Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (3/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/6)-(3/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/6)-(4/1/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/6)-(4/1/8)-(7/2/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-2   WIN (4/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/8)-(4/1/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/8)-(4/1/8)-(4/1/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/8)-(7/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/1/8)-(7/2/3)-(4/5/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/2/3)-(7/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/2/3)-(7/2/3)-(7/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/2/3)-(4/5/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/2/3)-(4/5/6)-(1/8/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/6)-(4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/6)-(1/8/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/5/6)-(1/8/4)-(7/2/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-5   WIN (1/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/8/4)-(1/8/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/8/4)-(1/8/4)-(1/8/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/8/4)-(7/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/8/4)-(7/2/4)-(4/1/8) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-6   WIN (7/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/2/4)-(7/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/2/4)-(7/2/4)-(7/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/2/4)-(4/1/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/2/4)-(4/1/8)-(1/4/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/8)-(4/1/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/8)-(4/1/8)-(4/1/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/8)-(1/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/1/8)-(1/4/2)-(11/8/6/4/7) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-8   WIN (1/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/2)-(1/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/2)-(1/4/2)-(1/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/2)-(11/8/6/4/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-9   WIN (11/8/6/4/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/8/6/4/7)-(11/8/6/4/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/8/6/4/7)-(11/8/6/4/7)-(11/8/6/4/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  NEON DEION Oct19 Sep27 Sep03 Aug20   (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
2  MI OSCURO SECRETO Oct19 Sep15 Jun03 May03   (bahena isma)LAGUNES GABRIEL 118 15.00    
3  FAMILY FACTOR Oct26 Sep12 Jun16 Apr20   (colebrook )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  DUNPHY Nov05 Oct19 Oct07 Aug31 Aug13 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 1.00    
5  POINT AT YOU Oct06 Sep29 Aug26     (claire alexis)MCKEE J 118 10.00    
6  BETTERING Sep12 Jul12       (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 118 8.00 27% 2.70    
 
CD-2   11/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUARTERFLASH Oct24 Oct04 Aug16 Jul24 Jul05 (girten tim)MACHADO LUAN 120 2.00 19% 4.30    
2  GOSHEN Sep27 Aug16 Aug02 Jul12 Jun15 (esquivel )CORREA L 118 10.00    
SCR  SET THE PACE Oct17 Sep09 Jul31 Jun25 May28 (becker sc)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.50    
4  SHE DAZZLE Oct13 Sep15 Aug12 Jul09 Dec23 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.50 38% 1.60    
SCR  SIS BOOM BOB Oct25 Sep30 Sep14 Aug31 Aug12 (esqu)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 12.00    
6  WILL VIRGINIA DARE Nov01 Sep15 Sep02 Aug10 Jul21 (decker anna)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 118 20.00    
7  EVERYOTHERWON Oct01 Sep15 Aug23 Aug02 May11 (hill f)ELLIOTT JANE 120 8.00    
8  FAIRY CAKES (GB) Oct24 Oct13 Sep28 Sep18 Sep09 (mcentee paul)ASHTON GAVIN 120 10.00 14% 6.10    
 
CD-3   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDEN REIGN Oct13 Sep27 Aug29 Aug10 Jun10 (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 118 12.00    
2  GHENT Sep14 Aug30 Aug11 Jun20 Mar09 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.50 20% 4.00    
3  TROPIC STORM Nov01 Sep14 Jul21 Jun25 Jun04 (habeeb donald )ASHTON GAVIN 120 2.50 18% 4.60    
4  KENTUCKY BOURBON Sep30 Aug04 Jul01 Jun17 May20 (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.00    
5  ENJOYMENT Oct20 Dec16 Oct27 Oct05 Sep06 (gorostieta ci)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00    
6  SHOTSHELL Oct14 Sep07 Jul21 Jun18 May07 (shirer m)SANTANA JR 118 5.00    
7  HAROLD'S CLOUD Mar18 Jan29 Dec23 Nov23 Oct23 (scherer marian)ROCCO S 118 4.00 30% 2.30    
 
CD-4   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  WAMPUS KITTEN Sep23         (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00    
2  FASTA LAVISTA BABY Oct21 Sep27 Sep03 Aug05   (scherer marian)ROCCO S 119 3.50    
3  GOLD DEL MAR Oct27 Oct06 Sep20 Sep03 Jul23 (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 119 6.00    
4  JUST AN OPINION Apr26         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 39% 1.60    
5  DANCING NANCY Oct21 Aug20 Jul20     (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 15% 5.70    
6  CITY SHACK Oct25         (burdess terry)ORTIZ ALVIN 119 12.00 10% 8.60    
7  BLENHEIM BABY         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00    
8  THE BIG BANSHEE Sep23 Aug18       (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
 
