Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 1 1 0 $8.36  
CD-2   Win (1/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 1 1 1 $6.76 $6.76 2.76
CD-3   Win (4/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $5.42 $5.42  
CD-4   Win (5/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 5 1 1 $3.24 $3.24  
CD-5   Win (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 1 1 0 $7.50  
CD-6   Win (1/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $5.76 $5.76  
CD-7   Win (10/6/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 0 $25.80  
CD-8   Win (6/4/11) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $4.98 $4.98  
CD-9   Win (12/7/8/1/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 11 1 0 $88.68  
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:243 :48 1:13 1:251   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SECRET POCKET 1 2 42 42 52½ 21½ 1¾ (peitz c)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 3.18  
2  MAN ON THE MOON 2 1 2nk 1nk 1½ 11½ 2¾ (damato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 4.50 3.52  
6  INDIAN GULCH 5 5 52½ 54 42½ 42 31½ (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.50 37% 1.70 1.85 S
4  BEST OF GREELEY 4 4 31 31½ 2½ 31½ 44¼ (morse randy )GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 2.26  
3  P H FACTOR 3 3 1nk 2nk 31 54½ 512¾ (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 121 6.00 30% 2.30 9.39  
SCR  TIGER MOON               (schultz lin)LEPAROUX R 121 2.00    
 
CD-2   11/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:222 :454 :573     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALTERED SHOT 1 2 11 1½   11½ 11½ (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.00 30% 2.30 2.38 W
2  DEALING JUSTICE 2 1 21 31½   42 21½ (mott riley)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 4.50 1.83  
6  FASHION RAGE 5 4 52 52½   31½ 31½ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 120 4.00 28% 2.50 7.84 S
4  BACKYARD MONEY 3 5 31 2½   21½ 43½ (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 8.00 16.12  
5  MEGAN'S CLARA 4 3 41½ 41½   55 58¾ (casse w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 1.54  
SCR  NEED SOME MONEY               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
 
CD-3   11/16/2023 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:241 :49 1:131 1:373   1:50   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  ALEXANDER HELIOS 4 1 11 1½ 12 12 12¼ (joseph saffi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 36% 1.80 1.71 W
1  BEN FRANKLIN 1 5 31½ 31½ 32 22 22¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50 20% 4.10 3.77 P
3  GAME KEEPER 3 2 42 41½ 22 46½ 36½ (lukas wayn)ASMUSSEN J 121 12.00 21.50  
5  TREBLE CLEF 5 4 21 2½ 42½ 36 46¾ (mott i)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.50 2.46  
2  TIZ WICKED STRONG 2 7 63½ 63 75¼ 56½ 57¼ (baker james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 5.00 9.23  
7  BEARINGS 7 6 74 73½ 65 67½ 615¼ (mott i)GARCIA MARTIN 121 6.00 11.96  
6  ICE TIME 6 3 52½ 52 54 77¾ 716½ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 15% 5.80 6.94  
 
CD-4   11/16/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:233 :481 1:124 1:39   1:454   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  NEOM BEACH 4 1 32 31 1nk 11½ 1¾ (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.50 40% 1.50 0.62 W
3  YES TO CHAMPAGNE 2 2 2½ 2nk 3½ 21½ 2¾ (wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 36% 1.80 2.20 P
1  FANTASTICAL 1 3 1½ 1nk 2nk 32 33¼ (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 9.17  
4  VOICE FROM ABOVE 3 5 43½ 42 44 46½ 410¾ (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00 6.17  
8  ADRASTEIA 5 4 54 54½ 512 516½ 526¼ (bogle fergus)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00 20.39  
SCR  MAGIC GATHERING               (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
SCR  ON THE NILE               (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
SCR  STEPHANIESWARRIOR               (capps a)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
SCR  LUZ DIVINA               (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00    
SCR  KISS BLUE               (mott riley)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
SCR  ITS SATISFACTUAL               (devaux cherie)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
SCR  WHIMSICALLY               (devaux cher)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50    
SCR  BUTTERFLY QUEEN               (maker j)CHUAN MARTIN 119 3.50    
SCR  FUNDAMENTALLY               (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
 
CD-5   11/16/2023 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:24 :482 1:124 1:373   1:44   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ST. ELMO 1 4 2½ 21 2nk 11 1¾ (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00 2.75  
6  INEXORABLE 5 5 53 32 32 41¼ 2¾ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 123 1.60 55% 0.80 3.27 P
3  HURRY HURRY 2 3 43 54 52¼ 21 31 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 1.80 19% 4.30 1.35 S
4  LUNA VIEJA 3 2 1½ 11 1nk 31 41¾ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 3.52  
5  WHAT'S UP DOC 4 1 31½ 42½ 42¼ 53¾ 53½ (ginter j)ASHTON GAVIN 121 6.00 14.08  
SCR  SOUTHERN CRUSH               (blair jordan)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
 
