60 8.70  
6  THE CLUB 3 5 63¾ 65½ 68½ 611½ 624¼ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 15.00 8.89  
SCR  SAKE (FR)               (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 12.00    
SCR  STAR FORTRESS (IRE)               (devaux cherie)GEROUX FLORENT 121 10.00    
SCR  OUR DOTSIE               (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
SCR  MINT EDITION               (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 121 20.00    
SCR  EMPIRICAL VIEW               (divito jame)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
SCR  DANCE THE DAY AWAY               (decker anna)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 121 20.00    
SCR  STORM BAY               (devaux cherie)CARROLL DECLAN 118 15.00    
SCR  ALYBAER               (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00    
SCR  AROUND THE SUN               (arnold geor)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
 
CD-6   11/15/2023 6270ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:234 :482 1:122 1:371   1:57   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  ALLEGE 2 5 11 11 1½ 12½ 14¾ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 24% 3.10 2.11 W
1  ETHICAL JUDGEMENT 1 3 42 42½ 42½ 34 24¾ (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 121 3.00 4.51  
6  MAILMAN MONEY 6 1 52½ 53 53 56 36¾ (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 121 10.00 12.35  
7  KEYSTONE FIELD 7 2 32 32 31 22½ 47½ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 28% 2.50 1.77  
4  SEARCH ENGINE 4 4 21 21 2½ 44½ 57½ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 14% 6.10 5.67  
5  NAUTILUS (BRZ) 5 6 73¾ 63½ 64 67 610¼ (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00 15.83  
3  ICARUS 3 7 63½ 74 74½ 78 712 (simms jr)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00 14.51  
 
CD-7   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:214 :451 :572     1:101   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  BOLT ABOVE 2 7 64 52½   2nk 1½ (shirer a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 2.86  
8  VALE 7 1 2½ 11   1nk 2½ (simms mark)SANTANA JR 120 4.00 20% 3.90 6.90 P
4  LORD GRANTHAM 3 4 42 21   3½ 31¾ (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 3.50 28% 2.60 1.58 S
5  HARDY CHOICE 4 2 52½ 31   42 44¾ (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 4.96  
6  MIDWAY MIRACLE 5 6 77 77   57 58½ (short thoma)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 32.72  
1  LOVE SPELL 1 5 31½ 63   67¼ 615½ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 25% 3.10 3.44  
7  GOT THE BOB 6 3 1½ 41½   78¼ 726 (gonzalez rein)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00 54.34  
SCR  DAVID'S TUITION               (baker james)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
 
CD-8   11/15/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:231 :464 1:112 1:362   1:492   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  WIZARD OF WESTWOOD 2 3 26 25 2½ 15½ 18¼ (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00 10% 8.80 3.97 W
8  QUADRA ISLAND 6 1 48½ 58½ 44½ 25½ 28¼ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 4.78  
4  REALLY GOOD 3 6 58½ 48½ 54½ 47 313¼ (maker j)CHUAN MARTIN 118 5.00 25% 2.90 9.30 S
1  FEARLESS SOLDIER 1 5 36½ 37 32 36 413¼ (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 41% 1.40 1.03  
7  KIGALI 5 2 16 15 1½ 57½ 517½ (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 120 8.00 10.54  
5  RARIFIED FLAIR 4 4 610 614 614½ 617½ 627¾ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 5.14  
SCR  OCEAN POINTE               (estvanko richa)RAMOS D 118 6.00    
SCR  TOOFAREASTISWEST               (trombetta mich)GEROUX FLORENT 120 10.00    
 
CD-9   11/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 2 ALL PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:224 :454 1:103     1:172   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  ONE RED CENT 12 1 2½ 1nk   13 11¼ (jazdzewski j)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 19.36  
6  STORMY MESA 6 4 62¾ 52¼   23 21¼ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 23% 3.30 3.29 P
8  CHARLESTON 8 5 31½ 2nk   33½ 34½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 23% 3.30 4.45 S
11  CATALINA CRUSH 11 6 41½ 42   45½ 45 (casse w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 25% 3.10 3.13  
5  GENO'S MYTH 5 2 85¼ 88¼   78 57 (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00 29.05  
9  TIMING DIFFERENCE 9 11 1210¼ 1010¼   88¼ 67¼ (brown chad)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 12.19  
4  SPIN THE BOULEVARD 4 3 1½ 31   55½ 78¾ (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 119 6.00 9% 10.60 7.83  
2  GIVE ME LIBERTY 2 12 107¼ 1110¼   98¾ 810 (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00 4.82  
1  TOOLPUSHER 1 10 72¾ 65¼   67½ 910½ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 15.00 50.22  
10  FLYING B B 10 7 96¼ 98¾   1010¼ 1012¾ (jones larr)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00 40.08  
7  PALHACO 7 8 119¼ 1214¼   1213¼ 1113¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00 20.98  
3  MIDCAT 3 9 51¾ 75¾   1110¾ 1214½ (wilkes ian )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00 45.47  
SCR  CAJUN FOOL               (ramirez m)ROCCO S 119 10.00    
SCR  PETINGAS TWIN               (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.