CD-5   11/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FREE LOOK May13 Mar11 Nov04 Oct01 Sep04 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.80 40% 1.50    
SCR  EMPIRICAL VIEW Oct18 Sep02 Aug04 Jul09   (divito ja)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
SCR  OUR DOTSIE Oct18 Sep10 Aug06 Mar12 Sep14 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
4  HERINGTON ROCKET Mar26 Feb16 Oct14 Sep10 Jul23 (navarrete anna)MCKEE J 121 10.00 9% 10.60    
SCR  SAKE (FR) Oct11 Sep18 Aug24 May20 Apr13 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 12.00    
6  THE CLUB Oct05 Jul22 May20 Apr22 Mar26 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 15.00    
SCR  AROUND THE SUN Oct18 Apr14 Mar12 Oct28 Oct14 (arnold ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
8  BEST PERFORMER Oct01 Sep03 Jul15 Jun24 May03 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 23% 3.40    
9  TITUBA Oct01 Sep13 Jun29 Apr28 Mar12 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
SCR  MINT EDITION Oct18 Sep18 Jul22 Jun22 Jun02 (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 121 20.00    
SCR  STAR FORTRESS (IRE)         (devaux cheri)GEROUX FLORENT 121 10.00    
SCR  DANCE THE DAY AWAY Oct26 Oct04 Sep03 Aug15 Jul27 (decker anna)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 121 20.00    
SCR  STORM BAY Sep16 Aug05 Jun08 May06   (devaux cheri)CARROLL DECLAN 118 15.00    
SCR  ALYBAER Jan27         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00    
15  CONDONE Oct18 Sep09 Apr07 Mar09 Feb08 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
 
CD-6   11/15/2023 6270ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ETHICAL JUDGEMENT Sep21 Aug20 Jul15 Nov13 Oct20 (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 121 3.00    
2  ALLEGE Oct22 Sep17 Jul23 Jun25 May29 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 24% 3.10    
3  ICARUS Sep17 Aug12 Jun22 May25 May05 (simms j)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00    
4  SEARCH ENGINE Oct20 Aug12 May25 Feb28 Feb11 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 14% 6.10    
5  NAUTILUS (BRZ) Oct27 Sep09 Aug31 Jul21 Jul02 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00    
6  MAILMAN MONEY Oct19 Sep13 Aug06 Jun30 Jun04 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 10.00    
7  KEYSTONE FIELD Oct14 Aug06 Jul08 May19 May06 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 28% 2.50    
 
CD-7   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOVE SPELL Sep30 Jul22 Jun25 Jun03 Feb26 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 25% 3.10    
2  BOLT ABOVE Sep27 Sep14 Aug26 Jul31 Jun06 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
SCR  DAVID'S TUITION Oct20 Aug15 Jul18 Jun01   (baker james)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
4  LORD GRANTHAM Feb20 Jan29 Dec31 Nov26 Nov02 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 3.50 28% 2.60    
5  HARDY CHOICE Oct19 Sep17 Mar17 Jan07 Dec10 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00    
6  MIDWAY MIRACLE Sep14 Jun15 May21 Apr29 Apr16 (short tho)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
7  GOT THE BOB Nov07 Jun04 May20 May03 Feb10 (gonzalez re)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00    
8  VALE Oct14 Sep27 Aug20 Jul14 Jun29 (simms ma)SANTANA JR 120 4.00 20% 3.90    
 
CD-8   11/15/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FEARLESS SOLDIER Oct07 Sep03 Jul22 Jun17 Mar12 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 41% 1.40    
2  WIZARD OF WESTWOOD Sep03 Jul08 Jun11 May07 Apr02 (mccarthy m)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00 10% 8.80    
SCR  TOOFAREASTISWEST Oct07 Aug24 Jul28 Jun16 May20 (trombetta mi)GEROUX FLORENT 120 10.00    
4  REALLY GOOD Sep03 Jul15 Jun25 May14 Apr15 (maker michael )CHUAN MARTIN 118 5.00 25% 2.90    
5  RARIFIED FLAIR May29 Apr07 Mar25 Oct29 Oct09 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
SCR  OCEAN POINTE Sep30 Sep17 Aug04 Jul19 Jun17 (estvanko ric)RAMOS D 118 6.00    
7  KIGALI Oct28 Sep22 Aug30 Jul16 Jun24 (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 120 8.00    
8  QUADRA ISLAND Oct14 Aug18 Mar25 Jan28 Jan01 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
 
CD-9   11/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 2 ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOOLPUSHER Oct07         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 15.00    
2  GIVE ME LIBERTY         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00    
3  MIDCAT Sep22         (wilkes ia)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
4  SPIN THE BOULEVARD Oct13         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 119 6.00 9% 10.60    
5  GENO'S MYTH         (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
6  STORMY MESA Oct14         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 23% 3.30    
7  PALHACO         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  CHARLESTON Oct26         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 23% 3.30    
9  TIMING DIFFERENCE         (brown ch)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
10  FLYING B B         (jones la)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00    
11  CATALINA CRUSH Oct18 Sep14 Aug11     (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 25% 3.10    
12  ONE RED CENT Oct20 Oct01 Sep10 Aug27 Jul31 (jazdzewski)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
SCR  CAJUN FOOL Oct14 Sep08 Aug11     (ramirez m)ROCCO S 119 10.00    
SCR  PETINGAS TWIN         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.