CD-6   11/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:214 :451 :572     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  ICICLES 3 3 1nk 13   16 19¾ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 122 2.50 28% 2.60 1.88 W
1  VICKI ROSE 1 7 31½ 23   26 29¾ (matejka pavel)BEJARANO R 122 3.50 48% 1.10 1.36 P
7  CRUSHED ICE 7 2 52¼ 45½   39 312¼ (quartarolo)SANTANA JR 122 3.00 3.45  
5  LADAN 5 5 63¼ 79½   511½ 414 (bogle fergus)ELLIOTT JANE 122 10.00 5% 19.00 34.36  
4  ITSABLINGTHING 4 1 41¾ 35   410 514½ (barrett roddi)PETERSON FERRIN 122 4.00 7.10  
6  ALWAYSGOTOTHEPARTY 6 6 73¼ 58   612 614½ (michael brian)CALLEJA ANDRES 112 12.00 29.21  
2  MARKET PROFILE 2 4 2nk 69½   714½ 723¼ (heath destin)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00 28.63  
SCR  DREAM ON STORMY               (winston fred)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 12.00    
 
CD-7   11/16/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:233 :472 1:121 1:374   1:441   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LEXA (FR) 2 5 76 63½ 3½ 2½ 11 (beckman wh)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00 11.90  
6  PIGALLE 5 2 11 11½ 1nk 1½ 21 (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 18% 4.40 2.93 P
2  LET'S DUET 1 9 912½ 910¾ 98½ 55½ 32¼ (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 121 12.00 17% 5.00 15.21 S
5  DEAR LADY 4 3 65 73¾ 64 33 43 (mcpeek kenn)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 5% 19.00 7.25  
8  QUEEN OF MISSOULA 7 8 88 86¾ 85½ 66 55 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00 77.32  
9  TOWER BRIDGE 8 4 21 21½ 74½ 87½ 612¼ (devaux cherie)GEROUX FLORENT 118 12.00 30.46  
10  POBLANO 9 6 42½ 32 2nk 44 714 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.80 43% 1.30 0.97  
7  HER LADYSHIP 6 7 54 53½ 53 98 816¾ (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00 36.94  
4  NEW BEAT 3 1 32 42½ 42½ 77 919¾ (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 7.34  
SCR  FLASHY LASS               (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 120 3.50    
 
CD-8   11/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:222 :451 :571     1:033   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  HIGH CLASS 2 2 11½ 11   12 11¾ (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 27% 2.70 1.49 W
7  CURRENT CLIMATE 4 1 21½ 21   22 21¾ (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 122 3.50 5.15  
6  LADY GOLDSTART 3 5 42 42   33½ 33½ (maker j)CHUAN MARTIN 120 2.50 35% 1.90 2.77 S
9  MINER'S QUEEN 5 3 52¼ 52½   56½ 46 (hernandez rey)BEJARANO R 120 20.00 21.68  
2  LAURA'S CHARM 1 4 31½ 32   43½ 56½ (kerrick lacy)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00 6.95  
11  TALES OF HOME 7 6 64¼ 64½   66¾ 66½ (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00 14% 6.10 4.01  
10  FRANGO ELECTRICO 6 7 77¾ 78   710¾ 715¼ (bahena)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 30.00 65.26  
SCR  AMERICAN STARLET               (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.00    
SCR  CORA PEARL               (brinkman brett)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
SCR  GRANATO               (beckman whitw)CANNON DECLAN 120 8.00    
SCR  TROUBLE MAKING               (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 20.00    
 
CD-9   11/16/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 2 F PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:223 :462 1:113     1:18   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  SING A LITTLE SONG 11 9 127¾ 97¼   21½ 1½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00 43.34  
9  UP THE CREEK 9 8 53¾ 31   11½ 2½ (cowans d)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 11.38  
8  SWEET MIMI 8 10 64¼ 64   43 37¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 14% 6.40 3.02 S
1  CLASSIC MYSTERY 1 12 117¾ 118¾   86¼ 47½ (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 8% 11.30 43.53  
12  CONTROLLED TEMPER 12 6 107¼ 53½   64 57½ (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 28% 2.60 1.49  
7  SISTER ELLA 7 3 2½ 1nk   32 69¼ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 4.00 24% 3.10 10.58  
5  IUKA MISS 5 7 96¼ 86¾   76 79¾ (stall m)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00 38.27  
2  SPIRITUAL LADY 2 5 1½ 2nk   53 812½ (sharp joe)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 5% 19.00 7.73  
4  MYDIXIELANDDELIGHT 4 2 85¾ 1210¼   99¼ 915¼ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 10.49  
6  WINDY WALK 6 11 74¾ 76½   1010¾ 1017½ (davis christop)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00 56.01  
10  MARCO SUNSET 10 1 4¾ 42   1111¼ 1122½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 17.23  
3  CONTRABBANDA 3 4 3½ 108¼   1216¼ 1233½ (servis c)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00 18.45  
SCR  TAPPIN INTO GENIUS               (leitch danie)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
SCR  YOU'RE FOREVER               (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.